A kockázat mint látens fogalom (Risk - A latent concept)

A kockázat statisztikai értelemben közvetlenül nem mérhető, azaz látens fogalom éppen úgy, mint a gazdasági fejlettség, a szervezettség vagy az intelligencia. Mi bennünk a közös? A kockázat is komplex fogalom, több mérhető tényezőt foglal magában, és bár sok tényezőjét mérjük, fel sem tételezzük, hogy pontos eredményt kapunk. Ebben a megközelítésben az elemző kezdettől fogva tudja, hogy hiányos az ismerete. Ezt Bélyácz [2011[ nyomán úgy is megfogalmazhatjuk: „A statisztikusok tudják, hogy valamit éppen nem tudnak.” / === / From statistical point of view risk, like economic development is a latent concept. Typically there is no one number which can explicitly estimate or project risk. Variance is used as a proxy in finance to measure risk. Other professions are using other concepts for risk. Underwriting is the most important step in insurance business to analyse exposure. Actuaries evaluate average claim size and the probability of claim to calculate risk. Bayesian credibility can be used to calculate insurance premium combining frequencies and empirical knowledge, as a prior. Different types of risks can be classified into a risk matrix to separate insurable risk. Only this category can be analysed by multivariate statistical methods, which are based on statistical data. Sample size and frequency of events are relevant not only in insurance, but in pension and investment decisions as well.

Gazdasági kórkép alulnézetből 2. rész (Syndrome of Hungarian Economy from Bottom-view - part 2.)

A magyar gazdaság új növekedési pályára állása a kilencvenes évek végére tehető, s ebben meghatározó szerepe volt a pótlólagos erőforrásként szolgáló külföldi működőtőke-befektetéseknek. A nemzetközi tőkeáramlás ezredfordulót követő módosulása (csökkenő volumen, változó irányultság) kedvezőtlenül érintette a hazai gazdaságot, aminek egyik következménye a beruházások csökkenése és a növekedési ütem lassulása, másik következménye viszont – a jövedelemkiáramlást semlegesítő hatás elmaradása miatt – a fizetési mérleg romlása. Ebben a helyzetben halaszthatatlanná vált az államháztartási egyensúlyromlás megállítása, illetve a gazdasági fejlődés új alapokra helyezése. A szerző elemzésében – a hazai versenyszektor eredményességi és vagyoni jellemzőinek értékelésével – azt szeretné jelezni, hogy az egyensúlytalansági állapot megszüntetése nem szorítkozhat az államháztartási rendszerre, vagyis az ország helyzetének stabilizálása, majd új növekedési pályára állás nem képzelhető el a gazdaság átfogó modernizációja nélkül. Vizsgálata a ténylegesen működő (343 ezer) hazai társas vállalkozás 2000–2008. évi pénzügyi beszámolóinak adataira épül. Álláspontja szerint a mintavétel nagysága ellensúlyozza az esetleges torzító hatásokat (lásd: helyenként előforduló kreatív beszámolók), így a vállalkozások mennyiségi gyarapodása, méret szerinti megoszlása, a gazdasági tevékenység jellege, a teljesítmények és eredmények alakulása, a vállalkozói vagyon módosulása megbízhatóan értékelhető, illetve a tapasztalatok alapján a korrekciós intézkedések igénye és azok tartalma is jól körvonalazható. Tanulmányát így ajánljuk a téma iránt érdeklődőknek, a versenyszektor szereplőinek, de leginkább a gazdaságpolitika formálóinak. _________ The economic performance during the transition period was characterized by the alternations of fulfilled hopes and unrealized expectations. The economic restructuring and changes in market relations took place during the first decade, while new – mostly foreign – investment groups entered on the new market. As a result the economy was stabilized and was put to a new growth path. But after the millennium the foreign investment based economy development strategy was no more adequate. The new engine for the growth should have been the domestic small and medium enterprise sector (SsME), but despite the subsidies this sector was not strengthened to take this role. The author – the researcher of BCE, and the ex-president of APpEH – analyses the characteristics of the domestic business demography, performance and effectiveness, based on the 2000–2008 annual financial statements of the business sector. In the author’s analysis – with assessment of the domestic business sector and financial performance characteristicst - he would like to point out that the imbalance can not be confined to the elimination of state government system, that is, the country’s situation to stabilize, and then post a new growth path is not conceivable without the modernization of the economy overall. In his view, the sample size outweighed the possible distortionary effects (see occurring in places of creative accounts), so the growth of business volume, size distribution, the nature of economic activity, the evolution of performance and results, a reliable assessment of changes in the business of property and the experience on the basis of the need for corrective action, and its contents are also well delineated. Sstudy it is recommended for those interested in the topic, the business sector actors, but most of the economic policy makers.

Effect of sampling effort and sampling frequency on the composition of the planktonic crustacean assemblage: a case study of the river Danube

Although numerous studies have focused on the seasonal dynamics of riverine zooplankton, little is known about its short-term variation. In order to examine the effects of sampling frequency and sampling effort, microcrustacean samples were collected at daily intervals between 13 June and 21 July of 2007 in a parapotamal side arm of the river Danube, Hungary. Samples were also taken at biweekly intervals from November 2006 to May 2008. After presenting the community dynamics, the effect of sampling effort was evaluated with two different methods; the minimal sample size was also estimated. We introduced a single index (potential dynamic information loss; to determine the potential loss of information when sampling frequency is reduced. The formula was calculated for the total abundance, densities of the dominant taxa, adult/larva ratios of copepods and for two different diversity measures. Results suggest that abundances may experience notable fluctuations even within 1 week, as do diversities and adult/larva ratios.

Coping with a diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease: A client and caregiver perspective

The purpose of this study was to examine how individuals and their caregivers cope with a diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease. The sample size consisted of six patients with Alzheimer's disease and seven caregivers. The caregivers included spouses and adult children. The study was conducted at an academic medical center in the South Florida area. Using a phenomenological approach, data were collected by audiotaped interviews. Data were analyzed following the seven steps of Colaizzi (1978).^ The results of the study indicated that clients experienced fear, social withdrawal, decreased self-esteem and a need for love and support. Caregivers experienced psychological strain, burden, lifestyle adjustments and sacrifice. Both clients and caregivers identified numerous strategies for coping with Alzheimer's disease. The findings reflect the need for a holistic approach to promoting the quality of life for patients and caregivers. ^

The relationship between self-esteem and job performance

The purpose of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis of the relationship between self-esteem and job performance. Overall, 49 studies were gathered and coded by their sample size, correlation estimate, and the reliability of the two measures being correlated. The data was processed using the interactive meta-analysis program called INTNL, which takes into account interactive effects between the artifacts (i.e., unreliability in the independent and dependent measures as well as sampling error). Analyses of four potential moderators were examined--type of self-esteem, the source of job performance, the type of setting and the type of self-esteem measures. Results indicated that the relationship between self-esteem and job performance is positive. However, there was only a weak support for moderating influences. Procedures to enhance employees' self-esteem are recommended. ^

Juror need for cognition and sensitivity to methodological flaws in expert evidence

Two studies investigated the influence of juror need for cognition on the systematic and heuristic processing of expert evidence. U.S. citizens reporting for jury duty in South Florida read a 15-page summary of a hostile work environment case containing expert testimony. The expert described a study she had conducted on the effects of viewing sexualized materials on men's behavior toward women. Certain methodological features of the expert's research varied across experimental conditions. In Study 1 (N = 252), the expert's study was valid, contained a confound, or included the potential for experimenter bias (internal validity) and relied on a small or large sample (sample size) of college undergraduates or trucking employees (ecological validity). When the expert's study included trucking employees, high need for cognition jurors in Study 1 rated the expert more credible and trustworthy than did low need for cognition jurors. Jurors were insensitive to variations in the study's internal validity or sample size. Juror ratings of plaintiff credibility, plaintiff trustworthiness, and study quality were positively correlated with verdict. In Study 2 (N = 162), the expert's published or unpublished study (general acceptance) was either valid or lacked an appropriate control group (internal validity) and included a sample of college undergraduates or trucking employees (ecological validity). High need for cognition jurors in Study 2 found the defendant liable more often and evaluated the expert evidence more favorably when the expert's study was internally valid than when an appropriate control group was missing. Low need for cognition jurors did not differentiate between the internally valid and invalid study. Variations in the study's general acceptance and ecological validity did not affect juror judgments. Juror ratings of expert and plaintiff credibility, plaintiff trustworthiness, and study quality were positively correlated with verdict. The present research demonstrated that the need for cognition moderates juror sensitivity to expert evidence quality and that certain message-related heuristics influence juror judgments when ability or motivation to process systematically is low. ^

The role of disturbance and resource availability in structuring plant communities

Disturbances alter competitive hierarchies by reducing populations and altering resource regimes. The interaction between disturbance and resource availability may strongly influence the structure of plant communities, as observed in the recolonization of seagrass beds in outer Florida Bay that were denuded by sea-urchin overgrazing. There is no consensus concerning the interaction between disturbance and resource availability on competition intensity (CI). On the other hand, species diversity is dependent on both factors. Peaks in species diversity have been observed to occur when both resource availability and disturbance intensity are high, thus implying that CI is low. Based on this supposition of previous models, I presented the resource-disturbance hypothesis as a graphical model to make predictions of CI as a function of both disturbance intensity and the availability of a limiting resource. The predictions of this model were tested in two experiments within a seagrass community in south Florida, in which transplants of Halodule wrightii were placed into near-monocultures of Syringodium filiforme in a full-factorial array. In the first experiment, two measures of relative CI were calculated based on the changes in the short-shoot number (SS) and of rhizome length (RHL) on the transplants. Both light and disturbance were identified as important factors, though the interaction between light * disturbance was not significant. Relative CISS ranged between 0.2 and 1.0 for the high light and high disturbance treatments and the relative CIRHL < 0 for the same treatments, though results were not significantly different due to high variability and low sample size. These results, including a contour schematic using six data points from the different treatment combinations, preliminarily suggests that the resource-disturbance hypothesis may be used may be used as a next step in developing our understanding of the mechanisms involved in structuring plant communities. Furthermore, the focus of the model is on the outcome of CI, which may be a useful predictor of changes in species diversity. Further study is needed to confirm the results of this study and validate the usefulness of this model in other systems. ^

The effect of an enriched learning community on success and retention in chemistry courses

Since the mid-1990s, the United States has experienced a shortage of scientists and engineers, declining numbers of students choosing these fields as majors, and low student success and retention rates in these disciplines. Learning theorists, educational researchers, and practitioners believe that learning environments can be created so that an improvement in the numbers of students who complete courses successfully could be attained (Astin, 1993; Magolda & Terenzini, n.d.; O'Banion, 1997). Learning communities do this by providing high expectations, academic and social support, feedback during the entire educational process, and involvement with faculty, other students, and the institution (Ketcheson & Levine, 1999). ^ A program evaluation of an existing learning community of science, mathematics, and engineering majors was conducted to determine the extent to which the program met its goals and was effective from faculty and student perspectives. The program provided laptop computers, peer tutors, supplemental instruction with and without computer software, small class size, opportunities for contact with specialists in selected career fields, a resource library, and Peer-Led Team Learning. During the two years the project has existed, success, retention, and next-course continuation rates were higher than in traditional courses. Faculty and student interviews indicated there were many affective accomplishments as well. ^ Success and retention rates for one learning community class ( n = 27) and one traditional class (n = 61) in chemistry were collected and compared using Pearson chi square procedures ( p = .05). No statistically significant difference was found between the two groups. Data from an open-ended student survey about how specific elements of their course experiences contributed to success and persistence were analyzed by coding the responses and comparing the learning community and traditional classes. Substantial differences were found in their perceptions about the lecture, the lab, other supports used for the course, contact with other students, helping them reach their potential, and their recommendation about the course to others. Because of the limitation of small sample size, these differences are reported in descriptive terms. ^

A comparison of content-based and context-based teaching on ninth-grade mathematics achievement

The purpose of this study was to determine if an experimental context-based delivery format for mathematics would be more effective than a traditional model for increasing the performance in mathematics of at-risk students in a public high school of choice, as evidenced by significant gains in achievement on the standards-based Mathematics subtest of the FCAT and final academic grades in Algebra I. The guiding rationale for this approach is captured in the Secretary's Commission on Achieving Necessary Skills (SCANS) report of 1992 that resulted in school-to-work initiatives (United States Department of Labor). Also, the charge for educational reform has been codified at the state level as Educational Accountability Act of 1971 (Florida Statutes, 1995) and at the national level as embodied in the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001. A particular focus of educational reform is low performing, at-risk students. ^ This dissertation explored the effects of a context-based curricular reform designed to enhance the content of Algebra I content utilizing a research design consisting of two delivery models: a traditional content-based course; and, a thematically structured, content-based course. In this case, the thematic element was business education as there are many advocates in career education who assert that this format engages students who are often otherwise disinterested in mathematics in a relevant, SCANS skills setting. The subjects in each supplementary course were ninth grade students who were both low performers in eighth grade mathematics and who had not passed the eighth grade administration of the standards-based FCAT Mathematics subtest. The sample size was limited to two groups of 25 students and two teachers. The site for this study was a public charter school. Student-generated performance data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. ^ Results indicated that contrary to the beliefs held by many, contextual presentation of content did not cause significant gains in either academic performance or test performance for those in the experimental treatment group. Further, results indicated that there was no meaningful difference in performance between the two groups. ^

Prenatal environmental exposure and neurodevelopmentally important gene expression in malformed brain tissue from pediatric intractable epilepsy patients

The primary objective of this proposal was to determine whether mitochondrial oxidative stress and variation in a particular mtDNA lineage contribute to the risk of developing cortical dysplasia and are potential contributing factors in epileptogenesis in children. The occurrence of epilepsy in children is highly associated with malformations of cortical development (MCD). It appears that MCD might arise from developmental errors due to environmental exposures in combination with inherited variation in response to environmental exposures and mitochondrial function. Therefore, it is postulated that variation in a particular mtDNA lineage of children contributes to the effects of mitochondrial DNA damage on MCD phenotype. Quantitative PCR and dot blot were used to examine mitochondrial oxidative damage and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the mitochondrial genome in brain tissue from 48 pediatric intractable epilepsy patients from Miami Children’s Hospital and 11 control samples from NICHD Brain and Tissue Bank for Developmental Disorders. Epilepsy patients showed higher mtDNA copy number compared to normal health subjects (controls). Oxidative mtDNA damage was lower in non-neoplastic but higher in neoplastic epilepsy patients compared to controls. There was a trend of lower mtDNA oxidative damage in the non-neoplastic (MCD) patients compared to controls, yet, the reverse was observed in neoplastic (MCD and Non-MCD) epilepsy patients. The presence of mtDNA SNP and haplogroups did not show any statistically significant relationships with epilepsy phenotypes. However, SNPs G9804A and G9952A were found in higher frequencies in epilepsy samples. Logistic regression analysis showed no relationship between mtDNA oxidative stress, mtDNA copy number, mitochondrial haplogroups and SNP variations with epilepsy in pediatric patients. The levels of mtDNA copy number and oxidative mtDNA damage and the SNPs G9952A and T10010C predicted neoplastic epilepsy, however, this was not significant due to a small sample size of pediatric subjects. Findings of this study indicate that an increase in mtDNA content may be compensatory mechanisms for defective mitochondria in intractable epilepsy and brain tumor. Further validation of these findings related to mitochondrial genotypes and mitochondrial dysfunction in pediatric epilepsy and MCD may lay the ground for the development of new therapies and prevention strategies during embryogenesis.

Medical advice, diabetes self-management, and health outcomes of a multi-ethnic population from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007--2008

Diabetes self-management, an essential component of diabetes care, includes weight control practices and requires guidance from providers. Minorities are likely to have less access to quality health care than White non-Hispanics (WNH) (American College of Physicians-American Society of Internal Medicine, 2000). Medical advice received and understood may differ by race/ethnicity as a consequence of the patient-provider communication process; and, may affect diabetes self-management. ^ This study examined the relationships among participants’ report of: (1) medical advice given; (2) diabetes self-management, and; (3) health outcomes for Mexican-Americans (MA) and Black non-Hispanics (BNH) as compared to WNH (reference group) using data available through the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for the years 2007–2008. This study was a secondary, single point analysis. Approximately 30 datasets were merged; and, the quality and integrity was assured by analysis of frequency, range and quartiles. The subjects were extracted based on the following inclusion criteria: belonging to either the MA, BNH or WNH categories; 21 years or older; responded yes to being diagnosed with diabetes. A final sample size of 654 adults [MA (131); BNH (223); WNH (300)] was used for the analyses. The findings revealed significant statistical differences in medical advice reported given. BNH [OR = 1.83 (1.16, 2.88), p = 0.013] were more likely than WNH to report being told to reduce fat or calories. Similarly, BNH [OR = 2.84 (1.45, 5.59), p = 0.005] were more likely than WNH to report that they were told to increase their physical activity. Mexican-Americans were less likely to self-monitor their blood glucose than WNH [OR = 2.70 (1.66, 4.38), p<0.001]. There were differences among ethnicities for reporting receiving recent diabetes education. Black, non-Hispanics were twice as likely to report receiving diabetes education than WNH [OR = 2.29 (1.36, 3.85), p = 0.004]. Medical advice reported given and ethnicity/race, together, predicted several health outcomes. Having recent diabetes education increased the likelihood of performing several diabetes self-management behaviors, independent of race. ^ These findings indicate a need for patient-provider communication and care to be assessed for effectiveness and, the importance of ongoing diabetes education for persons with diabetes.^

Achievement of generic baccalaureate student nurses using computer -assisted instruction simulations during a nursing review course

The use of computer assisted instruction (CAI) simulations as an instructional strategy provides nursing students with a critical thinking approach for evaluating risks and benefits and choosing correct alternatives in "safe" patient care situations. It was hypothesized that using CAI simulations during an upper level nursing review course would have a positive effect on the students' posttest scores. Subjects (n = 36) were senior nursing students enrolled in a nursing review course in an undergraduate baccalaureate program. A limitation of the study was the small sample size. The study employed a modified group experimental design using the t test for independent samples. The group who received the CAI simulations during the physiological system review demonstrated a significant increase (p $<$.01) in the posttest score mean when compared to the lecture-discussion group score mean. There was no significant difference between high and low clinical grade point average (GPA) students in the CAI and lecture-discussion groups and their score means on the posttest. However, score mean differences of the low clinical GPA students showed a greater increase for the CAI group than the lecture-discussion group. There was no significant difference between the groups in their system content subscore means on the exit examination completed three weeks later. It was concluded that CAI simulations are as effective as lecture-discussion in assisting upper level students to process information for clinical decision making. CAI simulations can be considered as an instructional strategy to supplement or replace lecture content during a review course, allowing more efficient use of faculty time. It is recommended that the study be repeated using a larger sample size. Further investigations are recommended in comparing the effectiveness of computer software formats and various instructional strategies for other learning situations and student populations. ^

A comparison of the self -esteem of freshman community college students enrolled in remedial and regular academic programs

This study examined relationships among self-esteem, remedial academic placement, ethnicity, gender, and enrollment status, using a nonexperimental, ex post facto research design. Participants were 113 freshman community college students attending Broward Community College in South Florida. The Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory (Adult Form) was used to measure the self-esteem of the participants. The results of this study indicate a significant difference between the mean self-esteem levels of the students enrolled in remedial academic classes (m = 66.08) and those enrolled in regular academic classes (m = 73.97). An independent samples t-test at the.05 significance level indicated that regular students were found to have higher levels of self-esteem than remedial students (t(112) = 2.14, p =.03). Two-way analyses of variance of placement status by ethnicity, of placement status by gender, and of placement status by enrollment status on self-esteem were also conducted. Interactions between placement status and the other factors were not found to be significant (p $>$.05). However, a significant main effect for ethnicity was found (p $<$.05). The results indicated that white students had a mean self-esteem level (m = 75.30) significantly higher than non-white students (m = 62.76, p =.002).^ The results of this study suggests that many community college students have problems related to self-esteem. Further research should be conducted on remedial and minority college students using a larger sample size and additional variables, such as socio-economic status. ^

The relationship of culturally responsive instruction and the reading comprehension and attitude of struggling urban adolescent readers

Culturally responsive instruction refers to the identification of relevant cultural aspects of students' lives and infusion of these into the curriculum. This instructional approach assumes that a culturally appropriate curriculum can potentially motivate, engage, and lead students to higher rates of achievement. This quasi-experimental study (N=44) investigated the relationship of culturally responsive instruction and the reading comprehension and attitude of struggling urban adolescent readers. The study incorporated the use of culturally responsive instruction using culturally relevant literature (CRL), the Bluford Series Novels, as authentic texts of instruction. Participants were seventh grade reading students at a Title I middle school in South Florida. After a baseline period, two different classes were taught for 8 weeks using different methods. One class formed the experimental group ( n=22) and the other class formed the comparison group (n =22). The CRI curriculum for the experimental group embraced the socio-cultural perspective through the use of small discussion groups in which students read and constructed meaning with peers through interaction with the Bluford Series Novels; gave written responses to multiple strategies according to SCRAP - Summarize, Connect, Reflect, Ask Questions, Predict; responded to literal and inferential questions, while at the same time validating their responses through evidence from the text. The Read XL (basal reader) curriculum of the comparison group utilized a traditional form of instruction which incorporated the reading of passages followed by responses to comprehension questions, and teacher-led whole group discussion. The main sources of data were collected from the Gates-MacGinitie Reading Tests, the Florida Assessments for Instruction in Reading (FAIR), and the Rhody Secondary Reading Attitude Assessment. Statistical analyses were performed using Repeated Measures ANOVAs. Findings from the study revealed that the experimental participants' reading attitudes and FAIR comprehension scores increased when compared to the comparison group. Overall, the results from the study revealed that culturally responsive instruction can potentially foster reading comprehension and a more positive attitude towards reading. However, a replication of this study in other settings with a larger, more randomized sample size and a greater ethnic variation is needed in order to make full generalizations.

Interval and Point Estimators for the Location Parameter of the Three-Parameter Lognormal Distribution

The three-parameter lognormal distribution is the extension of the two-parameter lognormal distribution to meet the need of the biological, sociological, and other fields. Numerous research papers have been published for the parameter estimation problems for the lognormal distributions. The inclusion of the location parameter brings in some technical difficulties for the parameter estimation problems, especially for the interval estimation. This paper proposes a method for constructing exact confidence intervals and exact upper confidence limits for the location parameter of the three-parameter lognormal distribution. The point estimation problem is discussed as well. The performance of the point estimator is compared with the maximum likelihood estimator, which is widely used in practice. Simulation result shows that the proposed method is less biased in estimating the location parameter. The large sample size case is discussed in the paper.