North Atlantic and North Sea climate change: curl up, shut down, NAO and ocean colour

The strength of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) (based on sea-surface elevation sloped derived from altimeter data) is correlated with westerly winds (based on North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] Index data over a nine year period [1992-2002] with 108 monthly values). The data time window includes the major change in climate forcing over the last 100 years (1995 to 1996). It is shown that the NAO Index can be used for early earning of system failure for the NAC. The correlation response or early warning time scale for western Europe and south England is six months. The decay scale for the NAC and Subtropical Gyre circulation is estimated as three years. Longer period altimeter elevation/circulation changes are discussed. The sea-surface temperature (SST) response of the North Sea to negative and positive NAO conditions is examined. The overall temperature response for the central North Sea to NAO index forcing, reflecting wind induced inflow, shelf circulation and local climate forcing, is similar to 5 months. In years with strong North Atlantic winter wind induced inflow, under marked NAO positive conditions, mean temperatures ( similar to 10.5 degree C) are about 1 degree C warmer than under negative conditions. In 1996 under extreme negative winter NAO conditions, the North Sea circulation stopped, conditions near the Dogger Bank became more continentally influenced and the winter (March) temperature fell to 3.1 degree C whereas in 1995 under NAO positive winter conditions the minimum temperature was 6.4 degree C (February). Seasonal advance of North Atlantic and North Sea temperature is derived in relation to temperature change. Temperature change and monthly NAO Index are discussed with respect to phytoplankton blooms, chlorophyll-a measurements, ocean colour data and the anomalous north-eastern Atlantic 2002 spring/summer bloom SeaWiFS chlorophyll concentrations.

Structure of phytoplankton (Continuous Plankton Recorder and SeaWiFS) and impact of climate in the Northwest Atlantic Shelves

All marine organisms are affected to some extent by the movement and thermal properties of oceanic currents. However phytoplankton, because of its small size is most directly coupled to the physical environment. The intense hydrodynamic activity observed in the Northwest Atlantic Shelves Province makes this region especially intriguing from the point of view of physical-biological interactions. In the present work, remote sensed data of Sea Surface Height (SSH) anomalies, Sea-surface chlorophyll a concentrations (SeaWiFS), and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are used to complement the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey that continuously sampled a route between Norfolk (Virginia, USA; 39° N, 71° W) and Argentia (Newfoundland; 47° N, 54° W) over the period 1995–1998. Over this period, we examined physical structures (i.e. SST and SSH) and climatic forcing associated with space-time phytoplankton structure. Along this route, the phytoplankton structures were mainly impacted by the changes in surface flow along the Scotian Shelf rather than significantly influenced by the mesoscale features of the Gulf Stream. These changes in water mass circulation caused a drop in temperature and salinity along the Scotian Shelf that induced changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton abundance.

Assessing the environmental consequences of CO2 leakage from geological CCS: Generating evidence to support environmental risk assessment

At the start of the industrial revolution (circa 1750) the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) was around 280 ppm. Since that time the burning of fossil fuel, together with other industrial processes such as cement manufacture and changing land use, has increased this value to 400 ppm, for the first time in over 3 million years. With CO2 being a potent greenhouse gas, the consequence of this rise for global temperatures has been dramatic, and not only for air temperatures. Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has warmed by 0.4–0.8 °C during the last century, although regional differences are evident (IPCC, 2007). This rise in atmospheric CO2 levels and the resulting global warming to some extent has been ameliorated by the oceanic uptake of around one quarter of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Sabine et al., 2004). Initially this was thought to be having little or no impact on ocean chemistry due to the capacity of the ocean’s carbonate buffering system to neutralise the acidity caused when CO2 dissolves in seawater. However, this assumption was challenged by Caldeira and Wickett (2005) who used model predictions to show that the rate at which carbonate buffering can act was far too slow to moderate significant changes to oceanic chemistry over the next few centuries. Their model predicted that since pre-industrial times, ocean surface water pH had fallen by 0.1 pH unit, indicating a 30% increase in the concentration of H+ ions. Their model also showed that the pH of surface waters could fall by up to 0.4 units before 2100, driven by continued and unabated utilisation of fossil fuels. Alongside increasing levels of dissolved CO2 and H+ (reduced pH) an increase in bicarbonate ions together with a decrease in carbonate ions occurs. These chemical changes are now collectively recognised as “ocean acidification”. Concern now stems from the knowledge that concentrations of H+, CO2, bicarbonate and carbonate ions impact upon many important physiological processes vital to maintaining health and function in marine organisms. Additionally, species have evolved under conditions where the carbonate system has remained relatively stable for millions of years, rendering them with potentially reduced capacity to adapt to this rapid change. Evidence suggests that, whilst the impact of ocean acidification is complex, when considered alongside ocean warming the net effect on the health and productivity of the oceans will be detrimental.