Summer drought in northern midlatitudes in a time-dependent CO2 climate experiment

A time-dependent climate-change experiment with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model has been used to study changes in the occurrence of drought in summer in southern Europe and central North America. In both regions, precipitation and soil moisture are reduced in a climate of greater atmospheric carbon dioxide. A detailed investigation of the hydrology of the model shows that the drying of the soil comes about through an increase in evaporation in winter and spring, caused by higher temperatures and reduced snow cover, and a decrease in the net input of water in summer. Evaporation is reduced in summer because of the drier soil, but the reduction in precipitation is larger. Three extreme statistics are used to define drought, namely the frequency of low summer precipitation, the occurrence of long dry spells, and the probability of dry soil. The last of these is arguably of the greatest practical importance, but since it is based on soil moisture, of which there are very few observations, the authors’ simulation of it has the least confidence. Furthermore, long time series for daily observed precipitation are not readily available from a sufficient number of stations to enable a thorough evaluation of the model simulation, especially for the frequency of long dry spells, and this increases the systematic uncertainty of the model predictions. All three drought statistics show marked increases owing to the sensitivity of extreme statistics to changes in their distributions. However, the greater likelihood of long dry spells is caused by a tendency in the character of daily rainfall toward fewer events, rather than by the reduction in mean precipitation. The results should not be taken as firm predictions because extreme statistics for small regions cannot be calculated reliably from the output of the current generation of GCMs, but they point to the possibility of large increases in the severity of drought conditions as a consequence of climate change caused by increased CO2.

The climate response to CO2 of the Hadley Centre coupled AOGCM with and without flux adjustment

Coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models have a tendency to drift away from a realistic climatology. The modelled climate response to an increase of CO2 concentration may be incorrect if the simulation of the current climate has significant errors, so in many models, including ours, the drift is counteracted by applying prescribed fluxes of heat and fresh water at the ocean‐atmosphere interface in addition to the calculated surface exchanges. Since the additional fluxes do not have a physical basis, the use of this technique of “flux adjustment” itself introduces some uncertainty in the simulated response to increased CO2. We find that the global‐average temperature response of our model to CO2 increasing at 1% per year is about 30% less without flux adjustment than with flux adjustment. The geographical patterns of the response are similar, indicating that flux adjustment is not causing any gross distortion. The reduced size of the response is due to more effective vertical transport of heat into the ocean, and a somewhat smaller climate sensitivity. Although the response in both cases lies within the generally accepted range for the climate sensitivity, systematic uncertainties of this size are clearly undesirable, and the best strategy for future development is to improve the climate model in order to reduce the need for flux adjustment.

Changes to Indian Ocean subantarctic mode water in a coupled climate model as CO2 forcing increases

Subantarctic mode water (SAMW) has been shown to be a good indicator of anthropogenic climate change in coupled climate models. SAMW in a coupled climate model and the response of modeled SAMW to increasing CO2 are examined in detail. How SAMW adjusts from climatological values toward a new equilibrium in the coupled model, with different climatological temperature and salinity properties, is shown. The combined formation rate of SAMW and Antarctic intermediate water is calculated as approximately 18 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, slightly lower than climatological values would suggest. When forced with increasing CO2, SAMW is produced at a similar rate but at lower densities. This result suggests that the rate of heat uptake in this part of the ocean will be unchanged by anthropogenic forcing. The important signal in the response of SAMW is the shift to colder and fresher values on isopycnals that is believed to be related to changes in thermodynamic surface forcing. It is shown that, given uniform forcing, SAMW is expected to enhance the signal relative to other water masses. Independent increases in surface heating or freshwater forcing can produce changes similar to those observed, but the two different types of forcing are distinguishable using separate forcing experiments, hodographs, and passive anomaly tracers. The changes in SAMW forced by increasing CO2 are dominated by surface heating, but changes to freshwater fluxes are also important.

The influence of carbon surface oxygen groups on Dubinin–Astakhov equation parameters calculated from CO2 adsorption isotherm

We present the results of a systematic study of the influence of carbon surface oxidation on Dubinin–Astakhov isotherm parameters obtained from the fitting of CO2 adsorption data. Using GCMC simulations of adsorption on realistic VPC models differing in porosity and containing the most frequently occurring carbon surface functionalities (carboxyls, hydroxyls and carbonyls) and their mixtures, it is concluded that the maximum adsorption calculated from the DA model is not strongly affected by the presence of oxygen groups. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of the remaining two parameters of this model i.e. the heterogeneity parameter (n) and the characteristic energy of adsorption (E0). Since from the latter the pore diameters of carbons are usually calculated, by inverse-type relationships, it is concluded that they are questionable for carbons containing surface oxides, especially carboxyls.

Commuting, CO2 and the location of offices

This paper investigates the extent to which office activity contributes to travel-related CO2 emission. Using ‘end-user’ figures[1], travel accounts for 32% of UK CO2 emission (Commission for Integrated Transport, 2007) and commuting and business travel accounts for a fifth of transport-related CO2 emissions, equating to 6.4% of total UK emissions (Building Research Establishment, 2000). Figures from the Department for Transport (2006) report that 70% of commuting trips were made by car, accounting for 73% of all commuting miles travelled. In assessing the environmental performance of an office building, the paper questions whether commuting and business travel-related CO2 emission is being properly assessed. For example, are office buildings in locations that are easily accessible by public transport being sufficiently rewarded? The de facto method for assessing the environmental performance of office buildings in the UK is the Building Research Establishment’s Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM). Using data for Bristol, this paper examines firstly whether BREEAM places sufficient weight on travel-related CO2 emission in comparison with building operation-related CO2 emission, and secondly whether the methodology for assigning credits for travel-related CO2 emission efficiency is capable of discerning intra-urban differences in location such as city centre and out-of-town. The results show that, despite CO2 emission per worker from building operation and travel being comparable, there is a substantial difference in the credit-weighting allocated to each. Under the current version of BREEAM for offices, only a maximum of 4% of the available credits can be awarded for ensuring the office location is environmentally sustainable. The results also show that all locations within the established city centre of Bristol will receive maximum BREEAM credits. Given the parameters of the test there is little to distinguish one city centre location from another and out of town only one office location receives any credits. It would appear from these results that the assessment method is not able to discern subtle differences in the sustainability of office locations

Belowground interactive effects of elevated CO2, plant diversity and earthworms in grassland microcosms

The potential interactive effects of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and plant diversity loss on the functioning of belowground systems are still poorly understood. Using a microcosm greenhouse approach with assembled grassland plant communities of different diversity (1, 4 and 8 species), we explored the interactive effects between plant species richness and elevated CO2 (ambient and + 200 p.p.m.v. CO2) on earthworms and microbial biomass. We hypothesised that the beneficial effect of increasing plant species richness on earthworm performance and microbial biomass will be modified by elevated CO2 through impacts on belowground organic matter inputs, soil water availability and nitrogen availability. We found higher earthworm biomass in eight species mixtures under elevated CO2, and higher microbial biomass under elevated CO2 in four and eight species mixtures if earthworms were present. The results suggest that plant driven changes in belowground organic matter inputs, soil water availability and nitrogen availability explain the interactive effects of CO2 and plant diversity on the belowground compartment. The interacting mechanisms by which elevated CO2 modified the impact of plant diversity on earthworms and microorganisms are discussed.

Spatial and temporal effects of free-air CO2 enrichment (POPFACE) on leaf growth, cell expansion and cell production in a closed canopy of poplar

Leaf expansion in the fast-growing tree,Populus × euramericana was stimulated by elevated [CO2] in a closed-canopy forest plantation, exposed using a free air CO2 enrichment technique enabling long-term experimentation in field conditions. The effects of elevated [CO2] over time were characterized and related to the leaf plastochron index (LPI), and showed that leaf expansion was stimulated at very early (LPI, 0–3) and late (LPI, 6–8) stages in development. Early and late effects of elevated [CO2] were largely the result of increased cell expansion and increased cell production, respectively. Spatial effects of elevated [CO2] were also marked and increased final leaf size resulted from an effect on leaf area, but not leaf length, demonstrating changed leaf shape in response to [CO2]. Leaves exhibited a basipetal gradient of leaf development, investigated by defining seven interveinal areas, with growth ceasing first at the leaf tip. Interestingly, and in contrast to other reports, no spatial differences in epidermal cell size were apparent across the lamina, whereas a clear basipetal gradient in cell production rate was found. These data suggest that the rate and timing of cell production was more important in determining leaf shape, given the constant cell size across the leaf lamina. The effect of elevated [CO2] imposed on this developmental gradient suggested that leaf cell production continued longer in elevated [CO2] and that basal increases in cell production rate were also more important than altered cell expansion for increased final leaf size and altered leaf shape in elevated [CO2].

Long-term acclimation of leaf production, development, longevity and quality following 3 yr exposure to free-air CO2 enrichment during canopy closure in Populus

The effects of elevated CO2 on leaf development in three genotypes of Populus were investigated during canopy closure, following exposure to elevated CO2 over 3 yr using free-air enrichment.• Leaf quality was altered such that nitrogen concentration per unit d. wt (Nmass) declined on average by 22 and 13% for sun and shade leaves, respectively, in elevated CO2. There was little evidence that this was the result of ‘dilution’ following accumulation of nonstructural carbohydrates. Most likely, this was the result of increased leaf thickness. Specific leaf area declined in elevated CO2 on average by 29 and 5% for sun and shade leaves, respectively.• Autumnal senescence was delayed in elevated CO2 with a 10% increase in the number of days at which 50% leaf loss occurred in elevated as compared with ambient CO2.• These data suggest that changes in leaf quality may be predicted following long-term acclimation of fast-growing forest trees to elevated CO2, and that canopy longevity may increase, with important implications for forest productivity.

The transcriptome of Populus in elevated CO2

The consequences of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide for long-term adaptation of forest ecosystems remain uncertain, with virtually no studies undertaken at the genetic level. A global analysis using cDNA microarrays was conducted following 6 yr exposure of Populus × euramericana (clone I-214) to elevated [CO2] in a FACE (free-air CO2 enrichment) experiment.• Gene expression was sensitive to elevated [CO2] but the response depended on the developmental age of the leaves, and < 50 transcripts differed significantly between different CO2 environments. For young leaves most differentially expressed genes were upregulated in elevated [CO2], while in semimature leaves most were downregulated in elevated [CO2].• For transcripts related only to the small subunit of Rubisco, upregulation in LPI 3 and downregulation in LPI 6 leaves in elevated CO2 was confirmed by anova. Similar patterns of gene expression for young leaves were also confirmed independently across year 3 and year 6 microarray data, and using real-time RT–PCR.• This study provides the first clues to the long-term genetic expression changes that may occur during long-term plant response to elevated CO2.

Stomatal conductance and not stomatal density determines the long-term reduction in leaf transpiration of poplar in elevated CO2

Using a free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiment, poplar trees (Populus · euramericana clone I214) were exposed to either ambient or elevated [CO2] from planting, for a 5-year period during canopy development, closure, coppice and re-growth. In each year, measurements were taken of stomatal density (SD, number mm2) and stomatal index (SI, the proportion of epidermal cells forming stomata). In year 5, measurements were also taken of leaf stomatal conductance (gs, lmol m2 s1), photosynthetic CO2 fixation (A, mmol m2 s1), instantaneous water-use efficiency (A/E) and the ratio of intercellular to atmospheric CO2 (Ci:Ca). Elevated [CO2] caused reductions in SI in the first year, and in SD in the first 2 years, when the canopy was largely open. In following years, when the canopy had closed, elevated [CO2] had no detectable effects on stomatal numbers or index. In contrast, even after 5 years of exposure to elevated [CO2], gs was reduced, A/E was stimulated, and Ci:Ca was reduced relative to ambient [CO2]. These outcomes from the long-term realistic field conditions of this forest FACE experiment suggest that stomatal numbers (SD and SI) had no role in determining the improved instantaneous leaf-level efficiency of water use under elevated [CO2]. We propose that altered cuticular development during canopy closure may partially explain the changing response of stomata to elevated [CO2], although the mechanism for this remains obscure.

Adaptation of tree growth to elevated CO2: quantitative trait loci for biomass in Populus

Information on the genetic variation of plant response to elevated CO2 (e[CO2]) is needed to understand plant adaptation and to pinpoint likely evolutionary response to future high atmospheric CO2 concentrations.• Here, quantitative trait loci (QTL) for above- and below-ground tree growth were determined in a pedigree – an F2 hybrid of poplar (Populus trichocarpa and Populus deltoides), following season-long exposure to either current day ambient CO2 (a[CO2]) or e[CO2] at 600 µl l−1, and genotype by environment interactions investigated.• In the F2 generation, both above- and below-ground growth showed a significant increase in e[CO2]. Three areas of the genome on linkage groups I, IX and XII were identified as important in determining above-ground growth response to e[CO2], while an additional three areas of the genome on linkage groups IV, XVI and XIX appeared important in determining root growth response to e[CO2].• These results quantify and identify genetic variation in response to e[CO2] and provide an insight into genomic response to the changing environment

Guanine specific binding at a DNA junction formed by d[CG(5-BrU)ACG]2 with a topoisomerase poison in the presence of Co2+Ions†,‡

The structure of the duplex d[CG(5-BrU)ACG]2 bound to 9-bromophenazine-4-carboxamide has been solved through MAD phasing at 2.0 Å resolution. It shows an unexpected and previously unreported intercalation cavity stabilized by the drug and novel binding modes of Co2+ ions at certain guanine N7 sites. For the intercalation cavity the terminal cytosine is rotated to pair with the guanine of a symmetry-related duplex to create a pseudo-Holliday junction geometry, with two such cavities linked through the minor groove interactions of the N2/N3 guanine sites at an angle of 40°, creating a quadruplex-like structure. The mode of binding of the drug is shown to be disordered, with the major conformations showing the side chain bound to the N7 position of adjacent guanines. The other end of the duplex exhibits a terminal base fraying in the presence of Co2+ ions linking symmetry-related guanines, causing the helices to intertwine through the minor groove. The stabilization of the structure by the intercalating drug shows that this class of compound may bind to DNA junctions as well as duplex DNA or to strand-nicked DNA (‘hemi-intercalated'), as in the cleavable complex. This suggests a structural basis for the dual poisoning of topoisomerase I and II enzymes by this family of drugs.

Effects of fully open-air CO2 elevation on leaf ultrastructure, photosynthesis and yield of two soybean cultivars.

The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of elevated (550 ± 17 μmol mol−1) CO2 concentration ([CO2]) on leaf ultrastructure, leaf photosynthesis and seed yield of two soybean cultivars [Glycine max (L.) Merr. cv. Zhonghuang 13 and cv. Zhonghuang 35] at the Free-Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) experimental facility in North China. Photosynthetic acclimation occurred in soybean plants exposed to long-term elevated [CO2] and varied with cultivars and developmental stages. Photosynthetic acclimation occurred at the beginning bloom (R1) stage for both cultivars, but at the beginning seed (R5) stage only for Zhonghuang 13. No photosynthetic acclimation occurred at the beginning pod (R3) stage for either cultivar. Elevated [CO2] increased the number and size of starch grains in chloroplasts of the two cultivars. Soybean leaf senescence was accelerated under elevated [CO2], determined by unclear chloroplast membrane and blurred grana layer at the beginning bloom (R1) stage. The different photosynthesis response to elevated [CO2] between cultivars at the beginning seed (R5) contributed to the yield difference under elevated [CO2]. Elevated [CO2] significantly increased the yield of Zhonghuang 35 by 26% with the increased pod number of 31%, but not for Zhonghuang 13 without changes of pod number. We conclude that the occurrence of photosynthetic acclimation at the beginning seed (R5) stage for Zhonghuang 13 restricted the development of extra C sink under elevated [CO2], thereby limiting the response to elevated [CO2] for the seed yield of this cultivar.