980 resultados para SATURATION


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Systematic studies of the changes in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) and their effects on phytoplankton over the last 30 years in the Bohai Sea are presented. The amount of sewage disposal, use of fertilizer and the Huanghe River runoff were found to have a significant influence on the DIN or DIP concentrations in the Bohai Sea over the last 30 years. Moreover, the changes in DIN and DIP resulted in changes in the limiting nutrients of phytoplankton in the Bohai Sea from nitrogen in the early 1980s to nitrogen-phosphorus in the late 1980s, and then to phosphorus after the 1990s. In addition, changes in nitrogen and phosphorus had a significant effect on the phytoplankton community structure. The half saturation constant (K (s)) was used to evaluate the effect of nutrients on the phytoplankton community structure in the Bohai Sea over the last 30 years. Cell abundance percentages of dominant phytoplankton species with high K (s) values for phosphorus and low K (s) values for nitrogen have decreased since the 1980s, while those of dominant phytoplankton species with low K (s) values for phosphorus and high K (s) values for nitrogen increased during this period.

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In this study, we conducted eddy covariance (EC) measurements of water vapor exchange over a typical steppe in a semi-arid area of the Inner Mongolia Plateau, China. Measurement sites were located within a 25-year-old enclosure with a relatively low leaf area index (similar to 1. 5 m(2) m(-2)) and dominated by Leymus chinensis. Energy balance closure was (H + LE) = 17.09 + 0.69 x (Rn - G) (W/m(2); r(2) = 0.95, n = 6596). Precipitation during the two growing seasons of the study period was similar to the long-term average. The peak evapotranspiration in 2004 was 4 mm d(-1), and 3.5 mm d(-1) in 2003. The maximum latent heat flux was higher than the sensible heat flux, and the sensible heat flux dominated the energy budget at midday during the entire growing season in 2003; latent heat flux was the main consumption component for net radiation during the 2004 growing season. During periods of frozen soil in 2003 and 2004, the sensible heat flux was the primary consumption component for net radiation. The soil heat flux component was similar in 2003 and 2004. The decoupling coefficient (between 0.5 and 0.1) indicates that evapotranspiration was strongly controlled by saturation water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in this grassland. The results of this research suggest that energy exchange and evapotranspiration were controlled by the phenology of the vegetation and soil water content. In addition, the amount and frequency of rainfall significantly affect energy exchange and evapotranspiration upon the Inner Mongolia plateau. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.

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Plateau zokor (Myospalax baileyi) is one of the blind subterranean mole rats that spend their life solely underground in scaled burrows. It is one of the special species of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau. In their burrows, oxygen is low and carbon dioxide is high and their contents fluctuate with the change of seasons, soil types, rain and depth of burrows. However, plateau zokors show successful adaptation to that extreme environment. In this study, their adapting mechanisms to the hypoxic hypercapnic environment were analyzed through the comparison of their blood-gas properties with that of pikas (Ochotona curzniae) and Sprague-Dawley rats. The results indicated that plateau zokors had higher red blood corpuscle counts (8.11 +/- 0.59 (10(12)/L)) and hemoglobin concentrations (147 +/- 9.85 g/L), but hematocrit (45.9 +/- 3.29%) and mean corpuscular volume (56.67 +/- 2.57 fL) were lower than the other rodents. Their arterial blood and venous blood pH were 7.46 +/- 0.07 and 7.27 +/- 0.07. Oxygen pressure in arterial blood of plateau zokors was about 1.5 times higher than that of pikas and rats, and it was 0.36 and 0.26 times in their venous blood. Partial pressure for carbon dioxide in arterial and venous blood of plateau zokors was 1.5-fold and 2.0-fold higher, respectively, than in rats and pikas. Oxygen saturation of plateau zokors was 5.7 and 9.3 times lower in venous blood than that of pikas and rats, respectively. As result, the difference of oxygen saturation in arterial blood to venous blood was 2- and 4.5-fold higher in plateau zokors as that of pikas and rats, respectively. In conclusion, plateau zokors had a high tolerance to pH changes in tissues, together with strong capabilities to obtain oxygen from their hypoxic-hypercapnic environment. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Inc.

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The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is characterized by extremely high radiation, which may induce down-regulation of photosynthesis in plants living in this alpine ecosystem. To clarify whether photoinhibition occurs in the alpine environment and to discern its underlying mechanisms, we examined photosynthetic gas exchange and fluorescence emission in response to the changes in photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) and leaf temperature under natural regimes for two herbaceous species: prostrate Saussurea superba and erect-leaved Saussurea katochaete from altitude 3250 m on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. S. superba intercepted a higher maximum PPFD and experienced much higher leaf temperature than the erect-leaved S. katochaete. S. superba exhibited a much higher light saturation point for photosynthesis than S. katochaete. Under controlled conditions, the former species had higher CO2 uptake rates and neither species showed obvious photosynthetic down-regulation at high PPFD. Under natural environmental conditions, however, apparent photoinhibition, indicated by reduced electron transport rate (ETR), was evident at high PPFD for both species. After a night frost, the photochemistry of S. katochaete was depressed markedly in the early morning and recovered by mid-day. After a frost-free night, it was high in the morning and low at noon due to high radiation. S. superba did not respond to the night frost in terms of daytime photochemical pattern. In both species, photochemical depression was aggravated by high leaf temperature and the erect species was more sensitive to high temperature. This study suggests that the high radiation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is likely to induce rapidly reversible photoinhibition, which is related closely to plant architecture. Photochemistry in the prostrate species seems able to tolerate higher PPFD, without obvious suppression, than the erect species. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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针对超大规模集成电路和片上系统设计中确定异步FIFO浓度的问题,根据异步FIFO运行时的属性提出FIFO动态参数模型,该模型包括FIFO饱和度、写入端和读出端数据传输率及上溢/下溢频率。在该模型的基础之上,分析异步FIFO的深度与动态参数之间的关系,采用功能仿真方法确定片上系统中异步模块之间数据传输所需FIFO的深度。对典型实例的分析表明,采用这种方法能够在保证系统数据通信性能的前提下,获得最小的FIFO深度,优化系统资源的使用。

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以某市固定资产投资同比增长数据为根据 ,利用混沌动力学中的相空间重构技术、幅值谱分析、庞加莱截面等方法进行分析 ,并计算其关联分维 ,得出其饱和嵌入维数为 5、关联分维约为 1 7,初步确定某市固定资产投资增长过程具有混沌特性 ,有 5个因素影响着某市固定资产投资的同比增长幅度 ,其中 2个因素起决定作用·该法可用于复杂的经济系统的分析研究·

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根据主UUV观测系统测量的从UUV方位信息精度高、距离信息精度低的特点,将遗忘因子和位置权值构成的综合权值融入递推最小二乘算法(RLS)用于从UUV航行参数分析,避免采用EKF算法对观测噪声要求高的缺陷,克服数据饱和现象。同时对从UUV方位信息进行预处理以提高航行参数估计的收敛速度。仿真实验证明了方法的有效性。

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The exploration and development of natural gas in the north of Ordos basin have been one important part in China’s energy stratagem. Reservoir in upper Palaeozoic group is of lithological trap and its prediction is a crux in a series of works. Based on foregoing seismic reservoir prediction, seismic data are re-processed with some optical methods and pre-stack information is used in corresponding inversions. Through the application of diverse methods, a series of techniques for reservoir prediction come into being. Several results are achieved as flowing: 1. A set of log processing and interpretation methods is developed. Porosity, permeability and gas saturation models are rebuilt. 2. Based on the petro-physics analysis of reservoirs in upper Palaeozoic group, the equations about lithology, property, hydrocarbon and elastic parameters are established. 3. Forward modeling based on elastic wave theory is first applied in the study area and increases the resolution of modeling results. 4. A series of techniques such as pre-stack time migration and others are combined to improve the data quality. 5. Pre-stack seismic inversion is first employed in the north of Ordos Basin and brings the results of EI, P-impedance, S-impedance and other elastic parameters. 6. In post-stack inversion, logs indicating reservoir parameters are rebuilt and boost the resolution of lithology inversion. 7. Amplitude, coherence, frequency-discomposed amplitude, waveform and other sensitive attributes are extracted to describe sands distribution. Seismic modes standing for sands of P1x3, P1x2 are established. 8. Among 9 proposed wells, 8 wells encountered sands and became production wells. The output of DK13 amounts to 510,000 m3 per day. Keywords:the north of Ordos Basin, reservoir prediction, pre-stack inversion, post-stack inversion, seismic attributes.

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In China and world, more than half the recent basin discovered reserves involve lithologic hydrocarbon reservoir reserves. The major target for further hydrocarbon basin exploration is the subtle reservoir. The Liaodong Bay prospect is much important in Bohai Sea, which includes Liaoxi low uplift, Liaodong uplift, Liaoxi sag and Liaozhong sag. After dozens years’ exploration in Liaodong Bay, few unexplored big-and-middle-sized favorable structural traps are remained and most of the stock structure targets are bad for fragmentary. Thus seeking for new prospect area and making a breakthrough, have become the unique way to relieve the severe exploration condition in Liaodong Bay. Technique Route Based on the petrophysical property of target area, the seismic forward inference of typical subtle trap model is expanded with analysis of logging, seismic and geologic data. According to petrophysical characteristics and forward inference and research on seismic response of actual seismic data in target area, the optimization of geophysical technique is used in subtle trap identification and the geophysical identification technique system of subtle reservoir is formed. The Key Research ① Petrophysical Model The petrophysical parameter is the basic parameter for seismic wave simulation. The seismic response difference of rocks bearing different fluids is required. With the crossplot of log data, the influence of petrophysical parameters on rock elastic properties of target area is analyzed, such as porosity, shale index, fluid property and saturation. Based on the current research on Biot-Gassmann and Kuster-Toksoz model, the petrophysical parameter calculator program which can be used for fluid substitution is established. ② S-wave evaluation based on conventional log data The shear velocity is needed during forward inference of AVO or other elastic wave field. But most of the recent conventional log data is lack of shear wave. Thus according to the research on petrophysical model, the rock S-wave parameter can be evaluated from conventional log data with probability inverse method. ③ AVO forward modeling based on well data For 6 wells in JZ31-6 block and 9 wells in LD22-1 block, the AVO forward modeling recording is made by log curve. The classification of AVO characteristics in objective interval is made by the lithologic information. ④ The 2D parameter model building and forward modeling of subtle hydrocarbon trap in target area. According to the formation interpretation of ESS03D seismic area, the 2D parameter model building and seismic wave field forward modeling are carried on the given and predicted subtle hydrocarbon trap with log curve. ⑤ The lithology and fluid identification of subtle trap in target area After study the seismic response characteristics of lithology and fluid in given target area, the optimization of geophysical technique is used for lithology identification and fluid forecast. ⑥The geophysical identification technique system of subtle reservoir The Innovative Points of this Paper ① Based on laboratory measurement and petrophysical model theory, the rock S-wave parameter can be evaluated from conventional log data with probability inverse method. Then the fluid substitution method based on B-G and K-T theory is provided. ② The method and workflow for simulating seismic wave field property of subtle hydrocarbon trap are established based on the petrophysical model building and forward modeling of wave equation. ③ The description of subtle trap structural feature is launched. According to the different reflection of frequency wave field structural attribute, the fluid property of subtle trap can be identified by wave field attenuation attribute and absorption analysis. ④ It’s the first time to identify subtle trap by geophysical technique and provide exploration drilling well location. ⑤ The technique system of subtle reservoir geophysical identification is formed to provide available workflow and research ideas for other region of interest.

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In order to effectively identify and accurately evaluate low resistivity reservoir in Dongpu depression, using various logging data synthetically, geological and logging characteristics are summarized in term of different blocks on the basis of core analysis, cutting logging, oil testing and commissioning data. The formation mechanism of low resistivity reservoir is studied, and the main factors that cause low resistivity reservoir are discovered. The first factor is fine lithology, high shale content and hydrophilic rock. The second factor is high salinity formation water. The third factor is light oil, high gas quantity dissolved and large difference density of oil-water. The last factor is low amplitude structure of reservoir and low differential degree of oil-water. According to the characteristics of low resistivity reservoir, the method of compound lithology, the method of movable fluid, the method of phase permeability and the method of nuclear magnetic resonance logging are put forward. The compound lithology criterion of distinguishing hydrocarbon is founded in term of different blocks on the basis of electrical efficiency. The evaluation models of reservoir parameters are founded; whose core is oil saturation and phase permeability. In order to calculate oil saturation, the compound lithology model on the basis of electrical efficiency theory is chosen on condition that there is only the combination logging data of acoustic and induction; the W-S model is chosen on condition that there is all-around logging data. The calculational precision of oil saturation in low resistivity reservoir of work area is enhanced when the selection method is utilized. There are 1212 layers of reservoir newly added by the old well reexamination in the ten oil areas. The coincidence rate of logging interpretation reaches 83.2 percent according to the 74 well-times of oil testing or commissioning, which indicates that the distinguishing method and evaluation models of low resistivity reservoir above are feasible.By the reexamination, a ten million tons of proved reserves related to the low resistivity reservoir are newly added, consequently, the groundwork is established to increase reserve and production of old oilfields in the east of China and new livingness is added for the petroleum exploration and development in Dongpu depression.

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The practical application and development of the time-lapse seismic reservoir monitor technology has indicated which has already become one of most important development technologies in seeking the surplus oil distribution and improving the reservoir recovering. The paper, first obtained the rock physics experiment analysis data according to the Bohai Sea loose sandstone in-situ measure technical, and determined the feasibility research of the S oil-field on the time-lapse seismic reservoir monitoring combining with the time-lapse numeric simulation technology, which was used to analyze the time-lapse seismic respond raw of the reservoir parameters change and pointed out the attentive problems during the real time-lapse seismic processing and interpretation. Next, simply introduced the technical link and the effect of the time-lapse mutual constrained fidelity and match processing aiming at the local complex gathering condition, geological condition, development engineering condition. Third, introduced the time-lapse integrated interpretation and the technical system with the innovative key technology that includes the time-lapse difference explanation technology, the time-lapse seismic multi-attributes integrated interpretation technology, and the time-lapse constrained reservoir parameters inversion technology, and so on. Using the time-lapse difference direct explanation technology, directly obtained the surplus oil macroscopic distribution through the difference seismic data; Using the presenting 8 big principles of the sublayer isochronisms comparison, carried on the time-lapse integrated interpretation analysis on the fine sublayer comparison and the thin oil-layer(group) contrast and the oil layer (group); The paper putted up the research, contrast, applications of the multi-sides sensitive attribute analysis and the RBF nerve network on the nearest study algorithm, and predicted the reservoir parameters and the surplus oil distribution with them; Combining with innovative researches and the time-lapse seismic constrained reservoir parameters inversion technology realized the good combination of the seismic and the reservoir engineering. Fourth, under fully analyzing the geology condition, the reservoir condition, the exploit dynamic data, and the seismic data of the S oil-field, and analyzing the time-lapse difference factors with reservoir dynamic exploit data, calibrated the oil-gas saturation change, the pressure change, the water saturation change, and determined the rationality of the time-lapse seismic difference, and finally obtained the surplus oil distribution, the water flood characteristic understanding, reservoir degasification, and pressure drop raw, and so on, which had been used in the well pattern tightening plan proof of the S oil-field development adjustment plan. Finally, the paper summarized the knowledge and understanding of the marine time-lapse seismic integrated interpretation, also had pointed out the further need researched question.

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Micro-pore-throat, micro-fracture and low permeability are the most obvious characters of Xifeng ultra-low permeability reservoir, and threshold pressure gradient and medium deformation during the period of oilfield developing results non-linear seepage feature of the formation liquid flowing in the porous medium underground. It is impossible to solve some problems in the ultra-low permeability reservoir development by current Darcy filtration theory and development techniques. In the view of the characters of ultra-low permeability and powerful-diagenesis and fracture up-growth, the paper quantitatively characterizes of through-going scope for reservoir parameters together with some materials such as similarity field outcrop, rock core, drilling, well logging and production dynamic, which provides geological base for further development adjustment. Based on the displacement experiment of different kinds of seepage fluid and oil-water two phases, this paper proves the relationship between threshold pressure gradient and formation permeability in experiment and theory, which is power function and its index is about -1. The variation rule and the mechanism of oil-water two phases threshold pressure gradient are studied. At the same time, based on the experiment of medium deformation, the variation rule of formation physical property parameters and the deformation mechanism are researched, and the influential factors on the medium deformation are analyzed systematically. With elastic unsteady filtration theory, nonlinear mathematical models of the steady and unsteady flow of single phase as well as horizontal well flow and oil-water two phases flow are deduced with the influence of nonlinear factors including threshold pressure gradient and media deformation. The influences of nonlinear factors upon well deliverability and reservoir pressure distribution as well as the saturation variation pattern of oil-water front are analyzed. By means of the researches such as reasonable well pattern, reasonable well array ration, artificial fracture length optimization advisable water flood timing and feasibility of advanced water flooding, it is necessary to find out effective techniques in order to improve development result of this kind of reservoir. This research result develops and improves on low-velocity nonlinear seepage theory, and offers ways to study similar kind of reservoir; it is meaningful to the development of the ultra-low permeability oil and gas reservoir.

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This thesis is based on the research project of Study on the Geological Characteristics and Remaining Oil Distribution Law of Neogene Reservoirs in Liunan Area, which is one of the key research projects set by PetroChina Jidong Oilfield Company in 2006. The determination of remaining oil distribution and its saturation changes are the most important research contents for the development and production modification of oilfields in high water-cut phases. Liunan oilfield, located in Tangshan of Hebei Province geographically and in Gaoliu structural belt of Nanpu sag in Bohai Bay Basin structurally, is one of the earliest fields put into production of Jidong oilfield. Focusing on the development problems encountered during the production of the field, this thesis establishes the fine geological reservoir model through the study of reservoir properties such as fine beds correlation, sedimentary facies, micro structures, micro reservoir architecture, flow units and fluid properties. Using routine method of reservoir engineering and technology of reservoir numerical modeling, remaining oil distribution in the target beds of Liunan area is predicted successfully, while the controling factors of remaining oil distribution are illustrated, and the model of remaining oil distribution for fault-block structure reservoirs is established. Using staged-subdivision reservoir correlation and FZI study, the Strata in Liunan Area is subdivided step by step; oil sand body data-list is recompiled; diagram databases are established; plane and section configuration of monolayer sandstone body, and combination pattern of sandstone bodys are summarized. The study of multi-level staged subdivision for sedimentary micro-facies shows that the Lower member of Minghuazhen formation and the whole Guantao formation in Liunan Area belong to meandering river and braided river sedimentary facies respectively, including 8 micro facies such as after point bar, channel bar, channel, natural levee, crevasse splay, abandoned channel, flood plain and flood basin. Fine 3D geological modeling is performed through the application of advanced software and integration of geological, seismic logging and reservoir engineering data. High resolution numerical simulation is performed with a reserve fitting error less than 3%, an average pressure fitting fluctuation range lower than 2Mpa and an accumulate water cut fitting error less than 5%. In this way, the distribution law of the target reservoir in the study area is basically recognized. Eight major remaining oil distribution models are established after analysis of production status and production features in different blocks and different layers. In addition, fuzzy mathematics method is used to the integreted evaluation and prediction of abundant remaining oil accumulation area in major production beds and key sedimentary time units of the shallow strata in Liunan Area and corresponding modification comments are put forward. In summary, the establishment of fine reservoir geological model, reservoir numerical simulation and distribution prediction of remaining oil make a sound foundation for further stimulation of oilfield development performance.

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Based on field survey, laboratory testing and numerical modeling, engineering characteristics of undisturbed loess and the mechanism of long-runout loess landslides caused by underground water level rise, as well as the formation conditions and spatial distribution of landslides, are systematically studied and analyzed. Loess landslides at south Plateau of Jingyang County are mainly classified as flowslide, slide and fall. Flowslide is the main type characteristic of high velocity, long runout and multi-stages. The steep relief composed of loose structured loess-old aged soil serials and the rise of groundwater table are the predominant conditions for landslides in the study area. To study loess mechanic poperties and loess landslides mechanisims, isotropically and anisotropically consolidated undrained compression(ICU and ACU) tests and constant-deviator-drained compression (CQD) tests were carried out on undisturbed samples. The results of undrained compression tests performed at the in-situ stress level show that the soils are of consistently strain-softening in the stress-strain relations and cause high excess pore pressure. The steady-state line and the potential region of instability are obtained from ICU and ACU test results. A necessary condition for liquefaction is that the soil state initially lies in or is brought into the potential instability region. In addition, a strong strain-softening model is also formed. CQD tests demonstrate that the mobilized friction angle is far less than the steady-state angle and that the soil experiences undrained contractive failure suddenly at very small strains when its stress path during drained loading tries to cross the potential instability region,thus validates the proposed instability region. Based on the location of the region of potential instability and the stress state of slope soil, a method of static liquefaction analysis is proposed for loess landslides caused by rise in groundwater table. Compared with other liquefaction analysis methods, this method overcomes the limitations inherent in conventional slope stability method and undrained brittleness index method. Triaxial tests composed of constant water content (CW) and wetting tests at constant deviator stress are performed on undisturbed unsaturated samples. The stress-strain relation of CW tests takes on strain-hardening behavior; The results of wetting tests at constant deviator stress designed to study the mechanics of failure of unsaturated loess caused by an increase in the degree of saturation (wetting) shows that a contractive failure occurs in the undisturbed samples. On the basis of the above triaxial test results, the initiation of static liquefaction is presented for long-runout loess landslides caused by rise in groundwater table, that is, the loess slope soil gradually transfer from unsaturated to saturated state under the infiltration of irrigation. A contractive failure occurs in the local region at very small strain by increasing the pore-water pressure at constant deviator stresses under drained conditons. It is the contractive failrue resulting from rise of pore pressure that leads to high excess pore pressure in the neighbour soil which reduces shear resistance of soil. The neighbour soils also fail due to the rapid increase in pore-water pressure. Thus a connected failure surface is developed quickly and a flowslide occurs. Based on the saturated-unsaturated seepage theory, transient seepage is computed using the finite element method on loess slope under groundwater table rise. Pore-water pressure distribution for every time step after irrigation are obtained. The phreatic surface in the slope increases with the groundwater table. Pore-water pressure distribution within 8m above the phreatic surface changes very quickly,but the water content and pore water pressure in the region ranging from 8m above the phreatic surface up to ground surface is almost not affected and the matric suction usually is kept at 100~120 kPa. Based on the results of laboratory tests and seepage flow analysis, the development process of loess landslide is modeled considering groundwater table rise. The shearing plastic zone first occurs at the slope toe where the soil is soaked for long term during rise in groundwater table. As irrigation continues, the shearing plastic zone gradually extends to the interior soils, with the results that the tensile plastic zone occurs at the slope crown. As time goes on, both the shearing plastic zone and tensile plastic zone continue to extend. Then a connected plastic zone is formed and fowslide occurs. In comparision to laboratory test results, the results of numerical simulation quite well verify the presented mechanism of static liquefaction of long-runout loess landslides caused by rise in groundwater table.

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Conventional 3D seismic exploration cannot meet the demand of high yield and high efficiency safe production in coal mine any more. Now it is urgent to improve the discovery degree of coal mine geological structures for coal production in China. Based on 3D3C seismic exploration data, multi-component seismic information is fully excavated. First systematic research on 3D3C seismic data interpretation of coal measure strata is carried out. Firstly, by analyzing the coal measure strata, the seismic-geologic model of coal measure strata is built. Shear wave logging is built by using regression analysis. Horizon calibration methods of PP-wave and PS-wave are studied and the multi-wave data are used together to interpret small faults. Using main amplitude analysis technology, small faults which cannot be found from PP-wave sections can be interpreted from the low frequency PS-wave sections. Thus, the purpose to applying PS-wave data to fine structure assistant interpretation is achieved. Secondly, PP- and PS-wave post-stack well constrained inversion methods of coal measure strata are studied. Joint PP- and PS-wave post-stack inversion flow is established. More attribute parameters, which are applied in fine lithology interpretation of coal measure strata, are obtained from combinations of the inversion results. Exploring the relation between rock with negative Poisson’s ratio and anisotropy, fracture development in coal seam are predicted. Petrophysical features of coal measure strata are studied, and the relations between elastic parameters and lithology, fluid and physical properties are established. Inversions of the physical parameters such as porosity, permeability and water saturation, which reflect lithology and fluid property, are obtained. Finally, the approaches of shear wave splitting and Thomsen parameters inversion, which provide new ideas for seismic anisotropy interpretation of coal measure strata, are studied to predict fracture development. The results of practical application indicate that the methods in this paper have good feasibility and applicability. They have positive significance for high yield and high efficiency safe production in coal mine.