An ultra-short-term wind power prediction method using “offline classification and optimization, online model matching” based on time series features

The applicability of ultra-short-term wind power prediction (USTWPP) models is reviewed. The USTWPP method proposed extracts featrues from historical data of wind power time series (WPTS), and classifies every short WPTS into one of several different subsets well defined by stationary patterns. All the WPTS that cannot match any one of the stationary patterns are sorted into the subset of nonstationary pattern. Every above WPTS subset needs a USTWPP model specially optimized for it offline. For on-line application, the pattern of the last short WPTS is recognized, then the corresponding prediction model is called for USTWPP. The validity of the proposed method is verified by simulations.

'Something That Unites Us All': Understandings of St. Patrick's Day Parades as Representing the Irish National Group

The present study investigates how attendees at national celebratory crowd events-specifically St. Patrick's Day parades-understand the role of such events in representing and uniting the national community. We conducted semi-structured interviews with people who attended St. Patrick's Day parades in either Dublin or Belfast. In year 1, full-length interviews were conducted before and after the events (N=17), and in years 1 and 2, shorter interviews were conducted during the events (year 1 N=170; year 2 N=142). Interview data were analysed using thematic analysis, allowing the identification of three broad themes. Participants reported that (i) the events extend the boundary of the national group, using participation to define who counts as Irish; (ii) the events strategically represent the nature of the national group, maximising positive images and managing stereotypical representations; and (iii) symbolism serves to unify the group but can also disrupt already fragile unity and so must be managed. Overall, this points to a strategic identity dimension to these crowd events. We discuss the implications of these findings for future research in terms of the role of large-scale celebratory events in the strategic representation of everyday social identities.

Abstract 1905: Defining a therapeutic classification of breast cancer by actionable targets

Breast cancer remains a frequent cause of female cancer death despite the great strides in elucidation of biological subtypes and their reported clinical and prognostic significance. We have defined a general cohort of breast cancers in terms of putative actionable targets, involving growth and proliferative factors, the cell cycle, and apoptotic pathways, both as single biomarkers across a general cohort and within intrinsic molecular subtypes.

We identified 293 patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Additional hormonal therapy and trastuzumab was administered depending on hormonal and HER2 status respectively. We performed immunohistochemistry for ER, PR, HER2, MM1, CK5/6, p53, TOP2A, EGFR, IGF1R, PTEN, p-mTOR and e-cadherin. The cohort was classified into luminal (62%) and non-luminal (38%) tumors as well as luminal A (27%), luminal B HER2 negative (22%) and positive (12%), HER2 enriched (14%) and triple negative (25%). Patients with luminal tumors and co-overexpression of TOP2A or IGF1R loss displayed worse overall survival (p=0.0251 and p=0.0008 respectively). Non-luminal tumors had much greater heterogeneous expression profiles with no individual markers of prognostic significance. Non-luminal tumors were characterised by EGFR and TOP2A overexpression, IGF1R, PTEN and p-mTOR negativity and extreme p53 expression.

Our results indicate that only a minority of intrinsic subtype tumors purely express single novel actionable targets. This lack of pure biomarker expression is particular prevalent in the triple negative subgroup and may allude to the mechanism of targeted therapy inaction and myriad disappointing trial results. Utilising a combinatorial biomarker approach may enhance studies of targeted therapies providing additional information during design and patient selection while also helping decipher negative trial results.

A New Android Malware Detection Method Using Bayesian Classification

Mobile malware has been growing in scale and complexity as smartphone usage continues to rise. Android has surpassed other mobile platforms as the most popular whilst also witnessing a dramatic increase in malware targeting the platform. A worrying trend that is emerging is the increasing sophistication of Android malware to evade detection by traditional signature-based scanners. As such, Android app marketplaces remain at risk of hosting malicious apps that could evade detection before being downloaded by unsuspecting users. Hence, in this paper we present an effective approach to alleviate this problem based on Bayesian classification models obtained from static code analysis. The models are built from a collection of code and app characteristics that provide indicators of potential malicious activities. The models are evaluated with real malware samples in the wild and results of experiments are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Spitzer infrared spectrograph point source classification in the Small Magellanic Cloud

The Magellanic Clouds are uniquely placed to study the stellar contribution to dust emission. Individual stars can be resolved in these systems even in the mid-infrared, and they are close enough to allow detection of infrared excess caused by dust. We have searched the Spitzer Space Telescope data archive for all Infrared Spectrograph (IRS) staring-mode observations of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) and found that 209 Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) point sources within the footprint of the Surveying the Agents of Galaxy Evolution in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SAGE-SMC) Spitzer Legacy programme were targeted, within a total of 311 staring-mode observations. We classify these point sources using a decision tree method of object classification, based on infrared spectral features, continuum and spectral energy distribution shape, bolometric luminosity, cluster membership and variability information. We find 58 asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars, 51 young stellar objects, 4 post-AGB objects, 22 red supergiants, 27 stars (of which 23 are dusty OB stars), 24 planetary nebulae (PNe), 10 Wolf-Rayet stars, 3 H II regions, 3 R Coronae Borealis stars, 1 Blue Supergiant and 6 other objects, including 2 foreground AGB stars. We use these classifications to evaluate the success of photometric classification methods reported in the literature.

A Fast Algorithm for Sparse Support Vector Machines for Mobile Computing Applications

This research presents a fast algorithm for projected support vector machines (PSVM) by selecting a basis vector set (BVS) for the kernel-induced feature space, the training points are projected onto the subspace spanned by the selected BVS. A standard linear support vector machine (SVM) is then produced in the subspace with the projected training points. As the dimension of the subspace is determined by the size of the selected basis vector set, the size of the produced SVM expansion can be specified. A two-stage algorithm is derived which selects and refines the basis vector set achieving a locally optimal model. The model expansion coefficients and bias are updated recursively for increase and decrease in the basis set and support vector set. The condition for a point to be classed as outside the current basis vector and selected as a new basis vector is derived and embedded in the recursive procedure. This guarantees the linear independence of the produced basis set. The proposed algorithm is tested and compared with an existing sparse primal SVM (SpSVM) and a standard SVM (LibSVM) on seven public benchmark classification problems. Our new algorithm is designed for use in the application area of human activity recognition using smart devices and embedded sensors where their sometimes limited memory and processing resources must be exploited to the full and the more robust and accurate the classification the more satisfied the user. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithm. This work builds upon a previously published algorithm specifically created for activity recognition within mobile applications for the EU Haptimap project [1]. The algorithms detailed in this paper are more memory and resource efficient making them suitable for use with bigger data sets and more easily trained SVMs.

The Effect of Community-Based Specialist Palliative Care Teams on Place of Care

BACKGROUND: Prior research on community-based specialist palliative care teams used outcome measures of place of death and/or dichotomous outcome measures of acute care use in the last two weeks of life. However, existing research seldom measured the diverse places of care used and their timing prior to death.

OBJECTIVE: The study objective was to examine the place of care in the last 30 days of life.

METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, patients who received care from a specialist palliative care team (exposed) were matched by propensity score to patients who received usual care in the community (unexposed) in Ontario, Canada. Measured was the percentage of patients in each place of care in the last month of life as a proportion of the total cohort.

RESULTS: After matching, 3109 patients were identified in each group, where 79% had cancer and 77% received end-of-life home care. At 30 days compared to 7 days before death, the exposed group's proportions rose from 33% to 41% receiving home care and 14% to 15% in hospital, whereas the unexposed group's proportions rose from 28% to 32% receiving home care and 16% to 22% in hospital. Linear trend analysis (proportion over time) showed that the exposed group used significantly more home care services and fewer hospital days (p < 0.001) than the unexposed group. On the last day of life (place of death), the exposed group had 18% die in an in-patient hospital bed compared to 29% in usual care.

CONCLUSION: Examining place of care in the last month can effectively illustrate the service use trajectory over time.