Anatomy of the portuguese stock market risk and return in the 1977-2012 period

This paper analyses the Portuguese stock market since it reopened in 1977, with a special focus on the evolution of the statistic and stochastic characteristics of the market return throughout this 36 year period. The market return for the period of time between 1977 and 2012 (September 28th) is estimated and then compared with the return that would have been achieved with Government bonds and treasury bills, which allows us to confirm that the hierarchy of return / risk across the different financial instruments is verified. The market risk premium for this 36 year period is also estimated and a comparison with other markets is performed, suggesting that the Portuguese market’s risk has not been compensated by an adequate return. The study also examines the evolution of the Portuguese market’s volatility in the 1977-2012 period and compares it with other markets, showing the existence of extremely high peaks during the first 11 years, but indicating a downwards trend throughout the whole period under analysis. Finally, the correlation between market returns for Portugal and for other countries and the degree of integration are estimated and their evolution throughout time is assessed, leading to the conclusion that the performance of the Portuguese stock market has become increasingly correlated with major European markets – correlation with some markets close to 0.70 from 2000 onwards-, but that country-specific risk factors are still relevant.

Return on assets in the Tobacco Industry analysis of the four main Tobacco Manufacturers

This paper studies operating profitability drivers in the Four Main Tobacco Manufacturers for the period 2004-2014. The operating profitability is analyzed as return on assets (ROA) based on the DuPont Extended Model breakdown in degree of operational risk, gross sales margin and assets turnover. The sources of ROA are market share and price strategies appraised through the drivers: firm-size, global value and strategic choices. Using consolidated data, results suggest that firm-size and global value holds a positive relationship with ROA. Also innovation through less harmful tobacco products can lead to better ROA despite no correlation between R&D and ROA.

Business intelligence in banking: A literature analysis from 2002 to 2013 using Text Mining and latent Dirichlet allocation

telligence applications for the banking industry. Searches were performed in relevant journals resulting in 219 articles published between 2002 and 2013. To analyze such a large number of manuscripts, text mining techniques were used in pursuit for relevant terms on both business intelligence and banking domains. Moreover, the latent Dirichlet allocation modeling was used in or- der to group articles in several relevant topics. The analysis was conducted using a dictionary of terms belonging to both banking and business intelli- gence domains. Such procedure allowed for the identification of relationships between terms and topics grouping articles, enabling to emerge hypotheses regarding research directions. To confirm such hypotheses, relevant articles were collected and scrutinized, allowing to validate the text mining proce- dure. The results show that credit in banking is clearly the main application trend, particularly predicting risk and thus supporting credit approval or de- nial. There is also a relevant interest in bankruptcy and fraud prediction. Customer retention seems to be associated, although weakly, with targeting, justifying bank offers to reduce churn. In addition, a large number of ar- ticles focused more on business intelligence techniques and its applications, using the banking industry just for evaluation, thus, not clearly acclaiming for benefits in the banking business. By identifying these current research topics, this study also highlights opportunities for future research.

Ergonomic analysis in a food packaging workplace

Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD) became one of the biggest health problems in the workplace and one of the main concerns of ergonomics and despite all the technical improvements manual handling is still an important risk factor for WMSD. The current study was performed with the main objective of conducting an ergonomic analysis in a workplace that consists in packaging products in a pallet, in a food distribution industry, also called picking. In this perspective, the aim of the study is to identify if the tasks performed by operators present any risk of WMSD and, if so, to suggest proposals for minimizing the associated effort. The methodologies of ergonomic risk assessment that were initially applied were the Risk Reckoner and the Manual Handling Assessment Chart (MAC). Subsequently, in order to, on the one hand, complement the analysis performed using the two methods previously mentioned, and, on the other hand, allow an assessment of two important risk factors associated with this activity (work postures and loads handling), two additional methodologies were also selected: the Revised NIOSH Lifting Equation and the Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). In all the performed approaches, the tasks of palletizing at lower levels were identified as the ones that most penalize workers in what regards the risk of development of WMSD. All methodologies identified levels of risk that require an immediate or short-term ergonomic intervention, aiming at ensuring the safety and health of workers performing such activity. The implementation of measures designed to eliminate or minimize the risk may involve the allocation of significant human and material resources that is increasingly necessary to manage efficiently. Taking into account the complexity and variability of the developed tasks, it is recommended that such a decision can be preceded by a new study using more accurate risk assessment methodologies, such as those that use monitoring tools.

Limitations and improvements to the risk assessment process in Olive Oil Mills: the views of OSH practitioners

Although most of the accidents occurred in Olive Oil Mill (OOM) resulted from “basic” risks, there is a need to apply adequate tools to support risk decisions that can meet the specificities of this sector. This study aims to analyse the views of Occupational, Safety & Health (OSH) practitioners about the risk assessment process in OOM, identifying the key difficulties inherent to the risk assessment process in these sector, as well as identifying some improvements to the current practice. This analysis was based on a questionnaire that was developed and applied to 13 OSH practitioners working at OOM. The results showed that the time available to perform the risk assessment is the more frequent limitation. They believe that the methodologies available are not an important limitation to this process. However, a specific risk assessment methodology, that includes acceptance criteria adjusted to the OOM reality, using risk metrics supported on the frequency of accidents and workdays lost, were indicated as being also an important contributions improve the process. A semi-quantitative approach, complemented with the use of the sector accident statistics, can be a good solution for this sector. However, further strategies should also be adopted, mainly those that can lead to an easy application of the risk assessment process.

UV-visible scanning spectrophotometry and chemometric analysis as tools for carotenoids analysis in cassava genotypes (Manihot esculenta Crantz)

In this study, the metabolomics characterization focusing on the carotenoid composition of ten cassava (Manihot esculenta) genotypes cultivated in southern Brazil by UV-visible scanning spectrophotometry and reverse phase-high performance liquid chromatography was performed. Cassava roots rich in -carotene are an important staple food for populations with risk of vitamin A deficiency. Cassava genotypes with high pro-vitamin A activity have been identified as a strategy to reduce the prevalence of deficiency of this vitamin. The data set was used for the construction of a descriptive model by chemometric analysis. The genotypes of yellow-fleshed roots were clustered by the higher concentrations of cis--carotene and lutein. Inversely, cream-fleshed roots genotypes were grouped precisely due to their lower concentrations of these pigments, as samples rich in lycopene (redfleshed) differed among the studied genotypes. The analytical approach (UV-Vis, HPLC, and chemometrics) used showed to be efficient for understanding the chemodiversity of cassava genotypes, allowing to classify them according to important features for human health and nutrition.

The importance of risk assessment in the context of investment project management: a case study

Risk management is an important component of project management. Nevertheless, such process begins with risk assessment and evaluation. In this research project, a detailed analysis of the methodologies used to treat risks in investment projects adopted by the Banco da Amazonia S.A. was made. Investment projects submitted to the FNO (Constitutional Fund for Financing the North) during 2011 and 2012 were considered for that purpose. It was found that the evaluators of this credit institution use multiple indicators for risk assessment which assume a central role in terms of decision-making and contribute for the approval or the rejection of the submitted projects; namely, the proven ability to pay, the financial records of project promotors, several financial restrictions, level of equity, level of financial indebtedness, evidence of the existence of a consumer market, the proven experience of the partners/owners in the business, environmental aspects, etc. Furthermore, the bank has technological systems to support the risk assessment process, an internal communication system and a unique system for the management of operational risk.

Autoimmune diseases and pregnancy: analysis of a series of cases

BACKGROUND: An autoimmune disease is characterized by tissue damage, caused by self-reactivity of different effector mechanisms of the immune system, namely antibodies and T cells. All autoimmune diseases, to some extent, have implications for fertility and obstetrics. Currently, due to available treatments and specialised care for pregnant women with autoimmune disease, the prognosis for both mother and child has improved significantly. However these pregnancies are always high risk. The purpose of this study is to analyse the fertility/pregnancy process of women with systemic and organ-specific autoimmune diseases and assess pathological and treatment implications. METHODS: The authors performed an analysis of the clinical records and relevant obstetric history of five patients representing five distinct autoimmune pathological scenarios, selected from Autoimmune Disease Consultation at the Hospital of Braga, and reviewed the literature. RESULTS: The five clinical cases are the following: Case 1-28 years old with systemic lupus erythematosus, and clinical remission of the disease, under medication with hydroxychloroquine, prednisolone and acetylsalicylic acid, with incomplete miscarriage at 7 weeks of gestation without signs of thrombosis. Case 2-44 years old with history of two late miscarriages, a single preterm delivery (33 weeks) and multiple thrombotic events over the years, was diagnosed with antiphospholipid syndrome after acute myocardial infarction. Case 3-31 years old with polymyositis, treated with azathioprine for 3 years with complete remission of the disease, took the informed decision to get pregnant after medical consultation and full weaning from azathioprine, and gave birth to a healthy term new-born. Case 4-38 years old pregnant woman developed Behcet's syndrome during the final 15 weeks of gestation and with disease exacerbation after delivery. Case 5-36 years old with autoimmune thyroiditis diagnosed during her first pregnancy, with difficult control over the thyroid function over the years and first trimester miscarriage, suffered a second miscarriage despite clinical stability and antibody regression. CONCLUSIONS: As described in literature, the authors found a strong association between autoimmune disease and obstetric complications, especially with systemic lupus erythematosus, antiphospholipid syndrome and autoimmune thyroiditis.

Development of a methodology to incorporate risk and uncertainty in electricity power planning

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

Development of a model for occupational risk acceptance criteria definition in industrial settings

Doctoral Dissertation for PhD degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering

Study to determine the cardiovascular risk ofthe population of Guimarães/Vizela, includingthe prevalence of arterial stiffness and early vascular aging syndrome

Tese de Doutoramento em Medicina.

Type 2 diabetes-related variants influence the risk of developing multiple myeloma: results from the IMMEnSE consortium

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been suggested to be a risk factor for multiple myeloma (MM), but the relationship between the two traits is still not well understood. The aims of this study were to evaluate whether 58 genome-wide-association-studies (GWAS)-identified common variants for T2D influence the risk of developing MM and to determine whether predictive models built with these variants might help to predict the disease risk. We conducted a case–control study including 1420 MM patients and 1858 controls ascertained through the International Multiple Myeloma (IMMEnSE) consortium. Subjects carrying the KCNQ1rs2237892T allele or the CDKN2A-2Brs2383208G/G, IGF1rs35767T/T and MADDrs7944584T/T genotypes had a significantly increased risk of MM (odds ratio (OR)=1.32–2.13) whereas those carrying the KCNJ11rs5215C, KCNJ11rs5219T and THADArs7578597C alleles or the FTOrs8050136A/A and LTArs1041981C/C genotypes showed a significantly decreased risk of developing the disease (OR=0.76–0.85). Interestingly, a prediction model including those T2D-related variants associated with the risk of MM showed a significantly improved discriminatory ability to predict the disease when compared to a model without genetic information (area under the curve (AUC)=0.645 vs AUC=0.629; P=4.05×10-06). A gender-stratified analysis also revealed a significant gender effect modification for ADAM30rs2641348 and NOTCH2rs10923931 variants (Pinteraction=0.001 and 0.0004, respectively). Men carrying the ADAM30rs2641348C and NOTCH2rs10923931T alleles had a significantly decreased risk of MM whereas an opposite but not significant effect was observed in women (ORM=0.71 and ORM=0.66 vs ORW=1.22 and ORW=1.15, respectively). These results suggest that TD2-related variants may influence the risk of developing MM and their genotyping might help to improve MM risk prediction models.

Longitudinal analysis of tumor marker CEA of breast cancer patients from Braga's hospital

Allied to an epidemiological study of population of the Senology Unit of Braga’s Hospital that have been diagnosed with malignant breast cancer, we describe the progression in time of repeated measurements of tumor marker Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Our main purpose is to describe the progression of this tumor marker as a function of possible risk factors and, hence, to understand how these risk factors influences that progression. The response variable, values of CEA, was analyzed making use of longitudinal models, testing for different correlation structures. The same covariates used in a previous survival analysis were considered in the longitudinal model. The reference time used was time from diagnose until death from breast cancer. For diagnostic of the models fitted we have used empirical and theoretical variograms. To evaluate the fixed term of the longitudinal model we have tested for a changing point on the effect of time on the tumor marker progression. A longitudinal model was also fitted only to the subset of patients that died from breast cancer, using the reference time as time from date of death until blood test.

Risk factors for atherosclerosis in an elderly out patient population in the City of São Paulo

OBJECTIVE: To analyze in out clinic elderly patients of both sexes for the prevalence of risk factors for atherosclerosis and study their association with the complications of atherosclerosis. METHODS: Five hundred and sixteen outpatients, 152 men and 364 women, 60 years or older, were studied. The prevalences of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, cigarette smoking and obesity were determined in both sexes and compared using the chi-square test. The association between these factors and the presence of atherosclerotic complications was analyzed by logistic regression. RESULTS: The comparative analysis of the factors in both sexes showed that hypertension, total cholesterol > or = 240mg/dL, LDL-cholesterol > or = 160mg/dL, and body mass index >27.5 were more frequent among women, but HDL-cholesterol <35mg/dL and cigarette smoking were more frequent among men, and no difference occurred between sexes in relation to the frequency of triglycerides > or = 250mg/dL and diabetes mellitus. After adjustment of the variables in the regression model, we observed that in the total of elderly patients, risk factors for complications of atherosclerosis were: triglycerides > or = 250mg/dL, hypertension, and male sex. Among men, the risk factors were: LDL-cholesterol > or = 160mg/dL, diabetes mellitus, HDL-cholesterol <35mg/dL and hypertension. Among women, the risk factors were: tryglicerides > or = 250mg/dL and hypertension. CONCLUSION: The results showed that, in the elderly, the risk factors for atherosclerosis persist, but with different behaviors between men and women. The study suggests that the relative importance of the risk factors can change with the aging process.

Physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness, dietary content, and risk factors that cause a predisposition towards cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVE: To analyze associations between levels of physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness, dietary content, and risk factors that cause a predisposition towards cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Sixty-two individuals aged between 20 and 45 years were evaluated. Levels of physical activity were established by estimates of energy demand corresponding to everyday activity; indices for cardiorespiratory fitness were obtained from estimates of maximal oxygen consumption; information about dietary content was obtained from dietary records kept on seven consecutive days. To indicate risk factors that cause a predisposition towards cardiovascular disease, use was made of body mass indexes, waist-hip circumference relationships, levels of arterial pressure and of plasma lipid-lipoprotein concentration. To establish associations between the variables studied, multiple regression analysis was used. RESULTS: Physical activity levels and cardiorespiratory fitness levels were inversely correlated with the amount and distribution of body fat and arterial pressure. Taken together, the two variables were responsible for between 16% and 19% of the variation in arterial pressure. Total and saturated fat ingestion was associated with higher serum lipid levels. Both dietary components were responsible for between 49% and 61% of the variation in LDL-cholesterol. CONCLUSION: High ingestion of food rich in total and saturated fat and decreased levels of physical activity and of cardiorespiratory fitness are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, which supports previous data.