Calculating the balance between water resources and water demands:an approach using risk analysis

Predicting future need for water resources has traditionally been, at best, a crude mixture of art and science. This has prevented the evaluation of water need from being carried out in either a consistent or comprehensive manner. This inconsistent and somewhat arbitrary approach to water resources planning led to well publicised premature developments in the 1970's and 1980's but privatisation of the Water Industry, including creation of the Office of Water Services and the National Rivers Authority in 1989, turned the tide of resource planning to the point where funding of schemes and their justification by the Regulators could no longer be assumed. Furthermore, considerable areas of uncertainty were beginning to enter the debate and complicate the assessment It was also no longer appropriate to consider that contingencies would continue to lie solely on the demand side of the equation. An inability to calculate the balance between supply and demand may mean an inability to meet standards of service or, arguably worse, an excessive provision of water resources and excessive costs to customers. United Kingdom Water Industry Research limited (UKWlR) Headroom project in 1998 provided a simple methodology for the calculation of planning margins. This methodology, although well received, was not, however, accepted by the Regulators as a tool sufficient to promote resource development. This thesis begins by considering the history of water resource planning in the UK, moving on to discuss events following privatisation of the water industry post·1985. The mid section of the research forms the bulk of original work and provides a scoping exercise which reveals a catalogue of uncertainties prevalent within the supply-demand balance. Each of these uncertainties is considered in terms of materiality, scope, and whether it can be quantified within a risk analysis package. Many of the areas of uncertainty identified would merit further research. A workable, yet robust, methodology for evaluating the balance between water resources and water demands by using a spreadsheet based risk analysis package is presented. The technique involves statistical sampling and simulation such that samples are taken from input distributions on both the supply and demand side of the equation and the imbalance between supply and demand is calculated in the form of an output distribution. The percentiles of the output distribution represent different standards of service to the customer. The model allows dependencies between distributions to be considered, for improved uncertainties to be assessed and for the impact of uncertain solutions to any imbalance to be calculated directly. The method is considered a Significant leap forward in the field of water resource planning.

The knowledge-based perspective of risk management in healthcare organisations

The aim of this research is to investigate how risk management in a healthcare organisation can be supported by knowledge management. The subject of research is the development and management of existing logs called "risk registers", through specific risk management processes employed in a N.H.S. (Foundation) Trust in England, in the U.K. Existing literature on organisational risk management stresses the importance of knowledge for the effective implementation of risk management programmes, claiming that knowledge used to perceive risk is biased by the beliefs of individuals and groups involved in risk management and therefore is considered incomplete. Further, literature on organisational knowledge management presents several definitions and categorisations of knowledge and approaches for knowledge manipulation in the organisational context as a whole. However, there is no specific approach regarding "how to deal" with knowledge in the course of organisational risk management. The research is based on a single case study, on a N.H.S. (Foundation) Trust, is influenced by principles of interpretivism and the frame of mind of Soft Systems Methodology (S.S.M.) to investigate the management of risk registers, from the viewpoint of people involved in the situation. Data revealed that knowledge about risks and about the existing risk management policy and procedures is situated in several locations in the Trust and is neither consolidated nor present where and when required. This study proposes a framework that identifies required knowledge for each of the risk management processes and outlines methods for conversion of this knowledge, based on the SECI knowledge conversion model, and activities to facilitate knowledge conversion so that knowledge is effectively used for the development of risk registers and the monitoring of risks throughout the whole Trust under study. This study has theoretical impact in the management science literature as it addresses the issue of incomplete knowledge raised in the risk management literature using concepts of the knowledge management literature, such as the knowledge conversion model. In essence, the combination of required risk and risk management related knowledge with the required type of communication for risk management creates the proposed methods for the support of each risk management process for the risk registers. Further, the indication of the importance of knowledge in risk management and the presentation of a framework that consolidates knowledge required for the risk management processes and proposes way(s) for the communication of this knowledge within a healthcare organisation have practical impact in the management of healthcare organisations.

Impact of senescence and disease on the structural and functional performance of the visual pathway

The diagnosis and monitoring of ocular disease presents considerable clinical difficulties for two main reasons i) the substantial physiological variation of anatomical structure of the visual pathway and ii) constraints due to technical limitations of diagnostic hardware. These are further confounded by difficulties in detecting early loss or change in visual function due to the masking of disease effects, for example, due to a high degree of redundancy in terms of nerve fibre number along the visual pathway. This thesis addresses these issues across three areas of study: 1. Factors influencing retinal thickness measures and their clinical interpretation As the retina is the principal anatomical site for damage associated with visual loss, objective measures of retinal thickness and retinal nerve fibre layer thickness are key to the detection of pathology. In this thesis the ability of optical coherence tomography (OCT) to provide repeatable and reproducible measures of retinal structure at the macula and optic nerve head is investigated. In addition, the normal physiological variations in retinal thickness and retinal nerve fibre layer thickness are explored. Principal findings were: • Macular retinal thickness and optic nerve head measurements are repeatable and reproducible for normal subjects and diseased eyes • Macular and retinal nerve fibre layer thickness around the optic nerve correlate negatively with axial length, suggesting that larger eyes have thinner retinae, potentially making them more susceptible to damage or disease • Foveola retinal thickness increases with age while retinal nerve fibre layer thickness around the optic nerve head decreases with age. Such findings should be considered during examination of the eye with suspect pathology or in long-term disease monitoring 2. Impact of glucose control on retinal anatomy and function in diabetes Diabetes is a major health concern in the UK and worldwide and diabetic retinopathy is a major cause of blindness in the working population. Objective, quantitative measurements of retinal thickness. particularly at the macula provide essential information regarding disease progression and the efficacy of treatment. Functional vision loss in diabetic patients is commonly observed in clinical and experimental studies and is thought to be affected by blood glucose levels. In the first study of its kind, the short term impact of fluctuations in blood glucose levels on retinal structure and function over a 12 hour period in patients with diabetes are investigated. Principal findings were: • Acute fluctuations in blood glucose levels are greater in diabetic patients than normal subjects • The fluctuations in blood glucose levels impact contrast sensitivity scores. SWAP visual fields, intraocular pressure and diastolic pressure. This effect is similar for type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients despite the differences in their physiological status. • Long-term metabolic control in the diabetic patient is a useful predictor in the fluctuation of contrast sensitivity scores. • Large fluctuations in blood glucose levels and/or visual function and structure may be indicative of an increased risk of development or progression of retinopathy 3. Structural and functional damage of the visual pathway in glaucomatous optic neuropathy The glaucomatous eye undergoes a number of well documented pathological changes including retinal nerve fibre loss and optic nerve head damage which is correlated with loss of functional vision. In experimental glaucoma there is evidence that glaucomatous damage extends from retinal ganglion cells in the eye, along the visual pathway, to vision centres in the brain. This thesis explores the effects of glaucoma on retinal nerve fibre layer thickness, ocular anterior anatomy and cortical structure, and its correlates with visual function in humans. Principal findings were: • In the retina, glaucomatous retinal nerve fibre layer loss is less marked with increasing distance from the optic nerve head, suggesting that RNFL examination at a greater distance than traditionally employed may provide invaluable early indicators of glaucomatous damage • Neuroretinal rim area and retrobulbar optic nerve diameter are strong indicators of visual field loss • Grey matter density decreases at a rate of 3.85% per decade. There was no clear evidence of a disease effect • Cortical activation as measured by fMRI was a strong indicator of functional damage in patients with significant neuroretinal rim loss despite relatively modest visual field defects These investigations have shown that the effects of senescence are evident in both the anterior and posterior visual pathway. A variety of anatomical and functional diagnostic protocols for the investigation of damage to the visual pathway in ocular disease are required to maximise understanding of the disease processes and thereby optimising patient care.

The effects of perceived business uncertainty, external consultants and risk management on organisational outcomes

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relations between perceived business uncertainty (PBU), use of external risk management (RM) consultants, formalisation of RM, magnitude of RM methods and perceived organisational outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper is based on a questionnaire survey of members of the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants in the UK. Using AMOS 17.0, the paper tests the strength of the direct and indirect effects among the variables and explores the fit of the overall path model. Findings: The results indicate significant and positive associations exist between the extent of PBU and the level ofRMformalisation, as well as between the level ofRMformalisation and the magnitude of RMmethods adopted. The use of externalRMconsultants is also found to have a significant and positive impact on the magnitude of RM methods adopted. Finally, both the extent of RM formalisation and the magnitude of RM methods adopted are seen to be significantly associated with overall improvement in organisational outcomes. Research limitations/implications: The study uses perceptual measures of the level of business uncertainty, usage of RM and organisational outcomes. Further, the respondents are members of a management accounting professional body and the views of other managers, such as risk managers, who are also important to the governance process are not incorporated. Originality/value: This study provides empirical evidence on the impact ofRMdesign and usage on improvements in organisational outcomes. It contributes to the RM literature where empirical research is needed in order to be comparable with the traditional management control system literature.

The impact of the CACNA1C gene polymorphism on frontolimbic function in bipolar disorder

Genome-wide association studies in bipolar disorder (BD)1 have implicated a single-nucleotide polymorphism (rs1006737, G right arrow A) in the CACNA1C gene, which encodes for the alpha 1c (CAV1.2) subunit of the voltage-gated, L-type calcium channel. Neuroimaging studies of healthy individuals report that this risk allele modulates brain function within limbic (amygdala, anterior cingulate gyrus) and hippocampal regions during tasks of reward processing2, 3 and episodic memory. Moreover, animal studies suggest that the CaV1.2 L-type calcium channels influence emotional behaviour through enhanced neurotransmission via the lateral amygdala pathway. On the basis of this evidence, we tested the hypotheses that the CACNA1C rs1006737 risk allele will modulate neural responses within predefined prefrontal and subcortical regions of interest during emotional face processing and that this effect would be amplified in BD patients.

Delegation of pricing authority to the sales force:an agency-theoretic perspective of its determinants and impact on performance

In industrial selling situations, the questions of what factors drive pricing authority delegation to salespeople and under what conditions price delegation is beneficial for the firm are often asked. To advance knowledge in this area, we (1) develop and empirically test a framework of important drivers of price delegation based on agency-theoretic research and (2) investigate the impact of price delegation on firm performance, taking into account agency theory variables as potential moderators. The study is based on data from a sample of 181 companies from the industrial machinery and electrical engineering industry in Germany. The results indicate that the degree of pricing delegation increases as information asymmetry between the salesperson and sales manager increases and as it becomes more difficult to monitor salespeople's efforts. Conversely, risk-aversion of salespeople is negatively related to the degree of price delegation. Furthermore, we find a positive effect of price delegation on firm performance, which is amplified when market-related uncertainty is high and when salespeople possess better customer-related information than their managers. Hence, our results clearly show that rigid, “one price fits all” policies are inappropriate in many B2B market situations. Instead, sales managers should grant their salespeople sufficient leeway to adapt prices to changing customer requirements and market conditions, especially in firms that operate in highly uncertain selling environments.

The impact of general intellectual ability and white matter volume on the functional outcome of patients with bipolar disorder and their relatives

Background: There is substantial evidence that cognitive deficits and brain structural abnormalities are present in patients with Bipolar Disorder (BD) and in their first-degree relatives. Previous studies have demonstrated associations between cognition and functional outcome in BD patients but have not examined the role of brain morphological changes. Similarly, the functional impact of either cognition or brain morphology in relatives remains unknown. Therefore we focused on delineating the relationship between psychosocial functioning, cognition and brain structure, in relation to disease expression and genetic risk for BD. Methods: Clinical, cognitive and brain structural measures were obtained from 41 euthymic BD patients and 50 of their unaffected first-degree relatives. Psychosocial function was evaluated using the General Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scale. We examined the relationship between level of functioning and general intellectual ability (IQ), memory, attention, executive functioning, symptomatology, illness course and total gray matter, white matter and cerebrospinal fluid volumes. Limitations: Cross-sectional design. Results: Multiple regression analyses revealed that IQ, total white matter volume and a predominantly depressive illness course were independently associated with functional outcome in BD patients, but not in their relatives, and accounted for a substantial proportion (53%) of the variance in patients' GAF scores. There were no significant domain-specific associations between cognition and outcome after consideration of IQ. Conclusions: Our results emphasise the role of IQ and white matter integrity in relation to outcome in BD and carry significant implications for treatment interventions. © 2010 Elsevier B.V.

The impact of the Val158Met catechol-O-methyltransferase genotype on neural correlates of sad facial affect processing in patients with bipolar disorder and their relatives

Background - The Met allele of the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) valine-to-methionine (Val158Met) polymorphism is known to affect dopamine-dependent affective regulation within amygdala-prefrontal cortical (PFC) networks. It is also thought to increase the risk of a number of disorders characterized by affective morbidity including bipolar disorder (BD), major depressive disorder (MDD) and anxiety disorders. The disease risk conferred is small, suggesting that this polymorphism represents a modifier locus. Therefore our aim was to investigate how the COMT Val158Met may contribute to phenotypic variation in clinical diagnosis using sad facial affect processing as a probe for its neural action. Method - We employed functional magnetic resonance imaging to measure activation in the amygdala, ventromedial PFC (vmPFC) and ventrolateral PFC (vlPFC) during sad facial affect processing in family members with BD (n=40), MDD and anxiety disorders (n=22) or no psychiatric diagnosis (n=25) and 50 healthy controls. Results - Irrespective of clinical phenotype, the Val158 allele was associated with greater amygdala activation and the Met allele with greater signal change in the vmPFC and vlPFC. Signal changes in the amygdala and vmPFC were not associated with disease expression. However, in the right vlPFC the Met158 allele was associated with greater activation in all family members with affective morbidity compared with relatives without a psychiatric diagnosis and healthy controls. Conclusions - Our results suggest that the COMT Val158Met polymorphism has a pleiotropic effect within the neural networks subserving emotional processing. Furthermore the Met158 allele further reduces cortical efficiency in the vlPFC in individuals with affective morbidity. © 2010 Cambridge University Press.

Decision support for lifecycle planning and risk management of small-scale biomass combined heat and power (bCHP) projects in the UK

Biomass is projected to account for approximately half of the new energy production required to achieve the 2020 primary energy target in the UK. Combined heat and power (CHP) bioenergy systems are not only a highly efficient method of energy conversion, at smaller-scales a significant proportion of the heat produced can be effectively utilised for hot water, space heating or industrial heating purposes. However, there are many barriers to project development and this has greatly inhibited deployment in the UK. Project viability is highly subjective to changes in policy, regulation, the finance market and the low cost incumbent; a high carbon centralised energy system. Unidentified or unmitigated barriers occurring during the project lifecycle may not only negatively impact on the project but could ultimately lead to project failure. The research develops a decision support system (DSS) for small-scale (500 kWe to 10 MWe) biomass combustion CHP project development and risk management in the early stages of a potential project’s lifecycle. By supporting developers in the early stages of project development with financial, scheduling and risk management analysis, the research aims to reduce the barriers identified and streamline decision-making. A fuzzy methodology is also applied throughout the developed DSS to support developers in handling the uncertain or approximate information often held at the early stages of the project lifecycle. The DSS is applied to a case study of a recently failed (2011) small-scale biomass CHP project to demonstrate its applicability and benefits. The application highlights that the proposed development within the case study was not viable. Moreover, further analysis of the possible barriers with the DSS confirmed that some possible modifications to be project could have improved this, such as a possible change of feedstock to a waste or residue, addressing the unnecessary land lease cost or by increasing heat utilisation onsite. This analysis is further supported by a practitioner evaluation survey that confirms the research contribution and objectives are achieved.

Impact of suspected food allergy on emotional distress and family life of parents prior to allergy diagnosis

Background: Food allergy is associated with psychological distress in both child and parent. It is unknown whether parental distress is present prior to clinical diagnosis or whether experiences at clinic can reduce any distress present. This study aimed to assess anxiety and depression in parents and the impact of suspected food allergy on the lives of families before and after a visit to an allergy clinic. Methods: One hundred and twenty-four parents visiting an allergy clinic for the first time to have their child assessed for food allergy completed a study-specific questionnaire and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale; 50 parents completed these 4-6 wk later in their own home. Results: Most parents (86.4%) reported suspected food allergy had an impact on their family life prior to clinic attendance; 76% had made changes to their child's diet. 32.5% of parents had mild-to-severe anxiety before their clinic visit; 17.5% had mild-to-moderate depression. Post-clinic, 40% had mild-to-severe anxiety; 13.1% had mild-to-moderate depression. There were no significant differences in anxiety (p = 0.34) or depression scores (p = 0.09) before and after the clinic visit. Conclusions: Anxiety and depression is present in a small proportion of parents prior to diagnosis of food allergy in their child and this does not reduce in the short term after the clinic visit. Identification of parents at risk of suffering from distress is needed and ways in which we communicate allergy information before and at clinic should be investigated to see if we can reduce distress. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of ATP-binding cassette, subfamily B, member 1 pharmacogenetics on tacrolimus-associated nephrotoxicity and dosage requirements in paediatric patients with liver transplant

Importance of the field: Tacrolimus is the most commonly used immunosuppressive agent following solid-organ transplantation in children. Its clinical use, however, is complicated by side effects (mainly nephrotoxicity), narrow therapeutic index and pharmacokinetic variability which can result in an increased risk of treatment failure or toxicity. Studies examining interindividual differences in the expression of the ABCB1 (ATP-binding cassette, subfamily B, member 1) gene (which encodes the drug transporter, P-gp) and its genetic polymorphisms have attempted to elucidate variations in tacrolimus response and disposition in children. Areas covered in this review: This review explores pharmacogenetic knowledge developed over the last decade regarding the impact of ABCB1 polymorphisms on tacrolimus toxicity and dosage requirements in children. What the reader will gain: A better understanding of the role of ABCB1 genetic polymorphisms (and corresponding haplotypes) and ABCB1 expression levels in various tissues and organs on tacrolimus outcomes in children with liver transplant. Take home message: Pharmacogenetics offers significant potential for optimising tacrolimus use. ABCB1 donor genotypes and ABCB1 expression level in the intestine and leukocytes may be useful in dosage selection. Large prospective studies are, however, required to further explore the potential of genetic testing in identifying children who are at risk of toxicity and to better individualise tacrolimus therapy.

Risk and uncertainty in supply markets and sustainability-related innovation

tentially valuable innovations. In energy policy, much attention is given to analysing and incentivising customer demand, but new technologies also need new supply markets, to provide products and services to build, operate and maintain the innovative technology. This paper addresses the impact of supply constraints on the long-term viability of sustainability related innovations, using the case of energy from waste (EfW). Uncertainties in the pricing and availability of feedstock (i.e. waste) deter potential investors in EfW projects. We draw on prior supply management research to conceptualise the problem, and identify what steps might be taken to address it. Based on this analysis, we propose a research agenda aimed at purchasing and supply scholars and centred on the need to understand better how markets evolve and how stakeholders can (legitimately) influence the evolution of supply markets to support the adoption of sustainability related innovation. Within this broad case, specific themes are recommended for further investigation.

A predictive in vitro model of the impact of drugs with anticholinergic properties on human neuronal and astrocytic systems

The link between off-target anticholinergic effects of medications and acute cognitive impairment in older adults requires urgent investigation. We aimed to determine whether a relevant in vitro model may aid the identification of anticholinergic responses to drugs and the prediction of anticholinergic risk during polypharmacy. In this preliminary study we employed a co-culture of human-derived neurons and astrocytes (NT2.N/A) derived from the NT2 cell line. NT2.N/A cells possess much of the functionality of mature neurons and astrocytes, key cholinergic phenotypic markers and muscarinic acetylcholine receptors (mAChRs). The cholinergic response of NT2 astrocytes to the mAChR agonist oxotremorine was examined using the fluorescent dye fluo-4 to quantitate increases in intracellular calcium [Ca2+]i. Inhibition of this response by drugs classified as severe (dicycloverine, amitriptyline), moderate (cyclobenzaprine) and possible (cimetidine) on the Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden (ACB) scale, was examined after exposure to individual and pairs of compounds. Individually, dicycloverine had the most significant effect regarding inhibition of the astrocytic cholinergic response to oxotremorine, followed by amitriptyline then cyclobenzaprine and cimetidine, in agreement with the ACB scale. In combination, dicycloverine with cyclobenzaprine had the most significant effect, followed by dicycloverine with amitriptyline. The order of potency of the drugs in combination frequently disagreed with predicted ACB scores derived from summation of the individual drug scores, suggesting current scales may underestimate the effect of polypharmacy. Overall, this NT2.N/A model may be appropriate for further investigation of adverse anticholinergic effects of multiple medications, in order to inform clinical choices of suitable drug use in the elderly.

Impact in contact lenses and the anterior eye:challenges prevailing in 2015

As we settle into a new year, this second issue of Contact Lens and Anterior Eye allows us to reflect on how new research in this field impacts our understanding, but more importantly, how we use this evidence basis to enhance our day to day practice, to educate the next generation of students and to construct the research studies to deepen our knowledge still further. The end of 2014 saw the publication of the UK governments Research Exercise Framework (REF) which ranks Universities in terms of their outputs (which includes their paper, publications and research income), environment (infrastructure and staff support) and for the first time impact (defined as “any effect on, change or benefit to the economy, society, culture, public policy or services, health, the environment or quality of life, beyond academia” [8]). The REF is a process of expert review, carried out in 36 subject-based units of assessment, of which our field is typically submitted to the Allied Health, Dentistry, Nursing and Pharmacy panel. Universities that offer Optometry did very well with Cardiff, Manchester and Aston in the top 10% out of the 94 Universities that submitted to this panel (Grade point Average ranked order). While the format of the new exercise (probably in 2010) to allocate the more than £2 billion of UK government research funds is yet to be determined, it is already rumoured that impact will contribute an even larger proportion to the weighting. Hence it is even more important to reflect on the impact of our research. In this issue, Elisseef and colleagues [5] examine the intriguing potential of modifying a lens surface to allow it to bind to known wetting agents (in this case hyaluronic acid) to enhance water retention. Such a technique has the capacity to reduced friction between the lens surface and the eyelids/ocular surface, presumably leading to higher comfort and less reason for patients to discontinue with lens wear. Several papers in this issue report on the validity of new high precision, fast scanning imaging and quantification equipment, utilising techniques such as Scheimpflug, partial coherence interferometry, aberrometry and video allowing detailed assessment of anterior chamber biometry, corneal topography, corneal biomechanics, peripheral refraction, ocular aberrations and lens fit. The challenge is how to use this advanced instrumentation which is becoming increasingly available to create real impact. Many challenges in contact lenses and the anterior eye still prevail in 2015 such as: -While contact lens and refractive surgery complications are relatively rare, they are still too often devastating to the individual and their quality of life (such as the impact and prognosis of patients with Acanthmoeba Keratitis reported by Jhanji and colleagues in this issue [7]). How can we detect those patients who are going to be affected and what modifications do we need to make to contact lenses and patient management prevent this occurring? -Drop out from contact lenses still occurs at a rapid rate and symptoms of dry eye seem to be the leading cause driving this discontinuation of wear [1] and [2]. What design, coating, material and lubricant release mechanism will make a step change in end of day comfort in particular? -Presbyopia is a major challenge to hassle free quality vision and is one of the first signs of ageing noticed by many people. As an emmetrope approaching presbyopia, I have a vested interest in new medical devices that will give me high quality vision at all distances when my arms won’t stretch any further. Perhaps a new definition of presbyopia could be when you start to orientate your smartphone in the landscape direction to gain the small increase in print size needed to read! Effective accommodating intraocular lenses that truly mimic the pre-presbyopic crystalline lenses are still a way off [3] and hence simultaneous images achieved through contact lenses, intraocular lenses or refractive surgery still have a secure future. However, splitting light reaching the retina and requiring the brain to supress blurred images will always be a compromise on contrast sensitivity and is liable to cause dysphotopsia; so how will new designs account for differences in a patient's task demands and own optical aberrations to allow focused patient selection, optimising satisfaction? -Drug delivery from contact lenses offers much in terms of compliance and quality of life for patients with chronic ocular conditions such as glaucoma, dry eye and perhaps in the future, dry age-related macular degeneration; but scientific proof-of-concept publications (see EIShaer et al. [6]) have not yet led to commercial products. Part of this is presumably the regulatory complexity of combining a medical device (the contact lens) and a pharmaceutical agent. Will 2015 be the year when this innovation finally becomes a reality for patients, bringing them an enhanced quality of life through their eye care practitioners and allowing researchers to further validate the use of pharmaceutical contact lenses and propose enhancements as the technology matures? -Last, but no means least is the field of myopia control, the topic of the first day of the BCLA's Conference in Liverpool, June 6–9th 2015. The epidemic of myopia is a blight, particularly in Asia, with significant concerns over sight threatening pathology resulting from the elongated eye. This is a field where real impact is already being realised through new soft contact lens optics, orthokeratology and low dose pharmaceuticals [4], but we still need to be able to better predict which technique will work best for an individual and to develop new techniques to retard myopia progression in those who don’t respond to current treatments, without increasing their risk of complications or the treatment impacting their quality of life So what will your New Year's resolution be to make 2015 a year of real impact, whether by advancing science or applying the findings published in journals such as Contact Lens and Anterior Eye to make a real difference to your patients’ lives?

Moral hazard, dividends, and risk in banks

In non-financial firms, higher risk taking results in lower dividend payout ratios. In banking, public guarantees may result in a positive relationship between dividend payout ratios and risk taking. I investigate the interplay between dividend payout ratios and bank risk-taking allowing for the effect of charter values and capital adequacy regulation. I find a positive relationship between bank risk-taking and dividend payout ratios. Proximity to the required capital ratio and a high charter value reduce the impact of bank risk-taking on the dividend payout ratio. My results are robust to different proxies for the dividend payout ratio and bank risk-taking. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.