Bearing fault prognosis based on health state probability estimation

In condition-based maintenance (CBM), effective diagnostic and prognostic tools are essential for maintenance engineers to identify imminent fault and predict the remaining useful life before the components finally fail. This enables remedial actions to be taken in advance and reschedule of production if necessary. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of bearings based on health state probability estimation and historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics system. The technique uses the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation process to provide long term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life fault historical data from bearings of High Pressure-Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life (RUL). The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

Future of the Haze Agreement : is the glass half empty or half full?

"In 1997–98, the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region suffered an unprecedented health and environmental catastrophe due to choking haze created by a massive forest !re in Indonesia. It is estimated that the total losses from the fire could be US$5–6 billion after taking into account the loss of trees and other natural resources as well as the long-term impact on human health. This unprecedented anthropogenic disaster not only created a severe health and environmental hazard but also raised a question mark about the credibility and effectiveness of the ASEAN regional grouping. Against this background, ASEAN took a number of regional initiatives to try and solve the problem and finally adopted a new treaty for regional cooperation to combat forest fire and haze in 2002. This paper assesses the future success of this agreement from the perspectives of the legal, institutional and geopolitical reality of the region. Since numerous studies have examined state responsibility for transboundary environmental harm under international law and its implications on the ASEAN haze problem, this article will not touch upon that general debate nor the remedies that are possibly available to victim states. Rather, it will focus on the ASEAN regional legal and institutional initiatives to combat the haze pollution and compare them with a similar European regional agreement. Regarding the following analysis, it is important to recognise the uncertainty arising from Indonesia’s status (presently a non-party to the Agreement). A primary indication of the future effectiveness of this agreement can be drawn from an analysis of the principles involved in this agreement, bearing in mind the inherent difficulty of enforcing norms in the international environmental legal system as a whole, and the geopolitical reality of the region."

From rights to responsibilities : reconceptualising carbon sequestration rights in Australia

Biosequestration of carbon in trees, forests and vegetation is a key method for mitigating climate change in Australia. To facilitate this, all States have enacted legislation for carbon sequestration rights, separating commercial rights in carbon from ownership of the land, trees and vegetation in which the carbon is sequestered. Ownership of carbon sequestration rights under state law is a prerequisite for the issue of carbon credits to proponents of ‘eligible sequestration offsets projects’ under the Carbon Credits (Carbon Farming Initiative) Act 2011 (Cth) (‘Carbon Farming Act’). This article examines the extent to which current State carbon sequestration rights support the offsets regime established by the Carbon Farming Act. The Commonwealth Act is concerned with allocating responsibilities to ensure the maintenance of the carbon sequestration, while the State Acts confer commercial rights in the carbon and leave the responsibilities to be allocated by private agreements. The carbon sequestration rights as defined by state laws do not confer the rights of access and management over land that a project proponent needs in order to discharge its responsibilities to maintain the carbon sequestration.

Inventory procedures for smallholder and community woodlots in the Philippines : methods, initial findings and insights

This paper details the processes and challenges involved in collecting inventory data from smallholder and community woodlots on Leyte Island, Philippines. Over the period from 2005 through to 2012, 253 woodlots at 170 sites were sampled as part of a large multidisciplinary project, resulting in a substantial timber inventory database. The inventory was undertaken to provide information for three separate but interrelated studies, namely (1) tree growth, performance and timber availability from private smallholder woodlots on Leyte Island; (2) tree growth and performance of mixed-species plantings of native species; and (3) the assessment of reforestation outcomes from various forms of reforestation. A common procedure for establishing plots within each site was developed and applied in each study, although the basis of site selection varied. A two-stage probability proportion to size sampling framework was developed to select smallholder woodlots for inclusion in the inventory. In contrast, community-based forestry woodlots were selected using stratified random sampling. Challenges encountered in undertaking the inventory were mostly associated with the need to consult widely before the commencement of the inventory and problems in identifying woodlots for inclusion. Most smallholder woodlots were only capable of producing merchantable volumes of less than 44 % of the site potential due to a lack of appropriate silviculture. There was a clear bimodal distribution of proportion that the woodlots comprised of the total smallholding area. This bimodality reflects two major motivations for smallholders to establish woodlots, namely timber production and to secure land tenure.

Growing biodiverse carbon-rich forests

Regrowing forests on cleared land is a key strategy to achieve both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation globally. Maximizing these co-benefits, however, remains theoretically and technically challenging because of the complex relationship between carbon sequestration and biodiversity in forests, the strong influence of climate variability and landscape position on forest development, the large number of restoration strategies possible, and long time-frames needed to declare success. Through the synthesis of three decades of knowledge on forest dynamics and plant functional traits combined with decision science, we demonstrate that we cannot always maximize carbon sequestration by simply increasing the functional trait diversity of trees planted. The relationships between plant functional diversity, carbon sequestration rates above-ground and in the soil are dependent on climate and landscape positions. We show how to manage ‘identities’ and ‘complementarities’ between plant functional traits in order to achieve systematically maximal co-benefits in various climate and landscape contexts. We provide examples of optimal planting and thinning rules that satisfy this ecological strategy and guide the restoration of forests that are rich in both carbon and plant functional diversity. Our framework provides the first mechanistic approach for generating decision-making rules that can be used to manage forests for multiple objectives, and supports joined carbon credit and biodiversity conservation initiatives, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation REDD+. The decision framework can also be linked to species distribution models and socio-economic models in order to find restoration solutions that maximize simultaneously biodiversity, carbon stocks and other ecosystem services across landscapes. Our study provides the foundation for developing and testing cost-effective and adaptable forest management rules to achieve biodiversity, carbon sequestration and other socio-economic co-benefits under global change.

Impact of high PV penetration on distribution transformer insulation life

The reliable operation of distribution systems is critically dependent on detailed understanding of load impacts on distribution transformer insulation systems. This paper estimates the impact of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) generation on a typical 200-kVA, 22/0.415-kV distribution transformer life under different operating conditions. This transformer supplies a suburban area with a high penetration of roof top photovoltaic systems. The transformer loads and the phase distribution of the PV systems are significantly unbalanced. Oil and hot-spot temperature and remnant life of distribution transformer under different PV and balance scenarios are calculated. It is shown that PV can significantly extend the transformer life.

Detouring to Grafton : the Sydney Botanic Gardens and the making of an Australian urban aesthetic

For the last seventy-five years Grafton has celebrated the Jacaranda Festival in late October. The festival commences in the town square with the crowning of the Jacaranda Queen and ends a week later with a parade through the town. The event is now a major regional tourist attraction that aims to bring locals and visitors together to celebrate everything purple. During this week one can attend the jacaranda children's party, the jacaranda maypole dancing, the jacaranda choral service or the jacaranda organ recital. Local businesses are encouraged to compete in the decorated window displays competition and everyone can join in the procession. The festival pays homage to the extraordinary display of beautiful jacaranda blooms which carpet the city during this time. The festival was inaugurated in 1935 when the slow growing jacarandas planted in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries were coming to maturity...

Making mangoes move

A landscape of mangoes most likely brings to mind a place in a tropical location. By the end of the nineteenth century that place could have been located on any continent in the world. Mangoes were found in geographic locations; in scientific institutions; as crop plants; and as a backyard trees. Here I trace the movement of mangoes Mangifera indica Linn., focusing on the transnational links formed through colonial botanic gardens in Australia. Botanic gardens were largely understood through their work in establishing economically successful plantation crops, such as sugar and tea. Mangoes were not a success crop of the age of botanic imperialism. Instead, mangoes were simply one species among the millions of plants that botanic gardens moved in addition to these well known commercial crops. Colonial science moved plants for a myriad of other types of reasons, for ornament, for curiosity, for lesser commercial purposes and for pure science. In each site the mango emerged, the discourses and technologies that traveled with it changed according to local needs. Indeed, rather than finding mangoes located in one place, tracing their movement demonstrates that this was an extended landscape connecting these things across time and space...

Ecological design with respect to the environment of large-scale marina developments in Queensland

Ecological principles have been employed to assist in the sustainability of a suite of 'gateway' marinas currently being developed in Queensland. Tasks included (a) location and fostering of core remnant native vegetation areas, (b) understanding the dynamic patterns of region behaviour using the ecological strategies employed by key flora and fauna species, (c) promoting those native wildlife species best characterising the region, and (d) allocating management actions along elongated buffer zones to the catchment headwaters (rather than only peripheral to the property). The design of infrastructure and its relationship to sustainable landscape development is lacking such a response int eh planning and detailing of new marinas. This paper distinguishes between the practice of landscape ecology and the design of ecological landscapes, offering examples of the principles of the latter in support of the concept of ecological landscape practice.

Acacia Light Wall

The Acacia Light Wall is a permanent public artwork within the 3 stage Eden on the Yarra – a residential / commercial development on Victoria Street Abbotsford, Melbourne. The work was commissioned by the Hampton Group for Acacia Place, the first building in the development. The stylised screen was inspired by tangled wattle trees (Australia’s most common Acacia). The work consists of two walls, made from laser cut aluminium screen, acrylic ‘windows” Philips Colour Kinetic controllable LED (1250 nodes), Philips Colour Kinetics control ‘iPlayers”. One wall is 10 m long x 3 to 5 metres and the second is 12m by 3m. The windows are lit by an array of 600+ LED’s in each wall. These lights change colour from week to week marking the progress of the seasons. We worked with the project horticulturalist to develop a palate of colours for each week’s ‘light show’ that was drawn from local flowers and foliage likely to be in bloom that week. The lighting display is not static but rather a very slow moving (morphing) light show. It isn’t fast and flashy. Instead it’s restful and profound.

Integrated approach for diagnostics and prognostics of HP LNG pump based on health state probability estimation

Effective machine fault prognostic technologies can lead to elimination of unscheduled downtime and increase machine useful life and consequently lead to reduction of maintenance costs as well as prevention of human casualties in real engineering asset management. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique and historical failure knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. To estimate a discrete machine degradation state which can represent the complex nature of machine degradation effectively, the proposed prognostic model employed a classification algorithm which can use a number of damage sensitive features compared to conventional time series analysis techniques for accurate long-term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, the five different level data of typical four faults from High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were used for the comparison of intelligent diagnostic test using five different classification algorithms. In addition, two sets of impeller-rub data were analysed and employed to predict the remnant life of pump based on estimation of health state probability using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostics system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

On application of structural decomposition for process model abstraction

Real world business process models may consist of hundreds of elements and have sophisticated structure. Although there are tasks where such models are valuable and appreciated, in general complexity has a negative influence on model comprehension and analysis. Thus, means for managing the complexity of process models are needed. One approach is abstraction of business process models-creation of a process model which preserves the main features of the initial elaborate process model, but leaves out insignificant details. In this paper we study the structural aspects of process model abstraction and introduce an abstraction approach based on process structure trees (PST). The developed approach assures that the abstracted process model preserves the ordering constraints of the initial model. It surpasses pattern-based process model abstraction approaches, allowing to handle graph-structured process models of arbitrary structure. We also provide an evaluation of the proposed approach.

The triconnected abstraction of process models

Companies use business process models to represent their working procedures in order to deploy services to markets, to analyze them, and to improve upon them. Competitive markets necessitate complex procedures, which lead to large process specifications with sophisticated structures. Real world process models can often incorporate hundreds of modeling constructs. While a large degree of detail complicates the comprehension of the processes, it is essential to many analysis tasks. This paper presents a technique to abstract, i.e., to simplify process models. Given a detailed model, we introduce abstraction rules which generalize process fragments in order to bring the model to a higher abstraction level. The approach is suited for the abstraction of large process specifications in order to aid model comprehension as well as decomposing problems of process model analysis. The work is based on process structure trees that have recently been introduced to the field of business process management.

Apple skin patterning is associated with differential expression of MYb10

Background Some apple (Malus × domestica Borkh.) varieties have attractive striping patterns, a quality attribute that is important for determining apple fruit market acceptance. Most apple cultivars (e.g. 'Royal Gala') produce fruit with a defined fruit pigment pattern, but in the case of 'Honeycrisp' apple, trees can produce fruits of two different kinds: striped and blushed. The causes of this phenomenon are unknown. Results Here we show that striped areas of 'Honeycrisp' and 'Royal Gala' are due to sectorial increases in anthocyanin concentration. Transcript levels of the major biosynthetic genes and MYB10, a transcription factor that upregulates apple anthocyanin production, correlated with increased anthocyanin concentration in stripes. However, nucleotide changes in the promoter and coding sequence of MYB10 do not correlate with skin pattern in 'Honeycrisp' and other cultivars differing in peel pigmentation patterns. A survey of methylation levels throughout the coding region of MYB10 and a 2.5 Kb region 5' of the ATG translation start site indicated that an area 900 bp long, starting 1400 bp upstream of the translation start site, is highly methylated. Cytosine methylation was present in all three contexts, with higher methylation levels observed for CHH and CHG (where H is A, C or T) than for CG. Comparisons of methylation levels of the MYB10 promoter in 'Honeycrisp' red and green stripes indicated that they correlate with peel phenotypes, with an enrichment of methylation observed in green stripes. Conclusions Differences in anthocyanin levels between red and green stripes can be explained by differential transcript accumulation of MYB10. Different levels of MYB10 transcript in red versus green stripes are inversely associated with methylation levels in the promoter region. Although observed methylation differences are modest, trends are consistent across years and differences are statistically significant. Methylation may be associated with the presence of a TRIM retrotransposon within the promoter region, but the presence of the TRIM element alone cannot explain the phenotypic variability observed in 'Honeycrisp'. We suggest that methylation in the MYB10 promoter is more variable in 'Honeycrisp' than in 'Royal Gala', leading to more variable color patterns in the peel of this cultivar.

Bluetooth and Wi-Fi MAC address based crowd data collection and monitoring : benefits, challenges and enhancement

This paper firstly presents the benefits and critical challenges on the use of Bluetooth and Wi-Fi for crowd data collection and monitoring. The major challenges include antenna characteristics, environment’s complexity and scanning features. Wi-Fi and Bluetooth are compared in this paper in terms of architecture, discovery time, popularity of use and signal strength. Type of antennas used and the environment’s complexity such as trees for outdoor and partitions for indoor spaces highly affect the scanning range. The aforementioned challenges are empirically evaluated by “real” experiments using Bluetooth and Wi-Fi Scanners. The issues related to the antenna characteristics are also highlighted by experimenting with different antenna types. Novel scanning approaches including Overlapped Zones and Single Point Multi-Range detection methods will be then presented and verified by real-world tests. These novel techniques will be applied for location identification of the MAC IDs captured that can extract more information about people movement dynamics.