Evaluating explanations about drug prescriptions: effects of varying the nature of information about side effects and its relative position in explanations

This study evaluates computer-generated written explanations about drug prescriptions that are based on an analysis of both patient and doctor informational needs. Three experiments examine the effects of varying the type of information given about the possible side effects of the medication, and the order of information within the explanation. Experiment 1 investigated the effects of these two factors on people's ratings of how good they consider the explanations to be and of their perceived likelihood of taking the medication, as well as on their memory for the information in the explanation. Experiment 2 further examined the effects of varying information about side effects by separating out the contribution of number and severity of side effects. It was found that participants in this study did not “like” explanations that described severe side effects, and also judged that they would be less likely to take the medication if given such explanations. Experiment 3 therefore investigated whether information about severe side effects could be presented in such a way as to increase judgements of how good explanations are thought to be, as well as the perceived likelihood of adherence. The results showed some benefits of providing additional explanatory information.

Characteristics and variability of storm tracks in the north Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaska

The North Pacific and Bering Sea regions represent loci of cyclogenesis and storm track activity. In this paper climatological properties of extratropical storms in the North Pacific/Bering Sea are presented based upon aggregate statistics of individual storm tracks calculated by means of a feature-tracking algorithm run using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data from 1948/49 to 2008, provided by the NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Climate Diagnostics Center. Storm identification is based on the 850-hPa relative vorticity field (ζ) instead of the often-used mean sea level pressure; ζ is a prognostic field, a good indicator of synoptic-scale dynamics, and is directly related to the wind speed. Emphasis extends beyond winter to provide detailed consideration of all seasons. Results show that the interseasonal variability is not as large during the spring and autumn seasons. Most of the storm variables—genesis, intensity, track density—exhibited a maxima pattern that was oriented along a zonal axis. From season to season this axis underwent a north–south shift and, in some cases, a rotation to the northeast. This was determined to be a result of zonal heating variations and midtropospheric moisture patterns. Barotropic processes have an influence in shaping the downstream end of storm tracks and, together with the blocking influence of the coastal orography of northwest North America, result in high lysis concentrations, effectively making the Gulf of Alaska the “graveyard” of Pacific storms. Summer storms tended to be longest in duration. Temporal trends tended to be weak over the study area. SST did not emerge as a major cyclogenesis control in the Gulf of Alaska.

Probing the large-scale topology of the heliospheric magnetic field using Jovian electrons

Jupiter’s magnetosphere acts as a point source of near-relativistic electrons within the heliosphere. In this study, three solar cycles of Jovian electron data in near-Earth space are examined. Jovian electron intensity is found to peak for an ideal Parker spiral connection, but with considerable spread about this point. Assuming the peak in Jovian electron counts indicates the best magnetic connection to Jupiter, we find a clear trend for fast and slow solar wind to be over- and under-wound with respect to the ideal Parker spiral, respectively. This is shown to be well explained in terms of solar wind stream interactions. Thus, modulation of Jovian electrons by corotating interaction regions (CIRs) may primarily be the result of changing magnetic connection, rather than CIRs acting as barriers to cross-field diffusion. By using Jovian electrons to remote sensing magnetic connectivity with Jupiter’s magnetosphere, we suggest that they provide a means to validate solar wind models between 1 and 5 AU, even when suitable in situ solar wind observations are not available. Furthermore, using Jovian electron observations as probes of heliospheric magnetic topology could provide insight into heliospheric magnetic field braiding and turbulence, as well as any systematic under-winding of the heliospheric magnetic field relative to the Parker spiral from footpoint motion of the magnetic field.

TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems

The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is a World Weather Research Programme project. One of its main objectives is to enhance collaboration on the development of ensemble prediction between operational centers and universities by increasing the availability of ensemble prediction system (EPS) data for research. This study analyzes the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by nine different EPSs archived as part of the TIGGE project for the 6-month time period of 1 February 2008–31 July 2008, which included a sample of 774 cyclones. An objective feature tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast verification statistics have then been produced [using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis as the truth] for cyclone position, intensity, and propagation speed, showing large differences between the different EPSs. The results show that the ECMWF ensemble mean and control have the highest level of skill for all cyclone properties. The Japanese Meteorological Administration (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Met Office (UKMO), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) have 1 day less skill for the position of cyclones throughout the forecast range. The relative performance of the different EPSs remains the same for cyclone intensity except for NCEP, which has larger errors than for position. NCEP, the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) all have faster intensity error growth in the earlier part of the forecast. They are also very underdispersive and significantly underpredict intensities, perhaps due to the comparatively low spatial resolutions of these EPSs not being able to accurately model the tilted structure essential to cyclone growth and decay. There is very little difference between the levels of skill of the ensemble mean and control for cyclone position, but the ensemble mean provides an advantage over the control for all EPSs except CPTEC in cyclone intensity and there is an advantage for propagation speed for all EPSs. ECMWF and JMA have an excellent spread–skill relationship for cyclone position. The EPSs are all much more underdispersive for cyclone intensity and propagation speed than for position, with ECMWF and CMC performing best for intensity and CMC performing best for propagation speed. ECMWF is the only EPS to consistently overpredict cyclone intensity, although the bias is small. BoM, NCEP, UKMO, and CPTEC significantly underpredict intensity and, interestingly, all the EPSs underpredict the propagation speed, that is, the cyclones move too slowly on average in all EPSs.

Intensity perturbations due to the v3, v4 Coriolis interaction in methane

Formulas are obtained for the intensity asymmetry (Herman-Wallis) factors in the ν3 and ν4 fundamentals of methane due to the ζ34 Coriolis interaction. The results are also applicable to the ν3 and ν4 bands of SF6.

Using a runway paradigm to assess the relative strength of rats' motivations for enrichment objects

Laboratory animals should be provided with enrichment objects in their cages; however, it is first necessary to test whether the proposed enrichment objects provide benefits that increase the animals’ welfare. The two main paradigms currently used to assess proposed enrichment objects are the choice test, which is limited to determining relative frequency of choice, and consumer demand studies, which can indicate the strength of a preference but are complex to design. Here, we propose a third methodology: a runway paradigm, which can be used to assess the strength of an animal’s motivation for enrichment objects, is simpler to use than consumer demand studies, and is faster to complete than typical choice tests. Time spent with objects in a standard choice test was used to rank several enrichment objects in order to compare with the ranking found in our runway paradigm. The rats ran significantly more times, ran faster, and interacted longer with objects with which they had previously spent the most time. It was concluded that this simple methodology is suitable for measuring rats’ motivation to reach enrichment objects. This can be used to assess the preference for different types of enrichment objects or to measure reward system processes.

Hydrolyzable tannin structures influence relative globular and random coil protein binding strengths

Binding parameters for the interactions of pentagalloyl glucose (PGG) and four hydrolyzable tannins (representing gallotannins and ellagitannins) with gelatin and bovine serum albumin (BSA) have been determined from isothermal titration calorimetry data. Equilibrium binding constants determined for the interaction of PGG and isolated mixtures of tara gallotannins and of sumac gallotannins with gelatin and BSA were of the same order of magnitude for each tannin (in the range of 10(4)-10(5) M-1 for stronger binding sites when using a binding model consisting of two sets of multiple binding sites). In contrast, isolated mixtures of chestnut ellagitannins and of myrabolan ellagitannins exhibited 3-4 orders of magnitude greater equilibrium binding constants for the interaction with gelatin (similar to 2 x 10(6) M-1) than for that with BSA (similar to 8 x 10(2) M-1). Binding stoichiometries revealed that the stronger binding sites on gelatin outnumbered those on BSA by a ratio of at least similar to 2:1 for all of the hydrolyzable tannins studied. Overall, the data revealed that relative binding constants for the interactions with gelatin and BSA are dependent on the structural flexibility of the tannin molecule.

Flowering intensity in white yam (Dioscorea rotundata)

White or Guinea yam (Dioscorea rotundata), grown for its underground tubers, is an important food in West Africa. Progress in yam breeding is constrained by variable flowering behaviour, making hybridization difficult. Yam clones may be dioecious, monoecious or hermaphrodite with variable sex ratios. The proportion of plants that flower and the flowering intensity also vary with season and location. The objective of the present work was to investigate whether variation in flowering behaviour was related to factors determining rate of development (photoperiod and temperature through sowing date, location and year) or growth (cumulative solar radiation and temperature). Sex ratios, the proportion of plants that had flower buds and open flowers, and the number of flowers or spikes was recorded in one male (TDr 131) and one female (TDr 99-9) clone of white yam grown in the field in Nigeria at three locations and at different sowing dates. Clone TDr 131 was uniformly male flowering, while clone TDr 99-9 exhibited a number of sex types with gynoecious, monoecious and trimonoecious plants observed. The proportion of flowering plants was low in both clones, averaging 0.34 in clone TDr 131 and 0.13 in clone TDr 99-9. Day of vine emergence had a significant and contrasting effect on the proportion of flowering plants and on flowering intensity in the two clones. In clone TDr 131, the proportion of flowering plants and flowering intensity declined with later vine emergence at all locations (r=0.43-0.53, P<0.05), whereas in clone TDr 99-9 the proportion of flowering plants increased with later emergence (r=0.46, P<0.01). In clone TDr 131, this response was strongly associated with warmer temperatures (r=0.49-0.50; P<0.05) and greater cumulative radiation (r=0.85-0.93; P<0.001) between vine emergence and flowering, rather than photoperiod at vine emergence. This suggests that flowering behaviour in the male clone TDr 131 is strongly influenced by factors that affect growth rather than development. Clone TDr 99-9, on the other hand, exhibited no clear relations between flowering and growth or developmental factors, though the proportion of flowering plants and flowering intensity was greatest at planting dates close to the longest day and at temperatures of 25-26 degrees C. This might suggest that flowering behaviour in clone TDr 99-9 is controlled by photothermal responses.

Changes in light intensity during the rearing period can influence egg production in domestic fowl

1. A total of 240 Shaver White and 240 ISA Brown pullets that had been reared in multi-bird cages on a 10-h photoperiod, and maintained at a light intensity of 3 or 25 lux, or changed from 3 to 25 lux or from 25 to 3 lux at 9 or 16 weeks of age, were moved into individual-bird cages at 20 weeks and transferred to 15-h photoperiods at 25 lux. 2. In both breeds, birds transferred from 3 to 25 lux at 16 or 20 weeks laid significantly more eggs than birds maintained on the brighter intensity from one day or increased to it at 9 weeks. 3. Mean egg weight, shell deformation, albumen height, feed intake and body weight gain in lay were not significantly affected by the light intensity treatments during the rearing period. There was, however, a small, but significant, negative correlation of egg numbers with mean egg weight, although this only partially explained the difference in egg numbers. The differences in egg production were unrelated to rate of sexual maturation.

Changes in light intensity can influence age at sexual maturity in domestic pullets

1. Shaver White and ISA Brown pullets were reared to 140 d in groups of 8 in cages on a 10-h photoperiod of incandescent light and maintained at an illuminance of 3 or 25 lux, or transferred from 3 to 25 lux or from 25 to 3 lux at 63 or 112 d of age. 2. There was no significant difference in sexual maturity, measured as eggs per 100 bird.d at 139 and 140 d, for ISA Brown maintained on 3 or 25 lux, but Shaver White pullets exposed to constant 3 lux matured significantly later than those maintained on 25 lux. 3. In Shaver Whites, sexual maturity was significantly delayed by an increase from 3 to 25 lux at 63 and 112 d, and advanced by a decrease from 25 to 3 lux at 112 d. Sexual maturity of ISA Browns was not significantly affected by a change in illuminance at 63 or 112 d, though responses were in the same direction as for Shaver Whites. 4. In both breeds, total feed consumed to 112 d was higher for birds on 3 lux than 25 lux, but lower between 112 d and 140 d when birds on 25 lux underwent rapid sexual development. In both breeds, body weight at 63 d was higher for birds exposed to 3 lux than 25 lux, but body weight gain thereafter was similar for the two light intensities. 5. In both breeds, plasma luteinising hormone (LH) concentration at 63 and 112 d was lower in birds maintained on 3 lux than 25 lux. At 63 and 112 d, transfers from 25 to 3 lux depressed, whereas transfers from 3 to 25 lux at 63 d, but not at 112 d, increased plasma LH. 6. Advances or delays in sexual maturity induced by changes in illuminance were not correlated with differences in feed intake, body weight gain, or with changes in plasma LH. 7. One possible explanation for the inverse relationship between the direction of change in illuminance at 63 and 112 d in pullets exposed to a 10-h photoperiod and the age at which they became sexually mature is that changes in light intensity and/or spectral composition affect the entrainment of the circadian rhythm of photoinducibility, to effect a phase shift in the photoinducible phase and/or the responsiveness of phototransduction pathways.

PGR forum: serving the crop wild relative user community

The Euro-Mediterranean region is an important centre for the diversity of crop wild relatives. Crops, such as oats (Avena sativa), sugar beet (Beta vulgaris), apple (Malus domestica), annual meadow grass (Festuca pratensis), white clover (Trifolium repens), arnica (Arnica montana), asparagus (Asparagus officinalis), lettuce (Lactuca sativa), and sage (Salvia officinalis) etc., all have wild relatives in the region. The European Community funded project, PGR Forum (www.pgrforum.org) is building an online information system to provide access to crop wild relative data to a broad user community; including plant breeders, protected area managers, policy-makers, conservationists, taxonomists and the wider public. The system will include data on uses, geographical distribution, biology, population and habitat information, threats (including IUCN Red List assessments) and conservation actions. This information is vital for the continued sustainable utilisation and conservation of crop wild relatives. Two major databases have been utilised as the backbone to a Euro-Mediterranean crop wild relative catalogue, which forms the core of the information system: Euro+Med PlantBase (www.euromed.org.uk) and Mansfeld’s World Database of Agricultural and Horticultural Crops (http://mansfeld.ipk-gatersleben.de). By matching the genera found within the two databases, a preliminary list of crop wild relatives has been produced. Around 20,000 of the 30,000+ species listed in Euro+Med PlantBase can be considered crop wild relatives, i.e. those species found within the same genus as a crop. The list is currently being refined by implementing a priority ranking system based on the degree of relatedness of taxa to the associated crop.