A probabilistic approach to the estimation of regional photovoltaic power generation using meteorological data

In Germany the upscaling algorithm is currently the standard approach for evaluating the PV power produced in a region. This method involves spatially interpolating the normalized power of a set of reference PV plants to estimate the power production by another set of unknown plants. As little information on the performances of this method could be found in the literature, the first goal of this thesis is to conduct an analysis of the uncertainty associated to this method. It was found that this method can lead to large errors when the set of reference plants has different characteristics or weather conditions than the set of unknown plants and when the set of reference plants is small. Based on these preliminary findings, an alternative method is proposed for calculating the aggregate power production of a set of PV plants. A probabilistic approach has been chosen by which a power production is calculated at each PV plant from corresponding weather data. The probabilistic approach consists of evaluating the power for each frequently occurring value of the parameters and estimating the most probable value by averaging these power values weighted by their frequency of occurrence. Most frequent parameter sets (e.g. module azimuth and tilt angle) and their frequency of occurrence have been assessed on the basis of a statistical analysis of parameters of approx. 35 000 PV plants. It has been found that the plant parameters are statistically dependent on the size and location of the PV plants. Accordingly, separate statistical values have been assessed for 14 classes of nominal capacity and 95 regions in Germany (two-digit zip-code areas). The performances of the upscaling and probabilistic approaches have been compared on the basis of 15 min power measurements from 715 PV plants provided by the German distribution system operator LEW Verteilnetz. It was found that the error of the probabilistic method is smaller than that of the upscaling method when the number of reference plants is sufficiently large (>100 reference plants in the case study considered in this chapter). When the number of reference plants is limited (<50 reference plants for the considered case study), it was found that the proposed approach provides a noticeable gain in accuracy with respect to the upscaling method.

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassifi cation. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5–2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6–40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7–1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1–1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued eff orts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.

Gestão colegiada da cadeia produtiva da cajucultura: o papel do comitê gestor no Rio Grande do Norte à luz do desenvolvimento regional sustentável

The theme of this dissertation is the collegiate management in the cashew cultivation s productive chain by the reading of the Managerial Committee s role in accordance with Sustainable Regional Development. The research had as aim to reveal the way as Managerial Committee s members of cashew cultivation s productive chain interpret the economic, social and environmental dimensions to the sustainability of entrepreneurships, using as interpretative base Sachs (2004) theoretical model. The theoretical reference is based in precepts of Solidarity Economy as a strategy to the Sustainable Regional Development. To reach this aim was done a case study, based in analysis of contents and semi-structured interviews with the solidarities economic entrepreneurships that integrate the Committee and with the group of Entities of Support and Fomentation responsible for formulating and conducting actions in favour of development of the chain. The research permitted to conclude that the economic, mainly, and social dimension, secondly, to super-impose the environmental dimension. The actions in favour of the chain are yet restricted and with low effectiveness when interpreted, in an integrated way, by a side, by the informers of this research and, by another side, in accordance with precepts of sustainable development

Síndrome de Burnout : um estudo com guias de turismo regional em Natal-RN

Burnout is a psychological syndrome triggered in response to continuous exposure to interpersonal stressors. It is considered a multifactorial construct, which is commonly characterized by three dimensions: emotional exhaustion, dehumanization, and lack of personal accomplishment.This study aimed to verify if the three characteristics of burnout (exhaustion, lack of dehumanization and personal accomplishment) are present in people working as guides Tourism in Natal - RN. It is a descriptive and quantitative study. 109 subjects were surveyed. Data collection was done through the use of questionnaires, the instrument used was the characterization of the Burnout Scale (ECB) created and validated in Brazil by Trocoli and Tamayo (2000). In order to analyze data we used descriptive statistics, analysis of core measures, exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, reliability analysis, cluster analysis, multiple discriminant and Spearman correlation. Factor analysis identified four factors that explain 58.3% of the total variance. Those factors were named exhaustion, deception, avoidance, and dehumanization. The reliability of the instrument, as measured by Cronbach's Alpha was 0.918, which is considered excellent reliability. The 109 subjects were grouped into three cluster, which had the deception, avoidance, and dehumanization as discriminant. It is possible to conclude that the characteristics of burnout syndrome are present in the studied population where 19 people are on the high level of burnout, moderate in 32 and 56 in the light. The correlations between socio-demographic variables studied and the dimensions of burnout, were few and weak. The variable leave for health reasons in the study appeared to be related to feelings of exhaustion and avoidance behavior appeared related to younger individuals and who work only in the activity of Receptive Tourism Guide. Verification of the incidence of burnout in individuals surveyed suggest the need to adopt intervention strategies are individual, organizational and / or combined

Análise do contributo das acessibilidades rodoviárias para o desenvolvimento regional: o caso da Nut II do Centro

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização em Vias de Comunicação e Transportes

Contra as Secas: a engenharia e as origens de um planejamento regional no nordeste brasileiro

Droughts surfaced in 1877 as a crucial problem for the birthing Brazilian nation. Engineers, who formed the country's technical and scientific elite, took it upon themselves to study, understand and fight the problem through planned actions of intervention on space. This work, based on proposals and discussions contained in engineering magazines and reports, aims to provide elements for the comprehension of how these systematized actions against droughts, in the Iate nineteenth and early twentieth century, contributed to spatial analysis and the formation of a (then-inexistent) regional and territorial planning discipline in Brazi!. Engineers, by taking up the position of masterminds in the country's modernization, guaranteed for themselves personal economic stability, social prestige and political power. By understanding nature, either as a resource to be exploited or an adversary to national progress, they contributed to the delimitation of the region now known as the Northeast. By seeking to understand the drought phenomenon, they created knowledge about the space they sought to intervene on; by constructing their projects amid political and economical difficulty, they changed the organizational structures of cities and country in the northeast. The proposals for açudes (Iarge water reservoirs) allowed the fixation of population and the resistance against droughts; the roads - railroads and automotive roadways - connected the sertão to the capitais and the coast, speeding up help to the affected populations during droughts and allowing the circulation of goods so as to strengthen the local economies in normal rimes. The adopted practices and techniques, adapted from foreign experience and developed through trial and improvement, were consolidated as an eminently spatial intervention course, even if a theoretical body of regional or territorial planning wasn't formed in Brazil. Regional Planning proper was first applied in the country in the Northeast itself, in the 1950s, based off an economical view of reality in order to achieve development. The engineer's work prior tothat date, however, cannot be dlsconsldered. It was proved that, despite facing financial and political hurdles, engineers had a profound commitment to the problem and intended to act systematically to transform the economical and social relations in the region, in order to be victorious in their struggle against droughts

New morpho-bathymetric and tectono-stratigraphic data on Naples and Salerno gulfs (southern tyrrhenian sea, Italy) derived from bathymetric and seismic data analysis and integrated geological interpretation

New morpho-bathymetric and tectono-stratigraphic data on Naples and Salerno Gulfs, derived from bathymetric and seismic data analysis and integrated geologic interpretation are here presented. The CUBE(Combined Uncertainty Bathymetric Estimator) method has been applied to complex morphologies, such as the Capri continental slope and the related geological structures occurring in the Salerno Gulf.The bathymetric data analysis has been carried out for marine geological maps of the whole Campania continental margin at scales ranging from 1:25.000 to 1:10.000, including focused examples in Naples and Salerno Gulfs, Naples harbour, Capri and Ischia Islands and Salerno Valley. Seismic data analysis has allowed for the correlation of main morpho-structural lineaments recognized at a regional scale through multichannel profiles with morphological features cropping out at the sea bottom, evident from bathymetry.Main fault systems in the area have been represented on a tectonic sketch map, including the master fault located northwards to the Salerno Valley half graben. Some normal faults parallel to the master fault have been interpreted from the slope map derived from bathymetric data. A complex system of antithetic faults bound two morpho-structural highs located 20km to the south of the Capri Island. Some hints of compressional reactivation of normal faults in an extensional setting involving the whole Campania continental margin have been shown from seismic interpretation.

Research-based spin-offs as agents of knowledge dissemination: evidence from the analysis of innovation networks

The paper addresses the role played by research-based spin-offs (RBSOs) as knowledge dissemination mechanisms, through their position in knowledge networks. For this purpose the paper analyses the formal networks established by the Portuguese RBSOs in the context of publicly funded research, technology and pre-commercial product development projects, and investigates their configuration along two levels. At organisational level, in order to understand whether RBSOs extend their reach beyond the academic sphere; and if they do, whether they relate with similar firms or connect to organisations located downstream in the knowledge value chain, and which is their position in networks involving both research organisations and other firms. At spatial level, in order to understand whether RBSOs extend their reach beyond the region where they are created, thus potentially acting as connectors between diverse regions. The analysis starts from the population of RBSOs created in Portugal until 2007 (387) and identifies those that have established formal technological relationships as part of projects funded by all the programmes launched in the period 1993-2012. As a result, the analysis encompasses 192 collaborative projects and involves 82 spin-offs and 281 partners, of which only 20% are research organisations, the remaining being other firms and a variety of other user organisations. The results, although still preliminary, provide some insights into the knowledge networking behaviour of the RBSOs. As expected, research organisations are a central actor in spin-offs’ networks, being the sole partner for some of them. But half of the RBSOs have moved beyond the academic sphere, being frequently a central element in tripartite technological relationships between research and other organisations and occupying an intermediation position in the network, thus potentially acting as facilitators in knowledge circulation and transformation. Also as expected, RBSOs are predominantly located in the main metropolitan areas and tend to relate with organisations similarly located. But while geographical proximity emerges as important in the choice of partners, in about half of the cases, RBSOs knowledge networks have extended beyond regional boundaries. Given their central position in the network this suggests a role as connectors across regions that will be explored in subsequent research.

Research-based spin-offs as agents of knowledge dissemination: evidence from the analysis of innovation networks

The paper addresses the role played by research-based spin-offs (RBSOs) as knowledge dissemination mechanisms, through their position in knowledge networks. For this purpose the paper analyses the formal networks established by Portuguese RBSOs, in the context of publicly funded research, technology and pre-commercial product development projects, and investigates their configuration across two levels. At organisational level, in order to understand whether RBSOs extend their reach beyond the academic sphere; and if they do, whether they connect to organisations located downstream in the knowledge value chain, and which is their position in networks involving both research organisations and other firms. At spatial level, in order to understand whether RBSOs extend their reach beyond the region where they are created, thus potentially acting as connectors between diverse regions. The analysis starts from the population of RBSOs created in Portugal until 2007 (327 firms) and identifies those that have established formal technological relationships, as part of projects funded by all the relevant programmes launched in the period 1993-2012. As a result, the analysis encompasses 192 collaborative projects and involves 82 spin-offs and 281 partners, of which only 20% are research organisations, the remaining being other firms and a variety of other downstream organisations. The results, although still preliminary, provide some insights into the knowledge networking behaviour of the RBSOs. As expected, research organisations are a central actor in spin-offs’ networks, being the sole partner for some of them. But half of the RBSOs have moved beyond the academic sphere, being frequently a central element in tripartite technological relationships between research and other organisations, and occupying an intermediation position in the network, thus potentially acting as facilitators in knowledge circulation and transformation. Also as expected, RBSOs are predominantly located in the main metropolitan areas and tend to relate with organisations similarly located. But while geographical proximity emerges as important in the choice of partners, in about half of the cases, RBSOs knowledge networks have extended beyond regional boundaries. Given their central position in the network, this suggests a role as connectors across regions that will be explored in subsequent research.

Origin of an enigmatic regional Mio-Pliocene unconformity on the Demerara plateau

The Demerara plateau, located offshore French Guiana and Suriname, is part of a passive transform continental margin particularly prone to develop slope instabilities, probably in relation to the presence of a free distal border along its steep continental slope. Slope failure occurred at different periods (Cretaceous to Neogene) and shows an overall retrogressive evolution through time. Upslope these failure headscarp, an enigmatic regional MioPliocene unconformity has been discovered through the interpretation of new academic and industrial datasets. The aim of this work is to describe and understand the origin of this surface. Our analysis shows that this unconformity is made of a series of valleys that cross-cut sedimentary strata. Each one of these valleys has a short lateral extent and is closed along two perpendicular directions, which suggests that it could correspond to a highly meandering system, or to some sub-circular depressions. The infill of these features is equivalent to the regional stratigraphic strata found outside the structures, but in a subdued position. This seems to imply that the structures have originated by a local loss of sediments at their base or by sliding processes. Furthermore, these depressions intersect each other through time, while migrating progressively downslope. We discuss a series of hypotheses that try to explain the onset and evolution of these depressions forming the Mio-Pliocene unconformity (Canyons? Slope failures? Contourite moats? Hydrate pockmarks?). Having established that these structures are depressions formed by collapse, and have many similarities with structures recently described in the literature as pockmarks associated with gas hydrate dissolution, we favor this hypothesis. We propose that these hydrate pockmarks form with a mass failure that was triggered by fluid-overpressure development at the base of the hydrate stability zone.

A longitudinal analysis of disproportionality in statewide exclusionary discipline of students with disabilities

The study examined the state-by-state changes in the rates of exclusionary discipline of students with disabilities compared to their non-disabled peers. Historically, students with disabilities have been excluded at rates that are out of proportion with their population. This study used state discipline to investigate the current status of disproportional exclusion of students with disabilities and if there are any regional trends in the discipline of students receiving special education services. Results indicate that in both the 2009-2010 and 2011-2012 school years, there were significant differences between the rates at which students with and without disabilities were disciplined. Students with disabilities were suspended at higher rates during both school years and expelled at higher rates during the 2011-2012 school year. Results also suggest that rates of suspensions and expulsions continue to be high, particularly for students with disabilities. Findings may help states and schools develop policies that promote fair discipline of students with disabilities.

The effect of borders on the linguistic production and perception of regional identity in Louisville, Kentucky

A great deal of scholarly research has addressed the issue of dialect mapping in the United States. These studies, usually based on phonetic or lexical items, aim to present an overall picture of the dialect landscape. But what is often missing in these types of projects is an attention to the borders of a dialect region and to what kinds of identity alignments can be found in such areas. This lack of attention to regional and dialect border identities is surprising, given the salience of such borders for many Americans. This salience is also ignored among dialectologists, as nonlinguists‟ perceptions and attitudes have been generally assumed to be secondary to the analysis of “real” data, such as the phonetic and lexical variables used in traditional dialectology. Louisville, Kentucky is considered as a case study for examining how dialect and regional borders in the United States impact speakers‟ linguistic acts of identity, especially the production and perception of such identities. According to Labov, Ash, and Boberg (2006), Louisville is one of the northernmost cities to be classified as part of the South. Its location on the Ohio River, on the political and geographic border between Kentucky and Indiana, places Louisville on the isogloss between Southern and Midland dialects. Through an examination of language attitude surveys, mental maps, focus group interviews, and production data, I show that identity alignments in borderlands are neither simple nor straightforward. Identity at the border is fluid, complex, and dynamic; speakers constantly negotiate and contest their identities. The analysis shows the ways in which Louisvillians shift between Southern and non-Southern identities, in the active and agentive expression of their amplified awareness of belonging brought about by their position on the border.

Financing local development through crowdfunding: An empirical analysis of social projects in Portugal

Crowdfunding (CF) is an increasingly attractive source to fund social projects. However, to our best knowledge, the study of CF for social purposes has remained largely unexplored in the literature. This research envisages a detailed examination of the role of CF on the early-stage of the social projects at regional level. By comparing the characteristics of the projects available in the Portuguese Social Stock Exchange (PSSE) platform with others that did not use this source of financial support, we explore its role on regional development. The results we got show that, in most cases, both PSSE and Non-Governmental Organizations projects complemented the services offered by the State or by the private sector. Furthermore, about a quarter of the projects present in PSSE operated in areas that were not being addressed neither by the services offered by the State nor by the ones of the private sector. The results attained show that more recent social ventures have a greater propensity to use PSSE. The same is find in those organizations which work closely with the target audience. We also observed that the use of PSSE was correlated with the geographical scope of the Social Venture. The circumstance of having the social organization acting at a local or regional level seems to be strongly associated with the possibility of using social crowdfunding for financing social projects.

Data warehouse para el Centro de Documentación Regional "Juan Bautista Vázquez"

El proceso de toma de decisiones en las bibliotecas universitarias es de suma importancia, sin embargo, se encuentra complicaciones como la gran cantidad de fuentes de datos y los grandes volúmenes de datos a analizar. Las bibliotecas universitarias están acostumbradas a producir y recopilar una gran cantidad de información sobre sus datos y servicios. Las fuentes de datos comunes son el resultado de sistemas internos, portales y catálogos en línea, evaluaciones de calidad y encuestas. Desafortunadamente estas fuentes de datos sólo se utilizan parcialmente para la toma de decisiones debido a la amplia variedad de formatos y estándares, así como la falta de métodos eficientes y herramientas de integración. Este proyecto de tesis presenta el análisis, diseño e implementación del Data Warehouse, que es un sistema integrado de toma de decisiones para el Centro de Documentación Juan Bautista Vázquez. En primer lugar se presenta los requerimientos y el análisis de los datos en base a una metodología, esta metodología incorpora elementos claves incluyendo el análisis de procesos, la calidad estimada, la información relevante y la interacción con el usuario que influyen en una decisión bibliotecaria. A continuación, se propone la arquitectura y el diseño del Data Warehouse y su respectiva implementación la misma que soporta la integración, procesamiento y el almacenamiento de datos. Finalmente los datos almacenados se analizan a través de herramientas de procesamiento analítico y la aplicación de técnicas de Bibliomining ayudando a los administradores del centro de documentación a tomar decisiones óptimas sobre sus recursos y servicios.