Cultural policy and cultural politics in Revolutionary Cuba: re-reading the 'Palabras a los intelectuales' (Words to the Intellectuals)

This article re-reads Fidel Castro's speech to Cuban artists and intellectuals at the Biblioteca Nacional José Martí (National Library) in June 1961. Despite extensive discussion of its famous extract, the speech has rarely been examined in depth. This article thus analyses the entire speech, situating it within its co-text and its context and examining its multiple functions, offering as it does an insight into the social and educational implications of cultural revolution in Cuba and the inevitable tensions inherent in these. The article evaluates the negotiations in the text in the light of their relevance to contemporary cultural debates in Cuba.

'Looking at the Others': Oscar Wilde and the Reading Gaol Archive

In looking at Wilde and the prison, scholarship has understandably focussed on the lengthy and complex De Profundis, and how the prison experience confirmed or re-shaped Wilde as a writer and thinker. Wilde himself claimed to have been saved by the ‘others’ that he encountered in prison, and these ‘others’ have received scant attention. Who were they? How does a greater knowledge of them supplement our sense of the nineteenth-century prison and of Wilde? This essay looks closely at the Reading Gaol archive, tracing out the lives of some of those with whom Wilde was incarcerated and providing analyses of the prison population in Reading while Wilde was there. Aside from yielding the only known photographs of any of the young working-class men in whom Wilde took an interest, the essay seeks to build a more nuanced reading of Wilde's experience. Above all, the aim is to open out the meanings of the Wilde myth, and, in particular, to offer a more socially inclusive version.

Locking-in carbon, locking-out livelihoods? ASM and REDD in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper examines the potential mutual conflict between interventions aimed at formalising artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) on the one hand, and policies implemented in response to the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) initiative on the other. Deforestation caused by ASM undermines sound forest management, and potentially threatens the implementation of REDD. Conversely, the adoption of REDD could further marginalise and criminalise the ASM sector, reducing its contribution to poverty alleviation. Reviewing a series of commonalities between ASM and forest management highlights many difficulties facing policy-makers. Potentially, contradictory outcomes of evolving governance arrangements means novel cross-sectoral institutions will be required in order to realise the full potential of REDD and ASM to address poverty reduction in a complementary fashion. The analysis reiterates the centrality of livelihoods to REDD and the need for policies to take into account local contexts.

The first real-time worldwide ionospheric predictions network: an advance in support of spaceborne experimentation, on-line model validation, and space weather

We report on the first realtime ionospheric predictions network and its capabilities to ingest a global database and forecast F-layer characteristics and "in situ" electron densities along the track of an orbiting spacecraft. A global network of ionosonde stations reported around-the-clock observations of F-region heights and densities, and an on-line library of models provided forecasting capabilities. Each model was tested against the incoming data; relative accuracies were intercompared to determine the best overall fit to the prevailing conditions; and the best-fit model was used to predict ionospheric conditions on an orbit-to-orbit basis for the 12-hour period following a twice-daily model test and validation procedure. It was found that the best-fit model often provided averaged (i.e., climatologically-based) accuracies better than 5% in predicting the heights and critical frequencies of the F-region peaks in the latitudinal domain of the TSS-1R flight path. There was a sharp contrast however, in model-measurement comparisons involving predictions of actual, unaveraged, along-track densities at the 295 km orbital altitude of TSS-1R In this case, extrema in the first-principle models varied by as much as an order of magnitude in density predictions, and the best-fit models were found to disagree with the "in situ" observations of Ne by as much as 140%. The discrepancies are interpreted as a manifestation of difficulties in accurately and self-consistently modeling the external controls of solar and magnetospheric inputs and the spatial and temporal variabilities in electric fields, thermospheric winds, plasmaspheric fluxes, and chemistry.

Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts

Simulation models are widely employed to make probability forecasts of future conditions on seasonal to annual lead times. Added value in such forecasts is reflected in the information they add, either to purely empirical statistical models or to simpler simulation models. An evaluation of seasonal probability forecasts from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction (DEMETER) and ENSEMBLES multi-model ensemble experiments is presented. Two particular regions are considered: Nino3.4 in the Pacific and the Main Development Region in the Atlantic; these regions were chosen before any spatial distribution of skill was examined. The ENSEMBLES models are found to have skill against the climatological distribution on seasonal time-scales. For models in ENSEMBLES that have a clearly defined predecessor model in DEMETER, the improvement from DEMETER to ENSEMBLES is discussed. Due to the long lead times of the forecasts and the evolution of observation technology, the forecast-outcome archive for seasonal forecast evaluation is small; arguably, evaluation data for seasonal forecasting will always be precious. Issues of information contamination from in-sample evaluation are discussed and impacts (both positive and negative) of variations in cross-validation protocol are demonstrated. Other difficulties due to the small forecast-outcome archive are identified. The claim that the multi-model ensemble provides a ‘better’ probability forecast than the best single model is examined and challenged. Significant forecast information beyond the climatological distribution is also demonstrated in a persistence probability forecast. The ENSEMBLES probability forecasts add significantly more information to empirical probability forecasts on seasonal time-scales than on decadal scales. Current operational forecasts might be enhanced by melding information from both simulation models and empirical models. Simulation models based on physical principles are sometimes expected, in principle, to outperform empirical models; direct comparison of their forecast skill provides information on progress toward that goal.

A novel combined biomarker including plasma carotenoids, vitamin C, and ferric reducing antioxidant power is more strongly associated with fruit and vegetable intake than the individual components

BACKGROUND: Monitoring of fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake is fraught with difficulties. Available dietary assessment methods are associated with considerable error, and the use of biomarkers offers an attractive alternative. Few studies to date have examined the use of plasma biomarkers to monitor or predict the F&V intake of volunteers consuming a wide range of intakes from both habitual F&V and manipulated diets. OBJECTIVE: This study tested the hypothesis that an integrated biomarker calculated from a combination of plasma vitamin C, cholesterol-adjusted carotenoid concentration and Ferric Reducing Antioxidant Power (FRAP) had more power to predict F&V intake than each individual biomarker. METHODS: Data from a randomized controlled dietary intervention study [FLAVURS (Flavonoids University of Reading Study); n = 154] in which the test groups observed sequential increases of 2.3, 3.2, and 4.2 portions of F&Vs every 6 wk across an 18-wk period were used in this study. RESULTS: An integrated plasma biomarker was devised that included plasma vitamin C, total cholesterol-adjusted carotenoids, and FRAP values, which better correlated with F&V intake (r = 0.47, P < 0.001) than the individual biomarkers (r = 0.33, P < 0.01; r = 0.37, P < 0.001; and r = 0.14, respectively; P = 0.099). Inclusion of urinary potassium concentration did not significantly improve the correlation. The integrated plasma biomarker predicted F&V intake more accurately than did plasma total cholesterol-adjusted carotenoid concentration, with the difference being significant at visit 2 (P < 0.001) and with a tendency to be significant at visit 1 (P = 0.07). CONCLUSION: Either plasma total cholesterol-adjusted carotenoid concentration or the integrated biomarker could be used to distinguish between high- and moderate-F&V consumers. This trial was registered at www.controlled-trials.com as ISRCTN47748735.

The neurological underpinnings of cluttering: some initial findings

Background Cluttering is a fluency disorder characterised by overly rapid or jerky speech patterns that compromise intelligibility. The neural correlates of cluttering are unknown but theoretical accounts implicate the basal ganglia and medial prefrontal cortex. Dysfunction in these brain areas would be consistent with difficulties in selection and control of speech motor programs that are characteristic of speech disfluencies in cluttering. There is a surprising lack of investigation into this disorder using modern imaging techniques. Here, we used functional MRI to investigate the neural correlates of cluttering. Method We scanned 17 adults who clutter and 17 normally fluent control speakers matched for age and sex. Brain activity was recorded using sparse-sampling functional MRI while participants viewed scenes and either (i) produced overt speech describing the scene or (ii) read out loud a sentence provided that described the scene. Speech was recorded and analysed off line. Differences in brain activity for each condition compared to a silent resting baseline and between conditions were analysed for each group separately (cluster-forming threshold Z > 3.1, extent p < 0.05, corrected) and then these differences were further compared between the two groups (voxel threshold p < 0.01, extent > 30 voxels, uncorrected). Results In both conditions, the patterns of activation in adults who clutter and control speakers were strikingly similar, particularly at the cortical level. Direct group comparisons revealed greater activity in adults who clutter compared to control speakers in the lateral premotor cortex bilaterally and, as predicted, on the medial surface (pre-supplementary motor area). Subcortically, adults who clutter showed greater activity than control speakers in the basal ganglia. Specifically, the caudate nucleus and putamen were overactive in adults who clutter for the comparison of picture description with sentence reading. In addition, adults who clutter had reduced activity relative to control speakers in the lateral anterior cerebellum bilaterally. Eleven of the 17 adults who clutter also stuttered. This comorbid diagnosis of stuttering was found to contribute to the abnormal overactivity seen in the group of adults who clutter in the right ventral premotor cortex and right anterior cingulate cortex. In the remaining areas of abnormal activity seen in adults who clutter compared to controls, the subgroup who clutter and stutter did not differ from the subgroup who clutter but do not stutter. Conclusions Our findings were in good agreement with theoretical predictions regarding the neural correlates of cluttering. We found evidence for abnormal function in the basal ganglia and their cortical output target, the medial prefrontal cortex. The findings are discussed in relation to models of cluttering that point to problems with motor control of speech.

HESS Opinions: On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?

Flood forecasting increasingly relies on numerical weather prediction forecasts to achieve longer lead times. One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is what to dowhen consecutive forecasts are so different that they lead to different conclusions regarding the issuing of warnings or triggering other action. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "Jumpiness", "Turning points", "Continuity" or number of "Swings"). In thsi opinion paper we define forecast inconsistency; discuss the reasons why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse inconsistency; and what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments.

Genetic variant rs17225178 in the ARNT2 gene is associated with Asperger Syndrome

Background Autism Spectrum Conditions (ASC) are neurodevelopmental conditions characterized by difficulties in communication and social interaction, alongside unusually repetitive behaviours and narrow interests. Asperger Syndrome (AS) is one subgroup of ASC and differs from classic autism in that in AS there is no language or general cognitive delay. Genetic, epigenetic and environmental factors are implicated in ASC and genes involved in neural connectivity and neurodevelopment are good candidates for studying the susceptibility to ASC. The aryl-hydrocarbon receptor nuclear translocator 2 (ARNT2) gene encodes a transcription factor involved in neurodevelopmental processes, neuronal connectivity and cellular responses to hypoxia. A mutation in this gene has been identified in individuals with ASC and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been nominally associated with AS and autistic traits in previous studies. Methods In this study, we tested 34 SNPs in ARNT2 for association with AS in 118 cases and 412 controls of Caucasian origin. P values were adjusted for multiple comparisons, and linkage disequilibrium (LD) among the SNPs analysed was calculated in our sample. Finally, SNP annotation allowed functional and structural analyses of the genetic variants in ARNT2. We tested the replicability of our result using the genome-wide association studies (GWAS) database of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC). Results We report statistically significant association of rs17225178 with AS. This SNP modifies transcription factor binding sites and regions that regulate the chromatin state in neural cell lines. It is also included in a LD block in our sample, alongside other genetic variants that alter chromatin regulatory regions in neural cells. Conclusions These findings demonstrate that rs17225178 in the ARNT2 gene is associated with AS and support previous studies that pointed out an involvement of this gene in the predisposition to ASC.

Benefits from safer animal food products: preliminary results from a contingent valuation study of Italian households

The social cost of food scares has been the object of substantial applied research worldwide. In Italy, meat and dairy products are often the vectors of food-borne pathogens, and this is well known by the public. Most cases of food contamination and poisoning find their causes in the way food is handled after, rather than before purchase. However, a large fraction is still caused by mishandling at the industrial stage. With this in mind, we set out to estimate Italian households’ willingness to pay (WTP) for a reduction in the risk of meat and dairy food contamination using contingent valuation. The survey design incorporated features specifically conceived to overcome difficulties faced in previous survey research, especially with respect to individualized food expenditures and risk communication. In order to achieve this objective a CAPI (computer-assisted personal interview) survey was devised to tackle two major issues which emerged in previous contingent valuation studies. The first issue is connected to the way of communicating risk to consumers in order to allow them to make optimal choices and the second one to the results deriving from these studies. In fact, estimates from contingent valuation regarding food safety are given just for single products and so marketers may find it hard to extrapolate them to the aggregate. Our results show that in Italy there are segments of consumers who would benefit from higher standards of food safety for farm animal products.

Memo test: standardisation of computerised assessment of auditory verbal short-term memory

Short-term memory (STM) impairments are prevalent in adults with acquired brain injuries. While there are several published tests to assess these impairments, the majority require speech production, e.g. digit span (Wechsler, 1987). This feature may make them unsuitable for people with aphasia and motor speech disorders because of word finding difficulties and speech demands respectively. If patients perceive the speech demands of the test to be high, the may not engage with testing. Furthermore, existing STM tests are mainly ‘pen-and-paper’ tests, which can jeopardise accuracy. To address these shortcomings, we designed and standardised a novel computerised test that does not require speech output and because of the computerised delivery it would enable clinicians identify STM impairments with greater precision than current tests. The matching listening span tasks, similar to the non-normed PALPA 13 (Kay, Lesser & Coltheart, 1992) is used to test short-term memory for serial order of spoken items. Sequences of digits are presented in pairs. The person hears the first sequence, followed by the second sequence and s/he decides whether the two sequences are the same or different. In the computerised test, the sequences are presented in live voice recordings on a portable computer through a software application (Molero Martin, Laird, Hwang & Salis 2013). We collected normative data from healthy older adults (N=22-24) using digits, real words (one- and two-syllables) and non-words (one- and two- syllables). Their performance was scored following two systems. The Highest Span system was the highest span length (e.g. 2-8) at which a participant correctly responded to over 7 out of 10 trials at the highest sequence length. Test re-test reliability was also tested in a subgroup of participants. The test will be available as free of charge for clinicians and researchers to use.