Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus

1. Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity. 2. We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo (Macropus rufus), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates. 3. Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate. 4. Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in long-lived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates. 5. Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c. 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c. 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate.

Reduced efficacy of macrocyclic lactone treatments in controlling gastrointestinal nematode infections of weaner dairy calves in subtropical eastern Australia.

Faecal Egg Count Reduction Tests (FECRTs) for macrocyclic lactone (ML) and levamisole (LEV) drenches were conducted on two dairy farms in the subtropical, summer rainfall region of eastern Australia to determine if anthelmintic failure contributed to severe gastrointestinal nematode infections observed in weaner calves. Subtropical Cooperia spp. were the dominant nematodes on both farms although significant numbers of Haemonchus placei were also present on Farm 2. On Farm 1, moxidectin pour-on (MXD) drenched at 0.5 mg kg-1 liveweight (LW) reduced the overall Cooperia burden by 82% (95% confidence limits, 37-95%) at day 7 post-drench. As worm burdens increased rapidly in younger animals in the control group (n = 4), levamisole was used as a salvage drench and these calves withdrawn from the trial on animal welfare grounds after sample collection at day 7. Levamisole (LEV) dosed at 6.8 mg kg-1 LW reduced the worm burden in these calves by 100%, 7 days after drenching. On Farm 2, MXD given at 0.5 mg kg-1 LW reduced the faecal worm egg count of cooperioids at day 8 by 96% (71-99%), ivermectin oral (IVM) at 0.2 mg kg-1 LW by 1.6% (-224 to 70%) and LEV oral at 7.1 mg kg-1 LW by 100%. For H. placei the reductions were 98% (85-99.7%) for MXD, 0.7% (-226 to 70%) for IVM and 100% for LEV. This is the first report in Australia of the failure of macrocyclic lactone treatments to control subtropical Cooperia spp. and suspected failure to control H. placei in cattle.

Impacts of grazing management options on pasture and animal productivity in a Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pasture in central Queensland. 4. Animal production.

Steer liveweight gains were measured in an extensive grazing study conducted in a Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pasture in central Queensland between 1988 and 2001. Treatments included a range of stocking rates in native pastures, legume-oversown native pasture and animal diet supplement/spring-burning pastures. Seasonal rainfall throughout this study was below the long-term mean. Mean annual pasture utilisation ranged from 13 to 61%. Annual liveweight gains per head in native pasture were highly variable among years and ranged from a low of 43 kg/steer at 2 ha/steer to a high of 182 kg/steer at 8 ha/steer. Annual liveweight gains were consistently highest at light stocking and decreased with increasing stocking rate. Annual liveweight gain per hectare increased linearly with stocking rate. These stocking rate trends were also evident in legume-oversown pastures although both the intercept and slope of the regressions for legume-oversown pastures were higher than that for native pasture. The highest annual liveweight gain for legume-oversown pasture was 221 kg/steer at 4 ha/steer. After 13 years, annual liveweight gain per unit area occurred at the heaviest stocking rate despite deleterious changes in the pasture. Across all years, the annual liveweight advantage for legume-oversown pastures was 37 kg/steer. Compared with native pasture, changes in annual liveweight gain with burning were variable. It was concluded that cattle productivity is sustainable when stocking rates are maintained at 4 ha/steer or lighter (equivalent to a utilisation rate around 30%). Although steer liveweight gain occurred at all stocking rates and economic returns were highest at heaviest stocking rates, stocking rates heavier than 4 ha/steer are unsustainable because of their long-term impact on pasture productivity.

Development of profitable milk production systems for northern Australia: a field assessment of the productivity of five potential farming systems using farmlets.

Farmlets, each of 20 cows, were established to field test five milk production systems and provide a learning platform for farmers and researchers in a subtropical environment. The systems were developed through desktop modelling and industry consultation in response to the need for substantial increases in farm milk production following deregulation of the industry. Four of the systems were based on grazing and the continued use of existing farmland resource bases, whereas the fifth comprised a feedlot and associated forage base developed as a greenfield site. The field evaluation was conducted over 4 years under more adverse environmental conditions than anticipated with below average rainfall and restrictions on irrigation. For the grazed systems, mean annual milk yield per cow ranged from 6330 kg/year (1.9 cows/ha) for a herd based on rain-grown tropical pastures to 7617 kg/year (3.0 cows/ha) where animals were based on temperate and tropical irrigated forages. For the feedlot herd, production of 9460 kg/cow.year (4.3 cows/ha of forage base) was achieved. For all herds, the level of production achieved required annual inputs of concentrates of similar to 3 t DM/animal and purchased conserved fodder from 0.3 to 1.5 t DM/animal. This level of supplementary feeding made a major contribution to total farm nutrient inputs, contributing 50% or more of the nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium entering the farming system, and presents challenges to the management of manure and urine that results from the higher stocking rates enabled. Mean annual milk production for the five systems ranged from 88 to 105% of that predicted by the desktop modelling. This level of agreement for the grazed systems was achieved with minimal overall change in predicted feed inputs; however, the feedlot system required a substantial increase in inputs over those predicted. Reproductive performance for all systems was poorer than anticipated, particularly over the summer mating period. We conclude that the desktop model, developed as a rapid response to assist farmers modify their current farming systems, provided a reasonable prediction of inputs required and milk production. Further model development would need to consider more closely climate variability, the limitations summer temperatures place on reproductive success and the feed requirements of feedlot herds.

Demography of three perennial grasses in a central Queensland eucalypt woodland.

The population dynamics of the palatable, perennial grasses Bothriochloa ewartiana (Domin) C.E.Hubb. (desert Mitchell grass), Chrysopogon fallax S.T.Blake (golden beard grass) and Heteropogon contortus (L.) P.Beauv. ex Roem. & Schult. (black speargrass), were studied in an extensive grazing study conducted in a eucalypt woodland within the Aristida-Bothriochloa pasture community in central Queensland between 1994 and 2000. Treatments were three grazing pressures based on light, medium and heavy utilisation of forage available at the end of summer and two timber treatments (trees intact and trees killed). Seasonal rainfall throughout this study was generally favourable for plant growth with no severe drought periods. Grazing pressure had a greater overall impact on plant dynamics than timber treatment, which had minimal impact. Grazing pressure had a large impact on H. contortus dynamics, an intermediate impact on B. ewartiana and no impact on C. fallax. Fluctuations in plant density of both B. ewartiana and C. fallax were small because both species were long lived with low levels of seedling recruitment and plant death, whereas fluctuations in H. contortus density were relatively high because of its relatively short life span and higher levels of both recruitment and death. Heavy grazing pressure increased the recruitment of B. ewartiana and H. contortus in some years but had no impact on that of C. fallax. Heavy grazing pressure reduced the survival of the original plants of both B. ewartiana and H.contortus but not of C. fallax. For H. contortus, the size of the original plants was larger where trees were killed than where trees were left intact and plants of the 1995 seedling cohort were larger in 1998 at heavy compared with those at light and medium grazing pressure. Grazing had a minor negative impact on the soil seed bank of H. contortus. Populations of all three species remained stable throughout this study, although the favourable seasonal rainfall experienced and the short duration of this study relative to the life span of these species may have masked longer term, deleterious impacts of heavy grazing pressure.

Sustainable and profitable grazing management in a highly variable environment-evidence and insights from a long term grazing trial in northern Australia.

Rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable management in semi-arid rangelands. We present empirical evidence from a large, long-term grazing trial in northern Australia on the relative performance of constant heavy stocking, moderate stocking at long-term carrying capacity and variable stocking in coping with climate variability over a range of rainfall years. Moderate stocking gave good economic returns, maintained pasture condition and minimised soil loss and runoff. Heavy stocking was neither sustainable nor profitable in the long term. Variable stocking generally performed well but suffered economic loss and some decline in pasture condition in the transition from good to poor years. Importantly, our results show that sustainable and profitable management are compatible in semi-arid rangelands.

Using harvest statistics to monitor temporal variation in kangaroo density and harvest rate

Management of the commercial harvest of kangaroos relies on quotas set annually as a proportion of regular estimates of population size. Surveys to generate these estimates are expensive and, in the larger states, logistically difficult; a cheaper alternative is desirable. Rainfall is a disappointingly poor predictor of kangaroo rate of increase in many areas, but harvest statistics (sex ratio, carcass weight, skin size and animals shot per unit time) potentially offer cost-effective indirect monitoring of population abundance (and therefore trend) and status (i.e. under-or overharvest). Furthermore, because harvest data are collected continuously and throughout the harvested areas, they offer the promise of more intensive and more representative coverage of harvest areas than aerial surveys do. To be useful, harvest statistics would need to have a close and known relationship with either population size or harvest rate. We assessed this using longterm (11-22 years) data for three kangaroo species (Macropus rufus, M. giganteus and M. fuliginosus) and common wallaroos (M. robustus) across South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland. Regional variation in kangaroo body size, population composition, shooter efficiency and selectivity required separate analyses in different regions. Two approaches were taken. First, monthly harvest statistics were modelled as a function of a number of explanatory variables, including kangaroo density, harvest rate and rainfall. Second, density and harvest rate were modelled as a function of harvest statistics. Both approaches incorporated a correlated error structure. Many but not all regions had relationships with sufficient precision to be useful for indirect monitoring. However, there was no single relationship that could be applied across an entire state or across species. Combined with rainfall-driven population models and applied at a regional level, these relationships could be used to reduce the frequency of aerial surveys without compromising decisions about harvest management.

Reassessing spatial and temporal dynamics of kangaroo populations

Long-running datasets from aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus giganteus, Macropus [uliginosus, Macropus robustus and Macropus rufus) across Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia have been analysed, seeking better predictors of rates of increase which would allow aerial surveys to be undertaken less frequently than annually. Early models of changes in kangaroo numbers in response to rainfall had shown great promise, but much variability. We used normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) instead, reasoning that changes in pasture condition would provide a better predictor than rainfall. However, except at a fine scale, NDVI proved no better; although two linked periods of rainfall proved useful predictors of rates of increase, this was only in some areas for some species. The good correlations reported in earlier studies were a consequence of data dominated by large droughtinduced adult mortality, whereas over a longer time frame and where changes between years are less dramatic, juvenile survival has the strongest influence on dynamics. Further, harvesting, density dependence and competition with domestic stock are additional and important influences and it is now clear that kangaroo movement has a greater influence on population dynamics than had been assumed. Accordingly, previous conclusions about kangaroo populations as simple systems driven by rainfall need to be reassessed. Examination of this large dataset has permitted descriptions of shifts in distribution of three species across eastern Australia, changes in dispersion in response to rainfall, and an evaluation of using harvest statistics as an index of density and harvest rate. These results have been combined into a risk assessment and decision theory framework to identify optimal monitoring strategies.

Application of a model to assess aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

When exposed to hot (22-35 degrees C) and dry climatic conditions in the field during the final 4-6 weeks of pod filling, peanuts (Arachis hypogaea L.) can accumulate highly carcinogenic and immuno-suppressing aflatoxins. Forecasting of the risk posed by these conditions can assist in minimizing pre-harvest contamination. A model was therefore developed as part of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) peanut module, which calculated an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) using four temperature response functions when fractional available soil water was <0.20 and the crop was in the last 0.40 of the pod-filling phase. ARI explained 0.95 (P <= 0.05) of the variation in aflatoxin contamination, which varied from 0 to c. 800 mu g/kg in 17 large-scale sowings in tropical and four sowings in sub-tropical environments carried out in Australia between 13 November and 16 December 2007. ARI also explained 0.96 (P <= 0.01) of the variation in the proportion of aflatoxin-contaminated loads (>15 mu g/kg) of peanuts in the Kingaroy region of Australia during the period between the 1998/99 and 2007/08 seasons. Simulation of ARI using historical climatic data from 1890 to 2007 indicated a three-fold increase in its value since 1980 compared to the entire previous period. The increase was associated with increases in ambient temperature and decreases in rainfall. To facilitate routine monitoring of aflatoxin risk by growers in near real time, a web interface of the model was also developed. The ARI predicted using this interface for eight growers correlated significantly with the level of contamination in crops (r=095, P <= 0.01). These results suggest that ARI simulated by the model is a reliable indicator of aflatoxin contamination that can be used in aflatoxin research as well as a decision-support tool to monitor pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

Impacts of grazing management options on pasture and animal productivity in a Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pasture in central Queensland. 3. Diet composition in autumn

The diet selected in autumn by steers fistulated at the oesophageous was studied in a subset of treatments in an extensive grazing study conducted in a Heteropogon contortus pasture in central Queensland between 1988 and 2001. These treatments were a factorial array of three stocking rates (4, 3 and 2 ha/steer) and three pasture types (native pasture, legume-oversown native pasture and animal diet supplement/spring-burning native pasture). Seasonal rainfall throughout this study was below the long-term mean and mean annual pasture utilisation ranged from 30 to 61%. Steers consistently selected H. contortus with levels decreasing from 47 to 18% of the diet as stocking rate increased from 4 ha/steer to 2 ha/steer. Stylosanthes scabra cv. Seca was always selected in legume-oversown pastures with diet composition varying from 35 to 66% despite its plant density increasing from 7 to 65 plants/m(2) and pasture composition from 20 to 50%. Steers also selected a diet containing Chrysopogon fallax, forbs and sedges in higher proportions than they were present in the pasture. Greater availability of the intermediate grasses Chloris divaricata and Eragrostis spp. was associated with increased stocking rates. Bothriochloa bladhii was seldom selected in the diet, especially when other palatable species were present in the pasture, despite B. bladhii often being the major contributor to total pasture yield. It was concluded that a stocking rate of 4 ha/steer will maintain the availability of H. contortus in the pasture.

Impacts of grazing management options on pasture and animal productivity in a Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pasture in central Queensland. 2. Population dynamics of Heteropogon contortus and Stylosanthes scabra cv. Seca.

The dynamics of Heteropogon contortus and Stylosanthes scabra cv. Seca populations were studied in a subset of treatments in an extensive grazing study conducted in central Queensland between 1988 and 2001. These treatments were 4 stocking rates in native pasture and 2 of these stocking rates in legume oversown and supplement/spring burning treatments. For the 1999-2000 summer, population data for H. contortus in 5 of these native pasture and supplement/burning treatments were compared with those for an additional burnt treatment. Seasonal rainfall throughout this study was below the long-term mean and mean annual pasture utilisation ranged from 24 to 61%. Increasing stocking rate from 5 to 2 ha/steer in native pasture reduced H. contortus plant density. Increasing stocking rate reduced seedling recruitment as a result of its effect on soil seedbanks. Seedling recruitment was the major determinant of change in plant density, although some individual H. contortus plants did survive throughout the study. Burning in spring 1999, particularly at light stocking rate, promoted seedling recruitment above that in both unburnt native and legume oversown pasture and resulted in increased H. contortus plant density. In the legume oversown treatments, S. scabra cv. Seca density increased rapidly from 15 plants/m2 in 1988 to 140 plants/m2 in 2001 following a lag phase between 1988 and 1993. This increased S. scabra density was associated with an eventual decline in H. contortus plant density through reduced seedling recruitment. It was concluded that H. contortus population density is sustainable at stocking rates of 4 and 5 ha/steer (30% pasture utilisation) and that spring burning at light stocking rate can promote H. contortus populations. Increasing densities of S. scabra need to be managed to prevent its dominance.

Rootzone amendments to improve soil moisture relations under newly-laid sod

Three experiments were conducted on the use of water retaining amendments under newly-laid turf mats. The work focused on the first 12 weeks of establishment. In soils that already possessed a good water-holding capacity, water retaining amendments did not provide any benefit. On a sand-based profile, a rooting depth of 200 mm was achieved with soil amendment products within three weeks of laying turf. Most products differed in their performance relative to each other at each three weekly measurement interval. Polyacrylamide gels gave superior results when the crystals were incorporated into the soil profile. They were not suitable for broadcasting at the soil/sod interface. Finer grades of crystals were less likely to be subject to excessive expansion than medium grade crystals after heavy rainfall. Turf establishment was more responsive to products at higher application rates, however these higher rates may result in surface stability problems.

Premature fruit softening, a major physiological problem of persimmon in subtropical Australia.

Premature or abnormal softening of persimmon fruit within 3-7 days after harvest is a major physiological problem of non-astringent persimmon cultivars grown in subtropical regions of Australia. Up to 30% of consignments may soften rapidly frequently overnight, often resulting in the flesh becoming very soft, completely translucent, and impossible to handle. Incidence of premature soft fruit can vary with season and production location. To study the incidence of this problem, we conducted surveys of fruit harvested from five environmentally-diverse regions of Australia over a two-year period. We found wide variation in the rate of both premature softening and normal softening with differences of up 37 days between orchards in percentage of fruit reaching 50% soft. We found that the rate of fruit softening was exacerbated by lower calcium concentrations at fruit set, shorter fruit development periods and heavier rainfall during the fruit development period. The implications of our findings, in terms of orchard management, export and domestic marketing strategies are discussed.

Quantifying surfactant interaction effects on soil moisture and turf quality

Soil water repellency occurs widely in horticultural and agricultural soils when very dry. The gradual accumulation and breakdown of surface organic matter over time produces wax-like organic acids, which coat soil particles preventing uniform entry of water into the soil. Water repellency is usually managed by regular surfactant applications. Surfactants, literally, are surface active agents (SURFace ACTive AgeNTS). Their mode of action is to reduce the surface tension of water, allowing it to penetrate and wet the soil more easily and completely. This practice improves water use efficiency (by requiring less water to wet the soil and by capturing rainfall and irrigation more effectively and rapidly). It also reduces nutrient losses through run-off erosion or leaching. These nutrients have the potential to pollute the surrounding environment and water courses. This project investigated potential improvements to standard practices (product combination and scheduling) for surfactant use to overcome localised dry spots on water repellent soils and thus improve turf quality and water use efficiency. Weather conditions for the duration of the trial prevented the identification of improved practices in terms of combination and scheduling. However, the findings support previous research that the use of soil surfactants decreased the time for water to infiltrate dry soil samples taken from a previously severely hydrophobic site. Data will be continually collected from this trial site on a private contractual basis, with the hope that improvements to standard practices will be observed during the drier winter months when moisture availability is a limiting factor for turfgrass growth and quality.

Impacts of improved grazing land management on sediment yields, Part 1: Hillslope processes.

Summary Poor land condition resulting from unsustainable grazing practices can reduce enterprise profitability and increase water, sediment and associated nutrient runoff from properties and catchments. This paper presents the results of a 6 year field study that used a series of hillslope flume experiments to evaluate the impact of improved grazing land management (GLM) on hillslope runoff and sediment yields. The study was carried out on a commercial grazing property in a catchment draining to the Burdekin River in northern Australia. During this study average ground cover on hillslopes increased from ~35% to ~75%, although average biomass and litter levels are still relatively low for this landscape type (~60 increasing to 1100 kg of dry matter per hectare). Pasture recovery was greatest on the upper and middle parts of hillslopes. Areas that did not respond to the improved grazing management had <10% cover and were on the lower slopes associated with the location of sodic soil and the initiation of gullies. Comparison of ground cover changes and soil conditions with adjacent properties suggest that grazing management, and not just improved rainfall conditions, were responsible for the improvements in ground cover in this study. The ground cover improvements resulted in progressively lower runoff coefficients for the first event in each wet season, however, runoff coefficients were not reduced at the annual time scale. The hillslope annual sediment yields declined by ~70% on two out of three hillslopes, although where bare patches (with <10% cover) were connected to gullies and streams, annual sediment yields increased in response to higher rainfall in latter years of the study. It appears that bare patches are the primary source areas for both runoff and erosion on these hillslopes. Achieving further reductions in runoff and erosion in these landscapes may require management practices that improve ground cover and biomass in bare areas, particularly when they are located adjacent to concentrated drainage lines.