[Psychiatric assessment of alcoholic patients on a waiting list for liver transplantation : Which prognostic criteria are empirically proven?]

Liver disorders are the most frequent somatic complications of alcoholism. As 10‑20% of alcoholic patients will develop liver cirrhosis, this is the most frequent reason for premature death in alcoholic patients. Liver transplantation is now an accepted therapy for alcoholic liver cirrhosis but psychiatric assessment is usually required for patients entering a waiting list for transplantation. Prognostic criteria are controversially discussed, especially the so-called 6-month rule. Numerous studies and recent meta-analyses have indicated that duration of alcoholism, family history, age, sex, comorbid substance use and psychiatric disorders, noncompliance and social instability are outcome predictors. The 6-month criterion is not well proven but some studies are indicative. Possible therapeutic interventions for alcoholic patients on a waiting list are discussed.

Catastrophic Flooding In North-Central Pennsylvania: Geomorphic Findings From The September 2011 Event And Their Significance To

Tropical Storm Lee produced 25-36 cm of rainfall in north-central Pennsylvania on September 4th through 8th of 2011. Loyalsock Creek, Muncy Creek, and Fishing Creek experienced catastrophic flooding resulting in new channel formation, bank erosion, scour of chutes, deposition/reworking of point bars and chute bars, and reactivation of the floodplain. This study was created to investigate aspects of both geomorphology and sedimentology by studying the well-exposed gravel deposits left by the flood, before these features are removed by humans or covered by vegetation. By recording the composition of gravel bars in the study area and creating lithofacies models, it is possible to understand the 2011 flooding. Surficial clasts on gravel bars are imbricated, but the lack of imbrication and high matrix content of sediments at depth suggests that surface imbrication of the largest clasts took place during hyperconcentrated flow (40-70% sediment concentration). The imbricated clasts on the surface are the largest observed within the bars. The lithofacies recorded are atypical for mixed-load stream lithofacies and more similar to glacial outburst flood lithofacies. This paper suggests that the accepted lithofacies model for mixed-load streams with gravel bedload may not always be useful for interpreting depositional systems. A flume study, which attempted to duplicate the stratigraphy recorded in the field, was run in order to better understand hyperconcentrated flows in the study area. Results from the study in the Bucknell Geology Flume Laboratory indicate that surficial imbrication is possible in hyperconcentrated conditions. After flooding the flume to entrain large amounts of sand and gravel, deposition of surficially imbricated gravel with massive or upward coarsening sedimentology occurred. Imbrication was not observed at depth. These experimental flume deposits support our interpretation of the lithofacies discovered in the field. The sizes of surficial gravel bar clasts show clear differences between chute and point bars. On point bars, gravels fine with increasing distance from the channel. Fining also occurs at the downstream end of point bars. In chute deposits, dramatic fining occurs down the axis of the chute, and lateral grain sizes are nearly uniform. Measuring the largest grain size of sandstone clasts at 8-11 kilometer intervals on each river reveals anomalies in the downstream fining trends. Gravel inputs from bedrock outcrops, tributaries, and erosion of Pleistocene outwash terraces may explain observed variations in grain size along streams either incised into the Appalachian Plateau or located near the Wisconsinan glacial boundary. Atomic Mass Spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dating of sediment from recently scoured features on Muncy Creek and Loyalsock Creek returned respective ages of 500 BP and 2490 BP. These dates suggest that the recurrence interval of the 2011 flooding may be several hundred to several thousand years. This geomorphic interval of recurrence is much longer then the 120 year interval calculated by the USGS using historical stream gauge records.

Significance of the Deformation History within the Hinge Zone of the Pennsylvania Salient, Appalachian Mountains

Two competing models exist for the formation of the Pennsylvania salient, a widely studied area of pronounced curvature in the Appalachian mountain belt. The viability of these models can be tested by compiling and analyzing the patterns of structures within the general hinge zone of the Pennsylvania salient. One end-member model suggests a NW-directed maximum shortening direction and no rotation through time in the culmination. An alternative model requires a two-phase development of the culmination involving NNW-directed maximum shortening overprinted by WNW-directed maximum shortening. Structural analysis at 22 locations throughout the Valley and Ridge and southern Appalachian Plateau Provinces of Pennsylvania are used to constrain orientations of the maximum shortening direction and establish whether these orientations have rotated during progressive deformation in the Pennsylvania salient's hinge. Outcrops of Paleozoic sedimentary rocks contain several orders of folds, conjugate faults, steeply dipping strike-slip faults, joints, conjugate en echelon gash vein arrays, spaced cleavage, and grain-scale finite strain indicators. This suite of structures records a complex deformation history similar to the Bear Valley sequence of progressive deformation. The available structural data from the Juniata culmination do not show a consistent temporal rotation of shortening directions and generally indicate uniform,

Prognostic impact of lymph node ratio outperforms positive lymph nodes and lymph nodes harvested: a time-dependent analysis in mismatch repair-proficient and –deficient colrectal cancers

Objective: We compare the prognostic strength of the lymph node ratio (LNR), positive lymph nodes (+LNs) and collected lymph nodes (LNcoll) using a time-dependent analysis in colorectal cancer patients stratified by mismatch repair (MMR) status. Method: 580 stage III-IV patients were included. Multivariable Cox regression analysis and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (tROC) curve analysis were performed. The Area under the Curve (AUC) over time was compared for the three features. Results were validated on a second cohort of 105 stage III-IV patients. Results: The AUC for the LNR was 0.71 and outperformed + LNs and LNcoll by 10–15 % in both MMR-proficient and deficient cancers. LNR and + LNs were both significant (p<0.0001) in multivariable analysis but the effect was considerably stronger for the LNR [LNR: HR=5.18 (95 % CI: 3.5–7.6); +LNs=1.06 (95 % CI: 1.04–1.08)]. Similar results were obtained for patients with >12 LNcoll. An optimal cut off score for LNR=0.231 was validated on the second cohort (p<0.001). Conclusion: The LNR outperforms the + LNs and LNcoll even in patients with >12 LNcoll. Its clinical value is not confounded by MMR status. A cut-of score of 0.231 may best stratify patients into prognostic subgroups and could be a basis for the future prospective analysis of the LNR.

Loss of heterozygosity 1p36 and 19q13 is a prognostic factor for overall survival in patients with diffuse WHO grade 2 gliomas treated without chemotherapy

PURPOSE: This study was conducted to elucidate the impact of loss of heterozygosity (LOH) for chromosomes 1p36 and 19q13 on the overall survival of patients with diffusely infiltrating WHO grade 2 gliomas treated without chemotherapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We assessed the LOH status of tumors from patients harboring WHO grade 2 gliomas diagnosed between 1991 and 2000. Patients were either followed after initial biopsy or treated by surgery and/or radiation therapy (RT). Overall survival, time to malignant transformation, and progression-free survival were last updated as of March 2005. RESULTS: Of a total of 79 patients, LOH 1p36 and LOH 19q13 could be assessed in 67 and 66 patients, respectively. The median follow-up after diagnosis was 6 years. Loss of either 1p or 19q, in particular codeletion(s) at both loci, was found to positively impact on both overall survival (log-rank P < .01), progression-free survival, and survival without malignant transformation (P < .05). Tumor volume (P < .0001), neurologic deficits at diagnosis (P < .01), involvement of more than one lobe (P < .01), and absence of an oligodendroglial component (P < .05) were also predictors of shorter overall survival. The extent of surgery was similar in patients with or without LOH 1p and/or 19q; RT was more frequently resorted to for patients without than for patients with LOH 1p/19q (30% v 60%). CONCLUSION: The presence of LOH on either 1p36 or 19q13, and in particular codeletion of both loci is a strong, nontreatment-related, prognostic factor for overall survival in patients with diffusely infiltrating WHO grade 2 gliomas.

Vitrectomy for juvenile uveitis: prognostic factors for the long-term functional outcome

PURPOSE: This study evaluated the long-term effect of pars plana vitrectomy (PPV) in children and adolescents with chronic uveitis on visual function, anatomical outcome, and the requirement of systemic treatment. Further, predictive preoperative factors associated with a beneficial visual outcome were assessed. METHODS: Retrospective review of 29 eyes of 23 consecutive paediatric and juvenile patients below 20 years of age with chronic uveitis who underwent a PPV for visually significant opacities in 25 eyes, vitreous haemorrhage in three eyes, and retinal detachment in one eye. The clinical diagnosis was chronic intermediate uveitis in 22 eyes and retinal vasculitis of different origin in seven eyes. RESULTS: LogMAR visual acuity improved from an average of 0.91 to 0.33 (P<0.001). Cystoid macular oedema (CME) was significantly reduced in eight of 10 eyes postoperatively (P=0.021). In the multiple regression analysis, a low preoperative logMAR visual acuity and the presence of a CME had a negative influence on the final logMAR visual acuity. Furthermore, the appearance of chronic uveitis relapses was significantly reduced from 15 eyes before to seven eyes after surgery (P=0.042). CONCLUSIONS: PPV has a beneficial effect on the course and the complications of chronic uveitis in paediatric and juvenile patients with respect to the anatomical and visual outcome. Preoperative logMAR visual acuity and clinically significant CME were the most accurate predictors for the functional outcome.

Diagnostic significance of Neospora caninum DNA detected by PCR in cattle serum

A nested PCR that successfully detected Neospora caninum DNA in serum of cattle was used for investigation of selected abortion cases and in a study of healthy pregnant cows at an abattoir. N. caninum DNA was not detected in serum from antibody positive dams that aborted due to N. caninum, but was present in serum of some antibody negative dams that aborted due to other causes. N. caninum DNA was also found in the serum of about half of the animals that aborted of undetermined cause, but was not detected in cow sera from two beef cattle herds in Western Australia with no recent history of abortion. In the abattoir study of 79 dams and their foetuses N. caninum DNA was found in serum of 3 dams and in material from 11 foetuses. The majority of the cows and all foetuses were antibody negative. Our findings suggest that there is no obvious relationship between the presence or absence of N. caninum DNA in serum and the presence of antibodies to N. caninum in dams, the presence of N. caninum DNA in foetuses or abortion due to N. caninum. This is the first report of the detection of N. caninum DNA in serum of cattle rather than the white blood cell fraction. It indicates the presence of free tachyzoites and/or parasite DNA in circulation. The results suggest that persistent infection in the absence of antibodies is a possible outcome of N. caninum infection. Infection of foetuses in the absence of antibodies supports the possibility of persistent infection due to immunotolerance to an early in utero infection. It is therefore important to test for N. caninum DNA as well as antibodies for the detection of exposed and/or infected animals. However, the presence or absence of N. caninum antibodies or DNA did not support nor exclude N. caninum as the cause of abortion. Additional criteria are required for a positive diagnosis of abortion caused by N. caninum.

The Ecological Significance of the Herbaceous Layer in Temperate Forest Ecosystems

Despite a growing awareness that the herbaceous layer serves a special role in maintaining the structure and function of forests, this stratum remainsan underappreciated aspect of forest ecosystems. In this article I review and synthesize information concerning the herb layer’s structure,composition, and dynamics to emphasize its role as an integral component of forest ecosystems. Because species diversity is highest in the herb layeramong all forest strata, forest biodiversity is largely a function of the herb-layer community. Competitive interactions within the herb layer candetermine the initial success of plants occupying higher strata, including the regeneration of dominant overstory tree species. Furthermore, the herblayer and the overstory can become linked through parallel responses to similar environmental gradients. These relationships between strata varyboth spatially and temporally. Because the herb layer responds sensitively to disturbance across broad spatial and temporal scales, its dynamics canprovide important information regarding the site characteristics of forests, including patterns of past land-use practices. Thus, the herb layer has asignificance that belies its diminutive stature.

Limitations of the Odds Ratio in Gauging the Performance of a Diagnostic or Prognostic Marker

A marker that is strongly associated with outcome (or disease) is often assumed to be effective for classifying individuals according to their current or future outcome. However, for this to be true, the associated odds ratio must be of a magnitude rarely seen in epidemiological studies. An illustration of the relationship between odds ratios and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows, for example, that a marker with an odds ratio as high as 3 is in fact a very poor classification tool. If a marker identifies 10 percent of controls as positive (false positives) and has an odds ratio of 3, then it will only correctly identify 25 percent of cases as positive (true positives). Moreover, the authors illustrate that a single measure of association such as an odds ratio does not meaningfully describe a marker’s ability to classify subjects. Appropriate statistical methods for assessing and reporting the classification power of a marker are described. The serious pitfalls of using more traditional methods based on parameters in logistic regression models are illustrated.

Prognostic factors affecting long-term outcomes in patients with resected stage IIIA pN2 non-small-cell lung cancer: 5-year follow-up of a phase II study

The aim was to investigate the efficacy of neoadjuvant docetaxel-cisplatin and identify prognostic factors for outcome in locally advanced stage IIIA (pN2 by mediastinoscopy) non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. In all, 75 patients (from 90 enrolled) underwent tumour resection after three 3-week cycles of docetaxel 85 mg m-2 (day 1) plus cisplatin 40 or 50 mg m-2 (days 1 and 2). Therapy was well tolerated (overall grade 3 toxicity occurred in 48% patients; no grade 4 nonhaematological toxicity was reported), with no observed late toxicities. Median overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) times were 35 and 15 months, respectively, in the 75 patients who underwent surgery; corresponding figures for all 90 patients enrolled were 28 and 12 months. At 3 years after initiating trial therapy, 27 out of 75 patients (36%) were alive and tumour free. At 5-year follow-up, 60 and 65% of patients had local relapse and distant metastases, respectively. The most common sites of distant metastases were the lung (24%) and brain (17%). Factors associated with OS, EFS and risk of local relapse and distant metastases were complete tumour resection and chemotherapy activity (clinical response, pathologic response, mediastinal downstaging). Neoadjuvant docetaxel-cisplatin was effective and tolerable in stage IIIA pN2 NSCLC, with chemotherapy contributing significantly to outcomes.