958 resultados para Probabilistic generalization


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Lyhyen kantaman radiolähettimien käyttö on kasvanut muutaman viime vuoden aikana huomattavasti. Osaltaan tähän on vaikuttanut uusien taajuusalueiden allokointi lupavapaiden radiolähettimien käyttöön, standardoitujen tekniikoiden yleistyminen ja laitteiden parempi saatavuus. Tässä työssä tarkastellaan lyhyen kantaman radiolähettimien soveltuvuutta sähkökäyttöjen kunnonvalvonnan ja etädiagnostiikan tiedonsiirtotarpeisiin. Työssä luodaan katsaus teollisuusympäristön vaikutuksiin langattomassa tiedonsiirrossa ja tarkastellaan sähkökäyttöjen kunnonvalvonnan ja etädiagnostiikan vaatimuksia tiedonsiirrolle ja tiedonsiirtojärjestelmälle. Työssä käydään läpi lyhyen kantaman radiolähettimiin liittyvät säädökset ja luodaan katsaus standardoituihin sekä valmistajakohtaisiin lyhyen kantaman radiotekniikoihin. Tiedonsiirtojärjestelmän suunnittelun kannalta tarkastellaan tiedonsiirtojärjestelmän topologiaa, protokollaa ja saatavilla olevia tekniikoita ja niiden implementoimista järjestelmään. Valmistajakohtaisia lyhyen kantaman radiomoduulien toimintaa ja Bluetoothin sisältävää älypuhelinta tutkitaan laboratoriomittauksin. Lopuksi kootaan yhteen langattoman tiedonsiirron ja eri tekniikoiden soveltuvuus sähkökäyttöjen kunnonvalvonnan ja etädiagnostiikan sovelluksiin.

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"This paper will discuss the major developments in the area of fingerprint" "identification that followed the publication of the National Research Council (NRC, of the US National Academies of Sciences) report in 2009 entitled: Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward. The report portrayed an image of a field of expertise used for decades without the necessary scientific research-based underpinning. The advances since the report and the needs in selected areas of fingerprinting will be detailed. It includes the measurement of the accuracy, reliability, repeatability and reproducibility of the conclusions offered by fingerprint experts. The paper will also pay attention to the development of statistical models allow- ing assessment of fingerprint comparisons. As a corollary of these developments, the next challenge is to reconcile a traditional practice domi- nated by deterministic conclusions with the probabilistic logic of any statistical model. There is a call for greater candour and fingerprint experts will need to communicate differently on the strengths and limitations of their findings. Their testimony will have to go beyond the blunt assertion" "of the uniqueness of fingerprints or the opinion delivered ispe dixit."

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Huntington's disease is an incurable neurodegenerative disease caused by inheritance of an expanded cytosine-adenine-guanine (CAG) trinucleotide repeat within the Huntingtin gene. Extensive volume loss and altered diffusion metrics in the basal ganglia, cortex and white matter are seen when patients with Huntington's disease (HD) undergo structural imaging, suggesting that changes in basal ganglia-cortical structural connectivity occur. The aims of this study were to characterise altered patterns of basal ganglia-cortical structural connectivity with high anatomical precision in premanifest and early manifest HD, and to identify associations between structural connectivity and genetic or clinical markers of HD. 3-Tesla diffusion tensor magnetic resonance images were acquired from 14 early manifest HD subjects, 17 premanifest HD subjects and 18 controls. Voxel-based analyses of probabilistic tractography were used to quantify basal ganglia-cortical structural connections. Canonical variate analysis was used to demonstrate disease-associated patterns of altered connectivity and to test for associations between connectivity and genetic and clinical markers of HD; this is the first study in which such analyses have been used. Widespread changes were seen in basal ganglia-cortical structural connectivity in early manifest HD subjects; this has relevance for development of therapies targeting the striatum. Premanifest HD subjects had a pattern of connectivity more similar to that of controls, suggesting progressive change in connections over time. Associations between structural connectivity patterns and motor and cognitive markers of disease severity were present in early manifest subjects. Our data suggest the clinical phenotype in manifest HD may be at least partly a result of altered connectivity. Hum Brain Mapp 36:1728-1740, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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[eng] We propose two generalizations of the Banzhaf value for partition function form games. In both cases, our approach is based on probability distributions over the set of possible coalition structures that may arise for any given set of agents. First, we introduce a family of values, one for each collection of the latter probability distributions, defined as the Banzhaf value of an expected coalitional game. Then, we provide two characterization results for this new family of values within the framework of all partition function games. Both results rely on a property of neutrality with respect to amalgamation of players. Second, as this collusion transformation fails to be meaningful for simple games in partition function form, we propose another generalization of the Banzhaf value which also builds on probability distributions of the above type. This latter family is characterized by means of a neutrality property which uses an amalgamation transformation of players for which simple games are closed.

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[eng] We propose two generalizations of the Banzhaf value for partition function form games. In both cases, our approach is based on probability distributions over the set of possible coalition structures that may arise for any given set of agents. First, we introduce a family of values, one for each collection of the latter probability distributions, defined as the Banzhaf value of an expected coalitional game. Then, we provide two characterization results for this new family of values within the framework of all partition function games. Both results rely on a property of neutrality with respect to amalgamation of players. Second, as this collusion transformation fails to be meaningful for simple games in partition function form, we propose another generalization of the Banzhaf value which also builds on probability distributions of the above type. This latter family is characterized by means of a neutrality property which uses an amalgamation transformation of players for which simple games are closed.

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The performance of a hydrologic model depends on the rainfall input data, both spatially and temporally. As the spatial distribution of rainfall exerts a great influence on both runoff volumes and peak flows, the use of a distributed hydrologic model can improve the results in the case of convective rainfall in a basin where the storm area is smaller than the basin area. The aim of this study was to perform a sensitivity analysis of the rainfall time resolution on the results of a distributed hydrologic model in a flash-flood prone basin. Within such a catchment, floods are produced by heavy rainfall events with a large convective component. A second objective of the current paper is the proposal of a methodology that improves the radar rainfall estimation at a higher spatial and temporal resolution. Composite radar data from a network of three C-band radars with 6-min temporal and 2 × 2 km2 spatial resolution were used to feed the RIBS distributed hydrological model. A modification of the Window Probability Matching Method (gauge-adjustment method) was applied to four cases of heavy rainfall to improve the observed rainfall sub-estimation by computing new Z/R relationships for both convective and stratiform reflectivities. An advection correction technique based on the cross-correlation between two consecutive images was introduced to obtain several time resolutions from 1 min to 30 min. The RIBS hydrologic model was calibrated using a probabilistic approach based on a multiobjective methodology for each time resolution. A sensitivity analysis of rainfall time resolution was conducted to find the resolution that best represents the hydrological basin behaviour.

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ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

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ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

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In this paper we propose the use of the independent component analysis (ICA) [1] technique for improving the classification rate of decision trees and multilayer perceptrons [2], [3]. The use of an ICA for the preprocessing stage, makes the structure of both classifiers simpler, and therefore improves the generalization properties. The hypothesis behind the proposed preprocessing is that an ICA analysis will transform the feature space into a space where the components are independent, and aligned to the axes and therefore will be more adapted to the way that a decision tree is constructed. Also the inference of the weights of a multilayer perceptron will be much easier because the gradient search in the weight space will follow independent trajectories. The result is that classifiers are less complex and on some databases the error rate is lower. This idea is also applicable to regression

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Generalization from single-case designs can be achieved by means of replicating individual studies across different experimental units and settings. When replications are available, their findings can be summarized using effect size measurements and integrated through meta-analyses. Several procedures are available for quantifying the magnitude of treatment"s effect in N = 1 designs and some of them are studied in the current paper. Monte Carlo simulations were employed to generate different data patterns (trend, level change, slope change). The experimental conditions simulated were defined by the degrees of serial dependence and phases" length. Out of all the effect size indices studied, the Percent of nonoverlapping data and standardized mean difference proved to be less affected by autocorrelation and perform better for shorter data series. The regression-based procedures proposed specifically for single-case designs did not differentiate between data patterns as well as simpler indices.

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From the point of view of uniform bounds for the birationality of pluricanonical maps, irregular varieties of general type and maximal Albanese dimension behave similarly to curves. In fact Chen-Hacon showed that, at least when their holomorphic Euler characteristic is positive, the tricanonical map of such varieties is always birational. In this paper we study the bicanonical map. We consider the natural subclass of varieties of maximal Albanese dimension formed by primitive varieties of Albanese general type. We prove that the only such varieties with non-birational bicanonical map are the natural higher-dimensional generalization to this context of curves of genus $2$: varieties birationally equivalent to the theta-divisor of an indecomposable principally polarized abelian variety. The proof is based on the (generalized) Fourier-Mukai transform.

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Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on etsiä tarkastustahojen välistä yhteistyötä edistäviä tekijöitä sekä tutkia, mitä hyötyä yhteistyöstä on. Empiirisessä osassa tutkitaan Sisäiset tarkastajat ry:n jäsenten näkemyksiä yhteistyön hyödyllisyydestä ja tutkitaan löytyykö yhteistyötä edistäviä tekijöitä sekä vertaillaan tuloksia teoriaan. Mielipiteitä tarkastellaan erikseen julkisen sektorin ja yrityssektorin osalta ja tutkitaan onko mielipide-erot tilastollisesti merkitseviä. Keskinäinen luottamus ja arvostus, yhteistyöhalukkuus, johdon vahva tuki, riippumattomuus, säännöllinen tapaaminen, raporttien vaihtaminen ja hyvät vuorovaikutussuhteet edistävät yhteistyötä. Suunnitteluun, koordinointiin ja työnjakoon tulee kiinnittää huomiota. Sisäisen tarkastuksen organisointitavalla, koolla ja heidän ammattitaidollaan voi olla vaikutusta yhteistyön muodostumiseen. Yhteistyöstä hyötyvät molemmat tarkastustahot ja organisaatio. Yhteistyön avulla voidaan kasvattaa ammattitaitoa, saada kustannussäästöjä ja kattavampi tarkastuskokonaisuus sekä välttyä päällekkäiseltä työltä. Kyselytutkimuksen tulokset osoittivat, että yhteistyötä edistäviä tekijöitä oli melko paljon, varsinkin yrityssektorin vastaajien osalta. Edellä mainittuja hyötyjä oli saatu, mutta julkisen sektorin vastaajat olivat asiasta vähemmän samaa mieltä. Mielipide-erojen yleistettävyyteen tulee kuitenkin suhtautua kriittisesti, koska aineiston koko jäi melko pieneksi.

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We study a generalization of the classical Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequalities. We relate this problem to the sampling sequences in the Paley-Wiener space and by using this analogy we give sharp necessary and sufficient computable conditions for a family of points to satisfy the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequalities.

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Industry's growing need for higher productivity is placing new demands on mechanisms connected with electrical motors, because these can easily lead to vibration problems due to fast dynamics. Furthermore, the nonlinear effects caused by a motor frequently reduce servo stability, which diminishes the controller's ability to predict and maintain speed. Hence, the flexibility of a mechanism and its control has become an important area of research. The basic approach in control system engineering is to assume that the mechanism connected to a motor is rigid, so that vibrations in the tool mechanism, reel, gripper or any apparatus connected to the motor are not taken into account. This might reduce the ability of the machine system to carry out its assignment and shorten the lifetime of the equipment. Nonetheless, it is usually more important to know how the mechanism, or in other words the load on the motor, behaves. A nonlinear load control method for a permanent magnet linear synchronous motor is developed and implemented in the thesis. The purpose of the controller is to track a flexible load to the desired velocity reference as fast as possible and without awkward oscillations. The control method is based on an adaptive backstepping algorithm with its stability ensured by the Lyapunov stability theorem. As a reference controller for the backstepping method, a hybrid neural controller is introduced in which the linear motor itself is controlled by a conventional PI velocity controller and the vibration of the associated flexible mechanism is suppressed from an outer control loop using a compensation signal from a multilayer perceptron network. To avoid the local minimum problem entailed in neural networks, the initial weights are searched for offline by means of a differential evolution algorithm. The states of a mechanical system for controllers are estimated using the Kalman filter. The theoretical results obtained from the control design are validated with the lumped mass model for a mechanism. Generalization of the mechanism allows the methods derived here to be widely implemented in machine automation. The control algorithms are first designed in a specially introduced nonlinear simulation model and then implemented in the physical linear motor using a DSP (Digital Signal Processor) application. The measurements prove that both controllers are capable of suppressing vibration, but that the backstepping method is superior to others due to its accuracy of response and stability properties.

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We analyze the results for infinite nuclear and neutron matter using the standard relativistic mean field model and its recent effective field theory motivated generalization. For the first time, we show quantitatively that the inclusion in the effective theory of vector meson self-interactions and scalar-vector cross-interactions explains naturally the recent experimental observations of the softness of the nuclear equation of state, without losing the advantages of the standard relativistic model for finite nuclei.