913 resultados para Probabilistic fire risk analysis
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Objectives: estimate the Prevalence and track the risk factors associated with, Maternity blues (MB). Methods: a transversal study was performed with 113 women, on the tenth day of puerperium. The following instruments were used: Pitt Scale (1968), Stein (1980), Inventory for stressful life events by Holmes & Rahe (1967), and a questionnaire with sociodemographic and obstetric data. Results: the prevalence of MB was 32.7% according to the Stein scale. In the univariated analysis, civil status and tobacco use were associated with MB, Legally married women and nonsmokers showed a risk approximately 4 times lower of experiencing the problem. Conclusions: MB was very prevalent in this sample, Obstetricians must be aware of this condition which may be associated with postpartum depression.
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Background: Several studies have already reported the utilization of fibrin glue in microvascular anastomoses to minimize the number of sutures and to decrease the operative time. Despite the good results obtained in most of these experiments, its clinical application has not launched. The aim of this study was to clarify the controversies around the safeness of fibrin glue application in microvascular anastomoses, and also to demonstrate the potential benefits of fibrin glue application in a realistic free flap model. Methods: Twenty-seven rabbits were used in this study The experimental model consisted of a free groin flap transfer to the anterior cervical region. The flap`s circulation was restored by means of an end-to-side anastomosis between the femoral and carotid arteries, and an end-to-end anastomosis between the femoral and external jugular veins. The animals were divided into two groups (n = 10) according to the anastomosis technique: Group I (conventional suture) and group 11 (fibrin glue). Results: The number of sutures required to complete the arterial and venous anastomoses was reduced in 39 and 37% in group 11, respectively. Despite this reduction, the anastomoses maintained adequate patency rates and mechanical strength. Both arterial and venous anastomoses benefited from fibrin glue application, which made them easier and faster to perform. The flaps` ischemic time and the total operative time were also significantly shortened. Conclusions: In this study, the application of fibrin glue in microvascular anastomoses was safe and reliable. The risk-benefit ratio of fibrin glue application in microvascular anastomoses is favorable for its use. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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Alcohol and tobacco consumption are well-recognized risk factors for head and neck cancer (HNC). Evidence suggests that genetic predisposition may also play a role. Only a few epidemiologic studies, however, have considered the relation between HNC risk and family history of HNC and other cancers. We pooled individual-level data across 12 case-control studies including 8,967 HNC cases and 13,627 controls. We obtained pooled odds ratios (OR) using fixed and random effect models and adjusting for potential confounding factors. All statistical tests were two-sided. A family history of HNC in first-degree relatives increased the risk of HNC (OR = 1.7, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.2-2.3). The risk was higher when the affected relative was a sibling (OR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.6-3.1) rather than a parent (OR = 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-1.8) and for more distal HNC anatomic sites (hypopharynx and larynx). The risk was also higher, or limited to, in subjects exposed to tobacco. The OR rose to 7.2 (95% CI 5.5-9.5) among subjects with family history, who were alcohol and tobacco users. A weak but significant association (OR = 1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.2) emerged for family history of other tobacco-related neoplasms, particularly with laryngeal cancer (OR = 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5). No association was observed for family history of nontobacco-related neoplasms and the risk of HNC (OR = 1.0, 95% CI 0.9-1.1). Familial factors play a role in the etiology of HNC. In both subjects with and without family history of HNC, avoidance of tobacco and alcohol exposure may be the best way to avoid HNC. (C) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc,
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In immediate fire deaths, pulmonary injury may be the main source of mortality, being important to document the histologic findings for the purpose of excluding other modes of death, such as from asphyxia with no gross findings. In this context, a group of morphologic determinants have been targeted with useful makers of pulmonary injury. To facilitate the determination of whether an individual was deceased before the start of a fire and validate the importance of parenchymal alterations in pulmonary injury in fire deaths, we studied lungs in victims of fire (N = 28) and suffocation (N = 40), creating a mathematical model using cluster analysis. For this purpose, a semiquantitative analysis of the distal parenchyma was performed to evaluate the amount of bronchiolar dilatation, overinsufflation (ductal and alveolar), collapse (ductal and alveolar), passive congestion, alveolar edema, and hemorrhage (interstitial and alveolar). These 7 histologic determinants were useful to discriminate fire (bronchiolar dilatation, ductal overinsuflation, alveolar overinsuflation, alveolar hemorrhage) from suffocation lung injuries (alveolar collapse, congestion, and edema). We conclude that these determinants should be included in the routine of forensic pathology.
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Objective: Bronchial typical carcinoid tumors are tow-grade malignancies. However, metastases are diagnosed in some patients. Predicting the individual risk of these metastases to determine patients eligible for a radical lymphadenectomy and patients to be followed-up because of distant metastasis risk is relevant. Our objective was to screen for predictive criteria of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor aggressiveness based on a logistic regression model using clinical, pathological and biomolecular data. Methods: A multicenter retrospective cohort study, including 330 consecutive patients operated on for bronchial typical carcinoid tumors and followed-up during a period more than 10 years in two university hospitals was performed. Selected data to predict the individual risk for both nodal and distant metastasis were: age, gender, TNM staging, tumor diameter and location (central/peripheral), tumor immunostaining index of p53 and Ki67, Bcl2 and the extracellular density of neoformed microvessels and of collagen/elastic extracellular fibers. Results: Nodal and distant metastasis incidence was 11% and 5%, respectively. Univariate analysis identified all the studied biomarkers as related to nodal metastasis. Multivariate analysis identified a predictive variable for nodal metastasis: neo angiogenesis, quantified by the neoformed pathological microvessels density. Distant metastasis was related to mate gender. Discussion: Predictive models based on clinical and biomolecular data could be used to predict individual risk for metastasis. Patients under a high individual risk for lymph node metastasis should be considered as candidates to mediastinal lymphadenectomy. Those under a high risk of distant metastasis should be followed-up as having an aggressive disease. Conclusion: Individual risk prediction of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor metastasis for patients operated on can be calculated in function of biomolecular data. Prediction models can detect high-risk patients and help surgeons to identify patients requiring radical lymphadenectomy and help oncologists to identify those as having an aggressive disease requiring prolonged follow-up. (C) 2008 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Background: HTLV-1/2 diagnosis in high-risk populations from Sao Paulo, Brazil has been problematic due a high proportion of seroindeterminate results. Objectives: To confirm and extend previous findings regarding HTLV-1/2 diagnosis in this geographic area. Study design: Sera from 2312 patients were tested for HTLV-1/2 antibodies using enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and Western blot (WB) analysis. Patients were from AIDS Reference Centers (Group 1; 1393 patients) and HTLV out-patient clinics (Group 11; 919 patients). Results were analyzed according to patients` age, gender, and clinic type. Results: HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 were detected in both groups. Among seropositive females, HTLV-2 was slightly more common in Group 1 (54.5%), while HTLV-1 prevailed in Group II (73.9%). Males from Group II had a higher percentage of HTLV-seroindeterminate results. No correlation between HTLV serological results and age was detected. Temporal analyses disclosed a high number of HTLV-seroindeterminate samples, and a large spectrum of indeterminate WB profiles. GD21 and/or rgp46-II bands were detected in 34.6% of sera from Group 1, and a p24 or p19 band was detected in 35.3% of sera from Group II. Conclusions: High rates of HTLV-indeterminate serological patterns during temporal analyses were confirmed in high-risk populations from Sao Paulo, Brazil. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The Canoparmelia texana epiphytic lichenized fungi was used to monitor atmospheric pollution in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, SP, Brazil. The cluster analysis applied to the element concentration values confirmed the site groups of different levels of pollution due to industrial and vehicular emissions. In the distribution maps of element concentrations, higher concentrations of Ba and Mn were observed in the vicinity of industries and of a petrochemical complex. The highest concentration of Co found in lichens from the Sao Miguel Paulista site is due to the emissions from a metallurgical processing plant that produces this element. For Br and Zn, the highest concentrations could be associated both to vehicular and industrial emissions. Exploratory analyses revealed that the accumulation of toxic elements in C. texana may be of use in evaluating the human risk of cardiopulmonary mortality due to prolonged exposure to ambient levels of air pollution. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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In Brazil, sugarcane fields are often burned to facilitate manual harvesting, and this burning causes environmental pollution from the large amounts of soot released into the atmosphere. This material contains numerous organic compounds such as PAHs. In this study, the concentrations of PAHs in two particulate-matter fractions (PM(2.5) and PM(10)) in the city of Araraquara (SE Brazil, with around 200,000 inhabitants and surrounded by sugarcane plantations) were determined during the sugarcane harvest (HV) and non-harvest (NHV) seasons in 2008 and 2009. The sampling strategy included four campaigns, with 60 samples in the NHV season and 220 samples in the HV season. The PM(2.5) and PM(10) fractions were collected using a dichotomous sampler (10 L min(-1), 24 h) with Teflon (TM) filters. The filter sets were extracted (ultrasonic bath with hexane/acetone (1:1 v/v)) and analyzed by HPLC/Fluorescence. The median concentration for total PAHs (PM(2.5) in 2009) was 0.99 ng m(-3) (NHV) and 3.3 ng m(-3) (HV). In the HV season, the total concentration of carcinogenic PAHs (benz(a)anthracene, benzo(b)fluoranthene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, and benzo(a)pyrene) was 5 times higher than in the NHV season. B(a)P median concentrations were 0.017 ng m(-3) and 0.12 ng m(-3) for the NHV and HV seasons, respectively. The potential cancer risk associated with exposure through inhalation of these compounds was estimated based on the benzo[a]pyrene toxic equivalence (BaP(eq)), where the overall toxicity of a PAR mixture is defined by the concentration of each compound multiplied by its relative toxic equivalence factor (TEF). BaP(eq) median (2008 and 2009 years) ranged between 0.65 and 1.0 ng m(-3) and 1.2-1.4 ng m(-3) for the NHV and HV seasons, respectively. Considering that the maximum permissible BaPeq in ambient air is 1 ng m(-3), related to the increased carcinogenic risk, our data suggest that the level of human exposure to PAHs in cities surrounded by sugarcane crops where the burning process is used is cause for concern. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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Background: Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for depression with the aim of developing a practical probabilistic model of depression that can be used to guide risk reduction strategies. \Methods: A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 20,677 community-dwelling Australians aged 60 years or over in contact with their general practitioner during the preceding 12 months. Prevalent depression (minor or major) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessment was the main outcome of interest. Other measured exposures included self-reported age, gender, education, loss of mother or father before age 15 years, physical or sexual abuse before age 15 years, marital status, financial stress, social support, smoking and alcohol use, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. Results: The mean age of participants was 71.7 +/- 7.6 years and 57.9% were women. Depression was present in 1665 (8.0%) of our subjects. Multivariate logistic regression showed depression was independently associated with age older than 75 years, childhood adverse experiences, adverse lifestyle practices (smoking, risk alcohol use, physical inactivity), intermediate health hazards (obesity, diabetes and hypertension), comorbid medical conditions (clinical history of coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema or cancers), and social or financial strain. We stratified the exposures to build a matrix that showed that the probability of depression increased progressively with the accumulation of risk factors, from less than 3% for those with no adverse factors to more than 80% for people reporting the maximum number of risk factors. Conclusions: Our probabilistic matrix can be used to estimate depression risk and to guide the introduction of risk reduction strategies. Future studies should now aim to clarify whether interventions designed to mitigate the impact of risk factors can change the prevalence and incidence of depression in later life.
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Objective: Although suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, clinicians and researchers lack a data-driven method to assess the risk of suicide attempts. This study reports the results of an analysis of a large cross-national epidemiologic survey database that estimates the 12-month prevalence of suicidal behaviors, identifies risk factors for suicide attempts, and combines these factors to create a risk index for 12-month suicide attempts separately for developed and developing countries. Method: Data come from the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys (conducted 2001-2007), in which 108,705 adults from 21 countries were interviewed using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview. The survey assessed suicidal behaviors and potential risk factors across multiple domains, including socio-demographic characteristics, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, DSM-IV disorders, and history of suicidal behavior. Results: Twelve-month prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans, and attempts are 2.0%, 0.6%, and 0.3%, respectively, for developed countries and 2.1%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, respectively, for developing countries. Risk factors for suicidal behaviors in both developed and developing countries include female sex, younger age, lower education and income, unmarried status, unemployment, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, and presence of diverse 12-month DSM-IV mental disorders. Combining risk factors from multiple domains produced risk indices that accurately predicted 12-month suicide attempts in both developed and developing countries (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.74-0.80). Conclusions: Suicidal behaviors occur at similar rates in both developed and developing countries. Risk indices assessing multiple domains can predict suicide attempts with fairly good accuracy and may be useful in aiding clinicians in the prediction of these behaviors. J Clin Psychiatry 2010;71(12):1617-1628 (C) Copyright 2010 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.
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Background: Increasing age and cholesterol levels, male gender, and family history of early coronary heart disease (CHD) are associated with early onset of CHD in familial hypercholesterolemia (FH). Objective: Assess subclinical atherosclerosis by computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) and its association with clinical and laboratorial parameters in asymptomatic FH subjects. Methods: 102 FH subjects (36% male, 45 +/- 13 years, LDL-c 280 +/- 54 mg/dL) and 35 controls (40% male, 46 +/- 12 years, LDL-c 103 +/- 18 mg/dL) were submitted to CTCA. Plaques were divided into calcified, mixed and non-calcified; luminal stenosis was characterized as >50% obstruction. Results: FH had a greater atherosclerotic burden represented by higher number of patients with: plaques (48% vs. 14%, p = 0.0005), stenosis (19% vs. 3%, p = 0.015), segments with plaques (2.05 +/- 2.85 vs. 0.43 +/- 1.33, p = 0.0016) and calcium scores (55 perpendicular to 129 vs. 38 perpendicular to 140, p = 0.0028). After multivariate analysis, determinants of plaque presence were increasing age (OR = 2.06, for age change of 10 years, CI95%: 1.38-3.07, p < 0.001) and total cholesterol (OR = 1.86, for cholesterol change by 1 standard deviation, CI95%: 1.09-3.15, p = 0.027). Coronary calcium score was associated with the presence of stenosis (OR = 1.54; CI95%: 1.27-1.86, p < 0.001, for doubling the calcium score). Male gender was directly associated with the presence of non-calcified plaques (OR: 15.45, CI95% 1.72-138.23, p = 0.014) and inversely with calcified plaques (OR = 0.21, CI95%: 0.05-0.84, p = 0.027). Family history of early CHD was associated with the presence of mixed plaques (OR = 4.90, CI95%: 1.32-18.21, p = 0.018). Conclusions: Patients with FH had an increased burden of coronary atherosclerosis by CTCA. The burden of atherosclerosis and individual plaque subtypes differed with the presence of other associated risk factors, with age and cholesterol being most important. A coronary calcium score of zero ruled out obstructive disease in this higher risk population. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, but the precise effect of childhood adversities as risk factors for the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour (suicide ideation, plans and attempts) are not well understood. Aims To examine the associations between childhood adversities as risk factors for the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour across 21 countries worldwide. Method Respondents from nationally representative samples (n = 55 299) were interviewed regarding childhood adversities that occurred before the age of 18 years and lifetime suicidal behaviour. Results Childhood adversities were associated with an increased risk of suicide attempt and ideation in both bivariate and multivariate models (odds ratio range 1.2-5.7). The risk increased with the number of adversities experienced, but at a decreasing rate. Sexual and physical abuse were consistently the strongest risk factors for both the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour, especially during adolescence. Associations remained similar after additional adjustment for respondents` lifetime mental disorder status. Conclusions Childhood adversities (especially intrusive or aggressive adversities) are powerful predictors of the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviours.
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Background: Current diagnostic criteria cannot capture the full range of bipolar spectrum. This study aims to clarify the natural co-segregation of manic-depressive symptoms occurring in the general population. Methods: Using data from the Sao Paulo Catchment Area Study, latent class analysis (LCA) was applied to eleven manic and fourteen depressive symptoms assessed through CIDI 1.1 in 1464 subjects from a community-based study in Sao Paulo, Brazil. All manic symptoms were assessed, regardless of presence of euphoria or irritability, and demographics, services used, suicidality and CIDI/DSM-IIIR mood disorders used to external validate the classes. Results: The four obtained classes were labeled Euthymics (EU; 49.1%), Mild Affectives (MA; 31.1%), Bipolars (BIP; 10.7%), and Depressives (DEP; 9%). BIP and DEP classes represented bipolar and depressive spectra, respectively. Compared to DEP class, BIP exhibited more atypical depressive characteristics (hypersomnia and increase in appetite and/or weight gain), risk of suicide, and use of services. Depressives had rates of atypical symptoms and suicidality comparable to oligosymptomatic MA class subjects. Limitations: The use of lay interviewers and DSM-IIIR diagnostic criteria, which are more restrictive than the currently used DSM-IV TR. Conclusions: Findings of high prevalence of bipolar spectrum and of atypical symptoms and suicidality as indicators of bipolarity are of great clinical importance, due to different treatment needs, and higher severity. Lifetime sub-affective and syndromic manic symptoms are clinically significant, arguing for the need Of revising DSM bipolar spectrum categories. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Individual randomized clinical trials (RCTs) with cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) aiming to delay the progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer`s disease (AD) have not found significant benefit of their use for this purpose. The objective of this study is to meta-analyze the RCTs conducted with ChEIs in order to assess whether pooled analysis could show the benefit of these drugs in delaying the progression from MCI to AD. We searched for references of published and unpublished studies on electronic databases (Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and Clinical Trial Database Registry, particularly the Clinicaltrials.gov-http://www.clinicaltrials.gov). We retrieved 173 references, which yielded three references for data extraction. A total of 3.574 subjects from four RCTs were included in the meta-analysis. Among 1,784 subjects allocated in the ChEI-treatment group, 275 (15.4%) progressed to AD/dementia, as opposed to 366 (20.4%) out of 1,790 subjects in the placebo group. The relative risk (RR) for progression to AD/dementia in the ChEI-treated group was 0.75 [CI(95%) 0.66-0.87], z = -3.89, P < 0.001. The patients on the ChEI group had a significantly higher all-cause dropout risk than the patients on the placebo group (RR = 1.36 CI(95%) [1.24-1.49]; z = 6.59, P < 0.001). The RR for serious adverse events (SAE) in the ChEI-treated group showed no significantly statistical difference from the placebo group (RR = 0.95 [CI(95%) 0.83-1.09], z = -0.72, P = 0.47). The subjects in the ChEI-treated group had a marginally, non-significant, higher risk of death due to any cause than those in the placebo-treated group (RR = 1.04, CI(95%) 0.63-1.70, z = 0.16, P = 0.86). The long-term use of ChEIs in subjects with MCI may attenuate the risk of progression to AD/dementia. This finding may have a significant impact on public health and pharmaco-economic policies.
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Background and Purpose-Plasma glutathione peroxidase (GPx-3) is a major antioxidant enzyme in plasma and the extracellular space that scavenges reactive oxygen species produced during normal metabolism or after oxidative insult. A deficiency of this enzyme increases extracellular oxidant stress, promotes platelet activation, and may promote oxidative posttranslational modification of fibrinogen. We recently identified a haplotype (H-2) in the GPx-3 gene promoter that increases the risk of arterial ischemic stroke among children and young adults. Methods-The aim of this study is to identify possible relationships between promoter haplotypes in the GPx-3 gene and cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT). We studied the GPx-3 gene promoter from 23 patients with CVT and 123 young controls (18 to 45 years) by single-stranded conformational polymorphism and sequencing analysis. Results-Over half of CVT patients (52.1%) were heterozygous (H1H2) or homozygous (H2H2) carriers of the H-2 haplotype compared with 12.2% of controls, yielding a more than 10-fold independent increase in the risk of CVT (OR=10.7; 95% CI, 2.70 to 42.36; P<0.0001). Among women, the interaction of the H2 haplotype with hormonal risk factors increased the OR of CVT to almost 70 (P<0.0001). Conclusions-These findings show that a novel GPx-3 promoter haplotype is a strong, independent risk factor for CVT. As we have previously shown that this haplotype is associated with a reduction in transcriptional activity, which compromises antioxidant activity and antithrombotic benefits of the enzyme, these results suggest that a deficiency of GPx-3 leads to a cerebral venous thrombophilic state.