961 resultados para Probabilistic choice models


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While Australia is considered a world leader in tobacco control, smoking rates within the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population have not declined at the same rate. This failure highlights an obvious shortcoming of mainstream anti-smoking efforts to effectively understand and engage with the socio-cultural context of Indigenous smoking and smoking cessation experiences. The purpose of this article is to explore the narrative accounts of 20 Indigenous ex-smokers within an urban community and determine the motivators and enablers for successful smoking cessation. Our findings indicated that health risk narratives and the associated social stigma produced through anti-smoking campaigns formed part of a broader apparatus of oppression among Indigenous people, often inspiring resistance and resentment rather than compliance. Instead, a significant life event and supportive relationships were the most useful predictors of successful smoking cessation acting as both a motivator and enabler to behavioural change. Indigenous smoking cessation narratives most commonly involved changing and reordering a person’s life and identity and autonomy over this process was the critical building block to reclaiming control over nicotine addiction. Most promisingly, at an individual level, we found the important role that individual health professionals played in encouraging and supporting Indigenous smoking cessation through positive rather than punitive interactions. More broadly, our findings highlighted the central importance of resilience, empowerment, and trust within health promotion practice.

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The aim of this study was to identify what outcome measures or quality indicators are being used to evaluate advanced and new roles in nine allied health professions and whether the measures are evaluating outcomes of interest to the patient, the clinician, or the healthcare provider. A systematic search strategy was used. Medical and allied health databases were searched and relevant articles extracted. Relevant studies with at least 1 outcome measure were evaluated. A total of 106 articles were identified that described advanced roles, however, only 23 of these described an outcome measure in sufficient detail to be included for review. The majority of the reported measures fit into the economic and process categories. The most reported outcome related to patients was satisfaction surveys. Measures of patient health outcomes were infrequently reported. It is unclear from the studies evaluated whether new models of allied healthcare can be shown to be as safe and effective as traditional care for a given procedure. Outcome measures chosen to evaluate these services often reflect organizational need and not patient outcomes. Organizations need to ensure that high-quality performance measures are chosen to evaluate the success of new health service innovations. There needs to be a move away from in-house type surveys that add little or no valid evidence as to the effect of a new innovation. More importance needs to be placed on patient outcomes as a measure of the quality of allied health interventions.

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Emergency health is a critical component of Australia’s health system and one which is increasingly congested from growing demand and blocked access to inpatient beds. The Emergency Health Services Queensland (EHSQ) study aims to identify the factors driving increased demand for emergency health and to evaluate strategies which may safely reduce the future demand growth. This monograph addresses the characteristics of users of emergency health services with an aim to identify those that appear to contribute to demand growth. This study utilises data on patients treated by Emergency Departments (ED) and Queensland Ambulance Service (QAS) across Queensland. ED data was derived from the Emergency Department Information System (EDIS) for the period 2001-02 through to 2010-11. Ambulance data was extracted from the QAS’ Ambulance Information Management System (AIMS) and electronic Ambulance Report Form (eARF) for the period 2001-02 through to 2009-10. Due to discrepancies and comparability issues for ED data, this monograph compares data from the 2003-04 time period with 2010-11 data for 21 of the reporting EDs. Also a snapshot of users for the 2010-11 financial year for 31 reporting EDs is used to describe the characteristics of users and to compare those characteristics with population demographics. For QAS data, the 2002-03 and 2009-10 time periods were selected for detailed analyses to identify trends. • Demand for emergency health care services is increasing, representing both increased population and increased relative utilisation. Per capita demand for ED attention has increased by 2% per annum over the last decade and for ambulance attention by 3.7% per annum. • The growth in ED demand is prominent in more urgent triage categories with actual decline in less urgent patients. An estimated 55% of patients attend hospital EDs outside of normal working hours. There is no evidence that patients presenting out of hours are significantly different to those presenting within working hours; they have similar triage assessments and outcomes. • Patients suffering from injuries and poisoning comprise 28% of the ED workload (an increase of 65% in the study period), whilst declines of 32% in cardiovascular and circulatory conditions, and musculoskeletal problems have been observed. • 25.6% of patients attending EDs are admitted to hospital. 19% of admitted patients and 7% of patients who die in the ED are triage category 4 or 5 on arrival. • The average age of ED patients is 35.6 years. Demand has grown in all age groups and amongst both men and women. Men have higher utilisation rates for ED in all age groups. The only group where the growth rate in women has exceeded men is in the 20-29 age group; this growth is particularly in the injury and poisoning categories. • Considerable attention has been paid publicly to ED performance criteria. It is worth noting that 50% of all patients were treated within 33 minutes of arrival. • Patients from lower socioeconomic areas appear to have higher utilisation rates and the utilisation rate for indigenous people appears to exceed those of European and other backgrounds. The utilisation rates for immigrant people is generally less than that of Australian born however it has not been possible to eliminate the confounding impact of different age and socioeconomic profiles. • Demand for ambulance service is also increasing at a rate that exceeds population growth. Utilisation rates have increased by an average of 5% per annum in Queensland compared to 3.6% nationally, and the utilisation rate in Queensland is 27% higher than the national average. • The growth in ambulance utilisation has also been amongst the more urgent categories of dispatch and utilisation rates are higher in rural and regional areas than in the metropolitan area. The demand for ambulance increases with age but the growth in demand for ambulance service has been more prominent in younger age groups. These findings contribute significantly to an understanding of the growth in demand for emergency health. It shows that the growth is amongst patients in genuine need of emergency healthcare and public rhetoric that the congestion of emergency health services is due to inappropriate attendees is unable to be substantiated. The consistency of the growth in demand over the last decade reflects not only the changing demographics of the Australian population but also the changes in health status, standards of acute health care and other social factors. The growth is also amongst patients with acute injury and poisoning which is inconsistent with rates of chronic disease as a fundamental driver. We have also interviewed patients in regard to their decision making choices for acute health care and the factors that influence these decisions and this will be the subject of a third Monograph and publications.

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A mineralogical survey of chondritic interplanetary dust particles (IDPs)showed that these micrometeorites differ significantly in form and texture from components of carbonaceous chondrites and contain some mineral assemblages which do not occur in any meteorite class1. Models of chondritic IDP mineral evolution generally ignore the typical (ultra-) fine grain size of consituent minerals which range between 0.002-0.1µm in size2. The chondritic porous (CP) subset of chondritic IDPs is probably debris from short period comets although evidence for a cometary origin is still circumstantial3. If CP IDPs represent dust from regions of the Solar System in which comet accretion occurred, it can be argued that pervasive mineralogical evolution of IDP dust has been arrested due to cryogenic storage in comet nuclei. Thus, preservation in CP IDPs of "unusual meteorite minerals", such as oxides of tin, bismuth and titanium4, should not be dismissed casually. These minerals may contain specific information about processes that occurred in regions of the solar nebula, and early Solar System, which spawned the IDP parent bodies such as comets and C, P and D asteroids6. It is not fully appreciated that the apparent disparity between the mineralogy of CP IDPs and carbonaceous chondrite matrix may also be caused by the choice of electron-beam techniques with different analytical resolution. For example, Mg-Si-Fe distributions of Cl matrix obtained by "defocussed beam" microprobe analyses are displaced towards lower Fe-values when using analytical electron microscope (AEM)data which resolve individual mineral grains of various layer silicates and magnetite in the same matrix6,7. In general, "unusual meteorite minerals" in chondritic IDPs, such as metallic titanium, Tin01-n(Magneli phases) and anatase8 add to the mineral data base of fine-grained Solar System materials and provide constraints on processes that occurred in the early Solar System.

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Developers and policy makers are consistently at odds over the debate as to whether impact fees increase house prices. This debate continues despite the extensive body of theoretical and empirical international literature that discusses the passing on to home buyers of impact fees, and the corresponding increase to housing prices. In attempting to quantify this impact, over a dozen empirical studies have been carried out in the US and Canada since the 1980’s. However the methodologies used vary greatly, as do the results. Despite similar infrastructure funding policies in numerous developed countries, no such empirical works exist outside of the US/Canada. The purpose of this research is to analyse the existing econometric models in order to identify, compare and contrast the theoretical bases, methodologies, key assumptions and findings of each. This research will assist in identifying if further model development is required and/or whether any of these models have external validity and are readily transferable outside of the US. The findings conclude that there is very little explicit rationale behind the various model selections and that significant model deficiencies appear still to exist.

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This paper examines whether innovation in market design can address persistent problems of housing choice and affordability in the ageing inner and middle suburbs of Australian cities. Despite policy consensus that urban intensification of these low density, ‘greyfield’ areas should be able to deliver positive social, economic and environmental outcomes, existing models of development have not increased housing stock or delivered adequate gains in sustainability, affordability or diversity of dwellings in greyfield localities. We argue that application of smart market and matching market principles to the supply of multi-unit housing can unlock land, reduce development costs and improve design.

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Automatic Call Recognition is vital for environmental monitoring. Patten recognition has been applied in automatic species recognition for years. However, few studies have applied formal syntactic methods to species call structure analysis. This paper introduces a novel method to adopt timed and probabilistic automata in automatic species recognition based upon acoustic components as the primitives. We demonstrate this through one kind of birds in Australia: Eastern Yellow Robin.

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A synthesis is presented of the predictive capability of a family of near-wall wall-normal free Reynolds stress models (which are completely independent of wall topology, i.e., of the distance fromthe wall and the normal-to-thewall orientation) for oblique-shock-wave/turbulent-boundary-layer interactions. For the purpose of comparison, results are also presented using a standard low turbulence Reynolds number k–ε closure and a Reynolds stress model that uses geometric wall normals and wall distances. Studied shock-wave Mach numbers are in the range MSW = 2.85–2.9 and incoming boundary-layer-thickness Reynolds numbers are in the range Reδ0 = 1–2×106. Computations were carefully checked for grid convergence. Comparison with measurements shows satisfactory agreement, improving on results obtained using a k–ε model, and highlights the relative importance of redistribution and diffusion closures, indicating directions for future modeling work.

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The use of Bayesian methodologies for solving optimal experimental design problems has increased. Many of these methods have been found to be computationally intensive for design problems that require a large number of design points. A simulation-based approach that can be used to solve optimal design problems in which one is interested in finding a large number of (near) optimal design points for a small number of design variables is presented. The approach involves the use of lower dimensional parameterisations that consist of a few design variables, which generate multiple design points. Using this approach, one simply has to search over a few design variables, rather than searching over a large number of optimal design points, thus providing substantial computational savings. The methodologies are demonstrated on four applications, including the selection of sampling times for pharmacokinetic and heat transfer studies, and involve nonlinear models. Several Bayesian design criteria are also compared and contrasted, as well as several different lower dimensional parameterisation schemes for generating the many design points.

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This chapter is a tutorial that teaches you how to design extended finite state machine (EFSM) test models for a system that you want to test. EFSM models are more powerful and expressive than simple finite state machine (FSM) models, and are one of the most commonly used styles of models for model-based testing, especially for embedded systems. There are many languages and notations in use for writing EFSM models, but in this tutorial we write our EFSM models in the familiar Java programming language. To generate tests from these EFSM models we use ModelJUnit, which is an open-source tool that supports several stochastic test generation algorithms, and we also show how to write your own model-based testing tool. We show how EFSM models can be used for unit testing and system testing of embedded systems, and for offline testing as well as online testing.

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This paper describes a new approach to establish the probabilistic cable rating based on cable thermal environment studies. Knowledge of cable parameters has been well established. However the environment in which the cables are buried is not so well understood. Research in Queensland University of Technology has been aimed at obtaining and analysing actual daily field values of thermal resistivity and diffusivity of the soil around power cables. On-line monitoring systems have been developed and installed with a data logger system and buried spheres that use an improved technique to measure thermal resistivity and diffusivity over a short period. Based on the long-term continuous field data for more than 4 years, a probabilistic approach is developed to establish the correlation between the measured field thermal resistivity values and rainfall data from weather bureau records. Hence, a probabilistic cable rating can be established based on monthly probabilistic distribution of thermal resistivity

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Background subtraction is a fundamental low-level processing task in numerous computer vision applications. The vast majority of algorithms process images on a pixel-by-pixel basis, where an independent decision is made for each pixel. A general limitation of such processing is that rich contextual information is not taken into account. We propose a block-based method capable of dealing with noise, illumination variations, and dynamic backgrounds, while still obtaining smooth contours of foreground objects. Specifically, image sequences are analyzed on an overlapping block-by-block basis. A low-dimensional texture descriptor obtained from each block is passed through an adaptive classifier cascade, where each stage handles a distinct problem. A probabilistic foreground mask generation approach then exploits block overlaps to integrate interim block-level decisions into final pixel-level foreground segmentation. Unlike many pixel-based methods, ad-hoc postprocessing of foreground masks is not required. Experiments on the difficult Wallflower and I2R datasets show that the proposed approach obtains on average better results (both qualitatively and quantitatively) than several prominent methods. We furthermore propose the use of tracking performance as an unbiased approach for assessing the practical usefulness of foreground segmentation methods, and show that the proposed approach leads to considerable improvements in tracking accuracy on the CAVIAR dataset.

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This article addresses the transformation of a process model with an arbitrary topology into an equivalent structured process model. In particular, this article studies the subclass of process models that have no equivalent well-structured representation but which, nevertheless, can be partially structured into their maximally-structured representation. The transformations are performed under a behavioral equivalence notion that preserves the observed concurrency of tasks in equivalent process models. The article gives a full characterization of the subclass of acyclic process models that have no equivalent well-structured representation, but do have an equivalent maximally-structured one, as well as proposes a complete structuring method. Together with our previous results, this article completes the solution of the process model structuring problem for the class of acyclic process models.