Essays on the credit channel of monetary policy: a case study for Brazil

The onset of the financial crisis in 2008 and the European sovereign crisis in 2010 renewed the interest of macroeconomists on the role played by credit in business cycle fluctuations. The purpose of the present work is to present empirical evidence on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Brazil with a special eye on the role played by the credit channel, using different econometric techniques. It is comprised by three articles. The first one presents a review of the literature of financial frictions, with a focus on the overlaps between credit activity and the monetary policy. It highlights how the sharp disruptions in the financial markets spurred central banks in developed and emerging nations to deploy of a broad set of non conventional tools to overcome the damage on financial intermediation. A chapter is dedicated to the challenge face by the policymaking in emerging markets and Brazil in particular in the highly integrated global capital market. This second article investigates the implications of the credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the case of Brazil, using a structural FAVAR (SFAVAR) approach. The term “structural” comes from the estimation strategy, which generates factors that have a clear economic interpretation. The results show that unexpected shocks in the proxies for the external finance premium and the credit volume produce large and persistent fluctuations in inflation and economic activity – accounting for more than 30% of the error forecast variance of the latter in a three-year horizon. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that the credit channel amplified the economic contraction in Brazil during the acute phase of the global financial crisis in the last quarter of 2008, thus gave an important impulse to the recovery period that followed. In the third articles, I make use of Bayesian estimation of a classical neo-Keynesian DSGE model, incorporating the financial accelerator channel developed by Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999). The results present evidences in line to those already seen in the previous article: disturbances on the external finance premium – represented here by credit spreads – trigger significant responses on the aggregate demand and inflation and monetary policy shocks are amplified by the financial accelerator mechanism. Keywords: Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Credit Channel, Financial Accelerator, FAVAR, DSGE, Bayesian Econometrics

Relationship of Coca-Cola Brazil and the communities participant of the social projects: (im) possibilities

Five years ago, Coca-Cola Brasil launched a program named “Coletivo Project”, with the purpose to enjoy an opportunity of increase on the potential consumption power of the low-income pyramid population that lived on the “favelas”. At the same time, it had the objective to offer to them a social and financial impact, which is a trust on the future, the first job for the young adults’ participant of this program and an increase on their family source of revenues, through salaries. This was possible because through Coletivo Project, Coca-Cola identified the assets they have through its value chain, focusing on its competencies, such as retail, merchandising and logistics to apply them on courses to teach the young people of the communities and, as a result, form them to be able to find their new jobs. Internal indicators followed in a monthly basis by Coca-Cola demonstrated that the communities that had the presence of Coletivos, in comparison to those without Coletivos, had social and financial impacts. The social was the fact that the young formed started to have more confidence on their future and felt with a higher self-stem to apply for and obtain their first job. On the financial aspect, they were benefit through the increasing of their revenues and also their families and Coca-Cola had an increase on sales, when compared to a community without a Coletivo Project installed. This dissertation seeks to identify the current relationship between Coca-Cola and the communities, through the Coletivo Project classes performed on the NGOs located at this places, in order to identify opportunities for improvement the benefits and the impacts (financial and social) on the NGOs, communities and all stakeholders of this project. This dissertation examines this relationship, through presence interviews performed on four NGOs selected, and located on four of the twenty communities, that are participants of the Coletivo Project on Rio de Janeiro city. These interviews performed with the students, representatives and educators of these NGOs. The covered period of the interviews ranges from April 2014 to August 2014. This dissertation draws on first-hand qualitative empirical evidence gathered through extensive fieldwork. The main findings among possibilities for improvement by Coca-Cola are: • Implement new courses, beyond those existent at Coca-Cola (Retail, Logistics, etc.). • Increase the content of the employment module of Coletivo classes, focusing on improving educational, cultural, economic, political, social and professional life. • Increase the scale, through the quantity of positions on the Retail Coletivo classes. • Develop cultural and sports events with the communities. • Support the points of sales, participant of the practical classes of the Coletivo Retail, with refrigerators and furniture with the Coca-Cola logo. • Provide coffee breaks and meals during the Coletivo classes, using Coca-Cola beverages and partners for food items, developing the nutrition platform of the company and filling a need of the students. • Perform a research with all stakeholders related to this Project, including those students and mothers that are not participant of the Coletivo, in order to listen to them, understand their needs, and offer solutions to fulfill these gaps. and on the side of the • Perform partnerships with educational institutions to make viable other type of courses, more technical, but that have a relation with the core business of Coca-Cola Brasil, such as marketing. • Implement the Coca-Cola University, already existed at the Company. • Create courses or activities focused on the children. Regarding the impossibilities, the findings are: • Improve the basic sanitation of the communities. • Improve the safety on the communities. • Provide a home to those do not have. • Implement courses that have no relationship with Coca-Cola business and expertise, such as gastronomy. However, Coca-Cola can influence stakeholders on that. The results suggest to executives of Coca-Cola that a deep and a qualitative research on the communities of Brazil, in order to listen young people, educators, mothers, partners that offer jobs, from Coletivo and out of the project, is mandatory, to understand their needs, dreams, complains and offer valuable solutions to all.

The failure of early-stage technology startups in Brazil: a study about the contributing factors to the early-death of startups between 2009 and 2014 in Southeastern Brazil

This research aimed to find out which are the main factors that lead technology startups to fail. The study focused on companies located in the Southeast region of Brazil that operated between 2009 and 2014. In the beginning, a review of the literature was done to have a better understanding of basic concepts of entrepreneurship as well as modern techniques for developing entrepreneurship. Furthermore, an analysis of the entrepreneurial scenario in Brazil, with a focus on the Southeast, was also done. After this phase, the qualitative study began, in which 24 specialists from startups were interviewed and asked about which factors were crucial in leading a technology startup to fail. After analyzing the results, four main factors were identified and these factors were validated through a quantitative survey. A questionnaire was then formulated based on the answers from the respondents and distributed to founders and executives of startups, which both failed and succeeded. The questionnaire was answered by 56 companies and their answers were treated with the factor analysis statistical method to check the validity of the questionnaire. Finally, the logistical regression method was used to know the extent to which the factors led to the startups’ failure. In the end, the results obtained suggest that the most significant factor that leads technology startups in southeastern Brazil to fail are problems with interpersonal relationship between partners or investors.

The Culture of entrepreneurship: a study of the entrepreneurial motivation and attitudes towards business creation in the UAE in comparison to the US and Brazil

This study demonstrates the cultural dimension and the surrounding environment of different entrepreneurs selected from three countries, the United States of America, the Federative Republic of Brazil, and the United Arab Emirates. The general objective is to understand the difference in the entrepreneurial motives and spirit towards venture creation from the three different countries. After conducting field research and collecting the required data, a deep analysis was conducted to draw a comparison between the three cultures from an individual’s point of view, to help shape a set of proposed recommendations, which could be used to improve the current culture of entrepreneurship in the UAE.

Lighting and violent crimes: evaluating the effect of an electrification policy in rural Brazil on violent crime reduction

This paper estimates the effect of lighting on violent crime reduction. We explore an electrification program (LUZ PARA TODOS or Light for All - LPT) adopted by the federal government to expand electrification to rural areas in all Brazilian municipalities in the 2000s as an exogenous source of variation in electrification expansion. Our instrumental variable results show a reduction in homicide rates (approximately five homicides per 100,000 inhabitants) on rural roads/urban streets when a municipality moved from no access to full coverage of electricity between 2000 and 2010. These findings are even more significant in the northern and northeastern regions of Brazil, where rates of electrification are lower than those of the rest of the country and, thus, where the program is concentrated. In the north (northeast), the number of violent deaths on the streets per 100,000 inhabitants decreased by 48.12 (13.43). This moved a municipality at the 99th percentile (75th) to the median (zero) of the crime distribution of municipalities. Finally, we do not find effects on violent deaths in households and at other locations. Because we use an IV strategy by exploring the LPT program eligibility criteria, we can interpret the results as the estimated impact of the program on those experiencing an increase in electricity coverage due to their program eligibility. Thus, the results represent local average treatment effects of lighting on homicides.

The impacts of TTIP on Brazil

The objective of this project is to analyze the effects for Brazil of the conclusion of TTIP. This is approached under different hypotheses: considering the effects on Brazil of a TTIP with the reduction of only tariff barriers between US and EU; introducing a partial reduction of non-tariff barriers; and, at last, with a complete reduction of these barriers. To finalize, an audacious alternative is assumed: a hypothetical participation of Brazil in the TTIP under a partial reduction of agricultural tariffs by the US and EU markets, and under a full liberalization of their agricultural markets. The methodology used to estimate non-tariff barriers was presented in the Ecorys Project (2009) developed by Berden e Francois to the European Commission.

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Diversity of decapod crustaceans at the interface of unconsolidated seabed areas and rocky shores in tropical/subtropical Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Description of new cicada species associated with the coffee plant and an identification key for the species of Fidicinoides (Hemiptera: Cicadidae) from Brazil

The genus Fidicinoides Boulard & Martinelli is characterized by its partially exposed timbal, not totally covered by the meta-scutellar plate as occurs in Fidicina Amyot & Serville, and has an extensive geographic distribution in Central and South America. In this work a new species for the genus is described. Fidicinoides sarutaiensis Santos, Martinelli & Maccagnan sp. n. is a medium-sized cicada, with the collected and studied specimens associated with coffee (Coffee arabica L.), in the municipality of Sarutaia, in the southeast region of São Paulo state. The species F. glauca (Goding, 1925) and F. viridifemur (Walker, 1850) are transferred to Dorisiana. An identification key for the Fidicinoides species of Brazil is also proposed.

Molecular characterization of group A bovine rotavirus in southeastern and central-western Brazil, 2009-2010

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Serologic evidence of equine granulocytic anaplasmosis in horses from central West Brazil

A Erliquiose é uma doença zoonótica causada por bactérias gram-negativas e intracelulares obrigatórias. A Anaplasmose Granulocítica Equina - AGE (anteriormente denominada Erliquiose Granulocítica Equina, EGE) é uma enfermidade sazonal, normalmente auto-limitante em equinos. No Brasil, existem poucos relatos deste agente erliquial, bem como de seus vetores naturais. Atualmente, veterinários têm levantado a suspeita de casos de AGE em equinos com sinais clínicos sugestivos de erliquiose e não responsivos ao tratamento para a piroplasmose equina. O objetivo do presente estudo foi identificar equinos expostos a A. phagocytophilum por meio de técnicas sorológicas e moleculares. Vinte amostras de sangue e soro de equinos da região Centro-oeste do Brasil foram avaliados por meio do exame microscópico de capa leucocitária, ensaio imunoenzimático indireto (ELISA), reação de imunofluorescência indireta (RIFI) e reação em cadeia da polimerase (nested PCR). Adicionalmente, o diagnóstico sorológico de Theileria equi pela RIFI e ELISA foram realizados, assim como o diagnóstico molecular pelo nPCR. Treze (65%) amostras de soro foram positivas para A. phagocytophilum pelo teste de ELISA, entretanto nenhum equino foi positivo pelo exame microscópico da capa leucocitária ou nPCR. Anticorpos IgG anti-T. equi foram detectados em 18 (90%) e 17 (85%) equinos pela RIFI e ELISA, respectivamente e o agente foi detectado em 9 (45%) animais pelo nPCR. Estes dados sugerem importante informação para o entendimento da ocorrência da AGE e piroplasmose equina no Centro-oeste do Brasil.

Genetic diversity and population structure of pumas (Puma concolor) in southeastern Brazil: implications for conservation in a human-dominated landscape

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Ecological distribution of the shrimp Litopenaeus schmitti (Burkenroad, 1936) (Decapoda, Penaeoidea) in Ubatuba Bay, São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Sandfly fauna in an area endemic for visceral leishmaniasis in Aracaju, State of Sergipe, Northeast Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Genotyping, serotyping and determination of mating-type of Cryptococcus neoformans clinical isolates from São Paulo State, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)