Does Hope Matter? The Influence of Dispositional Hope on Persistence in a Developmental Writing Course

The purpose of this study was to determine hope’s unique role, if any, in predicting persistence in a developmental writing course. Perceived academic self-efficacy was also included as a variable of interest for comparison because self-efficacy has been more widely studied than hope in terms of its non-cognitive role in predicting academic outcomes. A significant body of research indicates that self-efficacy influences academic motivation to persist and academic performance. Hope, however, is an emerging psychological construct in the study of non-cognitive factors that influence college outcomes and warrants further exploration in higher education. This study examined the predictive value of hope and self-efficacy on persistence in a developmental writing course. The research sample was obtained from a community college in the southeastern United States. Participants were 238 students enrolled in developmental writing courses during their first year of college. Participants were given a questionnaire that included measures for perceived academic self-efficacy and hope. The self-efficacy scale asked participants to self-report on their beliefs about how they cope with different academic tasks in order to be successful. The hope scale asked students to self-report on their beliefs about their capability to initiate action towards a goal (“agency”) and create a plan to attain these goals (“pathways”). This study utilized a correlational research design. A statistical association was estimated between hope and self-efficacy as well as the unique variance contributed by each on course persistence. Correlational analysis confirmed a significant relationship between hope and perceived academic self-efficacy, and a Fisher’s z-transformation confirmed a stronger relationship between the agency component of hope and perceived academic self-efficacy than for the pathways component. A series of multinomial logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess if (a) perceived self-efficacy and hope predict course persistence, (b) hope independent of self-efficacy predicts course persistence, and (c) if including the interaction of perceived self-efficacy and hope predicts course persistence. It was found that hope was only significant independent of self-efficacy. Some implications for future research are drawn for those who lead and coordinate academic support initiatives in student and academic affairs.

Patterns of local R&D cooperation of foreign subsidiaries in an intermediate country: innovative and structural factors

We attempt to contribute to a better understanding of cooperative innovation patterns of foreign subsidiaries (FS) in Spain as a representative intermediate country, going deeply into three main aspects: firstly, a sectoral taxonomy which combines international technological dynamism and revealed technological advantage as a way to understand such patterns. Secondly we focus our attention on innovative intensive subsidiaries, assuming they are the most important ones for hosting countries. Thirdly, we combine innovation and structural-competitive variables to explain local cooperation. We found more intense cooperation of FS with local agents in dynamic specialization sectors, as well as the fact that this is mostly carried out in a complementary mode with inner knowledge capabilities of the companies. Cooperative activities are influenced by economicstructural factors of the Spanish economy, particularly in highly innovative companies. Cooperative strategies of domestic firms might also have an influence on those of foreign subsidiaries.

Risk of fracture amongst patients with Parkinson's disease and other forms of parkinsonism

Acknowledgements We thank all the participants who took part, the research fellows (Kate Taylor, Robert Caslake, David McGhee, Angus Macleod) and nurses (Clare Harris, Joanna Gordon, Anne Hayman, Hazel Forbes) who helped assess the participants, and the study secretaries (Susan Kilpatrick, Pam Rebecca) and data management team (Katie Wilde, David Ritchie). The PINE study was funded by the BMA Doris Hillier award, Parkinson's UK, the RS McDonald Trust, NHS Grampian Endowments, SPRING and the BUPA Foundation. None of the funders had any influence in the study design, the collection, analysis and interpretation of the data, the writing of the report or the decision to submit the article for publication.

Simplified Predictive Instrument to Rule Out Acute Coronary Syndromes in a High-Risk Population.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether diagnostic protocols based on cardiac markers to identify low-risk chest pain patients suitable for early release from the emergency department can be applied to patients older than 65 years or with traditional cardiac risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a single-center retrospective study of 231 consecutive patients with high-risk factor burden in which a first cardiac troponin (cTn) level was measured in the emergency department and a second cTn sample was drawn 4 to 14 hours later, we compared the performance of a modified 2-Hour Accelerated Diagnostic Protocol to Assess Patients with Chest Pain Using Contemporary Troponins as the Only Biomarker (ADAPT) rule to a new risk classification scheme that identifies patients as low risk if they have no known coronary artery disease, a nonischemic electrocardiogram, and 2 cTn levels below the assay's limit of detection. Demographic and outcome data were abstracted through chart review. The median age of our population was 64 years, and 75% had Thrombosis In Myocardial Infarction risk score ≥2. Using our risk classification rule, 53 (23%) patients were low risk with a negative predictive value for 30-day cardiac events of 98%. Applying a modified ADAPT rule to our cohort, 18 (8%) patients were identified as low risk with a negative predictive value of 100%. In a sensitivity analysis, the negative predictive value of our risk algorithm did not change when we relied only on undetectable baseline cTn and eliminated the second cTn assessment. CONCLUSIONS: If confirmed in prospective studies, this less-restrictive risk classification strategy could be used to safely identify chest pain patients with more traditional cardiac risk factors for early emergency department release.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Combinations of ZAP-70, CD38 and IGHV mutational status as predictors of time to first treatment in CLL.

ZAP-70, CD38 and IGHV mutations have all been reported to have prognostic impact in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), both individually and in paired combinations. We aimed to determine whether the combination of all three factors provided more refined prognostic information concerning the treatment-free interval (TFI) from diagnosis. ZAP-70, CD38 and IGHV mutations were evaluated in 142 patients. Combining all three factors, the ZAP-70-/CD38-/Mutated group showed the longest median TFI (62 months, n = 37), ZAP-70+/CD38+/Unmutated cases the shortest (11 months, n = 37) and cases discordant for > or = 1 factor, an intermediate TFI (27 months, n = 68) (p = 0.006). Analysis of discordant cases revealed values that were otherwise masked when measuring single prognostic factors. The presence or absence of cytogenetic abnormalities did not explain the variability among discordant cases. Simultaneous analysis of ZAP-70, CD38 and IGHV mutations in CLL provides more discriminatory prediction of TFI than any factor alone.

Shining a Light on the Dark Side: How the Global Financial Crisis Exposed the Dark Side of Leadership

The global financial crisis has had innumerate outcomes around the globe. Whilst most of these are generally perceived to be negative, there are outcomes which could be considered positive for society. One such outcome is the spotlight that the financial crisis has shone on corruption within organisations and in particular, the role that destructive leaders play in the promotion of negative behaviours within organisations. This interest in identifying so-called ‘dark-side’ traits in leaders is a positive step both academically and practically. Academically, there is a limited research examining individuals with ‘dark-traits’ within organisations (Mahmut, Homewood & Stevenson, 2008). Practically, most leader derailment can be attributed to ‘dark-side’ traits and leaders with such traits are implicated in a host of issues for organisations including poor staff morale and satisfaction, bullying, poor levels of productivity, high staff turnover, unethical behaviour and even white collar crime (e.g. Boddy,2010; 2011; Lesha & Lesha, 2012; O’Boyle, Forsyth, Banks & McDaniel, 2012; Sanecka, 2013). This paper focuses on one of the ‘dark-side’ traits; psychopathy. Psychopathy is a personality disorder characterised by guiltlessness, incapacity to experience love, impulsivity, shallow emotions, superficial charm and an inability to learn from experience (Cleckley, 1941, 1982). Research has found that individuals with high levels of psychopathy can be found working within organisations and experiencing some degree of career success (e.g. Babiak, Neumann & Hare, 2010; Board & Fritzon, 2005; Boddy, 2010; Lilienfeld, Latzman, Watts, Smith & Dutton, 2014). These individuals are theoretically thought to be attracted to careers which offer power, status and monetary rewards. In particular, the finance industry has been suggested as an ideal work place for the organisational psychopath. Some authors go as far as attribute organisational psychopaths a key role in the financial crisis (Boddy, 2011). However, little research has been conducted to explore whether levels of psychopathy in employees differ across industries and what careers might be most attractive to individuals with high levels of psychopathy. This paper presents the results of a large scale survey of 265 alumni of universities in the Central England region of the UK. The survey was conducted to assess the link between levels of three factors of psychopathy (Egotism, Callousness and Antisocialism) with occupation as defined by Holland’s RIASEC model. Participants completed Brinkley, Diamond, Magaletta & Heigel’s (2008) revision of Levenson’s Self-Report Psychopathy Scale and responded to questions regarding their current occupation. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess whether levels of Egotism, Callousness and Antisocialism were predictive of occupation. The results showed that when compared to individuals who occupy job roles within the Social sector of Holland’s model, individuals with higher levels of psychopathy were more likely to be employed within Realistic, Investigative, Enterprising and Conventional roles. When comparing Social and Realistic roles, more Egotistical individuals were likely to be employed within Realistic roles. When comparing those employed in Social roles to Investigative, Enterprising and Conventional roles, individuals with higher levels of Antisocialism were more likely to be employed within the latter three occupations than within Social roles. This suggests that individuals with psychopathy do gravitate towards certain career paths. Social roles where job incumbents are required to be caring and interact with others to a large extent appear to be unattractive to individuals with high levels of psychopathy. Social roles are also associated with lower monetary rewards and are generally less prestigious (Henley, 2001). These individuals instead seek out occupations where there are higher levels of risk, power and reward. Roles in the Realistic category include those which include high levels of risk e.g. fighter pilot, fireman etc., (Cohen, Meir, Segal & Amar, 2003). Investigative careers hold the highest level of prestige and ranking. Enterprising roles include management positions where power is wielded over subordinates and sales roles, where customers can be manipulated (ACT, 2009). Conventional roles include those within the finance industry, which include some of the most financially lucrative positive available (Babiak & Hare, 2006). The above suggests that individuals with higher levels of psychopathy may be seeking to satisfy their self-centred natures by selecting careers which provide them with high levels of reward in one way or another. Alternatively, these individuals may select roles where their traits can be accepted. The importance of Antisocialism in predicting occupation may be testament to the importance of finding a career which ‘fits’ such traits. Antisocialism is generally associated with negative outcomes in the workplace (Ettner, MacLean & French, 2010). Therefore, finding environments tolerant of antisocial tendencies may be a priority for individuals with high levels of these traits. The results suggest that Enterprising, Investigative and Conventional work environments may be tolerant of Antisocialism in employees and Realistic environments tolerant of Egotism. Academically, the results show that there is value in studying ‘dark-side’ characteristics in organisations. Individuals with higher levels of psychopathic traits, do not appear to randomly enter employment. Instead, they appear to gravitate to careers which meet their needs and/or tolerate their traits. It is important to further explore what industries and positions are particularly attractive to individuals with higher levels of psychopathy and what makes them attractive to these individuals. Such knowledge is important for practitioners to be able to advise organisations as to the likely level of risk they face of employing organisational psychopaths and to enable organisations which are particularly attractive to highly psychopathic employees to design selection systems which detect undesirable traits in candidates. Furthermore, organisations can examine their culture to assess whether traits such as antisocialism are tolerated (or even rewarded) and what the implications of this are.

Credible or not : A study on the factors influencing consumers' credibility assessment of product placements on Instagram

Background: To align with the new trend of using social media in the marketing mix, product placement has been adapted to social media platforms as one strategy to create attention. Especially on Instagram, product placements have gained popularity among companies. While scholars have focused on measuring the effectiveness of the strategy, suggesting that credibility is one component necessary for success, a gap in the research is illuminated when focusing on what makes a product placement on Instagram credible. Previous studies regarding credibility and its relation to traditional media have concluded that there are some factors essential in consumers’ credibility evaluation process. Since social media differs from traditional media, there was a need to investigate the applicability of credibility to the social media platform Instagram. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis was to examine key factors of product placement on Instagram that influence credibility. Method: To meet the purpose of this thesis a study with a mixed method research design was conducted. The qualitative data was collected through semi-structured interviews with the intention to discover how consumers evaluate credibility. The scales and items developed from the findings of the qualitative study were tested using a questionnaire to identify which factors that have the most influence on consumers’ credibility assessment. Conclusions: The overall findings indicate that consumers evaluate credibility based upon source, message and receiver characteristics. The empirical evidence suggests that the Expertise of influencer, Professionalism of picture, Trustworthiness of influencer, Connection to influencer and Causes of irritation are the factors that have the most influence on consumers’ credibility assessment of product placement on Instagram. The findings further implies that it is not only the factor itself that influence, credibility can additionally be transferred from one factor to another.

Influence of pharmacotherapy complexity on compliance with the therapeutic objectives for HIV+ patients on antiretroviral treatment concomitant with therapy for dyslipidemia: INCOFAR Project

Objectives: To analyze the relationship between pharmacotherapeutical complexity and compliance of therapeutic objectives in HIV+ patients on antiretroviral treatment and concomitant dyslipidemia therapy. Materials and methods: A retrospective observational study including HIV patients on stable antiretroviral treatment during the past 6 months, and dyslipidemia treatment between January and December, 2013. The complexity index was calculated with the tool developed by McDonald et al. Other variables analyzed were: age, gender, risk factor of HIV, smoking, alcoholism and drugs, psychiatric disorders, adherence to antiretroviral treatment and lipid lowering drugs, and clinical parameters (HIV viral load, CD4 count, plasma levels of total cholesterol, LDL, HDL, and triglycerides). In order to determine the predictive factors associated with the compliance of therapeutic objectives, univariate analysis was conducted through logistical regression, followed by a multivariate analysis. Results: The study included 89 patients; 56.8% of them met the therapeutic objectives for dyslipidemia. The complexity index was significantly higher (p = 0.02) in those patients who did not reach the objective values (median 51.8 vs. 38.9). Adherence to lipid lowering treatment was significantly associated with compliance of the therapeutic objectives established for dyslipidemia treatment. A 67.0% of patients met the objectives for their antiretroviral treatment; however, the complexity index was not significantly higher (p = 0.06) in those patients who did not meet said objectives. Conclusions: Pharmacotherapeutical complexity represents a key factor in terms of achieving health objectives in HIV+ patients on treatment for dyslipidemia.

THE RELATIVE SIGNIFICANCE OF SYNTACTIC KNOWLEDGE AND VOCABULARY KNOWLEDGE IN SECOND LANGUAGE LISTENING COMPREHENSION

The main purpose of the current study was to examine the role of vocabulary knowledge (VK) and syntactic knowledge (SK) in L2 listening comprehension, as well as their relative significance. Unlike previous studies, the current project employed assessment tasks to measure aural and proceduralized VK and SK. In terms of VK, to avoid under-representing the construct, measures of both breadth (VB) and depth (VD) were included. Additionally, the current study examined the role of VK and SK by accounting for individual differences in two important cognitive factors in L2 listening: metacognitive knowledge (MK) and working memory (WM). Also, to explore the role of VK and SK more fully, the current study accounted for the negative impact of anxiety on WM and L2 listening. The study was carried out in an English as a Foreign Language (EFL) context, and participants were 263 Iranian learners at a wide range of English proficiency from lower-intermediate to advanced. Participants took a battery of ten linguistic, cognitive and affective measures. Then, the collected data were subjected to several preliminary analyses, but structural equation modeling (SEM) was then used as the primary analysis method to answer the study research questions. Results of the preliminary analyses revealed that MK and WM were significant predictors of L2 listening ability; thus, they were kept in the main SEM analyses. The significant role of WM was only observed when the negative effect of anxiety on WM was accounted for. Preliminary analyses also showed that VB and VD were not distinct measures of VK. However, the results also showed that if VB and VD were considered separate, VD was a better predictor of L2 listening success. The main analyses of the current study revealed a significant role for both VK and SK in explaining success in L2 listening comprehension, which differs from findings from previous empirical studies. However, SEM analysis did not reveal a statistically significant difference in terms of the predictive power of the two linguistic factors. Descriptive results of the SEM analysis, along with results from regression analysis, indicated to a more significant role for VK.

An investigation of the clinical utility of preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing in patients undergoing major pancreatic surgery

Pancreaticoduodenectomy with or without adjuvant chemotherapy remains the only modality of possible cure in patients with cancer involving the head of the pancreas and the periampullary region. While mortality rates after pancreaticoduodenectomy have improved considerably over the course of the last century, morbidity remains high. Patient selection is of paramount importance in ensuring that major surgery is offered to individuals who will most benefit from a pancreaticoduodenectomy. Moreover, identifying preoperative risk factors provides potential targets for prehabilitation and optimisation of the patient's physiology before undertaking surgery. In addition to this, early identification of patients who are likely to develop postoperative complications allows for better allocation of critical care resources and more aggressive management high risk patients. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing is becoming an increasingly popular tool in the preoperative risk assessment of the surgical patient. However, very little work has been done to investigate the role of cardiopulmonary exercise testing in predicting complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy. The impact of jaundice, systemic inflammation and other preoperative clinicopathological characteristics on cardiopulmonary exercise physiology has not been studied in detail before in this cohort of patients. The overall aim of the thesis was to examine the relationships between preoperative clinico-pathological characteristics including cardiopulmonary exercise physiology, obstructive jaundice, body composition and systemic inflammation and complications and the post-surgical systemic inflammatory response in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy. Chapter 1 reviews the existing literature on preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing, the impact of obstructive jaundice, perioperative systemic inflammation and the importance of body composition in determining outcomes in patients undergoing major surgery with particular reference to pancreatic surgery. Chapter 2 reports on the role of cardiopulmonary exercise testing in predicting postoperative complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy. The results demonstrate that patients with V˙O2AT less than 10 ml/kg/min are more likely to develop a postoperative pancreatic fistula, stay longer in hospital and less likely to receive adjuvant therapy. These results emphasise the importance of aerobic fitness to recover from the operative stress of major surgery without significant morbidity. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing may prove useful in selecting patients for intensive prehabilitation programmes as well as for other optimisation measures to prepare them for major surgery. Chapter 3 evaluates the relationship between cardiopulmonary exercise physiology and other clinicopathological characteristics of the patient. A detailed analysis of cardiopulmonary exercise test parameters in jaundiced versus non-jaundiced patients demonstrates that obstructive jaundice does not impair cardiopulmonary exercise physiology. This further supports emerging evidence in contemporary literature that jaundiced patients can proceed directly to surgery without preoperative biliary drainage. The results of this study also show an interesting inverse relationship between body mass index and anaerobic threshold which is analysed in more detail in Chapter 4. Chapter 4 examines the relationship between preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise physiology and body composition in depth. All parameters measured at cardiopulmonary exercise test are compared against body composition and body mass index. The results of this chapter report that the current method of reporting V˙O2, both at peak exercise and anaerobic threshold, is biased against obese subjects and advises caution in the interpretation of cardiopulmonary exercise test results in patients with a high BMI. This is particularly important as current evidence in literature suggests that postoperative outcomes in obese subjects are comparable to non-obese subjects while cardiopulmonary exercise test results are also abnormally low in this very same cohort of patients. Chapter 5 analyses the relationship between preoperative clinico-pathological characteristics including systemic inflammation and the magnitude of the postoperative systemic inflammatory response. Obstructive jaundice appears to have an immunosuppressive effect while elevated preoperative CRP and hypoalbuminemia appear to have opposite effects with hypoalbuminemia resulting in a lower response while elevated CRP in the absence of hypoalbuminemia resulted in a greater postoperative systemic inflammatory response. Chapter 6 evaluates the role of the early postoperative systemic inflammatory response in predicting complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy and aims to establish clinically relevant thresholds for C-Reactive Protein for the prediction of complications. The results of this chapter demonstrate that CRP levels as early as the second postoperative day are associated with complications. While post-operative CRP was useful in the prediction of infective complications, this was the case only in patients who did not develop a post-operative pancreatic fistula. The predictive ability of inflammatory markers for infectious complications was blunted in patients with a pancreatic fistula. Chapter 7 summarises the findings of this thesis, their place in current literature and future directions. The results of this thesis add to the current knowledge regarding the complex pathophysiological abnormalities in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy, with specific emphasis on the interaction between cardiopulmonary exercise physiology, obstructive jaundice, systemic inflammation and postoperative outcomes. The work presented in this thesis lays the foundations for further studies aimed at improving outcomes after pancreaticoduodenectomy through the development of individualised, goal-directed therapies that are initiated well before this morbid yet necessary operation is performed.

Competitive Representative Claimsmaking: Party Politicians and Institutional Factors in the Case of EU Budget Negotiations

This study provides an empirical comparative case study of representative claims-making in EU budget negotiations. Two questions are addressed in this paper. First, the paper asks what the role of elected or appointed partisan politicians is in comparison to other representatives. This question is relevant given the reported increasing importance of non-elected representatives. Secondly, the paper asks what the influence of institutional factors is on the practice of representative claims-making. As representative claims-making unfolds in the public sphere, the institutional factors of the public sphere may affect both the claimants it provides a platform for as well as constituencies represented. The paper finds that politicians continue to perform a crucial role in representation, both with regards to their prominence in the public sphere and with regards to the plurality of constituencies represented in their claims. Although institutional factors clearly affect claimants, there are much less pronounced – though noticeable – differences in the constituencies represented in different public spheres. The overall picture is one of a highly plural representative space in which multiple claimants compete with each other to get their message across. In doing so, claimants address the interests of multiple constituencies. It may well be the inherent competition among claimants, fostered by institutional factors, that ensures the plurality of the EU representative space.

Forecasting exchange rates in the presence of instabilities

Many exchange rate papers articulate the view that instabilities constitute a major impediment to exchange rate predictability. In this thesis we implement Bayesian and other techniques to account for such instabilities, and examine some of the main obstacles to exchange rate models' predictive ability. We first consider in Chapter 2 a time-varying parameter model in which fluctuations in exchange rates are related to short-term nominal interest rates ensuing from monetary policy rules, such as Taylor rules. Unlike the existing exchange rate studies, the parameters of our Taylor rules are allowed to change over time, in light of the widespread evidence of shifts in fundamentals - for example in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Focusing on quarterly data frequency from the crisis, we detect forecast improvements upon a random walk (RW) benchmark for at least half, and for as many as seven out of 10, of the currencies considered. Results are stronger when we allow the time-varying parameters of the Taylor rules to differ between countries. In Chapter 3 we look closely at the role of time-variation in parameters and other sources of uncertainty in hindering exchange rate models' predictive power. We apply a Bayesian setup that incorporates the notion that the relevant set of exchange rate determinants and their corresponding coefficients, change over time. Using statistical and economic measures of performance, we first find that predictive models which allow for sudden, rather than smooth, changes in the coefficients yield significant forecast improvements and economic gains at horizons beyond 1-month. At shorter horizons, however, our methods fail to forecast better than the RW. And we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients variability to incorporate in the models, as the main factors obstructing predictive ability. Chapter 4 focus on the problem of the time-varying predictive ability of economic fundamentals for exchange rates. It uses bootstrap-based methods to uncover the time-specific conditioning information for predicting fluctuations in exchange rates. Employing several metrics for statistical and economic evaluation of forecasting performance, we find that our approach based on pre-selecting and validating fundamentals across bootstrap replications generates more accurate forecasts than the RW. The approach, known as bumping, robustly reveals parsimonious models with out-of-sample predictive power at 1-month horizon; and outperforms alternative methods, including Bayesian, bagging, and standard forecast combinations. Chapter 5 exploits the predictive content of daily commodity prices for monthly commodity-currency exchange rates. It builds on the idea that the effect of daily commodity price fluctuations on commodity currencies is short-lived, and therefore harder to pin down at low frequencies. Using MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, and Bayesian estimation methods to account for time-variation in predictive ability, the chapter demonstrates the usefulness of suitably exploiting such short-lived effects in improving exchange rate forecasts. It further shows that the usual low-frequency predictors, such as money supplies and interest rates differentials, typically receive little support from the data at monthly frequency, whereas MIDAS models featuring daily commodity prices are highly likely. The chapter also introduces the random walk Metropolis-Hastings technique as a new tool to estimate MIDAS regressions.

Health-related quality of life and determinant factors in celiac disease: a population-based analysis of adult patients in Spain

Background: Celiac disease (CD) has a negative impact on the health-related quality of life (HRQL) of affected patients. Although HRQL and its determinants have been examined in Spanish CD patients specifically recruited in hospital settings, these aspects of CD have not been assessed among the general Spanish population. Methods: An observational, cross-sectional study of a non-randomized, representative sample of adult celiac patients throughout all of Spain's Autonomous Regions. Subjects were recruited through celiac patient associations. A Spanish version of the self-administered Celiac Disease-Quality of Life (CD-QOL) questionnaire was used. Determinant factors of HRQL were assessed with the aid of multivariate analysis to control for confounding factors. Results: We analyzed the responses provided by 1,230 patients, 1,092 (89.2%) of whom were women. The overall mean value for the CD-QOL index was 56.3 ± 18.27 points. The dimension that obtained the most points was dysphoria, with 81.3 ± 19.56 points, followed by limitations with 52.3 ± 23.43 points; health problems, with 51.6 ± 26.08 points, and inadequate treatment, with 36.1 ± 21.18 points. Patient age and sex, along with time to diagnosis, and length of time on a gluten-free diet were all independent determinant factors of certain dimensions of HRQL: women aged 31 to 40 expressed poorer HRQL while time to diagnosis and length of time on a gluten-free diet were determinant factors for better HRQL scores. Conclusions: The HRQL level of adult Spanish celiac subjects is moderate, improving with the length of time patients remain on a gluten-free diet.