941 resultados para Predictive


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RESUMO - A preocupação com os conhecimentos, atitudes, crenças e práticas, no que concerne à utilização de radiações ionizantes para fins de diagnóstico, e a sensibilização de todos os agentes envolvidos, médicos, técnicos, físicos, utentes e responsáveis pela Saúde Publica, relativamente aos níveis de radiação emitida nos exames de Tomografia Computorizada (TC), assume particular importância no domínio da Saúde Pública, na medida em que é necessário influenciar o desenvolvimento de práticas que promovam, auditem e garantam a prestação do controlo da qualidade radiológica e dosimétrica nos serviços de Radiologia a nível Nacional. Para tal, e no âmbito da publicação de estudos já realizados ao nível da União Europeia, ―Orientações Europeias dos Critérios de Qualidade para a Tomografia Computorizada (1999) ‖, é proposto estabelecer orientações na realização de estudos que permitam, numa primeira fase, estabelecer a comparação com os resultados obtidos pelos mecanismos de Controlo da Qualidade (CQ), analisar e proceder aos ajustes (se necessário) e, numa segunda fase, implementar uma moldura sistemática de avaliação periódica dos níveis de dose de radiação por exame TC e que permita a monitorização dos dados. Nesse sentido, propõe-se a realização de um Estudo Nacional que envolva a rede hospitalar pública, privada e universitária, partindo da metodologia utilizada em estudos prévios noutros países da Europa, como seja, selecção do equipamento de TC existente na Instituição Hospitalar, onde serão reunidas informações através do preenchimento de questionários relativos ao equipamento a utilizar. Serão recolhidos dados relativos ao utente, ao equipamento e parâmetros de aquisição de imagem, que permitam identificar os níveis de referência de diagnóstico (NRD) em TC, na realidade Portuguesa. Foi efectuado um estudo piloto numa instituição EPE e os valores obtidos não são significativos, nem podem assumir valor preditivo dado o reduzido tamanho da amostra. Apesar disso, sugerem a existência de parâmetros que podem ser alterados e com isso podem fazer variar a dose de radiação utilizada. ENSP/UNL Maria de Fátima Vaz de Carvalho 5 Espera-se obter com este estudo, como foi referido, a base do estabelecimento dos NRD em TC em Portugal. ----------------- ABSTRACT - The purpose of this study, in an empirical point of view, emerges from concern with the knowledge, attitudes, beliefs and practices regarding the use of ionizing radiation for diagnostic purposes and awareness of all actors involved, medical physical, technical, and responsible public health for the development of practices that promote, audited and ensure the provision of radiological quality control and dosing in radiology service at national level. In view of the complexity and characteristics involved in relation to ionizing radiation, all assume their part in protecting the physical integrity of each user and a global perspective, to ensure the safeguarding of public health, while global and globalizing factor. To this end, and in the context of the publication of studies already carried out at European Union level, "European guidelines for quality criteria for computed tomography", it is proposed to establish guidelines in conducting studies to initially establish the comparison with the results obtained by QC and make adjustments if necessary, and subsequently implement a systematic periodic assessment frame that allows monitoring of data. Accordingly, it is proposed to conduct a national study involving the public network, private and University hospitals, that extends from the methodology used in previous studies in other countries of Europe, as is, selection of equipment of existing CT in Hospital Institution, where information will be gathered by filling out questionnaires concerning the equipment to be used. Data will be collected for the wearer, equipment and parameters of image acquisition, identifying diagnostic reference levels (NRD) in CT in Portuguese fact. A pilot study was carried out in an institution EPE and the values obtained are not significant, nor can they take predictive value given the small sample size. Despite this, suggest the existence of parameters that can be changed and this can vary the dose of radiation used It is hoped to get with this study, as mentioned, the basis of the establishment of NRD in CT in Portugal.

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Background: A new method for determining serum specific IgE (IMMULITE“ 2000 3gAllergy) has recently become available. Objective: To evaluate the clinical performance of IMMULITE 2000 in the diagnosis of cow’s milk allergy compared with that of UniCAP“. Additionally, we verified the behavior of both methods at two diagnostic decision points proposed by other authors. Methods: The study population consisted of 31 children with cow’s milk allergy (group A) and a control group of 19 atopic children without food allergy(group B). A blood sample from each child was tested using both methods and the results were compared. Results: In group A, the values for cow’s milk IgE ranged from 0.35 kU/L (the lowest common detection limit) to above 100 kU/L. In group B, the values were less than 1.1 kU/L for IMMULITE 2000 and less than 1.6 kU/L for UniCAP. An agreement of 90 % in IgE classes was obtained. Both methods demonstrated exactly the same diagnostic performance(sensitivity: 100 %; specificity: 78.9 %; negative predictive value: 100%; positive predictive value: 84.6%;efficiency: 90.2 %). The evaluation of the two methods at the two different decision points proposed in the literature showed a better positive predictive value with UniCAP, but we obtained equivalent performance with IMMULITE 2000 by choosing higher cutoff values. Conclusions: We conclude that IMMULITE 2000 is as effective as UniCAP in the diagnosis of cow’s milk allergy. Both methods can be used to obtain site-specific decision points that are population, age and disease dependent.

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The present study was designed to further assess the validity of the cytological description of morphological lesions said to be related to Papillomavirus (HPV) infections in senior women. The casuistic comprised 196 cervical smears from a group of women with no clinical or morphological evidence of neoplasia, collected simultaneously with samples submitted to detection of HPV DNA by PCR in a previous study. Three experienced cytologists studied each slide in two different conditions, with an interval of 20 months between them. The first approach was performed under routine laboratory standards, whereas the second was guided by a list of 16 well-defined parameters indicative of HPV-related cytological lesions. When suspicious cases of HPV-related alterations were grouped with positive cases, they showed on average: sensitivity of 25.5%, specificity of 84.4% and positive predictive value (PPV) of 26.8%. When suspicious cases were grouped with negative cases, sensitivity decreased, whereas specificity and PPV increased, as expected. In the second reading, which followed a "guide-list", a decrease in sensitivity was observed, contrasting with a sharp increase of positive predictive value. Among the 16 cytomorphological criteria tested, "koilocytosis", "mild koilocytosis" and "condylomatous parabasal cells" yielded the best predictive value for HPV DNA detection by PCR. In conclusion, despite the low sensitivity, cytopathologic assessment of cervico-vaginal smears leads to a highly specific diagnosis of HPV infection in menopausal women, with PPV of 91.0% when directed by a guide-list of well-defined morphologic criteria.

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The aim of the present study was to standardize and evaluate dot-Enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (Dot-ELISA), a simple and rapid test for the detection of cysticercus antibodies in the serum for the diagnosis of neurocysticercosis (NCC). The antigen used in the study was a complete homogenate of Cysticercus cellulosae cysts obtained from infected pigs and dotted on to nitrocellulose membrane. Test sera were collected from the patients of NCC, and control sera from patients with other diseases and healthy students and blood donors of the Jawaharlal Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research (JIPMER) Hospital, Pondicherry, during a study period from 2001 to 2003. Dot-ELISA detected antibodies in 14 of 25 (56%) in clinically suspected cases of NCC, 13 of 23 (56.5%) in CT/MRI proven cases of NCC and 2 of 25 (8%) each in non-cysticercal CNS infection controls and healthy controls. The test showed a sensitivity of 56.25%, specificity of 92%, positive predictive value of 87.09%, and negative predictive value of 70.76%. Results of the present study shows that the Dot-ELISA as a simple test can be used in the field or poorly equipped laboratories for diagnosis of NCC .

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BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome (MS) is associated with increased incidence of diabetes and atherosclerotic complications. The new definition of the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) increases the population with this entity, compared to the NCEP ATP III definition. OBJECTIVES: To study the prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) in patients with and without MS, according to the NCEP ATP III and IDF definitions, and the predictive ability of carotid IMT for CAD. METHODS: We studied 270 consecutive patients admitted for elective coronary angiography due to suspicion of CAD. All patients underwent ultrasound study of the carotid arteries to measure IMT (the highest value between the right and left common carotid arteries was used in the analysis). Coronary stenosis of > or =70% (or 50% for the left main coronary artery) was considered significant. RESULTS: By the ATP III definition, 14% of the patients had MS, and these patients had a higher prevalence of CAD (87% vs. 63%, p = 0.004), but no significant difference was found for carotid IMT (1.03 +/- 0.36 mm vs. 0.95 +/- 0.35 mm, p=NS). With the IDF definition, 61% of the patients had MS; this group was slightly older and included more women. There were no differences in terms of CAD (68% vs. 63%) or carotid IMT (0.97 +/- 0.34 vs. 0.96 +/- 0.39 mm). On multivariate analysis, the ATP III definition of MS predicts CAD (OR 4.76, 95% CI 1.71-13.25, p = 0.003), but the IDF definition does not (OR 1.29, 95% CI 0.74-2.27, p = 0.37). On ROC curve analysis, an IMT of > or = 0.95 mm predicts CAD (AUC 0.66, p < 0.001), with a sensitivity of 52% and specificity of 75%. CONCLUSIONS: The new IDF definition increases the population with MS, decreasing the capacity to predict the presence of CAD. In our population, neither the ATP III nor the IDF definition showed differences in terms of carotid IMT. Carotid IMT can predict CAD, but with only modest sensitivity.

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The purpose of the study was to estimate the prevalence of IgG antibodies against varicella zoster virus (VZV) in the two most populated indigenous ethnic groups from Xingu Indigenous National Park, in Brazil, prior to the introduction of vaccination against the disease, and to determine the positive and the negative predictive values of a history of varicella infection. In 2001, 589 inhabitants of two Kuikuro villages and three Kaiabi villages were evaluated and provided information concerning previous varicella infection. An indirect immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect IgG anti-VZV antibodies was performed in 224 blood samples - volunteer selection had no interference of anamnesis. IgG prevalence was 80.8% (95% Confidence Interval: 76% - 86%). The seroepidemiology of varicella in Xingu National Park prior to varicella vaccine introduction was comparable to the Brazilian national seroprevalence described in the literature, and so were the positive (98%) and the negative predictive value (41%) of the referred history.

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INTRODUCTION: The significant risk of sudden arrhythmic death in patients with congestive heart failure and electromechanical ventricular dyssynchrony has led to increased use of combined cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator (CRT-D) devices. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the echocardiographic variables in patients undergoing CRT-D that predict the occurrence of appropriate therapies (AT) for ventricular tachyarrhythmia. METHODS: We analyzed 38 consecutive patients (mean age 60 +/- 12 years, 63% male) with echocardiographic evaluation before and 6 months after CRT-D implantation. Patients with AT were identified in a mean follow-up of 471 +/- 323 days. A standard echocardiographic study was performed including tissue Doppler imaging (TDI). Responders were defined as patients with improvement in NYHA class of < or = 1 in the first six months, and reverse remodeling as a decrease in left ventricular end-systolic volume of < or = 15% and/or an increase in left ventricular ejection fraction of > 25%. RESULTS: The responder rate was 74%, and the reverse remodeling rate was 55%. AT occurred in 21% of patients, who presented with greater left ventricular end-diastolic internal diameter (LVEDD) before implantation (86 +/- 8 vs. 76 +/- 11 mm, p = 0.03) and at 6 months (81 +/- 8 vs. 72 +/- 14 mm, p = 0.08), and increased left ventricular end-systolic internal diameter (66 +/- 14 vs. 56 +/- 14 mm, p = 0.03) and lower ejection fraction (24 +/- 6 vs. 34 +/- 14%, p = 0.08) at 6 months. In the group with AT, the responder rate was lower (38 vs. 83%, p = 0.03), without significant differences in reverse remodeling (38% for the AT group vs. 60%, p = 0.426) or in the other variables. By univariate analysis, predictors of AT were LVEDD before implantation and E' after implantation. Age, gender, ischemic etiology, use of antiarrhythmic drugs, reverse remodeling and the other echocardiographic parameters did not predict AT. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, both LVEDD before implantation (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.04-1.48, p = 0.019) and postimplantation E' (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.09-0.76, p = 0.014) remained as independent predictors of AT. CONCLUSIONS: In patients undergoing CRT-D, episodes of ventricular tachyarrhythmia occur with high incidence, independently of echocardiographic response, with LVEDD before implantation and E' after implantation as the only independent predictors of AT in the medium-term. These results highlight the importance of combined devices with defibrillation capability.

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Anti-Toxoplasma IgG-avidity was determined in 168 serum samples from IgG- and IgM-positive pregnant women at various times during pregnancy, in order to evaluate the predictive value for risk of mother-to-child transmission in a single sample, taking the limitations of conventional serology into account. The neonatal IgM was considered the serologic marker of transmission. Fluorometric tests for IgG, IgM (immunocapture) and IgG-avidity were performed. Fifty-one of the 128 pregnant women tested gave birth in the hospital and neonatal IgM was obtained. The results showed 32 (62.75%) pregnant women having high avidity, IgM indexes between 0.6 and 2.4, and no infected newborn. Nineteen (37.25%) had low or inconclusive avidity, IgM indexes between 0.6 and 11.9, and five infected newborns and one stillbirth. In two infected newborns and the stillbirth maternal IgM indexes were low and in one infected newborn the only maternal parameter that suggested fetal risk was IgG-avidity. In the present study, IgG-avidity performed in single samples from positive IgM pregnant women helped to determine the risk of transmission at any time during pregnancy, especially when the indexes of the two tests were analysed with respect to gestational age. This model may be less expensive in developing countries where there is a high prevalence of infection than the follow-up of susceptible mothers until childbirth with monthly serology, and it creates a new perspective for the diagnosis of congenital toxoplasmosis.

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In this paper we introduce a formation control loop that maximizes the performance of the cooperative perception of a tracked target by a team of mobile robots, while maintaining the team in formation, with a dynamically adjustable geometry which is a function of the quality of the target perception by the team. In the formation control loop, the controller module is a distributed non-linear model predictive controller and the estimator module fuses local estimates of the target state, obtained by a particle filter at each robot. The two modules and their integration are described in detail, including a real-time database associated to a wireless communication protocol that facilitates the exchange of state data while reducing collisions among team members. Simulation and real robot results for indoor and outdoor teams of different robots are presented. The results highlight how our method successfully enables a team of homogeneous robots to minimize the total uncertainty of the tracked target cooperative estimate while complying with performance criteria such as keeping a pre-set distance between the teammates and the target, avoiding collisions with teammates and/or surrounding obstacles.

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BACKGROUND: To optimize the noninvasive evaluation of bone remodeling, we evaluated, besides routine serum markers, serum levels of several cytokines involved in bone turnover. METHODS: A transiliac bone biopsy was performed in 47 hemodialysis patients. Serum levels of intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH; 1-84), total alkaline phosphatases (tAP), calcium, phosphate and aluminum (Al) were measured. Circulating levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra) and soluble IL-6 receptor (sIL-6r) were determined using ELISA. Circulating IL-1beta, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12p70 and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) were simultaneously quantified by flow cytometric immunoassay. RESULTS: Patients with low/normal bone formation rate (L/N-BFR) had significantly lower serum iPTH (p<0.001) and tAP (p<0.008) and significantly higher Al (p<0.025) than patients with high BFR. Serum calcium and phosphorus, however, did not differ (p=NS). An iPTH >300 pg/mL in association with tAP >120 U/L showed low sensitivity (58.8%) and low negative predictive value (44.0%) for the diagnosis of high BFR disease. An iPTH <300 pg/mL in association with normal or low tAP, <120 U/L, was associated with low sensitivity (66.7%) but high specificity (97.1%) for the diagnosis of L/N-BFR. Serum IL-1, IL-6, IL-12p70 and TNF-alpha were positively correlated with BFR, serum IL1-Ra and IL-10 with bone area, and by multiple regression analysis, tAP and IL-6 were independently predictive of BFR. CONCLUSIONS: Significant associations were found between several circulating cytokines and bone histomorphometry in dialysis patients. The usefulness of these determinations in the noninvasive evaluation of bone remodeling needs to be confirmed in larger dialysis populations.

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INTRODUCTION: A growing body of evidence shows the prognostic value of oxygen uptake efficiency slope (OUES), a cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) parameter derived from the logarithmic relationship between O(2) consumption (VO(2)) and minute ventilation (VE) in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic value of a new CPET parameter - peak oxygen uptake efficiency (POUE) - and to compare it with OUES in patients with CHF. METHODS: We prospectively studied 206 consecutive patients with stable CHF due to dilated cardiomyopathy - 153 male, aged 53.3±13.0 years, 35.4% of ischemic etiology, left ventricular ejection fraction 27.7±8.0%, 81.1% in sinus rhythm, 97.1% receiving ACE-Is or ARBs, 78.2% beta-blockers and 60.2% spironolactone - who performed a first maximal symptom-limited treadmill CPET, using the modified Bruce protocol. In 33% of patients an cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) or cardiac resynchronization therapy device (CRT-D) was implanted during follow-up. Peak VO(2), percentage of predicted peak VO(2), VE/VCO(2) slope, OUES and POUE were analyzed. OUES was calculated using the formula VO(2) (l/min) = OUES (log(10)VE) + b. POUE was calculated as pVO(2) (l/min) / log(10)peakVE (l/min). Correlation coefficients between the studied parameters were obtained. The prognosis of each variable adjusted for age was evaluated through Cox proportional hazard models and R2 percent (R2%) and V index (V6) were used as measures of the predictive accuracy of events of each of these variables. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves from logistic regression models were used to determine the cut-offs for OUES and POUE. RESULTS: pVO(2): 20.5±5.9; percentage of predicted peak VO(2): 68.6±18.2; VE/VCO(2) slope: 30.6±8.3; OUES: 1.85±0.61; POUE: 0.88±0.27. During a mean follow-up of 33.1±14.8 months, 45 (21.8%) patients died, 10 (4.9%) underwent urgent heart transplantation and in three patients (1.5%) a left ventricular assist device was implanted. All variables proved to be independent predictors of this combined event; however, VE/VCO2 slope was most strongly associated with events (HR 11.14). In this population, POUE was associated with a higher risk of events than OUES (HR 9.61 vs. 7.01), and was also a better predictor of events (R2: 28.91 vs. 22.37). CONCLUSION: POUE was more strongly associated with death, urgent heart transplantation and implantation of a left ventricular assist device and proved to be a better predictor of events than OUES. These results suggest that this new parameter can increase the prognostic value of CPET in patients with CHF.

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Introdução: Nos doentes admitidos com síndrome coronária aguda (SCA), a presença de anemia é um fator predizente de prognóstico. Contudo, os diversos scores de risco após SCA não incluem este fator. Objetivos: Avaliar se a presença de anemia na admissão em doentes com SCA tem valor acrescido relativamente ao score GRACE na predição de mortalidade a curto e médio prazo. Métodos: Entre janeiro 2005 e dezembro 2008, avaliaram-se os doentes admitidos consecutivamente na nossa Unidade de Cuidados Intensivos por SCA e incluídos no registo de SCA do centro. Em todos os doentes foram colhidos dados demográficos, antropométricos, fatores de risco para doença coronária, dados clínicos e laboratoriais da admissão, incluindo hemoglobina. Foram identificados os doentes com anemia (hemoglobina < 12 g/dL nas mulheres e < 13 g/dL nos homens). Os doentes foram divididos em risco baixo, intermédio e alto: < 126, 126-154 e > 154 para o score GRACE, respetivamente. Analisou-se a ocorrência de morte intra-hospitalar, aos 30 dias e ao primeiro ano de seguimento. Resultados: Incluíram-se 1423 doentes, com idade média de 64 ± 13 anos, 69% do sexo masculino,identificando-se a presenc¸a de anemia na admissão em 27,7% dos doentes. Estes doentes eram mais idosos, com predomínio do sexo feminino, mais hipertensos e diabéticos, maior número com história prévia de enfarte, com pior classe de Killip na admissão e score GRACE mais alto. Pelo contrário, eram menos fumadores, com menor apresentação como enfarte com supradesnivelamento ST e receberam menos bloqueadores beta, estatinas e angioplastia coronária. Tiveram também mais complicações hemorrágicas durante o internamento. A mortalidade intra-hospitalar (10 versus 4%), aos 30 dias (12 versus 5%) e ao primeiro ano (15 versus 6%) foram superiores no grupo com anemia (p < 0,001). Na análise bivariada, a presença de anemia é fator predizente de mortalidade intra-hospitalar (OR 2,46, IC 95% 1,57-3,85, p < 0,001), aos 30 dias (OR 2,47, IC 95% 1,65-3,69, p < 0,001) e ao primeiro ano (OR 2,66, IC 95% 1,83-3,86, p < 0,001), não se mantendo, contudo, esta associação após ajuste para outras variáveis. Associando a presença de anemia ao score GRACE, diferencia apenas para a mortalidade ao primeiro ano(com maior mortalidade) os grupos de risco intermédio e alto do score GRACE (6,7 versus 2,3%, p = 0,024; 23,4 versus 15,6%, p = 0,022, respetivamente), com uma tendência para diferenciar a mortalidade aos 30 dias no grupo de risco alto de score (19,6 versus 13,5%, p = 0,056). Conclusão: Os nossos dados confirmam que a anemia é um fator predizente importante de mortalidade a curto e médio prazo após SCA, contudo, não significativo quando ajustado ou incluído no score GRACE. Contudo, a sua combinação com o score GRACE pode melhorar a estratificação de risco, em particular no alto risco.

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To compare sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of self-diagnosis for head lice infestation with visual inspection, we conducted a study in an urban slum in Brazil. Individuals were asked about active head lice infestation (self-diagnosis); we performed visual inspection and thereafter wet combing (gold standard). Of the 175 individuals included, 77 (44%) had an active head lice infestation. For self-diagnosis, sensitivity (80.5%), specificity (91.8%), PPV (88.6%) and NPV (85.7%) were high. Sensitivity of visual inspection was 35.1%. Public health professionals can use self-diagnosis as a diagnostic tool, to estimate accurately prevalence of pediculosis in a community, and to monitor ongoing intervention strategies.

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Human Immunodeficiency Vírus Type 1 and 2 antibodies detection was performed in 457 dried whole blood spots samples (S&S 903). Q-Preven HIV 1+2 was the screening test used. The results were compared with the gold standard serum tests by ELISA (Cobas Core e Axsym HIV1/2 gO) and imunofluorescence was the definitive confirmatory test. The samples were obtained from the Hospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição in Porto Alegre, RS - Brazil, through whole blood transfer to filter paper card and sent to Caxias do Sul, RS - Brazil where the tests were performed. The dried whole blood spot stability was evaluated with two different panels. The first one was composed of five negative and five positive samples stored at room temperature, 4 ºC, -20 ºC and -70 ºC, while the second was composed of two negative and three positive samples stored at 37 ºC (humidity <50%). Each sample was screened every week for six weeks. These measurement results didn't show variation during the study period. The detected sensibility was 100%, specificity was 99.6%, the positive predictive value was 99.5% and negative predictive values were 100%. The results demonstrated high performance characteristics, opening a new perspective of dried whole blood spot utilization in HIV screening diagnosis.

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The integrity of multi-component structures is usually determined by their unions. Adhesive-bonding is often used over traditional methods because of the reduction of stress concentrations, reduced weight penalty, and easy manufacturing. Commercial adhesives range from strong and brittle (e.g., Araldite® AV138) to less strong and ductile (e.g., Araldite® 2015). A new family of polyurethane adhesives combines high strength and ductility (e.g., Sikaforce® 7888). In this work, the performance of the three above-mentioned adhesives was tested in single lap joints with varying values of overlap length (LO). The experimental work carried out is accompanied by a detailed numerical analysis by finite elements, either based on cohesive zone models (CZM) or the extended finite element method (XFEM). This procedure enabled detailing the performance of these predictive techniques applied to bonded joints. Moreover, it was possible to evaluate which family of adhesives is more suited for each joint geometry. CZM revealed to be highly accurate, except for largely ductile adhesives, although this could be circumvented with a different cohesive law. XFEM is not the most suited technique for mixed-mode damage growth, but a rough prediction was achieved.