997 resultados para Population forecasting


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Amoungst the three spiny lobster species in southern Iranian waters, Panulirus homarus is the only commercial species with a total landings of 20-45 tons per year indicating a decrease in both landings and CPIJE in recent years. Fishing has been regulated according to the no. of fisherman and effort, and trap ha's replaced the gillnef since 1994. Fishing is carried out along the rocky shores of Chah-Bahar region through different landing places by local fisherman for a period of about two months. Most of catch is exported mainly frozen. This research was sposored by the Fisheries Research Dept. and aimed to work on the population dynamics and stock assessment in order to stablish a better understandings of the stock and hence a proper management in this region. Sampling was done for. 10 successive months in _5 major landing places from 1994 to 1995 with no sampling during the monsoon period through June to July. Althogethere, 8500 specimen were collected and the biometry was done accordings to the sex, region and month. Average total length, total weight and carapace length was obtained 216mm., 452 gr. and 75mm. respectively. Total length-weight relationship of both sexes was calculated and follows the cubic law. Regression coefficients for both sexes was 2.8231, males 2.9616, total females 2.7490, berried females 2.6611- and non-berried females

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Oreochromis niloticus (the Nile tilapia) and three other ti1apine species: Oreochromis leucostictus, Tilapia zi11ii and T. rendallii were introduced into Lakes Victoria, Kyoga and Nabugabo in 1950s and 1960s. The source and foci of the stockings are given by Welcomme (1966) but the origin of the stocked species was Lake Albert. The Nile tilapia was introduced as a management measure to relieve fishing pressure on the endemic tiapiines and, since it grows to a bigger size, to encourage a return to the use of larger mesh gill nets. Ti1apia zillii was introduced to fill a vacant ,niche of macrophytes which could not be utilised' by the other tilapiines. Tilapia rendallii, and possibly T. leucosticutus could been introduced into these lakes accidently as a consquence of one of the species being tried out for aquaculture. The Nile perch and Nile tilapia have since fully established themselves and presently dominate the commercial fisheries of Lakes Victoria and Kyoga. The original fisheries based on the endemic tilapiines O. escu1entus and o. variabilis have collapsed. It is hypothesized that the ecological and limnological changes that are observed in Lakes Victoria and Kyoga are due to a truncation of the original food webs of the two lakes. Under the changed conditions, O. niloticus to be either playing a stabilizing role or fuelling nutrient turnover in the lakes. Other testable hypotheses point to the possible role of predation by the Nile perch, change in regional climate and hydrology in the lake basins.

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Codends of four different mesh size" were compared during exploratory bottom trawling on Lake Victoria. Small mesh sizes (19 and 38 mm) generally caught greater quantities of fish than large mesh sizes (64 and 76 mm) with haplochromis species responsible for the difference. The differences in catch rates were most pronounced where dense concentration of small haplochromis were found. This was generally in shallow water since the average size of haplochromis tends to increase with depth. Catch rates for species other than haplochromis were fairly similar for the codends tested, although there were indications of lower catches in small mesh coderlds fished through dense haplochromis concentrations. For haplochromis fished with 64 and 38 mm eodends, the estimated 50% retention lengths were 13.6 and 8.0 cm, respectively. The predicted value for the 19 mm codend was 4.5 cm.

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An ecological survey of the fisheries of Lake Baringo, Kenya was carried out between August, 1972 and August, 1973. The bionomics and population structure of T. nilotica is described. Sampling was done with multifilament gillnets of graded mesh sizes from 51 mm to 178 mm in approximately 12.5 mm increments. The Lake was divided into three sampling and ecologically different zones - the south, central and north zones. The size range of T. nilotica of both sexes caught was between 5 and 27 cm (mode 16 cm) with a mean length of 16.07 cm. For all the collections, males dominated (55.3%) and a higher proportion of males were caught in January, August and November. The smallest mature male and female was 9 and 10 cm respectively. Males grow faster and mature at larger sizes than females. 50% of all males and females mature at 17.4 and 16:4 cm respectively. The periods of intense spawning were between August and October and January to April. The Tilapia were feeding best in central and north zones and the feeding intensity was reduced in January. Two endoparasites Contracaecum sp. and Clinostomum sp. were isolated from the Tilapia. The "condition" of the fish was better in the north than in the other two zones.

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Length-frequency data collected from fish landings on Lake Naivasha were used to estimate the growth parameters: total mortality (Z), growth performance index (Ø’), exploitation rate and recruitment pattern in Oreochromis leucostictus. The asymptotic length (L∞) was 38 cm and K 0.48 yr -1 Z was estimated as 3.5 yr -1, M was 0.19 yr -1, F was 2.6 yr -1 and E of 0.74. Recruitment occurs throughout the year, with a peak in January to March, while entry into the fishery occurs at a mean length of 15.9 cm. Existing restriction on the maximum number of gill nets allowed per fishing licence (10 per boat) and a minimum mesh size (10 cm) in the lake are not adhered to. Poaching using illegal mesh size nets as small as 5 cm and use of more than 10 nets per boat are common in the lake.

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The Yunnan snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus bieti), an endangered species in China, has received more protection in theory than in practice. Therefore it is on the very verge of extinction. The population of the species was estimated less than 2,000 individuals spread in 19 distinct groups. It was confirmed that the monkey was confined to the Yunling Mountain System, the area between the Yangtze River (Changjiang, aka Jinshajiang) to the east and the Mekong River (Lancangjiang) to the west. We further concluded that a lowland belt to the east, about 100 km long and 20 - 30 km wide was not suitable habitat for the monkeys, and appeared to serve as the natural ecogeologic barrier for the species. Our results indicated that the southern limit of the distribution was at Longma (26-degrees 14'N), and that the northern limit of the distribution was at Xiaochangdu (29-degrees 20'N). The distribution area of the species was substantially smaller than previously estimated. There were substantial ecological differences between the southern and northern parts of the species range. The monkey was found only in fir-larch forest.

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Chapter 6 A Population Perspective on Mobile Phone Related Tasks M. Bradley, S. Waller, J. Goodman-Deane, l. Hosking, R. Tenneti, PM Langdon and PJ Clarkson 6.1 Introduction For design to be truly inclusive, it needs to take into ...

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Chapter 11 Intrinsic Motivation and Design of ICT for ... Information and Communication Technology (ICT) systems provide an increasingly promising platform with which to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of healthcare, ...

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Forecasting the returns of assets at high frequency is the key challenge for high-frequency algorithmic trading strategies. In this paper, we propose a jump-diffusion model for asset price movements that models price and its trend and allows a momentum strategy to be developed. Conditional on jump times, we derive closed-form transition densities for this model. We show how this allows us to extract a trend from high-frequency finance data by using a Rao-Blackwellized variable rate particle filter to filter incoming price data. Our results show that even in the presence of transaction costs our algorithm can achieve a Sharpe ratio above 1 when applied across a portfolio of 75 futures contracts at high frequency. © 2011 IEEE.

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An object in the peripheral visual field is more difficult to recognize when surrounded by other objects. This phenomenon is called "crowding". Crowding places a fundamental constraint on human vision that limits performance on numerous tasks. It has been suggested that crowding results from spatial feature integration necessary for object recognition. However, in the absence of convincing models, this theory has remained controversial. Here, we present a quantitative and physiologically plausible model for spatial integration of orientation signals, based on the principles of population coding. Using simulations, we demonstrate that this model coherently accounts for fundamental properties of crowding, including critical spacing, "compulsory averaging", and a foveal-peripheral anisotropy. Moreover, we show that the model predicts increased responses to correlated visual stimuli. Altogether, these results suggest that crowding has little immediate bearing on object recognition but is a by-product of a general, elementary integration mechanism in early vision aimed at improving signal quality.

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Successful inclusive product design requires knowledge about the capabilities, needs and aspirations of potential users and should cater for the different scenarios in which people will use products, systems and services. This should include: the individual at home; in the workplace; for businesses, and for products in these contexts. It needs to reflect the development of theory, tools and techniques as research moves on. And it must also to draw in wider psychological, social, and economic considerations in order to gain a more accurate understanding of users' interactions with products and technology. However, recent research suggests that although a number of national disability surveys have been carried out, no such knowledge currently exists as information to support the design of products, systems and services for heterogeneous users. This paper outlines the strategy behind specific inclusive design research that is aimed at creating the foundations for measuring inclusion in product designs. A key outcome of this future research will be specifying and operationalising capability, and psychological, social and economic context measures for inclusive design. This paper proposes a framework for capturing such information, describes an early pilot study, and makes recommendations for better practice.

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Older people often find it difficult to learn to use new technology. Although they may want to adopt it, they can find the learning process challenging and frustrating and subsequently lose motivation. This paper looks at how psychological theories of intrinsic motivation could be applied to make the ICT learning process more engaging for older users and describes an experiment set up to test the applicability of these theories to user interface (UI) design. The results of the experiment confirmed that intrinsic motivation theory is a valid lens through which to look at current ICT design and also uncovered significant gender differences in reaction to different kinds of learning tasks. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

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A recurrent artificial neural network was used for 0-and 7-days-ahead forecasting of daily spring phytoplankton bloom dynamics in Xiangxi Bay of Three-Gorges Reservoir with meteorological, hydrological, and limnological parameters as input variables. Daily data from the depth of 0.5 m was used to train the model, and data from the depth of 2.0 m was used to validate the calibrated model. The trained model achieved reasonable accuracy in predicting the daily dynamics of chlorophyll a both in 0-and 7-days-ahead forecasting. In 0-day-ahead forecasting, the R-2 values of observed and predicted data were 0.85 for training and 0.89 for validating. In 7-days-ahead forecasting, the R-2 values of training and validating were 0.68 and 0.66, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that most ecological relationships between chlorophyll a and input environmental variables in 0-and 7-days-ahead models were reasonable. In the 0-day model, Secchi depth, water temperature, and dissolved silicate were the most important factors influencing the daily dynamics of chlorophyll a. And in 7-days-ahead predicting model, chlorophyll a was sensitive to most environmental variables except water level, DO, and NH3N.

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The population genetic structure of fish parasitic nematode, Camallanus cotti, collected from the Yangtze River, Pearl River and Minjiang River in China was investigated. From these parasites, the similar to 730 bp of the first internal transcribed spacer of ribosomal DNA (ITS1 rDNA) and the 428 bp of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene were sequenced. For the ITS1 rDNA data set, highly significant Fst values and low rates of migration were detected between the Pearl River group and both the Yangtze River (Fst = 0.70, P < 0.00001; Nm = 0.21) and Minjiang River (Fst = 0.73, P < 0.00001; Nm = 0.18) groups, while low Fst value (Fst = 0.018, P > 0.05) and high rate of migration (Nm = 28.42) were found between the Minjiang and the Yangtze rivers. When different host/locality populations (subpopulations) within each river were considered, subpopulations between the Yangtze River and Minjiang River had low Fst values (<= 0.12) and high Nm values (>3.72), while Pearl River subpopulations were significantly different from the Yangtze River and Minjiang River subpopulations (Fst >= 0.59; Nm < 1). The COI gene data set revealed a similar genetic structure. Both phylogenetic analyses and a statistical parsimony network grouped the Pearl River haplotypes into one phylogroup, while the Yangtze River and Minjiang River haplotypes formed a second group. These results suggested that the Yangtze River and Minjiang River subpopulations constituted a single reproductive pool that was distinct from the Pearl River subpopulations. In addition, the present study did not find host-related genetic differentiation occurring in the same drainage. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.

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The numbers of spawning sites for Chinese sturgeon have been drastically reduced since the construction of the Gezhouba Dam across the Yangtze River. This dam has blocked migration of Chinese sturgeon to their historic spawning ground causing a significant decline of the Chinese sturgeon population. We conducted a VORTEX population viability analysis to estimate the sustainability of the population and to quantify the efficiency of current and alternative conservation procedures. The model predicted the observed decline of Chinese sturgeon, resulting from the effect of the Gezhouba Dam. These simulations demonstrated the potential interest of two conservation measures: increasing spawning area and reducing predation on sturgeon eggs. The simulations also demonstrated that the actual restocking program is not sufficient to sustain sturgeon population as the artificial reproduction program induce the loss of more wild mature adults that the recruitment expected by the artificial reproduction.