Targeted observations of a polar low in the Norwegian sea

A developing polar low is targeted with dropsonde observations to improve the forecast of its landfall. Accurately forecasting a polar low's strength and location remains a challenge; polar lows form over the ocean in poorly observed regions, therefore initial condition errors may contribute significantly to forecast error. The targeted polar low formed in the Norwegian Sea on 3 March 2008, during the Norwegian IPY-THORPEX field campaign. Two flights, six hours apart, released dense networks of dropsondes into a sensitive region covering the polar low and Arctic front to its west. The impact of the targeted observations is assessed using the limited-area Met Office Unified Model and three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation scheme. Forecasts were verified using ECMWF analysis data, which show good agreement with both dropsonde data from a flight through the mature polar low, and 10 m QuikSCAT winds. The impact of the targeted data moved southwards with the polar low as it developed and then hit the Norwegian coast after 24 hours. The results show that the forecast of the polar low is sensitive to the initial conditions; targeted observations from the first flight did not improve the forecast, but those from the second flight clearly improved the forecast polar low position and intensity. However, caution should be applied to attributing the forecast improvement to the assimilation of the targeted observations from a single case-study, especially in this case as the forecast improvement is moderate relative to the spread from an operational ensemble forecast

Enhanced viability of corneal epithelial cells for efficient transport/storage using a structurally-modified calcium alginate hydrogel

Aims: Therapeutic limbal epithelial stem cells could be managed more efficiently if clinically validated batches were transported for ‘on-demand’ use. Materials & methods: In this study, corneal epithelial cell viability in calcium alginate hydrogels was examined under cell culture, ambient and chilled conditions for up to 7 days. Results: Cell viability improved as gel internal pore size increased, and was further enhanced with modification of the gel from a mass to a thin disc. Ambient storage conditions were optimal for supporting cell viability in gel discs. Cell viability in gel discs was significantly enhanced with increases in pore size mediated by hydroxyethyl cellulose. Conclusion: Our novel methodology of controlling alginate gel shape and pore size together provides a more practical and economical alternative to established corneal tissue/cell storage methods.

Upper-ocean heat budget and ocean eddy transport in the south-east Pacific in a high-resolution coupled model

We present an analysis of the oceanic heat advection and its variability in the upper 500 m in the southeastern tropical Pacific (100W–75W, 25S–10S) as simulated by the global coupled model HiGEM, which has one of the highest resolutions currently used in long-term integrations. The simulated climatology represents a temperature advection field arising from transient small-scale (<450 km) features, with structures and transport that appear consistent with estimates based on available observational data for the mooring at 20S, 85W. The transient structures are very persistent (>4 months), and in specific locations they generate an important contribution to the local upper-ocean heat budget, characterised by scales of a few hundred kilometres, and periods of over a year. The contribution from such structures to the local, long-term oceanic heat budget however can be of either sign, or vanishing, depending on the location; and, although there appears some organisation in preferential areas of activity, the average over the entire region is small. While several different mechanisms may be responsible for the temperature advection by transients, we find that a significant, and possibly dominant, component is associated with vortices embedded in the large-scale, climatological salinity gradient associated with the fresh intrusion of mid-latitude intermediate water which penetrates north-westward beneath the tropical thermocline

Performance assessment of a volcanic ash transport model mini-ensemble used for inverse modeling of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

The requirement to forecast volcanic ash concentrations was amplified as a response to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption when ash safety limits for aviation were introduced in the European area. The ability to provide accurate quantitative forecasts relies to a large extent on the source term which is the emissions of ash as a function of time and height. This study presents source term estimations of the ash emissions from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption derived with an inversion algorithm which constrains modeled ash emissions with satellite observations of volcanic ash. The algorithm is tested with input from two different dispersion models, run on three different meteorological input data sets. The results are robust to which dispersion model and meteorological data are used. Modeled ash concentrations are compared quantitatively to independent measurements from three different research aircraft and one surface measurement station. These comparisons show that the models perform reasonably well in simulating the ash concentrations, and simulations using the source term obtained from the inversion are in overall better agreement with the observations (rank correlation = 0.55, Figure of Merit in Time (FMT) = 25–46%) than simulations using simplified source terms (rank correlation = 0.21, FMT = 20–35%). The vertical structures of the modeled ash clouds mostly agree with lidar observations, and the modeled ash particle size distributions agree reasonably well with observed size distributions. There are occasionally large differences between simulations but the model mean usually outperforms any individual model. The results emphasize the benefits of using an ensemble-based forecast for improved quantification of uncertainties in future ash crises.

Intracellular or intercellular localization of the polar pathway of penetration across stratum corneum

A pharmacokinetic hypothesis of stratum corneum with two parallel pathways, lipophilic and porous hydrophilic, is not well documented yet. Still questionable is the localization of the pores, and the present experiments were designed to elucidate the contribution of extracellular lipids and intracellular keratin to the structure of this pathway. Percutaneous penetration of baclofen, a model zwitterion, was studied in vitro using human cadaver skin. Aqueous or ethanolic saturated solutions of the drug (Cs = 4.6 and 0.4 mg/ mL, respectively) were applied on the skin that was pretreated with: methanol/chloroform (Me/Ch) or acetone-chloroform (Ac/Ch) (1:1) mixtures, or with these solvents followed by 0.2% solution of sodium lauryl sulfate (SLS). As controls, baclofen penetration through the intact full-thickness skin was determined, and the fluxes were 0.18 ±0.08 and 0.14 ±0.07 µg/cm2/h for aqueous and ethanolic solutions, respectively. When Me/Ch was used for 1 h, an expected increase of the penetration was observed, but the lag time, Tlag, was still nearly 20 h. When the less polar mixture, Ac/Ch, was used, no flux enhancement was observed, and with ethanol as the vehicle, decreased penetration was even noted. No effect on baclofen penetration was observed when SLS was used for 1 h after delipidization of the skin was done with either the Me/Ch or Ac/Ch mixture. The results suggest that the polar pathway may be located intercellularly and comprises aqueous regions surrounded by polar lipids, which create the walls of such microchannels.

The nature of Arctic polar vortices in chemistry-climate models

The structure of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex in three chemistry–climate models (CCMs) taken from the CCMVal-2 intercomparison is examined using zonal mean and geometric-based methods. The geometric methods are employed by taking 2D moments of potential vorticity fields that are representative of the polar vortices in each of the models. This allows the vortex area, centroid location and ellipticity to be determined, as well as a measure of vortex filamentation. The first part of the study uses these diagnostics to examine how well the mean state, variability and extreme variability of the polar vortices are represented in CCMs compared to ERA-40 reanalysis data, and in particular for the UMUKCA-METO, NIWA-SOCOL and CCSR/NIES models. The second part of the study assesses how the vortices are predicted to change in terms of the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings and their general structure over the period 1960–2100. In general, it is found that the vortices are climatologically too far poleward in the CCMs and produce too few large-scale filamentation events. Only a small increase is observed in the frequency of sudden stratospheric warming events from the mean of the CCMVal-2 models, but the distribution of extreme variability throughout the winter period is shown to change towards the end of the twentyfirst century.

Identification of genetic and phenotypic differences associated with prevalent and non-prevalent Salmonella Enteritidis phage types: analysis of variation in amino acid transport

In this study, differences at the genetic level of 37 Salmonella Enteritidis strains from five phage types (PTs) were compared using comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) to assess differences between PTs. There were approximately 400 genes that differentiated prevalent (4, 6, 8 and 13a) and sporadic (11) PTs, of which 35 were unique to prevalent PTs, including six plasmid-borne genes, pefA, B, C, D, srgC and rck, and four chromosomal genes encoding putative amino acid transporters. Phenotype array studies also demonstrated that strains from prevalent PTs were less susceptible to urea stress and utilized L-histidine, L-glutamine, L-proline, L-aspartic acid, gly-asn and gly-gln more efficiently than PT11 strains. Complementation of a PT11 strain with the transporter genes from PT4 resulted in a significant increase in utilization of the amino acids and reduced susceptibility to urea stress. In epithelial cell association assays, PT11 strains were less invasive than other prevalent PTs. Most strains from prevalent PTs were better biofilm formers at 37 degrees C than at 28 degrees C, whilst the converse was true for PT11 strains. Collectively, the results indicate that genetic and corresponding phenotypic differences exist between strains of the prevalent PTs 4, 6, 8 and 13a and non-prevalent PT11 strains that are likely to provide a selective advantage for strains from the former PTs and could help them to enter the food chain and cause salmonellosis.

Changes in area and geodetic mass balance of small glaciers, polar Urals, Russia, 1950-2008

Changes in area of 30 small glaciers (mostly <1 km2) in the northern Polar Urals (67.5-68.25 °N) between 1953 and 2000 were assessed using historic aerial photography from 1953 and 1960, ASTER and panchromatic Landsat ETM+ imagery from 2000, and data from 1981 and 2008 terrestrial surveys. Changes in volume and geodetic mass balance of IGAN and Obruchev glaciers were calculated using data from terrestrial surveys in 1963 and 2008. In total, glacier area declined by 22.3 ± 3.9% in the 1953/60-2000 period. The areas of individual glaciers decreased by 4-46%. Surfaces of Obruchev and IGAN glaciers lowered by 22.5 ± 1.7 m and 14.9 ± 2.1 m. Over 45 years, geodetic mass balances of Obruchev and IGAN glaciers were -20.66 ± 2.91 and -13.54 ± 2.57 m w.e. respectively. Glacier shrinkage in the Polar Urals is related to a summer warming of 1 °C between 1953-81 and 1981-2008 and its rates are consistent with other regions of northern Asia but are higher than in Scandinavia. While glacier shrinkage intensified in the 1981-2000 period relative to 1953-81, increasing winter precipitation and shading effects slowed glacier wastage in 2000-08.

The influence of eddy parameterizations on the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in coupled climate models

The transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) varies strongly across the coupled GCMs (general circulation models) used for the IPCC AR4. This note shows that a large fraction of this across-model variance can be explained by relating it to the parameterization of eddy-induced transports. In the majority of models this parameterization is based on the study by Gent and McWilliams (1990). The main parameter is the quasi-Stokes diffusivity kappa (often referred to less accurately as ’’thickness diffusion’’). The ACC transport and the meridional density gradient both correlate strongly with kappa across those models where kappa is a prescribed constant. In contrast, there is no correlation with the isopycnal diffusivity jiso across the models. The sensitivity of the ACC transport to kappa is larger than to the zonal wind stress maximum. Experiments with the fast GCM FAMOUS show that changing kappa directly affects the ACC transport by changing the density structure throughout the water column. Our results suggest that this limits the role of the wind stress magnitude in setting the ACC transport in FAMOUS. The sensitivities of the ACC and the meridional density gradient are very similar across the AR4 GCMs (for those models where kappa is a prescribed constant) and among the FAMOUS experiments. The strong sensitivity of the ACC transport to kappa needs careful assessment in climate models.

A global view of the extratropical tropopause transition layer from Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer O3, H2O, and CO

The global behavior of the extratropical tropopause transition layer (ExTL) is investigated using O3, H2O, and CO measurements from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) on Canada’s SCISAT-1 satellite obtained between February 2004 and May 2007. The ExTL depth is derived using H2O-O3 and CO-O3 correlations. The ExTL top derived from H2O-O3 shows an increase from roughly 1–1.5 km above the thermal tropopause in the subtropics to 3–4 km (2.5–3.5 km) in the north (south) polar region, implying somewhat weaker tropospherestratosphere- transport in the Southern Hemisphere. The ExTL bottom extends ~1 km below the thermal tropopause, indicating a persistent stratospheric influence on the troposphere at all latitudes. The ExTL top derived from the CO-O3 correlation is lower, at 2 km or ~345 K (1.5 km or ~335 K) in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Its annual mean coincides with the relative temperature maximum just above the thermal tropopause. The vertical CO gradient maximizes at the thermal tropopause, indicating a local minimum in mixing within the tropopause region. The seasonal changes in and the scales of the vertical H2O gradients show a similar pattern as the static stability structure of the tropopause inversion layer (TIL), which provides observational support for the hypothesis that H2O plays a radiative role in forcing and maintaining the structure of the TIL.