Epidemiology of injuries in female high school soccer players.

Background: Sport is a compulsory activity in schools in South Africa. Female learners participating in soccer are more vulnerable to injuries than males. Objective: This study determined the epidemiology of injuries in female high school soccer players. Methods: A cross sectional survey captured the epidemiology of injuries in the players. The population included 200 players from 27 high schools in one district between the ages of 14 to 19 years. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data. Results: Only 85 scholars from 8 schools participated. From the 85 respondents, 31 (36.5%) sustained injuries. Only 61 injuries were reported by the injured players. The injury prevalence for the season was 36.5%. The rate of injury was 90 per 1000 athlete exposure hours during the season. The defenders and midfielders sustained the most injuries. Most injuries reported were contact in nature. More injuries occurred during training than during matches. The lower extremity (77.8%) was injured more than the upper extremity (22.2%). The knee (22.2%) and ankle (15.9%) were the most frequently injured body parts. Muscle injury was the most commonly reported followed by bruising. Conclusion: Prevalence of injuries was high with the lower limb, specifically the knee and ankle being commonly injured.

SEMIPARAMETRIC METHODS IN THE ESTIMATION OF TAIL PROBABILITIES AND EXTREME QUANTILES

In quantitative risk analysis, the problem of estimating small threshold exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles arise ubiquitously in bio-surveillance, economics, natural disaster insurance actuary, quality control schemes, etc. A useful way to make an assessment of extreme events is to estimate the probabilities of exceeding large threshold values and extreme quantiles judged by interested authorities. Such information regarding extremes serves as essential guidance to interested authorities in decision making processes. However, in such a context, data are usually skewed in nature, and the rarity of exceedance of large threshold implies large fluctuations in the distribution's upper tail, precisely where the accuracy is desired mostly. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a branch of statistics that characterizes the behavior of upper or lower tails of probability distributions. However, existing methods in EVT for the estimation of small threshold exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles often lead to poor predictive performance in cases where the underlying sample is not large enough or does not contain values in the distribution's tail. In this dissertation, we shall be concerned with an out of sample semiparametric (SP) method for the estimation of small threshold probabilities and extreme quantiles. The proposed SP method for interval estimation calls for the fusion or integration of a given data sample with external computer generated independent samples. Since more data are used, real as well as artificial, under certain conditions the method produces relatively short yet reliable confidence intervals for small exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles.

Rare sex or out of reach equilibrium? The dynamics of F-IS in partially clonal organisms

Background: Partially clonal organisms are very common in nature, yet the influence of partial asexuality on the temporal dynamics of genetic diversity remains poorly understood. Mathematical models accounting for clonality predict deviations only for extremely rare sex and only towards mean inbreeding coefficient (F-IS) over bar < 0. Yet in partially clonal species, both F-IS < 0 and F-IS > 0 are frequently observed also in populations where there is evidence for a significant amount of sexual reproduction. Here, we studied the joint effects of partial clonality, mutation and genetic drift with a state-and-time discrete Markov chain model to describe the dynamics of F-IS over time under increasing rates of clonality. Results: Results of the mathematical model and simulations show that partial clonality slows down the asymptotic convergence to F-IS = 0. Thus, although clonality alone does not lead to departures from Hardy-Weinberg expectations once reached the final equilibrium state, both negative and positive F-IS values can arise transiently even at intermediate rates of clonality. More importantly, such "transient" departures from Hardy Weinberg proportions may last long as clonality tunes up the temporal variation of F-IS and reduces its rate of change over time, leading to a hyperbolic increase of the maximal time needed to reach the final mean (F-IS,F-infinity) over bar value expected at equilibrium. Conclusion: Our results argue for a dynamical interpretation of F-IS in clonal populations. Negative values cannot be interpreted as unequivocal evidence for extremely scarce sex but also as intermediate rates of clonality in finite populations. Complementary observations (e.g. frequency distribution of multiloci genotypes, population history) or time series data may help to discriminate between different possible conclusions on the extent of clonality when mean (F-IS) over bar values deviating from zero and/or a large variation of F-IS over loci are observed.

Theory of mind after mild TBI in preschool children : a longitudinal perspective

Les enfants d’âge préscolaire (≤ 5 ans) sont plus à risque de subir un traumatisme crânio-cérébral (TCC) que les enfants plus agés, et 90% de ces TCC sont de sévérité légère (TCCL). De nombreuses études publiées dans les deux dernières décennies démontrent que le TCCL pédiatrique peut engendrer des difficultés cognitives, comportementales et psychiatriques en phase aigüe qui, chez certains enfants, peuvent perdurer à long terme. Il existe une littérature florissante concernant l'impact du TCCL sur le fonctionnement social et sur la cognition sociale (les processus cognitifs qui sous-tendent la socialisation) chez les enfants d'âge scolaire et les adolescents. Or, seulement deux études ont examiné l'impact d'un TCCL à l'âge préscolaire sur le développement social et aucune étude ne s'est penchée sur les répercussions socio-cognitives d'un TCCL précoce (à l’âge préscolaire). L'objectif de la présente thèse était donc d'étudier les conséquences du TCCL en bas âge sur la cognition sociale. Pour ce faire, nous avons examiné un aspect de la cognition sociale qui est en plein essor à cet âge, soit la théorie de l'esprit (TE), qui réfère à la capacité de se mettre à la place d'autrui et de comprendre sa perspective. Le premier article avait pour but d'étudier deux sous-composantes de la TE, soit la compréhension des fausses croyances et le raisonnement des désirs et des émotions d'autrui, six mois post-TCCL. Les résultats indiquent que les enfants d'âge préscolaire (18 à 60 mois) qui subissent un TCCL ont une TE significativement moins bonne 6 mois post-TCCL comparativement à un groupe contrôle d'enfants n'ayant subi aucune blessure. Le deuxième article visait à éclaircir l'origine de la diminution de la TE suite à un TCCL précoce. Cet objectif découle du débat qui existe actuellement dans la littérature. En effet, plusieurs scientifiques sont d'avis que l'on peut conclure à un effet découlant de la blessure au cerveau seulement lorsque les enfants ayant subi un TCCL sont comparés à des enfants ayant subi une blessure n'impliquant pas la tête (p.ex., une blessure orthopédique). Cet argument est fondé sur des études qui démontrent qu'en général, les enfants qui sont plus susceptibles de subir une blessure, peu importe la nature de celle-ci, ont des caractéristiques cognitives pré-existantes (p.ex. impulsivité, difficultés attentionnelles). Il s'avère donc possible que les difficultés que nous croyons attribuables à la blessure cérébrale étaient présentes avant même que l'enfant ne subisse un TCCL. Dans cette deuxième étude, nous avons donc comparé les performances aux tâches de TE d'enfants ayant subi un TCCL à ceux d'enfants appartenant à deux groupes contrôles, soit des enfants n'ayant subi aucune blessure et à des pairs ayant subi une blessure orthopédique. De façon générale, les enfants ayant subi un TCCL ont obtenu des performances significativement plus faibles à la tâche évaluant le raisonnement des désirs et des émotions d'autrui, 6 mois post-blessure, comparativement aux deux groupes contrôles. Cette étude visait également à examiner l'évolution de la TE suite à un TCCL, soit de 6 mois à 18 mois post-blessure. Les résultats démontrent que les moindres performances sont maintenues 18 mois post-TCCL. Enfin, le troisième but de cette étude était d’investiguer s’il existe un lien en la performance aux tâches de TE et les habiletés sociales, telles qu’évaluées à l’aide d’un questionnaire rempli par le parent. De façon intéressante, la TE est associée aux habiletés sociales seulement chez les enfants ayant subi un TCCL. Dans l'ensemble, ces deux études mettent en évidence des répercussions spécifiques du TCCL précoce sur la TE qui persistent à long terme, et une TE amoindrie seraient associée à de moins bonnes habiletés sociales. Cette thèse démontre qu'un TCCL en bas âge peut faire obstacle au développement sociocognitif, par le biais de répercussions sur la TE. Ces résultats appuient la théorie selon laquelle le jeune cerveau immature présente une vulnérabilité accrue aux blessures cérébrales. Enfin, ces études mettent en lumière la nécessité d'étudier ce groupe d'âge, plutôt que d'extrapoler à partir de résultats obtenus avec des enfants plus âgés, puisque les enjeux développementaux s'avèrent différents, et que ceux-ci ont potentiellement une influence majeure sur les répercussions d'une blessure cérébrale sur le fonctionnement sociocognitif.

‘Failure to maintain’: care rationing and the clinical and financial burden of nurse sensitive hospital-acquired complications in complex older patients

Background: The ageing population, with concomitant increase in chronic conditions, is increasing the presence of older people with complex needs in hospital. People with dementia are one of these complex populations and are particularly vulnerable to complications in hospital. Registered nurses can offer simultaneous assessment and intervention to prevent or mitigate hospital-acquired complications through their skilled brokerage between patient needs and hospital functions. A range of patient outcome measures that are sensitive to nursing care has been tested in nursing work environments across the world. However, none of these measures have focused on hospitalised older patients. Method: This thesis explores nursing-sensitive complications for older patients with and without dementia using an internationally recognised, risk-adjusted patient outcome approach. Specifically explored are: the differences between rates of complications; the costs of complications; and cost comparisons of patient complexity. A retrospective cohort study of an Australian state’s 2006–07 public hospital discharge data was utilised to identify patient episodes for people over age 50 (N=222,440) where dementia was identified as a primary or secondary diagnosis (N=44,422). Extra costs for patient episodes were estimated based on length of stay (LOS) above the average for each patient’s Diagnosis Related Group (DRG) (N=157,178) and were modelled using linear regression analysis to establish the strongest patient complexity predictors of cost. Results: Hospitalised patients with a primary or secondary diagnosis of dementia had higher rates of complications than did their same-age peers. The highest rates and relative risk for people with dementia were found in four key complications: urinary tract infections; pressure injuries; pneumonia, and delirium. While 21.9% of dementia patients (9,751/44,488, p<0.0001) suffered a complication, only 8.8% of non-dementia patients did so (33,501/381,788, p<0.0001), giving dementia patients a 2.5 relative risk of acquiring a complication (p<0.0001). These four key complications in patients over 50 both with and without dementia were associated with an eightfold increase in length of stay (813%, or 3.6 days/0.4 days) and double the increased estimated mean episode cost (199%, or A$16,403/ A$8,240). These four complications were associated with 24.7% of the estimated cost of additional days spent in hospital in 2006–07 in NSW (A$226million/A$914million). Dementia patients accounted for 22.0% of these costs (A$49million/A$226million) even though they were only 10.4% of the population (44,488/426,276 episodes). Hospital-acquired complications, particularly for people with a comorbidity of dementia, cost more than other kinds of inpatient complexity but admission severity was a better predictor of excess cost. Discussion: Four key complications occur more often in older patients with dementia and the high rate of these complications makes them expensive. These complications are potentially preventable. However, the care that can prevent them (such as mobility, hydration, nutrition and communication) is known to be rationed or left unfinished by nurses. Older hospitalised people who have complex needs, such as those with dementia, are more likely to experience care rationing as their care tends to take longer, be less predictable and less curative in nature. This thesis offers the theoretical proposition that evidence-based nursing practices are rationed for complex older patients and that this rationed care contributes to functional and cognitive decline during hospitalisation. This, in turn, contributes to the high rates of complications observed. Thus four key complications can be seen as a ‘Failure to Maintain’ complex older people in hospital. ‘Failure to Maintain’ is the inadequate delivery of essential functional and cognitive care for a complex older person in hospital resulting in a complication, and is recommended as a useful indicator for hospital quality. Conclusions: When examining extra length of stay in hospital, complications and comorbid dementia are costly. Complications are potentially preventable, and dementia care in hospitals can be improved. Hospitals and governments looking to decrease costs can engage in risk-reduction strategies for common nurse sensitive complications such as healthy nursing work environments that minimise nurses’ rationing of functional and cognitive care. The conceptualisation of complex older patients as ‘business as usual’ rather than a ‘burden’ is likely necessary for sustainable health care services of the future. The use of the ‘Failure to Maintain’ indicators at institution and state levels may aid in embedding this approach for complex older patients into health organisations. Ongoing investigation is warranted into the relationships between the largest health services expense (hospitals), the largest hospital population (complex older patients), and the largest hospital expense (nurses). The ‘Failure to Maintain’ quality indicator makes a useful and substantive contribution to further clinical, administrative and research developments.

Developmental mechanisms of stripe patterns in rodents

International audience

Designing Hydrogels that Transform their Shape in Response to Molecular Cues

There has been considerable interest in developing shape-changing soft materials for potential applications in drug delivery, microfluidics and biosensing. These shape- changing materials are inspired by the morphological changes exhibited by plants in nature, such as the Venus flytrap. One specific class of shape-change is that from a flat sheet to a folded structure (e.g., a tube). Such “self-folding” materials are usually composed of polymer hydrogels, and these typically fold in response to external stimuli such as pH and temperature. In order to develop these hydrogels for the previously described applications, it is necessary to expand the range of triggers. The focus of this dissertation is the advancement of shape-changing polymer hydrogels that are sensitive to uncommon cues such as specific biomolecules (enzymes), the substrates for such enzymes, or specific multivalent cations. First, we describe a hybrid gel that responds to the presence of low concentrations of a class of enzymes known as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs). The hybrid gel was created by utilizing photolithographic techniques to combine two or more gels with distinct chemical composition into the same material. Certain portions of the hybrid gel are composed of a biopolymer derivative with crosslinkable groups. The hybrid gel is flat in water; however, in the presence of MMPs, the regions containing the biopolymer are degraded and the flat sheet folds to form a 3D structure. We demonstrate that hydrogels with different patterns can transform into different 3D structures such as tubes, helices and pancakes. Furthermore, this shape change can be made to occur at physiological concentrations of enzymes. Next, we report a gel with two layers that undergoes a shape change in the presence of glucose. The enzyme glucose oxidase (GOx) is immobilized in one of the layers. GOx catalyzes the conversion of glucose to gluconic acid. The production of gluconic acid decreases the local pH. The decrease in local pH causes one of the layers to swell. As a result, the flat sheet folds to form a tube. The tube unfolds to form a flat sheet when it is transferred to a solution with no glucose present. Therefore, this biomolecule- triggered shape transformation is reversible, meaning the glucose sensing gel is reusable. Furthermore, this shape change only occurs in the presence of glucose and it does not occur in the presence of other small sugars such as fructose. In our final study, we report the shape change of a gel with two layers in the presence of multivalent ions such as Ca2+ and Sr2+. The gel consists of a passive layer and an active layer. The passive layer is composed of dimethylyacrylamide (DMAA), which does not interact with multivalent ions. The active layer consists of DMAA and the biopolymer alginate. In the presence of Ca2+ ions, the alginate chains crosslink and the active layer shrinks. As a result, the gel converts from a flat sheet to a folded tube. What is particularly unusual is the direction of folding. In most cases, when flat rectangular gels fold, they do so about their short-side. However, our gels typically fold about their long-side. We hypothesize that non-homogeneous swelling determines the folding axis.

Trattamento plasma assistito di acqua con una sorgente Dielectric Barrier Discharge (DBD): analisi delle specie reattive prodotte e potere battericida

La proliferazione di batteri in liquido è una problematica che riguarda anche le acque di fiumi e mari. In questo progetto di tesi sperimentale si indagherà un trattamento plasma assistito diretto di acqua sintetica riprodotta in laboratorio con l’obiettivo di ottenere un effetto battericida sul liquido contaminato. L’acqua trattata verrà analizzata chimicamente, in particolare si andranno a misurare i TRO (Total Residual Oxidant, composti dell’ossigeno derivanti dalla parziale ozonizzazione dell’acqua) che dovranno essere presenti in quantità minori di 0,1 mg/l. Il dispositivo utilizzato per i test biologici è una sorgente di tipologia DBD (Dielectric Barrier Discharge) indiretto. Gli elettrodi della sorgente sono separati dal solo strato di materiale dielettrico e uno di questi è composto da una rete metallica in acciaio inossidabile. Il plasma si forma tra le maglie della rete e induce la formazione di specie reattive, radiazioni UV, particelle cariche, campi elettromagnetici e calore. Ciò che raggiunge la soluzione contaminata è l’afterglow del plasma, ovvero tutte le specie reattive a lunga vita prodotte dalla ionizzazione dell’aria e dalle radiazioni UV. La sorgente è stata dapprima caratterizzata elettricamente studiando le forme d’onda di tensione e corrente a determinate condizioni operative. Il liquido da trattare è contaminato con il batterio Escherichia coli. è emerso che in tutti i casi testati i livelli degli ossidanti sono entro il limite prestabilito di 0,1 mg/l. Il trattamento plasma in soli 10 secondi è responsabile di una decontaminazione parziale del batterio E. coli. Da ulteriori studi si potranno trovare delle condizioni tali da inattivare totalmente la carica batterica presente date le grandi potenzialità di questo trattamento.

Investigation of Escape and Negative Student Behaviors Related to Florida State High Stakes Test Preparation in Miami-Dade County Public High Schools, having been approved in respect to style and intellectual content, is referred to you for judgment

The purpose of this study was to determine whether there was a relationship between pressure to perform on state mandated, high-stakes tests and the rate of student escape behavior defined as the number of school suspensions and absences. The state assigned grade of a school was used as a surrogate measure of pressure with the assumption that pressure increased as the school grade decreased. Student attendance and suspension data were gathered from all 33 of the regular public high schools in Miami-Dade County Public Schools. The research questions were: Is the number of suspensions highest in the third quarter, when most FCAT preparation takes place for each of the 3 school years 2007-08 through 2009-10? How accurately does the high school’s grade predict the number of suspensions and number of absences during each of the 4 school years 2005-06 through 2008-09? The research questions were answered using repeated measures analysis of variance for research question #1 and non-linear multiple regression for research question #2. No significant difference could be found between the numbers of suspensions in each of the grading periods nor was there a relationship between the number of suspensions and school grade. A statistically significant relationship was found between student attendance and school grade. When plotted, this relationship was found to be quadratic in nature and formed a loose inverted U for each of the four years during which data were collected. This indicated that students in very high and very low performing schools had low levels of absences while those in the midlevel of the distribution of school performance (C schools) had the greatest rates of absence. Identifying a relationship between the pressures associated with high stakes testing and student escape behavior suggests that it might be useful for building administrators to reevaluate test preparation activities and procedures being used in their building and to include anxiety reducing strategies. As a relationship was found, it sets the foundation for future studies to identify whether testing related activities are impacting some students emotionally and are causing unintended consequences of testing mandates.

Unity in Christ or Pan-Europeanism?:Nathan Söderblom and the ecumenical peace movement in the interwar period

In the summer of 2014 the Swedish Church is celebrating the 100th anniversary of the appointment of Nathan Söderblom as archbishop of Uppsala, and thus head of the Swedish church organisation. As a Lutheran with an enormously broad-minded and broad-reaching approach to ecumenical understanding and community-building, Söderblom shot to prominence in the interwar period not only because of his ecumenical engagement, calling for an evangelical catholicity so stand side by side with the Roman catholic and Orthodox catholic traditions, but also because of his comprehensive secular engagement for peace and understanding between peoples. In the latter context he also acquired a solid reputation as a perhaps less prominent but still noteworthy figure in the history of European integration. This article investigates how, why and to what extent Söderblom’s ecumenical and secular engagements were intertwined. The first part discusses how his biographical and academic background led to such staunch ecumenical positions, while the second part focuses on the secular engagement, which was perceived by Söderblom as necessary to make progress on the ecumenical front in the practical political realities of the 1920s. The final part, comparing and contrasting Söderblom’s views with those of Count Richard von Coudenhove-Calergi and the Pan-European Union, demonstrates why Söderblom’s engagement for Europe had to be limited: unity in Christ is by definition global in nature and therefore cannot be continent-specific.

Vortex evolution in the wake of accelerating low-aspect-ratio plates and three-dimensional bodies of revolution

To find examples of effecient locomotion and manoeuvrability, one need only turn to the elegant solutions natural flyers and swimmers have converged upon. This dissertation is specifically motivated by processes of evolutionary convergence, which have led to the propulsors and body shapes in nature that exhibit strong geometric collapse over diverse scales. These body features are abstracted in the studies presented herein using low-aspect-ratio at plates and a three-dimensional body of revolution (a sphere). The highly-separated vortical wakes that develop during accelerations are systematically characterized as a function of planform shape, aspect ratio, Reynolds number, and initial boundary conditions. To this end, force measurements and time-resolved (planar) particle image velocimetry have been used throughout to quantify the instantaneous forces and vortex evolution in the wake of the bluff bodies. During rectilinear motions, the wake development for the flat plates is primarily dependent on plate aspect ratio, with edge discontinuities and curvature playing only a secondary role. Furthermore, the axisymmetric case, i.e. the circular plate, shows strong sensitivity to Reynolds number, while this sensitivity quickly diminishes with increasing aspect ratio. For rotational motions, global insensitivity to plate aspect ratio has been observed. For the sphere, it has been shown that accelerations play an important role in the mitigation of flow separation. These results - expounded upon in this dissertation - have begun to shed light on the specific vortex dynamics that may be coopted by flying and swimming species of all shapes and sizes towards efficient locomotion.

Leptin modifies the prosecretory and prokinetic effects of the inflammatory cytokine interleukin-6 on colonic function in Sprague–Dawley rats

Leptin ameliorates the prosecretory and prokinetic effects of the pro-inflammatory cytokine interleukin-6 on rat colon. Leptin also suppresses the neurostimulatory effects of irritable bowel syndrome plasma, which has elevated concentrations of interleukin-6, on enteric neurons. This may indicate a regulatory role for leptin in immune-mediated bowel dysfunction. In addition to its role in regulating energy homeostasis, the adipokine leptin modifies gastrointestinal (GI) function. Indeed, leptin-resistant obese humans and leptin-deficient obese mice exhibit altered GI motility. In the functional GI disorder irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), circulating leptin concentrations are reported to differ from those of healthy control subjects. Additionally, IBS patients display altered cytokine profiles, including elevated circulating concentrations of the pro-inflammatory cytokine interleukin-6 (IL-6), which bears structural homology and similarities in intracellular signalling to leptin. This study aimed to investigate interactions between leptin and IL-6 in colonic neurons and their possible contribution to IBS pathophysiology. The functional effects of leptin and IL-6 on colonic contractility and absorptosecretory function were assessed in organ baths and Ussing chambers in Sprague–Dawley rat colon. Calcium imaging and immunohistochemical techniques were used to investigate the neural regulation of GI function by these signalling molecules. Our findings provide a neuromodulatory role for leptin in submucosal neurons, where it inhibited the stimulatory effects of IL-6. Functionally, this translated to suppression of IL-6-evoked potentiation of veratridine-induced secretory currents. Leptin also attenuated IL-6-induced colonic contractions, although it had little direct effect on myenteric neurons. Calcium responses evoked by IBS plasma in both myenteric and submucosal neurons were also suppressed by leptin, possibly through interactions with IL-6, which is elevated in IBS plasma. As leptin has the capacity to ameliorate the neurostimulatory effects of soluble mediators in IBS plasma and modulated IL-6-evoked changes in bowel function, leptin may have a role in immune-mediated bowel dysfunction in IBS patients.

Diversity and Stability in Food Webs : Impacts of Non-Equilibrium Dynamics, Topology and Variation

With progressive climate change, the preservation of biodiversity is becoming increasingly important. Only if the gene pool is large enough and requirements of species are diverse, there will be species that can adapt to the changing circumstances. To maintain biodiversity, we must understand the consequences of the various strategies. Mathematical models of population dynamics could provide prognoses. However, a model that would reproduce and explain the mechanisms behind the diversity of species that we observe experimentally and in nature is still needed. A combination of theoretical models with detailed experiments is needed to test biological processes in models and compare predictions with outcomes in reality. In this thesis, several food webs are modeled and analyzed. Among others, models are formulated of laboratory experiments performed in the Zoological Institute of the University of Cologne. Numerical data of the simulations is in good agreement with the real experimental results. Via numerical simulations it can be demonstrated that few assumptions are necessary to reproduce in a model the sustained oscillations of the population size that experiments show. However, analysis indicates that species "thrown together by chance" are not very likely to survive together over long periods. Even larger food nets do not show significantly different outcomes and prove how extraordinary and complicated natural diversity is. In order to produce such a coexistence of randomly selected species—as the experiment does—models require additional information about biological processes or restrictions on the assumptions. Another explanation for the observed coexistence is a slow extinction that takes longer than the observation time. Simulated species survive a comparable period of time before they die out eventually. Interestingly, it can be stated that the same models allow the survival of several species in equilibrium and thus do not follow the so-called competitive exclusion principle. This state of equilibrium is more fragile, however, to changes in nutrient supply than the oscillating coexistence. Overall, the studies show, that having a diverse system means that population numbers are probably oscillating, and on the other hand oscillating population numbers stabilize a food web both against demographic noise as well as against changes of the habitat. Model predictions can certainly not be converted at their face value into policies for real ecosystems. But the stabilizing character of fluctuations should be considered in the regulations of animal populations.

Towards in silico IBV vaccine design: defining the role of polymorphism in viral attenuation

The gammacoronavirus, Infectious Bronchitis Virus (IBV), is a respiratory pathogen of chickens. IBV is a constant threat to poultry production as established vaccines are often ineffective against emerging strains. This requires constant and rapid vaccine production by a process of viral attenuation by egg passage, but the essential forces leading to attenuation in the virus have not yet been characterised. Knowledge of these factors will lead to the development of more effective, rationally attenuated, live vaccines and reduction of the mortality and morbidity caused by this pathogen. M41 CK strain was egg passaged four times many years ago at Houghton Poultry Research Station and stored as M41-CK EP4 (stock virus at The Pirbright Institute since 1992). It was the first egg passage to have its genome pyrosequenced and was therefore used as the baseline reference. The overall aim of this project was to analyse deep sequence data obtained from four IBV isolates (called A, A1, C and D) each originating from the common M41-CK EP4 (ep4) and independently passaged multiple times in embryonated chicken eggs (figure 1.1). Highly polymorphic encoding regions of the IBV genome were then identified which are likely involved in the attenuation process through the formation of independent SNPs and/or SNP clusters. This was then used to direct targeted investigation of SNPs during the attenuation process of the four IBV passages. A previously generated deep sequence dataset was used as a preliminary map of attenuation for one virulent strain of IBV. This investigation showed the nucleocapsid and spike as two highly polymorphic encoding regions within the IBV genome with the highest proportion of SNPs compared to encoding region size. This analysis then led to more focussed studies of the nucleocapsid and spike encoding region with the ultimate aim of mapping key attenuating regions and nucleotide positions. The 454 pyrosequencing data and further investigation of nucleocapsid and spike encoding regions have identified the SNPs present at the same nucleotide positions within analysed A, A1, C and D isolates. These SNPs probably play a crucial role in viral attenuation and universal vaccine production but it is not clear if independent SNPs are also involved in loss of virulence. The majority of SNPs accumulated at different nucleotide positions without further continuation in Sanger sequenced egg passages presenting S2 subunit (spike) and nucleocapsid as polymorphic encoding regions which in nature remain highly conserved.

The locations of recent supernovae near the Sun from modelling 60Fe transport

The signature of 60Fe in deep-sea crusts indicates that one or more supernovae exploded in the solar neighbourhood about 2.2 million years ago1–4. Recent isotopic analysis is consistent with a core-collapse or electron-capture supernova that occurred 60 to 130 parsecs from the Sun5. Moreover, peculiarities in the cosmic ray spectrum point to a nearby supernova about two million years ago6. The Local Bubble of hot, diffuse plasma, in which the Solar System is embedded, originated from 14 to 20 supernovae within a moving group, whose surviving members are now in the Scorpius– Centaurus stellar association7,8. Here we report calculations of the most probable trajectories and masses of the supernova progenitors, and hence their explosion times and sites. The 60Fe signal arises from two supernovae at distances between 90 and 100 parsecs. The closest occurred 2.3 million years ago at present-day galactic coordinates l = 327°, b = 11°, and the second-closest exploded about 1.5 million years ago at l = 343°, b = 25°, with masses of 9.2 and 8.8 times the solar mass, respectively. The remaining supernovae, which formed the Local Bubble, contribute to a smaller extent because they happened at larger distances and longer ago (60Fe has a half- life of 2.6 million years9,10). There are uncertainties relating to the nucleosynthesis yields and the loss of 60Fe during transport, but they do not influence the relative distribution of 60Fe in the crust layers, and therefore our model reproduces the measured relative abundances very well.