Nominal versus indexed debt: A quantitative horse race

The main arguments in favor and against nominal and indexed debts are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortion, government outlays uncertainty, and contingent-debt service. Our framework also recognizes that contingent debt can be associated with incentive problems and lack of commitment. Thus, the benefits of unexpected inflation are tempered by higher interest rates. We obtain that costs from inflation more than offset the benefits from reducing tax distortions. We further discuss sustainability of nominal debt in developing (volatile) countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implications of current ecological thinking for biodiversity conservation: A review of the salient issues

Given escalating concern worldwide about the loss of biodiversity, and given biodiversity's centrality to quality of life, it is imperative that current ecological knowledge fully informs societal decision making. Over the past two decades, ecological science has undergone many significant shifts in emphasis and perspective, which have important implications for how we manage ecosystems and species. In particular, a shift has occurred from the equilibrium paradigm to one that recognizes the dynamic, non-equilibrium nature of ecosystems. Revised thinking about the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological systems has important implications for management. Thus, it is of growing concern to ecologists and others that these recent developments have not been translated into information useful to managers and policy makers. Many conservation policies and plans are still based on equilibrium assumptions. A fundamental difficulty with integrating current ecological thinking into biodiversity policy and management planning is that field observations have yet to provide compelling evidence for many of the relationships suggested by non-equilibrium ecology. Yet despite this scientific uncertainty, management and policy decisions must still be made. This paper was motivated by the need for considered scientific debate on the significance of current ideas in theoretical ecology for biodiversity conservation. This paper aims to provide a platform for such discussion by presenting a critical synthesis of recent ecological literature that (1) identifies core issues in ecological theory, and (2) explores the implications of current ecological thinking for biodiversity conservation.

Achieving the millennium development goals for health - Cost effectiveness analysis of strategies for. maternal and neonatal health in developing countries

Objective To determine the costs and benefits of interventions for maternal and newborn health to assess the appropriateness of current strategies and guide future plans to attain the millennium development goals. Design Cost effectiveness analysis. Setting Two regions classified by the World Health Organization according to their epidemiological grouping: Afr-E, those countries in sub-Saharan Africa with very high adult and high child mortality, and Sear-D, comprising countries in South East Asia with high adult and high child mortality. Data sources Effectiveness data from several sources, including trials, observational studies, and expert opinion. For resource inputs, quantifies came from WHO guidelines, literature, and expert opinion, and prices from the WHO choosing interventions that are cost effective database. Main outcome measures Cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted in year 2000 international dollars. Results The most cost effective mix of interventions was similar in Afr-E and Sear-D. These were the community based newborn care package, followed by antenatal care (tetanus toxoid, screening for pre-eclampsia, screening and treatment of asymptomatic bacteriuria and syphilis); skilled attendance at birth, offering first level maternal and neonatal care around childbirth; and emergency obstetric and neonatal care around and after birth. Screening and treatment of maternal syphilis, community based management of neonatal pneumonia, and steroids given during the antenatal period were relatively less cost effective in Sear-D. Scaling up all of the included interventions to 95% coverage would halve neonatal and maternal deaths. Conclusion Preventive interventions at the community level for newborn babies and at the primary care level for mothers and newborn babies are extremely cost effective, but the millennium development goals for maternal and child health will not be achieved without universal access to clinical services as well.

INTENSITY-MODULATED AND 3D-CONFORMAL RADIOTHERAPY FOR WHOLE-VENTRICULAR IRRADIATION AS COMPARED WITH CONVENTIONAL WHOLE-BRAIN IRRADIATION IN THE MANAGEMENT OF LOCALIZED CENTRAL NERVOUS SYSTEM GERM CELL TUMORS

Purpose: To compare the sparing potential of cerebral hemispheres with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) for whole-ventricular irradiation (WVI) and conventional whole-brain irradiation (WBI) in the management of localized central nervous system germ cell tumors (CNSGCTs). Methods and Materials: Ten cases of patients with localized CNSGCTs and submitted to WVI by use of IMRT with or without a ""boost"" to the primary lesion were selected. For comparison purposes, similar treatment plans were produced by use of 3D-CRT (WVI with or without boost) and WBI (opposed lateral fields with or without boost), and cerebral hemisphere sparing was evaluated at dose levels ranging from 2 Gy to 40 Gy. Results: The median prescription dose for WVI was 30.6 Gy (range, 25.2-37.5 Gy), and that for the boost was 16.5 Gy (range, 0-23.4 Gy). Mean irradiated cerebral hemisphere volumes were lower for WVI with IMRT than for 3D-CRT and were lower for WVI with 3D-CRT than for WBI. Intensity-modulated radiotherapy was associated with the lowest irradiated volumes, with reductions of 7.5%, 12.2%, and 9.0% at dose levels., compared with 3D-CRT. Intensity-modulated radiotherapy provided of 20, 30, and 40 Gy, respectively statistically significant reductions of median irradiated volumes at all dose levels (p = 0.002 or less). However, estimated radiation doses to peripheral areas of the body were 1.9 times higher with IMRT than with 3D-CRT. Conclusions: Although IMRT is associated with increased radiation doses to peripheral areas of the body, its use can spare a significant amount of normal central nervous system tissue compared with 3D-CRT or WBI in the setting of CNSGCT treatment. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc.

Metallic Voice: Physiological and Acoustic Features

The metallic voice is usually confused with ring or nasality by singers and nontrained listeners. who are not used to perceptual vocal analysis. They believe a metallic voice results from a rise in fundamental frequency. A diagnostic error in this aspect may lead to lowering pitch, an incorrect procedure that Could Cause vocal overload and fatigue. The purpose of this article is to Study the quality of metallic voice considering the correlation between information of the physiological and acoustic plans, based on a perceptive consensual assumption. Fiberscopic video pharyngolaryngoscopy was performed on 21 professional singers while speaking vowel [e]-in normal and metallic modes to observe muscular movements and structural changes of the velopharynx, pharynx, and larynx. Vocal samples captured simultaneously to the fiberscopic examination were acoustically analyzed. Frequency and amplitude of the first four formants (F(1), F(2), F(3), and F(4)) were extracted by means of linear predictor coefficients (LPC) Spectrum and were statistically analyzed. Vocal tract adjustments such as velar lowering, pharyngeal wall narrowing, laryngeal rise, aryepiglottic, and lateral laryngeal constrictions were frequently found: there were no significant changes in frequency and amplitude of F(1) in the metallic voiced there were significant increases in amplitudes of F(2), F(3), and F(4) and in frequency for F, metallic Voice perceived as louder was correlated to an increase ill amplitude of F(3) and F(4). Physiological adjustments of velopharynx, pharynx, and larynx are combined in characterizing the metallic voice and can be acoustically related to changes in formant pattern.

The awareness of chronic fatigue syndrome: A comparative study in Brazil and the United Kingdom

Objective: While in many Western affluent countries there is widespread awareness of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS), also known as myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME), little is known about the awareness of CFS/ME in low- and middle-income countries. We compared the awareness of CFS in Brazil and the United Kingdom. Methods: Recognition and knowledge of CFS were assessed among 120 Brazilian specialist doctors in two major university hospitals using a typical case vignette of CFS. We also surveyed 3914 and 2435 consecutive attenders in Brazilian and British primary care clinics, respectively, concerning their awareness of CFS. Results: When given a typical case vignette of CFS, only 30.8% [95% confidence interval (CI), 22.7-39.9%] of Brazilian specialist doctors mentioned chronic fatigue or CFS as a possible diagnosis, a proportion substantially lower than that observed in Western affluent countries. Similarly, only 16.2% (95% CI, 15.1-17.4%) of Brazilian primary care attenders were aware of CFS, in contrast to 55.1% (95% CI, 53.1-57.1%) of their British counterparts (P <.001). This difference remained highly significant after controlling for patients` sociodemographic and socioeconomic characteristics (P <.001). Conclusions: The awareness of CFS was substantially lower in Brazil than the United Kingdom. The observed difference may influence patients` help-seeking behavior and both doctors` and patients` beliefs and attitudes in relation to fatigue-related syndromes. Attempts to promote the awareness of CFS should be considered in Brazil, but careful plans are required to ensure the delivery of sound evidence-based information. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Suicidality in Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder: Prevalence and Relation to Symptom Dimensions and Comorbid Conditions

Background: Suicidal thoughts and behaviors, also known as suicidality, are a fairly neglected area of study in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Objective: To evaluate several aspects of suicidality in a large multicenter sample of OCD patients and to compare those with and without suicidal ideation, plans, and attempts according to demographic and clinical variables, including symptom dimensions and comorbid disorders. Method: This cross-sectional study included 582 outpatients with primary OCD (DSM-IV) recruited between August 2003 and March 2008 from 7 centers of the Brazilian Research Consortium on Obsessive-Compulsive Spectrum Disorders. The following assessment instruments were used: the Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale, the Dimensional Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale, the Beck Depression and Anxiety Inventories, the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders, and 6 specific questions to investigate suicidality. After univariate analyses, logistic regression analyses were performed to adjust the associations between the dependent and explanatory variables for possible confounders. Results: Thirty-six percent of the patients reported lifetime suicidal thoughts, 20% had made suicidal plans, 11% had already attempted suicide, and 10% presented current suicidal thoughts. In the logistic regression, only lifetime major depressive disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) remained independently associated with all aspects of suicidal behaviors. The sexual/religious dimension and comorbid substance use disorders remained associated with suicidal thoughts and plans, while impulse-control disorders were associated with current suicidal thoughts and with suicide plans and attempts. Conclusions: The risk of suicidal behaviors must be carefully investigated in OCD patients, particularly those with symptoms of the sexual/religious dimension and comorbid major depressive disorder, PTSD, substance use disorders, and impulse-control disorders. J Clin Psychiatry 2011;72(1):17-26 (C) Copyright 2011 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Twelve-Month Prevalence of and Risk Factors for Suicide Attempts in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys

Objective: Although suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, clinicians and researchers lack a data-driven method to assess the risk of suicide attempts. This study reports the results of an analysis of a large cross-national epidemiologic survey database that estimates the 12-month prevalence of suicidal behaviors, identifies risk factors for suicide attempts, and combines these factors to create a risk index for 12-month suicide attempts separately for developed and developing countries. Method: Data come from the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys (conducted 2001-2007), in which 108,705 adults from 21 countries were interviewed using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview. The survey assessed suicidal behaviors and potential risk factors across multiple domains, including socio-demographic characteristics, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, DSM-IV disorders, and history of suicidal behavior. Results: Twelve-month prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans, and attempts are 2.0%, 0.6%, and 0.3%, respectively, for developed countries and 2.1%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, respectively, for developing countries. Risk factors for suicidal behaviors in both developed and developing countries include female sex, younger age, lower education and income, unmarried status, unemployment, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, and presence of diverse 12-month DSM-IV mental disorders. Combining risk factors from multiple domains produced risk indices that accurately predicted 12-month suicide attempts in both developed and developing countries (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.74-0.80). Conclusions: Suicidal behaviors occur at similar rates in both developed and developing countries. Risk indices assessing multiple domains can predict suicide attempts with fairly good accuracy and may be useful in aiding clinicians in the prediction of these behaviors. J Clin Psychiatry 2010;71(12):1617-1628 (C) Copyright 2010 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Childhood adversities as risk factors for onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, but the precise effect of childhood adversities as risk factors for the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour (suicide ideation, plans and attempts) are not well understood. Aims To examine the associations between childhood adversities as risk factors for the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour across 21 countries worldwide. Method Respondents from nationally representative samples (n = 55 299) were interviewed regarding childhood adversities that occurred before the age of 18 years and lifetime suicidal behaviour. Results Childhood adversities were associated with an increased risk of suicide attempt and ideation in both bivariate and multivariate models (odds ratio range 1.2-5.7). The risk increased with the number of adversities experienced, but at a decreasing rate. Sexual and physical abuse were consistently the strongest risk factors for both the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour, especially during adolescence. Associations remained similar after additional adjustment for respondents` lifetime mental disorder status. Conclusions Childhood adversities (especially intrusive or aggressive adversities) are powerful predictors of the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviours.

Treatment of suicidal people around the world

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide; however, little information is available about the treatment of suicidal people, or about barriers to treatment. Aims To examine the receipt of mental health treatment and barriers to care among suicidal people around the world. Method Twenty-one nationally representative samples worldwide (n=55 302; age 18 years and over) from the World Health Organization`s World Mental Health Surveys were interviewed regarding past-year suicidal behaviour and past-year healthcare use. Suicidal respondents who had not used services in the past year were asked why they had not sought care. Results Two-fifths of the suicidal respondents had received treatment (from 17% in low-income countries to 56% in high-income countries), mostly from a general medical practitioner (22%), psychiatrist (15%) or non-psychiatrist (15%). Those who had actually attempted suicide were more likely to receive care. Low perceived need was the most important reason for not seeking help (58%), followed by attitudinal barriers such as the wish to handle the problem alone (40%) and structural barriers such as financial concerns (15%). Only 7% of respondents endorsed stigma as a reason for not seeking treatment. Conclusions Most people with suicide ideation, plans and attempts receive no treatment. This is a consistent and pervasive finding, especially in low-income countries. Improving the receipt of treatment worldwide will have to take into account culture-specific factors that may influence the process of help-seeking.

Western blotting method (TESAcruzi) as a supplemental test for confirming the presence of anti-Trypanosoma cruzi antibodies in finger prick blood samples from children aged 0-5 years in Brazil

Some Latin American countries have plans for total control and/or eradication of Chagas disease by the main vector (Triatoma infestans) and by blood transfusion. To achieve this, patients with Chagas disease must be identified. A Western blotting test, TESAcruzi, is described as a supplemental test for diagnosis of Chagas disease using samples collected from children <5 years living in different states of Brazil. Blood samples collected by finger prick on filter paper were sent to the test laboratory by a central laboratory to confirm results obtained previously. Ten percent of negative samples, all doubtful and all positive samples were received. Commercial reagents, IgG indirect immunofluorescence, enzyme immunoassay, and a recently introduced TESAcruzi test were used. From 8788 samples, 163 (1.85%) were reactive by IgG-ELISA and 312 (3.55%) by IgG IIF. From these, 77 (0.87%) were reactive in the TESAcruzi test. The results had high clinical value to identify those truly infected. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aspects of adaptive management of coastal wetlands: Case studies of processes, conservation, restoration, impacts and assessment

Coastal wetlands are dynamic and include the freshwater-intertidal interface. In many parts of the world such wetlands are under pressure from increasing human populations and from predicted sea-level rise. Their complexity and the limited knowledge of processes operating in these systems combine to make them a management challenge.Adaptive management is advocated for complex ecosystem management (Hackney 2000; Meretsky et al. 2000; Thom 2000;National Research Council 2003).Adaptive management identifies management aims,makes an inventory/environmental assessment,plans management actions, implements these, assesses outcomes, and provides feedback to iterate the process (Holling 1978;Walters and Holling 1990). This allows for a dynamic management system that is responsive to change. In the area of wetland management recent adaptive approaches are exemplified by Natuhara et al. (2004) for wild bird management, Bunch and Dudycha (2004) for a river system, Thom (2000) for restoration, and Quinn and Hanna (2003) for seasonal wetlands in California. There are many wetland habitats for which we currently have only rudimentary knowledge (Hackney 2000), emphasizing the need for good information as a prerequisite for effective management. The management framework must also provide a way to incorporate the best available science into management decisions and to use management outcomes as opportunities to improve scientific understanding and provide feedback to the decision system. Figure 9.1 shows a model developed by Anorov (2004) based on the process-response model of Maltby et al. (1994) that forms a framework for the science that underlies an adaptive management system in the wetland context.

Benchmarking regional planning arrangements for natural resource management 2004–05: Progress, constraints and future directions for regions

This report provides a benchmark of progress in regional planning for natural resource management in Queensland and the tropical savannas region of northern Australia during 2004. It is based on a review of regional plans and planning processes against a set of pre-defined criteria designed specifically to evaluate regional planning arrangements.

Comparison of visual inspection, radiographic examination, laser fluorescence and their combinations on treatment decisions for occlusal surfaces

Purpose: To compare visual inspection (VI), radiographic examination (RX) and the laser fluorescence device DIAGNOdent (L), as well as their combinations in vitro regarding treatment decisions for occlusal surfaces. Methods: 72 extracted human permanent teeth (molars and premolars) were used. Treatment decisions were recorded by three calibrated examiners, and the options available were fissure sealant and conservative restoration. For validation of treatment decisions, the teeth were sectioned and examined in a stereomicroscope. Thereafter, dental slices were scanned and the images were edited to facilitate classification of existing carious lesions. Intra and inter-examiner reproducibility for the determination of treatment plans were calculated using Cohen`s kappa test (95%-CI). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and the area under the ROC curve were also calculated. Results: VI and L provided on average the greatest intra- and inter-examiner reproducibility, respectively. Although the combination of diagnostic methods may decrease both intra- and inter examiners reproducibility, combination of VI, L and RX resulted in the greatest sensitivity, being statistically superior to RX and L. There was more inter-examiner agreement for the option of restorative treatment, while the use of sealants as a treatment option yielded the lowest values. Negative predictive values were numerically inferior to positive predictive values, indicating that the examiners preferred not to restore a carious tooth than to proceed operatively in an intact tooth. The combination of the three methods studied showed the best results in determining treatment plans for occlusal surfaces, when compared to the other types of exams. On the other hand, radiographic examination and laser fluorescence were less efficient when used alone.

Multidisciplinary case conference reviews: Improving outcomes for nursing home residents, carers and health professionals

Aim of study: This study sought to determine whether multidisciplinary case conference reviews improved outcomes for nursing home residents, and the effects of this team approach to resident care on carers, including the hands-on carers employed by the nursing home, and health professionals. Method: 245 residents of three Canberra nursing homes were enrolled in this non-randomised controlled trial. The intervention consisted of sessions of three case conference reviews held between 10/4/96 and 4/12/96. These sessions were attended by the General Practitioners (GPs) of the residents discussed, the GP project officer from the ACT Division of General Practice, a clinical pharmacist, senior nursing staff, other health professionals eg physiotherapist, and occasionally the resident concerned or their representative. At each review, a case presentation by the resident's GP was followed by a multidisciplinary discussion of all aspects, medical and non-medical, of the resident's care. The review concluded with a management plan for the resident. In total 75 residents were reviewed. Main outcome measures: Medication use and cost, and mortality. Results: One month after the reviews were completed comparisons between those who were reviewed and those who were not showed non-significant reductions in medication orders, medication cost, and mortality in the reviewed group. Many of the 92 recommendations in the management plans that were carried out benefited the residents (n=37) and/or carers (n=24). The responses of the GPs and the Directors of Nursing to the reviews were overwhelmingly positive. Conclusion: Recommendations arising from multidisciplinary case conferences were carried out to the benefit of patients and carers. Given the support shown by key stakeholders, multidisciplinary conferences should be used more.