930 resultados para Phillips curve
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Injection velocity has been recognized as a key variable in thermoplastic injection molding. Its closed-loop control is, however, difficult due to the complexity of the process dynamic characteristics. The basic requirements of the control system include tracking of a pre-determined injection velocity curve defined in a profile, load rejection and robustness. It is difficult for a conventional control scheme to meet all these requirements. Injection velocity dynamics are first analyzed in this paper. Then a novel double-controller scheme is adopted for the injection velocity control. This scheme allows an independent design of set-point tracking and load rejection and has good system robustness. The implementation of the double-controller scheme for injection velocity control is discussed. Special techniques such as profile transformation and shifting are also introduced to improve the velocity responses. The proposed velocity control has been experimentally demonstrated to be effective for a wide range of processing conditions.
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The World Health Organization identifies road trauma as a major public health issue in every country; most notably among low-to-middle income countries. More than 90% of all road fatalities occur in these countries, although they have only 48% of all registered vehicles [1]. Unprecedented focus has been placed on reducing the global road trauma burden through the United Nations Decade of Action for Road Safety (2011-2020). China is rapidly transitioning from a nation of bicycle riders and pedestrians to one where car ownership and use is increasing. This transition presents important public health, mobility, and safety challenges. Rapid motorisation has resulted in an increased road trauma burden, shouldered disproportionately among the population. Vulnerable road users (bicyclists, pedestrians, and motorcyclists) are of particular concern, representing 70% of all road-related fatalities [1]. Furthermore, those at greatest risk of sustaining a crash-related disability are: male, older, less educated, and earning a lower income [2] and residing in urban areas [3], with higher fatality rates in north-western poorer provinces [3]. Speeding is a key factor in road crashes in China [1, 4] and is one of two risk factors targeted in the Bloomberg Philanthropies-funded Global Road Safety Program operating in two Chinese cities over five year [5] to which the first author has provided expert advice. However, little evidence exists to help understand the factors underpinning speeding behaviour. Previous research conducted by the authors in Beijing and Hangzhou explored personal, social, and legal factors relating to speeding to assist in better understanding the motivations for non-compliance with speed limits. Qualitative and quantitative research findings indicated that speeding is relatively common, including self-reported travel speeds of greater than 30 km/hour above posted speed limits [6], and that the road safety laws and enforcement practices may, in some circumstances, contribute to this [7]. Normative factors were also evident; the role of friends, family members and driving instructors were influential. Additionally, using social networks to attempt to avoid detection and penalty was reported, thereby potentially reinforcing community perceptions that speeding is acceptable [8, 9]. The authors established strong collaborative links with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Zhejiang Police College to conduct this research. The first author has worked in both institutions for extended time periods and recognises that research must include an understanding of culturally-relevant issues if road safety is to improve in China. Future collaborations to assist in enhancing our understanding of such issues are welcomed. References [1] World Health Organization. (2009). Global status report on road safety: Time for action; Geneva. [2] Chen, H., Du, W., & Li, N. (2013). The socioeconomic inequality in traffic-related disability among Chinese adults: the application of concentration index. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 55(101-106). [3] Wang, S. Y., Li, Y. H., Chi, G. B., Xiao, S. Y., Ozanne-Smith, J., Stevenson, M., & Phillips, M. (2008). Injury-related fatalities in China: an under-recognised public-health problem. The Lancet (British edition), 372(9651), 1765-1773. [4] He, J., King, M. J., Watson, B., Rakotonirainy, A., & Fleiter, J. J. (2013). Speed enforcement in China: National, provincial and city initiatives and their success. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 50, 282-288. [5] Bhalla, K., Li, Q., Duan, L., Wang, Y., Bishai, D., & Hyder, A. A. (2013). The prevalence of speeding and drink driving in two cities in China: a mid project evaluation of ongoing road safety interventions. Injury, 44, 49-56. doi:10.1016/S0020-1383(13)70213-4. [6] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., & Lennon, A. (2013). Awareness of risky behaviour among Chinese drivers. Peer-reviewed paper presented at 23rd Canadian Multidisciplinary Road Safety Conference, Montréal, Québec. [7] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Lennon, A., King, M. J., & Shi, K. (2009). Speeding in Australia and China: A comparison of the influence of legal sanctions and enforcement practices on car drivers. Peer-reviewd paper presented at Australasian Road Safety Research Policing Education Conference, Sydney. [8] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Lennon, A., King, M. J., & Shi, K. (2011). Social influences on drivers in China. Journal of the Australasian College of Road Safety, 22(2), 29-36. [9] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Guan, M. Q., Ding, J. Y., & Xu, C. (2013). Characteristics of Chinese Drivers Attending a Mandatory Training Course Following Licence Suspension. Peer-reviewed paper presented at Road Safety on Four Continents, Beijing, China.
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We recorded echolocation calls from 14 sympatric species of bat in Britain. Once digitised, one temporal and four spectral features were measured from each call. The frequency-time course of each call was approximated by fitting eight mathematical functions, and the goodness of fit, represented by the mean-squared error, was calculated. Measurements were taken using an automated process that extracted a single call from background noise and measured all variables without intervention. Two species of Rhinolophus were easily identified from call duration and spectral measurements. For the remaining 12 species, discriminant function analysis and multilayer back-propagation perceptrons were used to classify calls to species level. Analyses were carried out with and without the inclusion of curve-fitting data to evaluate its usefulness in distinguishing among species. Discriminant function analysis achieved an overall correct classification rate of 79% with curve-fitting data included, while an artificial neural network achieved 87%. The removal of curve-fitting data improved the performance of the discriminant function analysis by 2 %, while the performance of a perceptron decreased by 2 %. However, an increase in correct identification rates when curve-fitting information was included was not found for all species. The use of a hierarchical classification system, whereby calls were first classified to genus level and then to species level, had little effect on correct classification rates by discriminant function analysis but did improve rates achieved by perceptrons. This is the first published study to use artificial neural networks to classify the echolocation calls of bats to species level. Our findings are discussed in terms of recent advances in recording and analysis technologies, and are related to factors causing convergence and divergence of echolocation call design in bats.
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We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy. We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.
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We propose expected attainable discrimination (EAD) as a measure to select discrete valued features for reliable discrimination between two classes of data. EAD is an average of the area under the ROC curves obtained when a simple histogram probability density model is trained and tested on many random partitions of a data set. EAD can be incorporated into various stepwise search methods to determine promising subsets of features, particularly when misclassification costs are difficult or impossible to specify. Experimental application to the problem of risk prediction in pregnancy is described.
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Objective To examine the clinical utility of the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD) in nursing homes. Setting 14 nursing homes in Sydney and Brisbane, Australia. Participants 92 residents with a mean age of 85 years. Measurements Consenting residents were assessed by care staff for depression using the CSDD as part of their routine assessment. Specialist clinicians conducted assessment of depression using the Semi-structured Clinical Diagnostic Interview for DSM-IV-TR Axis I Disorders for residents without dementia or the Provisional Diagnostic Criteria for Depression in Alzheimer Disease for residents with dementia to establish expert clinical diagnoses of depression. The diagnostic performance of the staff completed CSDD was analyzed against expert diagnosis using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results The CSDD showed low diagnostic accuracy, with areas under the ROC curve being 0.69, 0.68 and 0.70 for the total sample, residents with dementia and residents without dementia, respectively. At the standard CSDD cutoff score, the sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 59% for the total sample, 69% and 57% for residents with dementia, and 75% and 61% for residents without dementia. The Youden index (for optimizing cut-points) suggested different depression cutoff scores for residents with and without dementia. Conclusion When administered by nursing home staff the clinical utility of the CSDD is highly questionable in identifying depression. The complexity of the scale, the time required for collecting relevant information, and staff skills and knowledge of assessing depression in older people must be considered when using the CSDD in nursing homes.
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BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.
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BACKGROUND Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach. METHODS We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004. FINDINGS 13,902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16,328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously. INTERPRETATION This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results.
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Interactions between the anti-carcinogens, bendamustine (BDM) and dexamethasone (DXM), with bovine serum albumin (BSA) were investigated with the use of fluorescence and UV–vis spectroscopies under pseudo-physiological conditions (Tris–HCl buffer, pH 7.4). The static mechanism was responsible for the fluorescence quenching during the interactions; the binding formation constant of the BSA–BDM complex and the binding number were 5.14 × 105 L mol−1 and 1.0, respectively. Spectroscopic studies for the formation of BDM–BSA complex were interpreted with the use of multivariate curve resolution – alternating least squares (MCR–ALS), which supported the complex formation. The BSA samples treated with site markers (warfarin – site I and ibuprofen – site II) were reacted separately with BDM and DXM; while both anti-carcinogens bound to site I, the binding constants suggested that DXM formed a more stable complex. Relative concentration profiles and the fluorescence spectra associated with BDM, DXM and BSA, were recovered simultaneously from the full fluorescence excitation–emission data with the use of the parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) method. The results confirmed that on addition of DXM to the BDM–BSA complex, the BDM was replaced and the DXM–BSA complex formed; free BDM was released. This finding may have consequences for the transport of these drugs during any anti-cancer treatment.
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We recorded echolocation calls from 14 sympatric species of bat in Britain. Once digitised, one temporal and four spectral features were measured from each call. The frequency-time course of each call was approximated by fitting eight mathematical functions, and the goodness of fit, represented by the mean-squared error, was calculated. Measurements were taken using an automated process that extracted a single call from background noise and measured all variables without intervention. Two species of Rhinolophus were easily identified from call duration and spectral measurements. For the remaining 12 species, discriminant function analysis and multilayer back-propagation perceptrons were used to classify calls to species level. Analyses were carried out with and without the inclusion of curve-fitting data to evaluate its usefulness in distinguishing among species. Discriminant function analysis achieved an overall correct classification rate of 79% with curve-fitting data included, while an artificial neural network achieved 87%. The removal of curve-fitting data improved the performance of the discriminant function analysis by 2 %, while the performance of a perceptron decreased by 2 %. However, an increase in correct identification rates when curve-fitting information was included was not found for all species. The use of a hierarchical classification system, whereby calls were first classified to genus level and then to species level, had little effect on correct classification rates by discriminant function analysis but did improve rates achieved by perceptrons. This is the first published study to use artificial neural networks to classify the echolocation calls of bats to species level. Our findings are discussed in terms of recent advances in recording and analysis technologies, and are related to factors causing convergence and divergence of echolocation call design in bats.
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Drying has been extensively used as a food preservation procedure. The longer life attained by drying is however accompanied by huge energy consumption and deterioration of quality. Moisture diffusivity is an important factor that is considered essential to understand for design, analysis, and optimization of drying processes for food and other materials. Without an accurate value of moisture diffusivity, drying kinetics, energy consumption, quality attributes such as shrinkage, texture, and microstructure cannot be predicted properly. However, moisture diffusivities differ due to variation of composition and microstructure of foodstuff and drying variables. For a particular food, it changes with many factors including moisture content, water holding capacity, process variables and physiochemical attributes of food. Published information on moisture diffusivities of banana is inadequate and sometimes inconsistent due to lack of precise repeatable analysis techniques. In this work, the effective moisture diffusivity of banana was determined by Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA), which ensures precise measurements and reproduction of experiments. A TGA Q500 V20.13 Build 39 was deployed to obtain the drying curve of the food material. It was found that effective moisture diffusivity ranged from 6.63 x10-10 to 1.03 x10-9 and 1.34 x10-10 to 6.60 x10-10 for isothermal at 70 0C and non-isothermal process respectively.These values are consistent with the value of moisture diffusivity found in the literature.
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If resilience is a hallmark of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people’s survival beyond centuries of colonisation and oppression, brandishing the pen – or any its modern equivalents– can be understood as key resilience and survival strategy. Writing ourselves into contemporary and future existence is a complex act of cultural translation; it involves a speaking to others through a technology from a foreign culture. Subsequently, Indigenous writing is born into complexity.
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This study evaluated the complexity of calcium ion exchange with sodium exchanged weak acid cation resin (DOW MAC-3). Exchange equilibria recorded for a range of different solution normalities revealed profiles which were represented by conventional “L” or “H” type isotherms at low values of equilibrium concentration (Ce) of calcium ions, plus a superimposed region of increasing calcium uptake was observed at high Ce values. The loading of calcium ions was determined to be ca. 53.5 to 58.7 g/kg of resin when modelling only the sorption curve created at low Ce values,which exhibited a well-defined plateau. The calculated calcium ion loading capacity for DOWMAC-3 resin appeared to correlate with the manufacturer's recommendation. The phenomenon of super equivalent ion exchange (SEIX) was observed when the “driving force” for the exchange process was increased in excess of 2.25 mmol calcium ions per gram of resin in the starting solution. This latter event was explained in terms of displacement of sodium ions from sodium hydroxide solution which remained in the resin bead following the initial conversion of the as supplied “H+” exchanged resin sites to the “Na+” version required for softening studies. Evidence for hydrolysis of a small fraction of the sites on the sodium exchanged resin surface was noted. The importance of carefully choosing experimental parameters was discussed especially in relation to application of the Langmuir–Vageler expression. This latter model which compared the ratio of the initial calcium ion concentration in solution to resin mass, versus final equilibrium loading of the calcium ions on the resin; was discovered to be an excellent means of identifying the progress of the calcium–sodium ion exchange process. Moreover, the Langmuir–Vageler model facilitated standardization of various calcium–sodium ion exchange experiments which allowed systematic experimental design.
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Exogenous adenosine causes a monophasic dilation of the coronary vessels in paced, perfused rat heart preparations. Because levels of endogenous adenosine in paced hearts may mask the presence of high potency adenosine receptors, we have developed a method to measure coronary vascular responses in a potassium-arrested heart. Hearts from adult male, Wistar rats were perfused at a constant flow rate of 10 mL/min in the nonrecirculating, Langendorff mode, using Krebs-Henseleit buffer. After 30 min, coronary perfusion pressure was 44 +/- 1 mmHg (mean +/- SEM). Hearts were then perfused with a modified Krebs-Henseleit buffer containing 35 mM potassium. Coronary perfusion pressure increased by 84 +/- 3 mmHg. Adenosine-induced reductions in coronary perfusion pressure were expressed as a percentage of the maximal increase in pressure produced by modified Krebs-Henseleit buffer from the equilibration level. A concentration-response curve for adenosine (n = 6) was biphasic and best described by the presence of two adenosine receptors, with negative log EC50 values of 8.8 +/- 0.3 and 4.3 +/- 0.1, representing 29 +/- 3 and 71 +/- 3%, respectively, of the observed response. Interstitial adenosine sampled by microdialysis during potassium arrest was 25% of the concentration found in paced hearts. Endogenous adenosine in nonarrested hearts may obscure the biphasic response of the coronary vessels to adenosine.
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Objectives Shift workers are prone to obesity and associated co-morbidities such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Sleep restriction associated with shift work results in dramatic endocrine and metabolic effects that predispose shift workers to these adverse health consequences. While sleep restriction has been associated with increased caloric intake, food preference may also play a key role in weight gain associated with shift work. This study examined the impact of an overnight simulated night shift on food preference. Methods Sixteen participants [mean 20.1, standard deviation (SD) 1.4 years; 8 women] underwent a simulated night shift and control condition in a counterbalanced order. On the following morning, participants were provided an opportunity for breakfast that included high- and low-fat food options (mean 64.8% and 6.4% fat, respectively). Results Participants ate significantly more high-fat breakfast items after the simulated night shift than after the control condition [167.3, standard error of the mean (SEM 28.7) g versus 211.4 (SEM 35.6) g; P=0.012]. The preference for high-fat food was apparent among the majority of individuals following the simulated night shift (81%), but not for the control condition (31%). Shift work and control conditions did not differ, however, in the total amount of food or calories consumed. Conclusions A simulated night shift leads to preference for high-fat food during a subsequent breakfast opportunity. These results suggest that food choice may contribute to weight-related chronic health problems commonly seen among night shift workers.