Evidence for solar wind modulation of lightning

The response of lightning rates over Europe to arrival of high speed solar wind streams at Earth is investigated using a superposed epoch analysis. Fast solar wind stream arrival is determined from modulation of the solar wind V y component, measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft. Lightning rate changes around these event times are determined from the very low frequency arrival time difference (ATD) system of the UK Met Office. Arrival of high speed streams at Earth is found to be preceded by a decrease in total solar irradiance and an increase in sunspot number and Mg II emissions. These are consistent with the high speed stream's source being co-located with an active region appearing on the Eastern solar limb and rotating at the 27 d period of the Sun. Arrival of the high speed stream at Earth also coincides with a small (~1%) but rapid decrease in galactic cosmic ray flux, a moderate (~6%) increase in lower energy solar energetic protons (SEPs), and a substantial, statistically significant increase in lightning rates. These changes persist for around 40 d in all three quantities. The lightning rate increase is corroborated by an increase in the total number of thunder days observed by UK Met stations, again persisting for around 40 d after the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream. This result appears to contradict earlier studies that found an anti-correlation between sunspot number and thunder days over solar cycle timescales. The increase in lightning rates and thunder days that we observe coincides with an increased flux of SEPs which, while not being detected at ground level, nevertheless penetrate the atmosphere to tropospheric altitudes. This effect could be further amplified by an increase in mean lightning stroke intensity that brings more strokes above the detection threshold of the ATD system. In order to remove any potential seasonal bias the analysis was repeated for daily solar wind triggers occurring during the summer months (June to August). Though this reduced the number of solar wind triggers to 32, the response in both lightning and thunder day data remained statistically significant. This modulation of lightning by regular and predictable solar wind events may be beneficial to medium range forecasting of hazardous weather.

An aggregated wind power generation model based on MERRA reanalysis data: MATLAB model and example data for the April 2014 wind farm distribution of Great Britain.

The MATLAB model is contained within the compressed folders (versions are available as .zip and .tgz). This model uses MERRA reanalysis data (>34 years available) to estimate the hourly aggregated wind power generation for a predefined (fixed) distribution of wind farms. A ready made example is included for the wind farm distribution of Great Britain, April 2014 ("CF.dat"). This consists of an hourly time series of GB-total capacity factor spanning the period 1980-2013 inclusive. Given the global nature of reanalysis data, the model can be applied to any specified distribution of wind farms in any region of the world. Users are, however, strongly advised to bear in mind the limitations of reanalysis data when using this model/data. This is discussed in our paper: Cannon, Brayshaw, Methven, Coker, Lenaghan. "Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: a 33 year case study in Great Britain". Submitted to Renewable Energy in March, 2014. Additional information about the model is contained in the model code itself, in the accompanying ReadMe file, and on our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/

Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics : a 33 year case study in Great Britain

With a rapidly increasing fraction of electricity generation being sourced from wind, extreme wind power generation events such as prolonged periods of low (or high) generation and ramps in generation, are a growing concern for the efficient and secure operation of national power systems. As extreme events occur infrequently, long and reliable meteorological records are required to accurately estimate their characteristics. Recent publications have begun to investigate the use of global meteorological “reanalysis” data sets for power system applications, many of which focus on long-term average statistics such as monthly-mean generation. Here we demonstrate that reanalysis data can also be used to estimate the frequency of relatively short-lived extreme events (including ramping on sub-daily time scales). Verification against 328 surface observation stations across the United Kingdom suggests that near-surface wind variability over spatiotemporal scales greater than around 300 km and 6 h can be faithfully reproduced using reanalysis, with no need for costly dynamical downscaling. A case study is presented in which a state-of-the-art, 33 year reanalysis data set (MERRA, from NASA-GMAO), is used to construct an hourly time series of nationally-aggregated wind power generation in Great Britain (GB), assuming a fixed, modern distribution of wind farms. The resultant generation estimates are highly correlated with recorded data from National Grid in the recent period, both for instantaneous hourly values and for variability over time intervals greater than around 6 h. This 33 year time series is then used to quantify the frequency with which different extreme GB-wide wind power generation events occur, as well as their seasonal and inter-annual variability. Several novel insights into the nature of extreme wind power generation events are described, including (i) that the number of prolonged low or high generation events is well approximated by a Poission-like random process, and (ii) whilst in general there is large seasonal variability, the magnitude of the most extreme ramps is similar in both summer and winter. An up-to-date version of the GB case study data as well as the underlying model are freely available for download from our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/.

Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling functions on timescales of 1 day to 1 year

There are no direct observational methods for determining the total rate at which energy is extracted from the solar wind by the magnetosphere. In the absence of such a direct measurement, alternative means of estimating the energy available to drive the magnetospheric system have been developed using different ionospheric and magnetospheric indices as proxies for energy consumption and dissipation and thus the input. The so-called coupling functions are constructed from the parameters of the interplanetary medium, as either theoretical or empirical estimates of energy transfer, and the effectiveness of these coupling functions has been evaluated in terms of their correlation with the chosen index. A number of coupling functions have been studied in the past with various criteria governing event selection and timescale. The present paper contains an exhaustive survey of the correlation between geomagnetic activity and the near-Earth solar wind and two of the planetary indices at a wide variety of timescales. Various combinations of interplanetary parameters are evaluated with careful allowance for the effects of data gaps in the interplanetary data. We show that the theoretical coupling, P�, function first proposed by Vasyliunas et al. is superior at all timescales from 1-day to 1-year.

Dawn-dusk asymmetry in particles of solar wind origin within the magnetosphere

Solar wind/magnetosheath plasma in the magnetosphere can be identified using a component that has a higher charge state, lower density and, at least soon after their entry into the magnetosphere, lower energy than plasma from a terrestrial source. We survey here observations taken over 3 years of He2+ ions made by the Magnetospheric Ion Composition Sensor (MICS) of the Charge and Mass Mgnetospheric Ion Composition Experiment (CAMMICE) instrument aboard POLAR. The occurrence probability of these solar wind ions is then plotted as a function of Magnetic Local Time (MLT) and invariant latitude (3) for various energy ranges. For all energies observed by MICS (1.8–21.4 keV) and all solar wind conditions, the occurrence probabilities peaked around the cusp region and along the dawn flank. The solar wind conditions were filtered to see if this dawnward asymmetry is controlled by the Svalgaard-Mansurov effect (and so depends on the BY component of the interplanetary magnetic field, IMF) or by Fermi acceleration of He2+ at the bow shock (and so depends on the IMF ratio BX/BY ). It is shown that the asymmetry remained persistently on the dawn flank, suggesting it was not due to effects associated with direct entry into the magnetosphere. This asymmetry, with enhanced fluxes on the dawn flank, persisted for lower energy ions (below a “cross-over” energy of about 23 keV) but reversed sense to give higher fluxes on the dusk flank at higher energies. This can be explained by the competing effects of gradient/curvature drifts and the convection electric field on ions that are convecting sunward on re-closed field lines. The lower-energy He2+ ions E × B drift dawnwards as they move earthward, whereas the higher energy ions curvature/gradient drift towards dusk. The convection electric field in the tail is weaker for northward IMF. Ions then need less energy to drift to the dusk flank, so that the cross-over energy, at which the asymmetry changes sense, is reduced.

Energy and pitch-angle dispersions of LLBL/cusp ions seen at middle altitudes: predictions by the open magnetosphere model

Numerical simulations are presented of the ion distribution functions seen by middle-altitude spacecraft in the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) and cusp regions when reconnection is, or has recently been, taking place at the equatorial magnetopause. From the evolution of the distribution function with time elapsed since the field line was opened, both the observed energy/observation-time and pitch-angle/energy dispersions are well reproduced. Distribution functions showing a mixture of magnetosheath and magnetospheric ions, often thought to be a signature of the LLBL, are found on newly opened field lines as a natural consequence of the magnetopause effects on the ions and their flight times. In addition, it is shown that the extent of the source region of the magnetosheath ions that are detected by a satellite is a function of the sensitivity of the ion instrument . If the instrument one-count level is high (and/or solar-wind densities are low), the cusp ion precipitation detected comes from a localised region of the mid-latitude magnetopause (around the magnetic cusp), even though the reconnection takes place at the equatorial magnetopause. However, if the instrument sensitivity is high enough, then ions injected from a large segment of the dayside magnetosphere (in the relevant hemisphere) will be detected in the cusp. Ion precipitation classed as LLBL is shown to arise from the low-latitude magnetopause, irrespective of the instrument sensitivity. Adoption of threshold flux definitions has the same effect as instrument sensitivity in artificially restricting the apparent source region.

Midday auroral breakup events and related energy and momentum transfer from the magnetosheath

Combined observations by meridian-scanning photometers, all-sky auroral TV camera and the EISCAT radar permitted a detailed analysis of the temporal and spatial development of the midday auroral breakup phenomenon and the related ionospheric ion flow pattern within the 71°–75° invariant latitude radar field of view. The radar data revealed dominating northward and westward ion drifts, of magnitudes close to the corresponding velocities of the discrete, transient auroral forms, during the two different events reported here, characterized by IMF |BY/BZ| < 1 and > 2, respectively (IMF BZ between −8 and −3 nT and BY > 0). The spatial scales of the discrete optical events were ∼50 km in latitude by ∼500 km in longitude, and their lifetimes were less than 10 min. Electric potential enhancements with peak values in the 30–50 kV range are inferred along the discrete arc in the IMF |BY/BZ| < 1 case from the optical data and across the latitudinal extent of the radar field of view in the |BY/BZ| > 2 case. Joule heat dissipation rates in the maximum phase of the discrete structures of ∼ 100 ergs cm−2 s−1 (0.1 W m−2) are estimated from the photometer intensities and the ion drift data. These observations combined with the additional characteristics of the events, documented here and in several recent studies (i.e., their quasi-periodic nature, their motion pattern relative to the persistent cusp or cleft auroral arc, the strong relationship with the interplanetary magnetic field and the associated ion drift/E field events and ground magnetic signatures), are considered to be strong evidence in favour of a transient, intermittent reconnection process at the dayside magnetopause and associated energy and momentum transfer to the ionosphere in the polar cusp and cleft regions. The filamentary spatial structure and the spectral characteristics of the optical signature indicate associated localized ˜1-kV potential drops between the magnetopause and the ionosphere during the most intense auroral events. The duration of the events compares well with the predicted characteristic times of momentum transfer to the ionosphere associated with the flux transfer event-related current tubes. It is suggested that, after this 2–10 min interval, the sheath particles can no longer reach the ionosphere down the open flux tube, due to the subsequent super-Alfvénic flow along the magnetopause, conductivities are lower and much less momentum is extracted from the solar wind by the ionosphere. The recurrence time (3–15 min) and the local time distribution (∼0900–1500 MLT) of the dayside auroral breakup events, combined with the above information, indicate the important roles of transient magnetopause reconnection and the polar cusp and cleft regions in the transfer of momentum and energy between the solar wind and the magnetosphere.

Low-energy ion flows into the magnetosphere

Ion flows from the ionosphere into the magnetosphere fall into two main categories: cold (<1eV), “classical” polar wind and heated (>1eV), suprathermal ion outflows. A wealth of new understanding of these outflows has resulted from the Dynamics Explorer Mission. This review describes both the confirmation of the predicted classical polar wind as well as the revelation of a great variety of low-energy suprathermal outflows: the cleft ion fountain, the nightside auroral fountaion (X-events, toroids and field-aligned flows) and polar cap outflows. The main emphasis is placed on flows at energies below about 50eV, observed by the Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer (RIMS) on board the Dynamics Explorer 1 satellite; limited comparisons are made with results from other instruments which sample different energy ranges.

The importance of accurate wind resource assessment for evaluating the economic viability of small wind turbines

The techno-economic performance of a small wind turbine is very sensitive to the available wind resource. However, due to financial and practical constraints installers rely on low resolution wind speed databases to assess a potential site. This study investigates whether the two site assessment tools currently used in the UK, NOABL or the Energy Saving Trust wind speed estimator, are accurate enough to estimate the techno-economic performance of a small wind turbine. Both the tools tend to overestimate the wind speed, with a mean error of 23% and 18% for the NOABL and Energy Saving Trust tool respectively. A techno-economic assessment of 33 small wind turbines at each site has shown that these errors can have a significant impact on the estimated load factor of an installation. Consequently, site/turbine combinations which are not economically viable can be predicted to be viable. Furthermore, both models tend to underestimate the wind resource at relatively high wind speed sites, this can lead to missed opportunities as economically viable turbine/site combinations are predicted to be non-viable. These results show that a better understanding of the local wind resource is a required to make small wind turbines a viable technology in the UK.

Challenges in quantifying wind generation's contribution to securing peak demand

Wind generation's contribution to supporting peak electricity demand is one of the key questions in wind integration studies. Differently from conventional units, the available outputs of different wind farms cannot be approximated as being statistically independent, and hence near-zero wind output is possible across an entire power system. This paper will review the risk model structures currently used to assess wind's capacity value, along with discussion of the resulting data requirements. A central theme is the benefits from performing statistical estimation of the joint distribution for demand and available wind capacity, focusing attention on uncertainties due to limited histories of wind and demand data; examination of Great Britain data from the last 25 years shows that the data requirements are greater than generally thought. A discussion is therefore presented into how analysis of the types of weather system which have historically driven extreme electricity demands can help to deliver robust insights into wind's contribution to supporting demand, even in the face of such data limitations. The role of the form of the probability distribution for available conventional capacity in driving wind capacity credit results is also discussed.

SIMULATIONS OF WINDS OF WEAK-LINED T TAURI STARS: THE MAGNETIC FIELD GEOMETRY AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE WIND ON GIANT PLANET MIGRATION

By means of numerical simulations, we investigate magnetized stellar winds of pre-main-sequence stars. In particular, we analyze under which circumstances these stars will present elongated magnetic features (e.g., helmet streamers, slingshot prominences, etc). We focus on weak-lined T Tauri stars, as the presence of the tenuous accretion disk is not expected to have strong influence on the structure of the stellar wind. We show that the plasma-beta parameter (the ratio of thermal to magnetic energy densities) is a decisive factor in defining the magnetic configuration of the stellar wind. Using initial parameters within the observed range for these stars, we show that the coronal magnetic field configuration can vary between a dipole-like configuration and a configuration with strong collimated polar lines and closed streamers at the equator (multicomponent configuration for the magnetic field). We show that elongated magnetic features will only be present if the plasma-beta parameter at the coronal base is beta(0) << 1. Using our self-consistent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics model, we estimate for these stellar winds the timescale of planet migration due to drag forces exerted by the stellar wind on a hot-Jupiter. In contrast to the findings of Lovelace et al., who estimated such timescales using the Weber and Davis model, our model suggests that the stellar wind of these multicomponent coronae are not expected to have significant influence on hot-Jupiters migration. Further simulations are necessary to investigate this result under more intense surface magnetic field strengths (similar to 2-3 kG) and higher coronal base densities, as well as in a tilted stellar magnetosphere.

SURFACE ALFVEN WAVE DAMPING IN A THREE-DIMENSIONAL SIMULATION OF THE SOLAR WIND

Here we investigate the contribution of surface Alfven wave damping to the heating of the solar wind in minima conditions. These waves are present in the regions of strong inhomogeneities in density or magnetic field (e.g., the border between open and closed magnetic field lines). Using a three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model, we calculate the surface Alfven wave damping contribution between 1 and 4 R(circle dot) (solar radii), the region of interest for both acceleration and coronal heating. We consider waves with frequencies lower than those that are damped in the chromosphere and on the order of those dominating the heliosphere: 3 x 10(-6) to 10(-1) Hz. In the region between open and closed field lines, within a few R(circle dot) of the surface, no other major source of damping has been suggested for the low frequency waves we consider here. This work is the first to study surface Alfven waves in a 3D environment without assuming a priori a geometry of field lines or magnetic and density profiles. We demonstrate that projection effects from the plane of the sky to 3D are significant in the calculation of field line expansion. We determine that waves with frequencies >2.8 x 10(-4) Hz are damped between 1 and 4 R(circle dot). In quiet-Sun regions, surface Alfven waves are damped at further distances compared to active regions, thus carrying additional wave energy into the corona. We compare the surface Alfven wave contribution to the heating by a variable polytropic index and find it as an order of magnitude larger than needed for quiet-Sun regions. For active regions, the contribution to the heating is 20%. As it has been argued that a variable gamma acts as turbulence, our results indicate that surface Alfven wave damping is comparable to turbulence in the lower corona. This damping mechanism should be included self-consistently as an energy driver for the wind in global MHD models.

The decline of the world`s energy intensity

Energy intensity of the total primary energy supply (TPES), total final energy consumption (TFC) and LOSSES in the conversion from TPES to TFC were analyzed for the World, OECD and Rest of the World (ROW) countries. LOSSES increased significantly for all groups of countries due to the increase of electricity production from coal in the period studied (1971-2008). Electricity share final consumption almost doubled, increasing from 8.8% to 17.2% in the period studied. However the energy intensity of LOSSES remained practically constant, which reflects the fact that the efficiency of electricity generation from coal (the main source of electricity) remained practically constant in that period. Despite the attractiveness of end-use devices running on electricity such as computers, which is typical of modern societies, the CO(2) emissions are bound to increase unless coal is replaced by less carbon emitting sources such as natural gas, renewables and nuclear energy. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Infrared emissions, visible up-conversion, thermoluminescence and defect centres in Er(3)Al(5)O(12) phosphor obtained by solution combustion reaction

The Er(3)Al(5)O(12) phosphor powders were prepared using the solution combustion method. Formation and homogeneity of the Er(3)Al(5)O(12) phosphor powders have been verified by X-ray diffraction and energy-dispersive X-ray analysis respectively. The frequency up-conversion from Er(3)Al(5)O(12) phosphor powder corresponding to the (2)H(9/2) -> (4)I(15/2), (2)H(11/2) -> (4)I(15/2), (4)S(3/2) -> (4)I(15/2), (4)F(9/2) -> (4)I(15/2) and the infrared emission (IR) due to the (4)I(13/2) -> (4)I(15/2) transitions lying at similar to 410, similar to 524, similar to 556, 645-680 nm and at similar to 1.53 mu m respectively upon excitation with a Ti-Sapphire pulsed/CW laser have been reported. The mechanism responsible for the frequency up-conversion and IR emission is discussed in detail. Defect centres induced by radiation were studied using the techniques of thermoluminescence and electron spin resonance. A single glow peak at 430A degrees C is observed and the thermoluminescence results show the presence of a defect center which decays at high temperature. Electron spin resonance studies indicate a center characterized by a g-factor equal to 2.0056 and it is observed that this center is not related to the thermoluminescence peak. A negligibly small concentration of cation and anion vacancies appears to be present in the phosphor in accordance with the earlier theoretical predictions.

NIR to visible up-conversion, infrared luminescence, thermoluminescence and defect centres in Y(2)O(3) : Er phosphor

Er(3+) doped Y(2)O(3) phosphor was prepared by the solution combustion method and characterized using powder x-ray diffraction and energy-dispersive analysis of x-ray mapping studies. Room temperature near infrared (NIR) to green up-conversion (UC) emissions in the region 520-580 nm {((2)H(11/2), (4)S(3/2)) -> (4)I(15/2)} and red UC emissions in the region 650-700 nm ((4)F(9/2) -> (4)I(15/2)) of Er(3+) ions have been observed upon direct excitation to the (4)I(11/2) level using similar to 972 nm laser radiation of nanosecond pulses. The possible mechanisms for the UC processes have been discussed on the basis of the energy level scheme, the pump power dependence as well as based on the temporal evolution. The excited state absorption is observed to be the dominant mechanism for the UC process. Y(2)O(3) : Er exhibits one thermally stimulated luminescence (TSL) peak around 367 degrees C. Electron spin resonance (ESR) studies were carried out to study the defect centres induced in the phosphor by gamma irradiation and also to identify the centres responsible for the TSL peak. Room temperature ESR spectrum of irradiated phosphor appears to be a superposition of at least three distinct centres. One of them (centre I) with principal g-values g(parallel to) = 2.0415 and g(perpendicular to) = 2.0056 is identified as O(2)(-) centre while centre II with an isotropic g-factor 2.0096 is assigned to an F(+)-centre (singly ionized oxygen vacancy). Centre III is also assigned to an F(+)-centre with a small g-factor anisotropy (g(parallel to) = 1.974 and g(perpendicular to) = 1.967). Additional defect centres are observed during thermal annealing experiments and one of them appearing around 330 degrees C grows with the annealing temperature. This centre (assigned to an F(+)-centre) seems to originate from an F-centre (oxygen vacancy with two electrons) and the F-centre appears to correlate with the observed TSL peak in Y2O3 : Er phosphor. The trap depth for this peak has been determined to be 0.97 eV from TSL data.