Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Existential questionings during the pretransplantation period: A qualitative phenomenological study

Background: Transplantation improves quality of life (kidney transplantation), and saves lives (heart, lung or liver transplantation), but few qualitative studies have explored existential questionings before transplantation. Methods: In this phenomenological qualitative study, patients registered for kidney (n¼30), liver (n¼11), lung (n¼15), or heart (n¼15) transplantation participated in a semi-structured interview. Findings: The following aspects were discussed: The dilemma of choice, the evaluation process, the endorsement of the ''good candidate's role'', the modification of objects, time and space perception, the co-existence of life and death, and the challenge of the body integrity and of the person's identity. Transplantation generates paradoxical situations, and challenges the person's life values. Discussion: Anxiety and distress may arise with awareness of existential questionings and the co-existence different worlds' life values. Transplantation further generates a broader societal and ethical debate as how to accompany existential questionings in a pragmatic medical environment.

Potential risk factors for multiple sclerosis in Rio de Janeiro: a case-control study.

PURPOSE. To evaluate potential risk factors for the development of multiple sclerosis in Brazilian patients. METHOD. A case control study was carried out in 81 patients enrolled at the Department of Neurology of the Hospital da Lagoa in Rio de Janeiro, and 81 paired controls. A standardized questionnaire on demographic, social and cultural variables, and medical and family history was used. Statistical analysis was performed using descriptive statistics and conditional logistic regression models with the SPSS for Windows software program. RESULTS. Having standard vaccinations (vaccinations specified by the Brazilian government) (OR=16.2; 95% CI=2.3-115.2), smoking (OR=7.6; 95% CI=2.1-28.2), being single (OR=4.7; 95% CI=1.4-15.6) and eating animal brain (OR=3.4; 95% CI=1.2-9.8) increased the risk of developing MS. CONCLUSIONS. RESULTS of this study may contribute towards better awareness of the epidemiological characteristics of Brazilian patients with multiple sclerosis.

Human Exposure to Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals and Prenatal Risk Factors for Cryptorchidism and Hypospadias: A Nested Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND. Exposure to xenoestrogens during pregnancy may disturb the development and function of male sexual organs. OBJECTIVE. In this study we aimed to determine whether the combined effect of environmental estrogens measured as total effective xenoestrogen burden (TEXB) is a risk factor for male urogenital malformations. METHODS. In a case-control study, nested in a mother-child cohort (n = 702) established at Granada University Hospital, we compared 50 newborns with diagnosis of cryptorchidism and/or hypospadias with 114 boys without malformations matched by gestational age, date of birth, and parity. Controls did not differ from the total cohort in confounding variables. TEXB and levels of 16 organochlorine pesticides were measured in placenta tissues. Characteristics of parents, pregnancy, and birth were gathered by questionnaire. We used conditional and unconditional regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS. TEXB from organohalogenated compounds was detectable in 72% and 54% of case and control placentas, respectively. Compared with controls, cases had an OR for detectable versus non-detectable TEXB of 2.82 (95% CI, 1.10-7.24). More pesticides were detected in cases than in controls (9.34 +/- 3.19 vs. 6.97 +/- 3.93). ORs for cases with detectable levels of pesticides, after adjusting for potential confounders in the conditional regression analysis, were o,p'-DDT (OR = 2.25; 95% CI, 1.03-4.89), p,p'-DDT (OR = 2.63; 95% CI, 1.21-5.72), lindane (OR = 3.38; 95% CI, 1.36-8.38), mirex (OR = 2.85; 95% CI, 1.22-6.66), and endosulfan alpha (OR = 2.19; 95% CI, 0.99-4.82). Engagement of mothers in agriculture (OR = 3.47; 95% CI, 1.33-9.03), fathers' occupational exposure to xenoestrogens (OR = 2.98; 95% CI, 1.11-8.01), and history of previous stillbirths (OR = 4.20; 95% CI, 1.11-16.66) were also associated with risk of malformations. CONCLUSIONS We found an increased risk for male urogenital malformations related to the combined effect of environmental estrogens in placenta.

Intake and home use of olive oil or mixed oils in relation to healthy lifestyles in a Mediterranean population. Findings from the prospective Pizarra study.

Discordances exist in epidemiological studies regarding the association between the intake of nutrients and death and disease. We evaluated the social and health profile of persons who consumed olive oil in a prospective population cohort investigation (Pizarra study) with a 6-year follow-up. A food frequency questionnaire and a 7 d quantitative questionnaire were administered to 538 persons. The type of oil used in food preparation was determined by direct measurement of the fatty acids in samples obtained from the kitchens of the participants at baseline and after follow-up for 6 years. The fatty acid composition of the serum phospholipids was used as an endogenous marker of the type of oil consumed. Total fat intake accounted for a mean 40 % of the energy (at baseline and after follow-up). The concordance in intake of MUFA over the study period was high. The fatty acid composition of the serum phospholipids was significantly associated with the type of oil consumed and with fish intake. The concentration of polar compounds and polymers, indicative of degradation, was greater in oils from the kitchens where sunflower oil or refined olive oil was used, in oils used for deep frying and in oils that had been reused for frying five times or more. Consumption of olive oil was directly associated with educational level. Part of the discordance found in epidemiological studies between diet and health may be due to the handling of oils during food preparation. The intake of olive oil is associated with other healthy habits.

Chikungunya virus outbreak in Kerala, India, 2007: a seroprevalence study

India was affected by a major outbreak of chikungunya fever caused by Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) during 2006-2007. Kerala was the worst affected state during 2007 with a contribution of 55.8% suspected cases in the country. However, except for clinically reported case records, no systematic information is available on infection status of CHIKV in the region. Hence, we carried out a post-epidemic survey to estimate seroprevalence status [immunoglobulin G (IgG)] in the community using commercially available indirect immunofluorescence test. This methodology had been reported to be highly specific and sensitive for CHIKV infection. The study area selected was the worst affected mid-highlands region of Kerala which harbour vast area of rubber plantations. The study evidenced 68% of the population to be seropositive for CHIKV IgG. Males were found more affected than females (χ2 = 9.86; p = 0.002). Among males, prevalence was significantly higher in the age classes 21-30 (χ2 = 5.46; p = 0.019) and 31-40 (χ2 = 5.84; p = 0.016) years. This may be due to high occupational risk of the male population engaged in plantation activities exposed to infective bites of Aedes albopictus. The current study provides an insight into the magnitude of CHIKV outbreak in Kerala.

Complicated intra-abdominal infections in Europe: a comprehensive review of the CIAO study.

The CIAO Study ("Complicated Intra-Abdominal infection Observational" Study) is a multicenter investigation performed in 68 medical institutions throughout Europe over the course of a 6-month observational period (January-June 2012).Patients with either community-acquired or healthcare-associated complicated intra-abdominal infections (IAIs) were included in the study.2,152 patients with a mean age of 53.8 years (range: 4-98 years) were enrolled in the study. 46.3% of the patients were women and 53.7% were men. Intraperitoneal specimens were collected from 62.2% of the enrolled patients, and from these samples, a variety of microorganisms were collectively identified.The overall mortality rate was 7.5% (163/2.152).According to multivariate analysis of the compiled data, several criteria were found to be independent variables predictive of patient mortality, including patient age, the presence of an intestinal non-appendicular source of infection (colonic non-diverticular perforation, complicated diverticulitis, small bowel perforation), a delayed initial intervention (a delay exceeding 24 hours), sepsis and septic shock in the immediate post-operative period, and ICU admission.Given the sweeping geographical distribution of the participating medical centers, the CIAO Study gives an accurate description of the epidemiological, clinical, microbiological, and treatment profiles of complicated intra-abdominal infections (IAIs) throughout Europe.

Do socioeconomic factors shape weight and obesity trajectories over the transition from midlife to old age? Results from the French GAZEL cohort study

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a contemporary epidemic that does not affect all age groups and sections of society equally. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to examine socioeconomic differences in trajectories of body mass index (BMI; in kg/m(2)) and obesity between the ages of 45 and 65 y. DESIGN: A total of 13,297 men and 4532 women from the French GAZEL (Gaz de France Electricité de France) cohort study reported their height in 1990 and their weight annually over the subsequent 18 y. Changes in BMI and obesity between ages 45 and 49 y, 50 and 54 y, 55 and 59 y, and 60 and 65 y as a function of education and occupational position (at age 35 y) were modeled by using linear mixed models and generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: BMI and obesity rates increased between the ages of 45 and 65 y. In men, BMI was higher in unskilled workers than in managers at age 45 y; this difference in BMI increased from 0.82 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.99) at 45 y to 1.06 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.27) at 65 y. Men with a primary school education compared with those with a high school degree at age 45 y had a 0.75 (95% CI: 0.51, 1.00) higher BMI, and this difference increased to 1.32 (95% CI: 1.03,1.62) at age 65 y. Obesity rates were 3.35% and 7.68% at age 45 y and 9.52% and 18.10% at age 65 y in managers and unskilled workers, respectively; the difference in obesity increased by 4.25% (95% CI: 1.87, 6.52). A similar trend was observed in women. Conclusions: Weight continues to increase in the transition between midlife and old age; this increase is greater in lower socioeconomic groups.

Respiratory infection in congenital cardiac disease. Hospitalizations in young children in Spain during 2004 and 2005: the CIVIC Epidemiologic Study.

OBJECTIVES To evaluate the rate of hospitalization for acute respiratory tract infection in children less than 24 months with haemodynamically significant congenital cardiac disease, and to describe associated risk factors, preventive measures, aetiology, and clinical course. MATERIALS AND METHODS We followed 760 subjects from October 2004 through April 2005 in an epidemiological, multicentric, observational, follow-up, prospective study involving 53 Spanish hospitals. RESULTS Of our cohort, 79 patients (10.4%, 95% CI: 8.2%-12.6%) required a total of 105 admissions to hospital related to respiratory infections. The incidence rate was 21.4 new admissions per 1000 patients-months. Significant associated risk factors for hospitalization included, with odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals shown in parentheses: 22q11 deletion (8.2, 2.5-26.3), weight below the 10th centile (5.2, 1.6-17.4), previous respiratory disease (4.5, 2.3-8.6), incomplete immunoprophylaxis against respiratory syncytial virus (2.2, 1.2-3.9), trisomy 21 (2.1, 1.1-4.2), cardiopulmonary bypass (2.0, 1.1-3.4), and siblings aged less than 11 years old (1.7, 1.1-2.9). Bronchiolitis (51.4%), upper respiratory tract infections (25.7%), and pneumonia (20%) were the main diagnoses. An infectious agent was found in 37 cases (35.2%): respiratory syncytial virus in 25, Streptococcus pneumoniae in 5, and Haemophilus influenzae in 4. The odds ratio for hospitalization due to infection by the respiratory syncytial virus increases by 3.05 (95% CI: 2.14 to 4.35) in patients with incomplete prophylaxis. The median length of hospitalization was 7 days. In 18 patients (17.1%), the clinical course of respiratory infection was complicated and 2 died. CONCLUSIONS Hospital admissions for respiratory infection in young children with haemodynamically significant congenital cardiac disease are mainly associated with non-cardiac conditions, which may be genetic, malnutrition, or respiratory, and to cardiopulmonary bypass. Respiratory syncytial virus was the most commonly identified infectious agent. Incomplete immunoprophylaxis against the virus increased the risk of hospitalization.

Virulence profiles of bacteremic extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli: association with epidemiological and clinical features.

There is scarce data about the importance of phylogroups and virulence factors (VF) in bloodstream infections (BSI) caused by extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBLEC). A prospective multicenter Spanish cohort including 191 cases of BSI due to ESBLEC was studied. Phylogroups and 25 VF genes were investigated by PCR. ESBLEC were classified into clusters according to their virulence profiles. The association of phylogropus, VF, and clusters with epidemiological features were studied using multivariate analysis. Overall, 57.6%, 26.7%, and 15.7% of isolates belonged to A/B1, D and B2 phylogroups, respectively. By multivariate analysis (adjusted OR [95% CI]), virulence cluster C2 was independently associated with urinary tract source (5.05 [0.96-25.48]); cluster C4 with sources other than urinary of biliary tract (2.89 [1.05-7.93]), and cluster C5 with BSI in non-predisposed patients (2.80 [0.99-7.93]). Isolates producing CTX-M-9 group ESBLs and from phylogroup D predominated among cluster C2 and C5, while CTX-M-1 group of ESBL and phylogroup B2 predominantes among C4 isolates. These results suggest that host factors and previous antimicrobial use were more important than phylogroup or specific VF in the occurrence of BSI due to ESBLEC. However, some associations between virulence clusters and some specific epidemiological features were found.

Identification of clinical, epidemiological and laboratory risk factors for leprosy reactions during and after multidrug therapy

This cross-sectional retrospective study evaluated 440 leprosy patients; 57% (251/440) had leprosy reactions during and/or after multidrug therapy, 80.5% (202/251) of whom presented with multibacillary leprosy. At diagnosis, positive bacterial index (BI) [odds ratio (OR) = 6.39; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.1-10.1)] or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) (OR = 9.15; 95% CI: 5.4-15.5) in skin smears, anti-phenolic glycolipid-1 (anti-PGL-1) ELISA (OR = 4.77; 95% CI: 2.9-7.9), leucocytosis (OR = 9.97; 95% CI: 3.9-25.7), thrombocytopenia (OR = 5.72; 95% CI: 2.3-14.0) and elevated lactate dehydrogenase (OR = 2.38; 95% CI: 1.4-4.0) were potential markers for the development of reactions during treatment. After treatment, positive BI (OR = 8.47; 95% CI: 4.7-15.3) and PCR (OR = 6.46; 95% CI: 3.4-12.3) in skin smears, anti-PGL-1 ELISA (OR = 2.25; 95% CI: 1.3-3.9), anaemia (OR = 2.36; 95% CI: 1.2-4.5), leucocytosis (OR = 4.14; 95% CI: 1.5-11.6) and thrombocytopenia (OR = 3.70; 95% CI: 1.3-2.2) were risk factors for the occurrence of reactions during the study period. The identification of groups with an increased risk for developing reactions will allow for the timely development of a treatment plan to prevent nerve damage and, therefore, the appearance of the disabling sequelae associated with the stigma of leprosy.

Morbidity of Chagas heart disease in the microregion of Rio Negro, Amazonian Brazil: a case-control study

A case-control study on the morbidity of Chagas heart disease was carried out in the municipality of Barcelos in the microregion of the Rio Negro, state of Amazonas. One hundred and six individuals, who were serologically positive for Trypanosoma cruzi infection, as confirmed by at least two techniques with different principles, were matched according to age and sex with an equal number of seronegative individuals. The cases and controls were evaluated using an epidemiological questionnaire and clinical, electrocardiograph and echocardiograph examinations. In the seroepidemiological evaluation, 62% of the interviewees recognised triatomines and most of them confirmed that they had seen these insects in the piassava plantations of the riverside communities of the Negro River tributaries. Of the seropositive patients, 25.8% affirmed that they had been stung by the triatomines and 11.7% denied having been stung. The principal clinical manifestations of the seropositive individuals were palpitations, chest pain and dyspnoea upon effort. Cardiac auscultation revealed extrasystoles, bradycardia and systolic murmurs. The electrocardiographic alterations were ventricular extrasystoles, left and right bundle branch block, atrioventricular block and primary T wave alterations. The echocardiogram was altered in 22.6% of the seropositive individuals and in 8.5% of the seronegative individuals.

Study of a measles outbreak in Granada with preventive measures applied by the courts, Spain, 2010 to 2011.

Measles had practically been eliminated in Granada since the systematic vaccination of children with two doses introduced in 1984. However, in 2009 the disease returned in the form of small outbreaks. This study describes the measles outbreak that occurred in Granada from October 2010 to August 2011 and the measures imposed to control it. Information was sourced from the records of the Andalusian epidemiological surveillance system. A total of 308 cases were recorded, representing an incidence rate of 33.6 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The first wave of the epidemic took place in Granada city, with the majority of cases occurring among families who lived in the Albaycín neighbourhood and were opposed to vaccination for ideological and/or religious reasons. The initial cases were in unvaccinated children aged 1 to 13 years. The outbreak later spread throughout the province. To control the outbreak, the vaccination schedule for the exposed children was brought up to date. The Regional Ministry of Health decided to take legal action in order to ensure vaccination of those in the initial nucleus of the outbreak.

Epidemiological and clinical complexity of amoxicillin-clavulanate-resistant Escherichia coli.

Two hundred twelve patients with colonization/infection due to amoxicillin-clavulanate (AMC)-resistant Escherichia coli were studied. OXA-1- and inhibitor-resistant TEM (IRT)-producing strains were associated with urinary tract infections, while OXA-1 producers and chromosomal AmpC hyperproducers were associated with bacteremic infections. AMC resistance in E. coli is a complex phenomenon with heterogeneous clinical implications.

Relevance of cohort studies for the study of transplant infectious diseases.

The debate on the merits of observational studies as compared with randomized trials is ongoing. We will briefly touch on this subject, and demonstrate the role of cohort studies for the description of infectious disease patterns after transplantation. The potential benefits of cohort studies for the clinical management of patients outside of the expected gain in epidemiological knowledge are reviewed. The newly established Swiss Transplantation Cohort Study and in particular the part focusing on infectious diseases will serve as an illustration. A neglected area of research is the indirect value of large, multicenter cohort studies. These benefits can range from a deepened collaboration to the development of common definitions and guidelines. Unfortunately, very few data exist on the role of such indirect effects on improving quality of patient management. This review postulates an important role for cohort studies, which should not be viewed as inferior but complementary to established research tools, in particular randomized trials. Randomized trials remain the least bias-prone method to establish knowledge regarding the significance of diagnostic or therapeutic measures. Cohort studies have the power to reflect a real-world situation and to pinpoint areas of knowledge as well as of uncertainty. Prerequisite is a prospective design requiring a set of inclusive data coupled with the meticulous insistence on data retrieval and quality.