A probabilistic modelling scheme for analysis of long-term failure of cemented femoral joint replacements

Reliable prediction of long-term medical device performance using computer simulation requires consideration of variability in surgical procedure, as well as patient-specific factors. However, even deterministic simulation of long-term failure processes for such devices is time and resource consuming so that including variability can lead to excessive time to achieve useful predictions. This study investigates the use of an accelerated probabilistic framework for predicting the likely performance envelope of a device and applies it to femoral prosthesis loosening in cemented hip arthroplasty.
A creep and fatigue damage failure model for bone cement, in conjunction with an interfacial fatigue model for the implant–cement interface, was used to simulate loosening of a prosthesis within a cement mantle. A deterministic set of trial simulations was used to account for variability of a set of surgical and patient factors, and a response surface method was used to perform and accelerate a Monte Carlo simulation to achieve an estimate of the likely range of prosthesis loosening. The proposed framework was used to conceptually investigate the influence of prosthesis selection and surgical placement on prosthesis migration.
Results demonstrate that the response surface method is capable of dramatically reducing the time to achieve convergence in mean and variance of predicted response variables. A critical requirement for realistic predictions is the size and quality of the initial training dataset used to generate the response surface and further work is required to determine the recommendations for a minimum number of initial trials. Results of this conceptual application predicted that loosening was sensitive to the implant size and femoral width. Furthermore, different rankings of implant performance were predicted when only individual simulations (e.g. an average condition) were used to rank implants, compared with when stochastic simulations were used. In conclusion, the proposed framework provides a viable approach to predicting realistic ranges of loosening behaviour for orthopaedic implants in reduced timeframes compared with conventional Monte Carlo simulations.

Phenomenology and system engineering of micro- and nano-antenna FPA sensors for detection of concealed weapons and improvised explosive devices

The ability of millimetre wave and terahertz systems to penetrate clothing is well known. The fact that the transmission of clothing and the reflectivity of the body vary as a function of frequency is less so. Several instruments have now been developed to exploit this capability. The choice of operating frequency, however, has often been associated with the maturity and the cost of the enabling technology rather than a sound systems engineering approach. Top level user and systems requirements have been derived to inform the development of design concepts. Emerging micro and nano technology concepts have been reviewed and we have demonstrated how these can be evaluated against these requirements by simulation using OpenFx. Openfx is an open source suite of 3D tools for modeling, animation and visualization which has been modified for use at millimeter waves. © 2012 SPIE.

The mechanical and rheological characterisation of implantable medical devices formulated from binary mixtures of cellulose derivatives

This study highlights the potential associated with utilising multi-component polymeric gels to formulate materials that possess unique rheological and mechanical properties. The synergistic effect* and interaction between hydroxyethylcellulose (HEC) and sodium carboxymethylcellulose (NaCMC), polymers which are commonly employed as drug delivery platforms for implantable medical devices (1), have been determined using dynamic, continuous shear and texture profile analysis. * The difference between the actual response of a binary mixture and the sum of the two components comprising the mixture Increases in polymer concentration resulted in an increase in G', G? and ?' whereas tan d decreased. Similarly, significant increases were also apparent in continuous shear and texture analysis. All binary mixtures showed positive synergy values which may suggest associative interaction between the two components.

Smart meter devices and the effect of feedback on residential electricity consumption: Evidence from a natural experiment in Northern Ireland

Using a unique set of data and exploiting a large-scale natural experiment, we estimate the effect of real-time usage information on residential electricity consumption in Northern Ireland. Starting in April 2002, the utility replaced prepayment meters with advanced meters that allow the consumer to track usage in real-time. We rely on this event, account for the endogeneity of price and payment plan with consumption through a plan selection correction term, and find that the provision of information is associated with a decline in electricity consumption of 11-17%. We find that the reduction is robust to different specifications, selection-bias correction methods and subsamples of the original data. The advanced metering program delivers reasonably cost-effective reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, even under the most conservative usage reduction scenarios.

Gaze fixation improves the stability of expert juggling

Novice and expert jugglers employ different visuomotor strategies: whereas novices look at the balls around their zeniths, experts tend to fixate their gaze at a central location within the pattern (so-called gaze-through). A gaze-through strategy may reflect visuomotor parsimony, i.e., the use of simpler visuomotor (oculomotor and/or attentional) strategies as afforded by superior tossing accuracy and error corrections. In addition, the more stable gaze during a gaze-through strategy may result in more accurate movement planning by providing a stable base for gaze-centered neural coding of ball motion and movement plans or for shifts in attention. To determine whether a stable gaze might indeed have such beneficial effects on juggling, we examined juggling variability during 3-ball cascade juggling with and without constrained gaze fixation (at various depths) in expert performers (n = 5). Novice jugglers were included (n = 5) for comparison, even though our predictions pertained specifically to expert juggling. We indeed observed that experts, but not novices, juggled significantly less variable when fixating, compared to unconstrained viewing. Thus, while visuomotor parsimony might still contribute to the emergence of a gaze-through strategy, this study highlights an additional role for improved movement planning. This role may be engendered by gaze-centered coding and/or attentional control mechanisms in the brain.