Hydrogeophysical data integration at larger scales: Application of Bayesian sequential simulation for the characterization of heterogeneous alluvial aquifers

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K) within an aquifer is critical for reliable predictions of solute transport and the development of effective groundwater management and/or remediation strategies. While core analyses and hydraulic logging can provide highly detailed information, such information is inherently localized around boreholes that tend to be sparsely distributed throughout the aquifer volume. Conversely, larger-scale hydraulic experiments like pumping and tracer tests provide relatively low-resolution estimates of K in the investigated subsurface region. As a result, traditional hydrogeological measurement techniques contain a gap in terms of spatial resolution and coverage, and they are often alone inadequate for characterizing heterogeneous aquifers. Geophysical methods have the potential to bridge this gap. The recent increased interest in the application of geophysical methods to hydrogeological problems is clearly evidenced by the formation and rapid growth of the domain of hydrogeophysics over the past decade (e.g., Rubin and Hubbard, 2005).

A bayesian spatial individual effects probit model of the 2010 UK general election

The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specic effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specic effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.

Early broncoconstriction in anesthetized sheep: a simplified experimental model of asthma

Résumé Cette étude décrit un modèle expérimental de bronchoconstriction précoce induite par aérosolisation d'un extrait d'Ascaris suum chez des moutons anesthésiés par de l'isoflurane et ventilés mécaniquement. Dix moutons adultes ont été anesthésiés et ventilés mécaniquement puis ont été exposés à un stimulus bronchoconstrictif sous forme d'un aérosol d'extrait d'Ascaris suum durant 25 minutes. Tous les moutons ont été exposés deux fois à huit semaines d'intervalle à ce même stimulus. Les échanges gazeux ainsi que les paramètres respiratoires ont été mesurés régulièrement durant la période d'aérosolisation ainsi que durant les 60 minutes suivantes. A la fin de la période d'aérosolisation, une augmentation significative (p<0.05) des pressions de crête (+114%) et de plateau (+148%), de la résistance expiratoire (+93%) et de la pression partielle artérielle de gaz carbonique PaCO2 (+25%) a été constatée, de même qu'une diminution significative (p<0.05) de la compliance respiratoire (-41 %) et de la pression partielle artérielle d'oxygène PaO2 (-49%). Ces modifications sont restées stables durant toute la période d'observation. Ce modèle expérimental animal de bronchoconstriction offre de nombreux avantages : la stabilité hémodynamique et le confort de l'animal sont améliorés et la réaction de stress est inhibée. Il permet de plus une distribution optimale de l'antigène respiratoire et finalement évite l'utilisation d'un pléthysmographe corporel. Abstract This study describes a simplified experimental model of early bronchoconstriction induced by aerosolization of Ascaris suum extract in isoflurane-anesthetized and mechanically ventilated sheep. Ten adult sheep were anesthetized, mechanically ventilated and then challenged with an aerosol of Ascaris suum extract during 25 minutes. All of them were challenged twice at eight weeks intervals. During the bronchoconstrictive challenges and the following sixty minutes, gas exchange was measured and respiratory mechanics parameters computed from a lung mechanics calculator. At the end of the challenge, a significant increase (p<0.05) was observed in peak (+114%) and plateau (+148%) pressures, expiratory resistance (+93%) and PaCO2 (+25%) along with a significant decrease (p<0.05) in respiratory compliance (-41 %) and PaO2 (-49%). These changes remained stable throughout the 60 minutes study period. This model offers several advantages: hemodynamic stability and animal welfare are improved and the stress response is blunted. It allows an optimal distribution of the antigen and finally avoids the need of a body plethysmograph.

Application of a roughness-length representation to parameterize energy loss in 3-D numerical simulations of large rivers

Recent technological advances in remote sensing have enabled investigation of the morphodynamics and hydrodynamics of large rivers. However, measuring topography and flow in these very large rivers is time consuming and thus often constrains the spatial resolution and reach-length scales that can be monitored. Similar constraints exist for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies of large rivers, requiring maximization of mesh-or grid-cell dimensions and implying a reduction in the representation of bedform-roughness elements that are of the order of a model grid cell or less, even if they are represented in available topographic data. These ``subgrid'' elements must be parameterized, and this paper applies and considers the impact of roughness-length treatments that include the effect of bed roughness due to ``unmeasured'' topography. CFD predictions were found to be sensitive to the roughness-length specification. Model optimization was based on acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements and estimates of the water surface slope for a variety of roughness lengths. This proved difficult as the metrics used to assess optimal model performance diverged due to the effects of large bedforms that are not well parameterized in roughness-length treatments. However, the general spatial flow patterns are effectively predicted by the model. Changes in roughness length were shown to have a major impact upon flow routing at the channel scale. The results also indicate an absence of secondary flow circulation cells in the reached studied, and suggest simpler two-dimensional models may have great utility in the investigation of flow within large rivers. Citation: Sandbach, S. D. et al. (2012), Application of a roughness-length representation to parameterize energy loss in 3-D numerical simulations of large rivers, Water Resour. Res., 48, W12501, doi: 10.1029/2011WR011284.

Preliminary estimates and forecasts of the population prevalence of self reported of hypertension, of ischaemic heart disease and stroke in the Republic of Ireland from 2005 - 2015

Ireland and Northern Ireland’s Population Health Observatory (INIsPHO) recently published estimates of the population prevalence of diabetes in 2005 and forecasts to 2010 and 2015 for the island of Ireland, at the national and sub-national levels. These estimates are based the PBS Model developed by York and Humber Public Health Observatory (YHPHO), Brent NHS Trust and the School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR).The Department of Health and Children (DoHC) has requested additional estimates and forecasts for hypertension.This paper outlines the results from preliminary work from the initial steps towards a more systematic approach to monitoring the prevalence of other chronic diseases on the island.

Genetic structure of Gymnures (genus Hylomys; Erinaceidae) on continental islands of Southeast Asia: Historical effects of fragmentation

Eustatic sea level changes during Pleistocene climatic fluctuations produced several cycles of connection-isolation among continental islands of the Sunda shelf. To explore the potential effects of these fluctuations, we reconstructed a model of the vicariant events that separated these islands, based on bathymetric information. Among many possible scenarios, two opposite phylogenetic patterns of evolution were predicted for terrestrial organisms living in this region: one is based on the classical allopatric speciation mode of evolution, while the other is the outcome of a sequential dispersal colonization of the archipelago. We tested the applicability of these predictions with an analysis of sequence variation of the cytochrome b gene from several taxa of Hylomys. They were sampled throughout SE-Asia and the Sunda islands. High levels of haplotype differentiation characterize the different island taxa. Such levels of differentiation support the existence of several allopatric species, as was suggested by previous allozyme and morphological data. Also in accordance with previous results, the occurrence of two sympatric species from Sumatra is suggested by their strongly divergent haplotypes. One species, Hylomys suillus maxi, is found both on Sumatra and in Peninsular Malaysia, while the other, H. parvus, is endemic to Sumatra. Its closest relative is H. suillus dorsalis from Borneo. Phylogenetic reconstructions also demonstrate the existence of a Sundaic clade composed of all island taxa, as opposed to those from the continent. Although there is no statistical support for either proposed biogeographic model of evolution, we argue that the sequential dispersal scenario is more appropriate to describe the genetic variation found among the Hylomys taxa. However, despite strong differentiation among island haplotypes, the cladistic relationships between some island taxa could not be resolved. We argue that this is evidence of a rapid radiation, suggesting that the separation of the islands may have been perceived as a simultaneous event rather than as a succession of vicariant events. Furthermore, the estimates of divergence times between the haplotypes of these taxa suggest that this radiation may actually have predated the climatic fluctuations of the Pleistocene. Further refinement of the initial palaeogeographic models of evolution are therefore needed to account for these results.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

RFLP clusters of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains from the Indian Ocean Region: local and South Asian characteristics

This is the first study describing the genetic polymorphism of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains in the Indian Ocean Region. Using IS6110 RFLP analysis, 475 M. tuberculosis isolates from Madagascar, Comoros, Mauritius, Mozambique and La Reunion were compared. Of the 332 IS6110 profiles found, 43 were shared by clusters containing 2-65 strains. Six clusters were common to at least two countries. Of 52 families of strains with similar IS6110 profiles, 10 were common to at least two countries. Interestingly, another characteristic was the frequency (16.8%) of IS6110 single-copy strains. These strains could be distinguished using the DR marker. This preliminary evaluation suggests genetic similarity between the strains of the Indian Ocean Region. However, additional markers would be useful for epidemiological studies and to assess the ancient transmission of strains between countries of this region.

Neuroanatomical and neuropsychological features of euthymic patients with bipolar disorder.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies reported that the severity of cognitive deficits in euthymic patients with bipolar disorder (BD) increases with the duration of illness and postulated that progressive neuronal loss or shrinkage and white matter changes may be at the origin of this phenomenon. To explore this issue, the authors performed a case-control study including detailed neuropsychological and magnetic resonance imaging analyses in 17 euthymic elderly patients with BD and 17 healthy individuals. METHODS: Neuropsychological evaluation concerned working memory, episodic memory, processing speed, and executive functions. Volumetric estimates of the amygdala, hippocampus, entorhinal cortex, and anterior cingulate cortex were obtained using both voxel-based and region of interest morphometric methods. Periventricular and deep white matter were assessed semiquantitatively. Differences in cognitive performances and structural data between BD and comparison groups were analyzed using paired t-test or analysis of variance. Wilcoxon test was used in the absence of normal distribution. RESULTS: Compared with healthy individuals, patients with BD obtained significantly lower performances in processing speed, working memory, and episodic memory but not in executive functions. Morphometric analyses did not show significant volumetric or white matter differences between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results revealed impairment in verbal memory, working memory, and processing speed in euthymic older adults with BD. These cognitive deficits are comparable both in terms of affected functions and size effects to those previously reported in younger cohorts with BD. Both this observation and the absence of structural brain abnormalities in our cohort do not support a progressively evolving neurotoxic effect in BD.

Estimation of the lateral correlation structure of subsurface water content from surface-based ground-penetrating radar reflection images

Over the past decade, significant interest has been expressed in relating the spatial statistics of surface-based reflection ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data to those of the imaged subsurface volume. A primary motivation for this work is that changes in the radar wave velocity, which largely control the character of the observed data, are expected to be related to corresponding changes in subsurface water content. Although previous work has indeed indicated that the spatial statistics of GPR images are linked to those of the water content distribution of the probed region, a viable method for quantitatively analyzing the GPR data and solving the corresponding inverse problem has not yet been presented. Here we address this issue by first deriving a relationship between the 2-D autocorrelation of a water content distribution and that of the corresponding GPR reflection image. We then show how a Bayesian inversion strategy based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling can be used to estimate the posterior distribution of subsurface correlation model parameters that are consistent with the GPR data. Our results indicate that if the underlying assumptions are valid and we possess adequate prior knowledge regarding the water content distribution, in particular its vertical variability, this methodology allows not only for the reliable recovery of lateral correlation model parameters but also for estimates of parameter uncertainties. In the case where prior knowledge regarding the vertical variability of water content is not available, the results show that the methodology still reliably recovers the aspect ratio of the heterogeneity.

Tightening force and torque of nonlocking screws in a reverse shoulder prosthesis.

BACKGROUND: Reversed shoulder arthroplasty is an accepted treatment for glenohumeral arthritis associated to rotator cuff deficiency. For most reversed shoulder prostheses, the baseplate of the glenoid component is uncemented and its primary stability is provided by a central peg and peripheral screws. Because of the importance of the primary stability for a good osteo-integration of the baseplate, the optimal fixation of the screws is crucial. In particular, the amplitude of the tightening force of the nonlocking screws is clearly associated to this stability. Since this force is unknown, it is currently not accounted for in experimental or numerical analyses. Thus, the primary goal of this work is to measure this tightening force experimentally. In addition, the tightening torque was also measured, to estimate an optimal surgical value. METHODS: An experimental setup with an instrumented baseplate was developed to measure simultaneously the tightening force, tightening torque and screwing angle, of the nonlocking screws of the Aquealis reversed prosthesis. In addition, the amount of bone volume around each screw was measured with a micro-CT. Measurements were performed on 6 human cadaveric scapulae. FINDINGS: A statistically correlated relationship (p<0.05, R=0.83) was obtained between the maximal tightening force and the bone volume. The relationship between the tightening torque and the bone volume was not statistically significant. INTERPRETATION: The experimental relationship presented in this paper can be used in numerical analyses to improve the baseplate fixation in the glenoid bone.

On optimal location with treshold requirements

The optimal location of services is one of the most important factors that affects service quality in terms of consumer access. On theother hand, services in general need to have a minimum catchment area so as to be efficient. In this paper a model is presented that locates the maximum number of services that can coexist in a given region without having losses, taking into account that they need a minimum catchment area to exist. The objective is to minimize average distance to the population. The formulation presented belongs to the class of discrete P--median--like models. A tabu heuristic method is presented to solve the problem. Finally, the model is applied to the location of pharmacies in a rural region of Spain.

Robust response transformations based on optimal prediction

Nonlinear regression problems can often be reduced to linearity by transforming the response variable (e.g., using the Box-Cox family of transformations). The classic estimates of the parameter defining the transformation as well as of the regression coefficients are based on the maximum likelihood criterion, assuming homoscedastic normal errors for the transformed response. These estimates are nonrobust in the presence of outliers and can be inconsistent when the errors are nonnormal or heteroscedastic. This article proposes new robust estimates that are consistent and asymptotically normal for any unimodal and homoscedastic error distribution. For this purpose, a robust version of conditional expectation is introduced for which the prediction mean squared error is replaced with an M scale. This concept is then used to develop a nonparametric criterion to estimate the transformation parameter as well as the regression coefficients. A finite sample estimate of this criterion based on a robust version of smearing is also proposed. Monte Carlo experiments show that the new estimates compare favorably with respect to the available competitors.

Biomass and abundance of termites in three remnant areas of Atlantic Forest in northeastern Brazil

Termite biomass and abundance were estimated in three remnant areas of Atlantic Forest in northeastern Brazil: Reserva Biológica de Pedra Talhada-RBPT (Alagoas State), Parque Estadual Dois Irmãos-PEDI (Pernambuco State), and Área de Proteção Ambiental Mata do Buraquinho-APMB (Paraíba State). A quantitative sampling of the termite assemblages present on trunks and leaf litter, in nests, and in the soil was undertaken during the months of June and July (rainy season) and November and December (dry season) of 2000. Thirty seven species of termites were encountered and quantified in the three remnant forest areas. The termite biomass varied from 10.09 to 11.30 g (fresh weight)/m² and abundance varied from 4911 to 5663 individuals/m². The subfamily Nasutitermitinae was dominant in terms of the number of species, biomass, and abundance. The soil-feeders were the most abundant at the three sites, while wood-feeders had the largest biomass at least at the PEDI and APMB sites. Among the microhabitats quantified, termites were most frequently encountered in the soil, being most heavily concentrated at depths of 0-20 cm. Two species stood out in terms of their biomass and abundance: Embiratermes parvirostris Constantino, on the soil, and Nasutitermes corniger (Motschulsky), on decomposing trunks and in nests. Estimates of biomass and abundance suggest that termites play an important role in the decomposition of the plant necromass in remnant forest areas of the Atlantic Forest in northeastern Brazil.

Universality of optimal measurements

We present optimal and minimal measurements on identical copies of an unknown state of a quantum bit when the quality of measuring strategies is quantified with the gain of information (Kullback-or mutual information-of probability distributions). We also show that the maximal gain of information occurs, among isotropic priors, when the state is known to be pure. Universality of optimal measurements follows from our results: using the fidelity or the gain of information, two different figures of merits, leads to exactly the same conclusions for isotropic distributions. We finally investigate the optimal capacity of N copies of an unknown state as a quantum channel of information.