Neural Networks in Bankruptcy Prediction - A Comparative Study on the Basis of the First Hungarian Bankruptcy Model

The article attempts to answer the question whether or not the latest bankruptcy prediction techniques are more reliable than traditional mathematical–statistical ones in Hungary. Simulation experiments carried out on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy prediction model clearly prove that bankruptcy models built using artificial neural networks have higher classification accuracy than models created in the 1990s based on discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis. The article presents the main results, analyses the reasons for the differences and presents constructive proposals concerning the further development of Hungarian bankruptcy prediction.

Trust and cooperation in buyer–seller relationships and networks. The co-evolution of structural balance and trust in iterated PD games

Our study has two aims: to elaborate theoretical frameworks and introduce social mechanisms of spontaneous co-operation in repeated buyer-seller relationships and to formulate hypotheses which can be empirically tested. The basis of our chain of ideas is the simple two-person Prisoner’s Dilemma game. On the one hand, its repeated variation can be applicable for the distinction of the analytical types of trust (iteration trust, strategy trust) in co-operations. On the other hand, it provides a chance to reveal those dyadic sympathy-antipathy relations, which make us understand the evolution of trust. Then we introduce the analysis of the more complicated (more than two-person) buyer-seller relationship. Firstly, we outline the possible role of the structural balancing mechanisms in forming trust in three-person buyer-seller relationships. Secondly, we put forward hypotheses to explain complex buyer-seller networks. In our research project we try to theoretically combine some of the simple concepts of game theory with certain ideas of the social-structural balance theory. Finally, it is followed by a short summary.

A tudásérték meghatározása minőségügyi szempontból, hálózatelemzési módszerekkel (The knowledge value in terms of quality with network analysis methods)

A minőségügy egyik kulcsfeladata, hogy azonosítsa az értékteremtés szempontjából kritikus tényezőket, meghatározza ezek értékét, valamint intézkedjen negatív hatásuk megelőzése és csökkentése érdekében. Az értékteremtés sok esetben folyamatokon keresztül történik, amelyek tevékenységekből, elvégzendő feladatokból állnak. Ezekhez megfelelő munkatársak kellenek, akiknek az egyik legfontosabb jellemzője az általuk birtokolt tudás. Mindezek alapján a feladat-tudás-erőforrás kapcsolatrendszer ismerete és kezelése minőségügyi feladat is. A komplex rendszerek elemzésével foglalkozó hálózatkutatás eszközt biztosíthat ehhez, ezért indokolt a minőségügyi területen történő alkalmazhatóságának vizsgálata. Az alkalmazási lehetőségek rendszerezése érdekében a szerzők kategorizálták a minőségügyi hálózatokat az élek (kapcsolatok) és a csúcsok (hálózati pontok) típusai alapján. Ezt követően definiálták a multimodális (több különböző csúcstípusból álló) tudáshálózatot, amely a feladatokból, az erőforrásokból, a tudáselemekből és a közöttük lévő kapcsolatokból épül fel. A hálózat segítségével kategóriákba sorolták a tudáselemeket, valamint a fokszámok alapján meghatározták értéküket. A multimodális hálózatból képzett tudáselem-hálózatban megadták az összefüggő csoportok jelentését, majd megfogalmaztak egy összefüggést a tudáselem-elvesztés kockázatának meghatározására. _______ The aims of quality management are to identify those factors that have significant influence on value production, qualify or quantify them, and make preventive and corrective actions in order to reduce their negative effects. The core elements of value production are processes and tasks, along with workforce having the necessary knowledge to work. For that reason the task-resource-knowledge structure is pertinent to quality management. Network science provides methods to analyze complex systems; therefore it seems reasonable to study the use of tools of network analysis in association with quality management issues. First of all the authors categorized quality networks according to the types of nodes (vertices) and links (edges or arcs). Focusing on knowledge management, they defined the multimodal knowledge network, consisting of tasks, resources, knowledge items and their interconnections. Based on their degree, network nodes can be categorized and their value can be quantified. Derived from the multimodal network knowledge-item network is to be created, where the meaning of cohesive subgroups is defined. Eventually they proposed a formula for determining the risk of knowledge loss.

Resource allocation in multi-user telecommunication networks

This dissertation discussed resource allocation mechanisms in several network topologies including infrastructure wireless network, non-infrastructure wireless network and wire-cum-wireless network. Different networks may have different resource constrains. Based on actual technologies and implementation models, utility function, game theory and a modern control algorithm have been introduced to balance power, bandwidth and customers' satisfaction in the system. ^ In infrastructure wireless networks, utility function was used in the Third Generation (3G) cellular network and the network was trying to maximize the total utility. In this dissertation, revenue maximization was set as an objective. Compared with the previous work on utility maximization, it is more practical to implement revenue maximization by the cellular network operators. The pricing strategies were studied and the algorithms were given to find the optimal price combination of power and rate to maximize the profit without degrading the Quality of Service (QoS) performance. ^ In non-infrastructure wireless networks, power capacity is limited by the small size of the nodes. In such a network, nodes need to transmit traffic not only for themselves but also for their neighbors, so power management become the most important issue for the network overall performance. Our innovative routing algorithm based on utility function, sets up a flexible framework for different users with different concerns in the same network. This algorithm allows users to make trade offs between multiple resource parameters. Its flexibility makes it a suitable solution for the large scale non-infrastructure network. This dissertation also covers non-cooperation problems. Through combining game theory and utility function, equilibrium points could be found among rational users which can enhance the cooperation in the network. ^ Finally, a wire-cum-wireless network architecture was introduced. This network architecture can support multiple services over multiple networks with smart resource allocation methods. Although a SONET-to-WiMAX case was used for the analysis, the mathematic procedure and resource allocation scheme could be universal solutions for all infrastructure, non-infrastructure and combined networks. ^

Directionality based preventive link maintenance scheme for mobile ad hoc networks

The purpose of this study was to design a preventive scheme using directional antennas to improve the performance of mobile ad hoc networks. In this dissertation, a novel Directionality based Preventive Link Maintenance (DPLM) Scheme is proposed to characterize the performance gain [JaY06a, JaY06b, JCY06] by extending the life of link. In order to maintain the link and take preventive action, signal strength of data packets is measured. Moreover, location information or angle of arrival information is collected during communication and saved in the table. When measured signal strength is below orientation threshold , an orientation warning is generated towards the previous hop node. Once orientation warning is received by previous hop (adjacent) node, it verifies the correctness of orientation warning with few hello pings and initiates high quality directional link (a link above the threshold) and immediately switches to it, avoiding a link break altogether. The location information is utilized to create a directional link by orienting neighboring nodes antennas towards each other. We call this operation an orientation handoff, which is similar to soft-handoff in cellular networks. ^ Signal strength is the indicating factor, which represents the health of the link and helps to predict the link failure. In other words, link breakage happens due to node movement and subsequently reducing signal strength of receiving packets. DPLM scheme helps ad hoc networks to avoid or postpone costly operation of route rediscovery in on-demand routing protocols by taking above-mentioned preventive action. ^ This dissertation advocates close but simple collaboration between the routing, medium access control and physical layers. In order to extend the link, the Dynamic Source Routing (DSR) and IEEE 802.11 MAC protocols were modified to use the ability of directional antennas to transmit over longer distance. A directional antenna module is implemented in OPNET simulator with two separate modes of operations: omnidirectional and directional. The antenna module has been incorporated in wireless node model and simulations are performed to characterize the performance improvement of mobile ad hoc networks. Extensive simulations have shown that without affecting the behavior of the routing protocol noticeably, aggregate throughput, packet delivery ratio, end-to-end delay (latency), routing overhead, number of data packets dropped, and number of path breaks are improved considerably. We have done the analysis of the results in different scenarios to evaluate that the use of directional antennas with proposed DPLM scheme has been found promising to improve the performance of mobile ad hoc networks. ^

An investigation of location effect on trip production using artificial neural networks

As traffic congestion exuberates and new roadway construction is severely constrained because of limited availability of land, high cost of land acquisition, and communities' opposition to the building of major roads, new solutions have to be sought to either make roadway use more efficient or reduce travel demand. There is a general agreement that travel demand is affected by land use patterns. However, traditional aggregate four-step models, which are the prevailing modeling approach presently, assume that traffic condition will not affect people's decision on whether to make a trip or not when trip generation is estimated. Existing survey data indicate, however, that differences exist in trip rates for different geographic areas. The reasons for such differences have not been carefully studied, and the success of quantifying the influence of land use on travel demand beyond employment, households, and their characteristics has been limited to be useful to the traditional four-step models. There may be a number of reasons, such as that the representation of influence of land use on travel demand is aggregated and is not explicit and that land use variables such as density and mix and accessibility as measured by travel time and congestion have not been adequately considered. This research employs the artificial neural network technique to investigate the potential effects of land use and accessibility on trip productions. Sixty two variables that may potentially influence trip production are studied. These variables include demographic, socioeconomic, land use and accessibility variables. Different architectures of ANN models are tested. Sensitivity analysis of the models shows that land use does have an effect on trip production, so does traffic condition. The ANN models are compared with linear regression models and cross-classification models using the same data. The results show that ANN models are better than the linear regression models and cross-classification models in terms of RMSE. Future work may focus on finding a representation of traffic condition with existing network data and population data which might be available when the variables are needed to in prediction.

Foundational forensic techniques for cellular and ad hoc multi-hop networks

The Internet has become an integral part of our nation’s critical socio-economic infrastructure. With its heightened use and growing complexity however, organizations are at greater risk of cyber crimes. To aid in the investigation of crimes committed on or via the Internet, a network forensics analysis tool pulls together needed digital evidence. It provides a platform for performing deep network analysis by capturing, recording and analyzing network events to find out the source of a security attack or other information security incidents. Existing network forensics work has been mostly focused on the Internet and fixed networks. But the exponential growth and use of wireless technologies, coupled with their unprecedented characteristics, necessitates the development of new network forensic analysis tools. This dissertation fostered the emergence of a new research field in cellular and ad-hoc network forensics. It was one of the first works to identify this problem and offer fundamental techniques and tools that laid the groundwork for future research. In particular, it introduced novel methods to record network incidents and report logged incidents. For recording incidents, location is considered essential to documenting network incidents. However, in network topology spaces, location cannot be measured due to absence of a ‘distance metric’. Therefore, a novel solution was proposed to label locations of nodes within network topology spaces, and then to authenticate the identity of nodes in ad hoc environments. For reporting logged incidents, a novel technique based on Distributed Hash Tables (DHT) was adopted. Although the direct use of DHTs for reporting logged incidents would result in an uncontrollably recursive traffic, a new mechanism was introduced that overcome this recursive process. These logging and reporting techniques aided forensics over cellular and ad-hoc networks, which in turn increased their ability to track and trace attacks to their source. These techniques were a starting point for further research and development that would result in equipping future ad hoc networks with forensic components to complement existing security mechanisms.

Trust based security mechanisms for wireless sensor networks

Wireless sensor networks are emerging as effective tools in the gathering and dissemination of data. They can be applied in many fields including health, environmental monitoring, home automation and the military. Like all other computing systems it is necessary to include security features, so that security sensitive data traversing the network is protected. However, traditional security techniques cannot be applied to wireless sensor networks. This is due to the constraints of battery power, memory, and the computational capacities of the miniature wireless sensor nodes. Therefore, to address this need, it becomes necessary to develop new lightweight security protocols. This dissertation focuses on designing a suite of lightweight trust-based security mechanisms and a cooperation enforcement protocol for wireless sensor networks. This dissertation presents a trust-based cluster head election mechanism used to elect new cluster heads. This solution prevents a major security breach against the routing protocol, namely, the election of malicious or compromised cluster heads. This dissertation also describes a location-aware, trust-based, compromise node detection, and isolation mechanism. Both of these mechanisms rely on the ability of a node to monitor its neighbors. Using neighbor monitoring techniques, the nodes are able to determine their neighbors’ reputation and trust level through probabilistic modeling. The mechanisms were designed to mitigate internal attacks within wireless sensor networks. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated through extensive simulations. The dissertation also addresses non-cooperation problems in multi-user wireless sensor networks. A scalable lightweight enforcement algorithm using evolutionary game theory is also designed. The effectiveness of this cooperation enforcement algorithm is validated through mathematical analysis and simulation. This research has advanced the knowledge of wireless sensor network security and cooperation by developing new techniques based on mathematical models. By doing this, we have enabled others to build on our work towards the creation of highly trusted wireless sensor networks. This would facilitate its full utilization in many fields ranging from civilian to military applications.

An approach for design and analysis of User-centric Communication Middleware

Today, the development of domain-specific communication applications is both time-consuming and error-prone because the low-level communication services provided by the existing systems and networks are primitive and often heterogeneous. Multimedia communication applications are typically built on top of low-level network abstractions such as TCP/UDP socket, SIP (Session Initiation Protocol) and RTP (Real-time Transport Protocol) APIs. The User-centric Communication Middleware (UCM) is proposed to encapsulate the networking complexity and heterogeneity of basic multimedia and multi-party communication for upper-layer communication applications. And UCM provides a unified user-centric communication service to diverse communication applications ranging from a simple phone call and video conferencing to specialized communication applications like disaster management and telemedicine. It makes it easier to the development of domain-specific communication applications. The UCM abstraction and API is proposed to achieve these goals. The dissertation also tries to integrate the formal method into UCM development process. The formal model is created for UCM using SAM methodology. Some design errors are found during model creation because the formal method forces to give the precise description of UCM. By using the SAM tool, formal UCM model is translated to Promela formula model. In the dissertation, some system properties are defined as temporal logic formulas. These temporal logic formulas are manually translated to promela formulas which are individually integrated with promela formula model of UCM and verified using SPIN tool. Formal analysis used here helps verify the system properties (for example multiparty multimedia protocol) and dig out the bugs of systems.

A research platform for artificial neural networks with applications in pediatric epilepsy

This dissertation established a state-of-the-art programming tool for designing and training artificial neural networks (ANNs) and showed its applicability to brain research. The developed tool, called NeuralStudio, allows users without programming skills to conduct studies based on ANNs in a powerful and very user friendly interface. A series of unique features has been implemented in NeuralStudio, such as ROC analysis, cross-validation, network averaging, topology optimization, and optimization of the activation function’s slopes. It also included a Support Vector Machines module for comparison purposes. Once the tool was fully developed, it was applied to two studies in brain research. In the first study, the goal was to create and train an ANN to detect epileptic seizures from subdural EEG. This analysis involved extracting features from the spectral power in the gamma frequencies. In the second application, a unique method was devised to link EEG recordings to epileptic and nonepileptic subjects. The contribution of this method consisted of developing a descriptor matrix that can be used to represent any EEG file regarding its duration and the number of electrodes. The first study showed that the inter-electrode mean of the spectral power in the gamma frequencies and its duration above a specific threshold performs better than the other frequencies in seizure detection, exhibiting an accuracy of 95.90%, a sensitivity of 92.59%, and a specificity of 96.84%. The second study yielded that Hjorth’s parameter activity is sufficient to accurately relate EEG to epileptic and non-epileptic subjects. After testing, accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the classifier were all above 0.9667. Statistical tests measured the superiority of activity at over 99.99 % certainty. It was demonstrated that (1) the spectral power in the gamma frequencies is highly effective in locating seizures from EEG and (2) activity can be used to link EEG recordings to epileptic and non-epileptic subjects. These two studies required high computational load and could be addressed thanks to NeuralStudio. From a medical perspective, both methods proved the merits of NeuralStudio in brain research applications. For its outstanding features, NeuralStudio has been recently awarded a patent (US patent No. 7502763).

Resource management and optimization in wireless mesh networks

A wireless mesh network is a mesh network implemented over a wireless network system such as wireless LANs. Wireless Mesh Networks(WMNs) are promising for numerous applications such as broadband home networking, enterprise networking, transportation systems, health and medical systems, security surveillance systems, etc. Therefore, it has received considerable attention from both industrial and academic researchers. This dissertation explores schemes for resource management and optimization in WMNs by means of network routing and network coding.^ In this dissertation, we propose three optimization schemes. (1) First, a triple-tier optimization scheme is proposed for load balancing objective. The first tier mechanism achieves long-term routing optimization, and the second tier mechanism, using the optimization results obtained from the first tier mechanism, performs the short-term adaptation to deal with the impact of dynamic channel conditions. A greedy sub-channel allocation algorithm is developed as the third tier optimization scheme to further reduce the congestion level in the network. We conduct thorough theoretical analysis to show the correctness of our design and give the properties of our scheme. (2) Then, a Relay-Aided Network Coding scheme called RANC is proposed to improve the performance gain of network coding by exploiting the physical layer multi-rate capability in WMNs. We conduct rigorous analysis to find the design principles and study the tradeoff in the performance gain of RANC. Based on the analytical results, we provide a practical solution by decomposing the original design problem into two sub-problems, flow partition problem and scheduling problem. (3) Lastly, a joint optimization scheme of the routing in the network layer and network coding-aware scheduling in the MAC layer is introduced. We formulate the network optimization problem and exploit the structure of the problem via dual decomposition. We find that the original problem is composed of two problems, routing problem in the network layer and scheduling problem in the MAC layer. These two sub-problems are coupled through the link capacities. We solve the routing problem by two different adaptive routing algorithms. We then provide a distributed coding-aware scheduling algorithm. According to corresponding experiment results, the proposed schemes can significantly improve network performance.^

Cuba’s Role in Venezuela’s Control of the Internet and Online Social Networks

The arrival of Cuba’s Information Technology (IT) and Communications Minister Ramiro Valdés to Venezuela in the Spring of 2010 to serve as a ‘consultant’ to the Venezuelan government awakened a new reality in that country. Rampant with deep economic troubles, escalating crime, a murder rate that has doubled since Chávez took over in 1999, and an opposition movement led by university students and other activists who use the Internet as their primary weapon, Venezuela has resorted to Cuba for help. In a country where in large part traditional media outlets have been censored or are government-controlled, the Internet and its online social networks have become the place to obtain, as well as disseminate, unfiltered information. As such, Internet growth and use of its social networks has skyrocketed in Venezuela, making it one of Latin America’s highest Web users. Because of its increased use to spark political debate among Venezuelans and publish information that differs with the official government line, Chávez has embarked on an initiative to bring the Internet to the poor and others who would otherwise not have access, by establishing government-sponsored Internet Info Centers throughout the country, to disseminate information to his followers. With the help of Cuban advisors, who for years have been a part of Venezuela’s defense, education, and health care initiatives, Chávez has apparently taken to adapting Cuba’s methodology for the control of information. He has begun to take special steps toward also controlling the type of information flowing through the country’s online social networks, considering the implementation of a government-controlled single Internet access point in Venezuela. Simultaneously, in adapting to Venezuela’s Internet reality, Chávez has engaged online by creating his own Twitter account in an attempt to influence public opinion, primarily of those who browse the Web. With a rapidly growing following that may soon reach one million subscribers, Chávez claims to have set up his own online trench to wage cyber space battle.