Propuesta metodológica de aplicación sectorial de Análisis de Ciclo de Vida (ACV) para la evaluación ambiental de la edificación en España

La aplicación de criterios de sostenibilidad ha de entenderse como el procedimiento esencial para la necesaria reconversión del sector de la construcción, que movilizando el 10% de la economía mundial, representa más de la tercera parte del consumo mundial de recursos, en torno al 30-40% del consumo energético y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, 30-40% de la generación de residuos y el 12% de todo el gasto en agua dulce del planeta. La presente investigación se enmarca en una estrategia general de promover la evaluación de la sostenibilidad en la edificación en el contexto español, dando un primer paso centrado en la evaluación del comportamiento ambiental. El hilo conductor de la investigación parte de la necesidad de establecer un marco teórico de sostenibilidad, que permita clarificar conceptos y definir criterios de valoración adecuados. Como siguiente paso, la investigación se dirige a la revisión del panorama internacional de normativa e instrumentos voluntarios, con el objetivo de clarificar el difuso panorama que caracteriza a la sostenibilidad en el sector de la edificación en la actualidad y enmarcar la investigación en un contexto de políticas y programaciones ya existentes. El objetivo principal reside en el planteamiento de una metodología de evaluación de los aspectos o impactos ambientales asociados al ciclo de vida de la edificación, aplicable al contexto español, como una de las tres dimensiones que constituyen los pilares básicos de la sostenibilidad. Los ámbitos de evaluación de los aspectos sociales y económicos, para los que no existe actualmente un grado de definición metodológico suficientemente congruente, son adicionalmente examinados, de cara a ofrecer una visión holística de la evaluación. Previo al desarrollo de la propuesta, se aborda, en primer lugar, la descripción de las características básicas y limitaciones de la metodología de Análisis de Ciclo de Vida (ACV), para posteriormente proceder a profundizar en el estado del arte de aplicación de ACV a la edificación, realizando una revisión crítica de los trabajos de investigación que han sido desarrollados en los últimos años. Esta revisión permite extraer conclusiones sobre su grado de coherencia con el futuro entorno normativo e identificar dos necesidades prioritarias de actuación: -La necesidad de armonización, dadas las fuertes inconsistencias metodológicas detectadas, que imposibilitan la comparación de los resultados obtenidos en los trabajos de evaluación. -La necesidad de simplificación, dada la complejidad inherente a la evaluación, de modo que, manteniendo el máximo rigor, sea viable su aplicación práctica en el contexto español. A raíz de la participación en los trabajos de desarrollo normativo a nivel europeo, se ha adquirido una visión crítica sobre las implicaciones metodológicas de la normativa en definición, que permite identificar la hoja de ruta que marcará el escenario europeo en los próximos años. La definición de la propuesta metodológica integra los principios generales de aplicación de ACV con el protocolo metodológico establecido en la norma europea, considerando adicionalmente las referencias normativas de las prácticas constructivas en el contexto español. En el planteamiento de la propuesta se han analizado las posibles simplificaciones aplicables, con el objetivo de hacer viable su implementación, centrando los esfuerzos en la sistematización del concepto de equivalente funcional, el establecimiento de recomendaciones sobre el tipo de datos en función de su disponibilidad y la revisión crítica de los modelos de cálculo de los impactos ambientales. Las implicaciones metodológicas de la propuesta se describen a través de una serie de casos de estudio, que ilustran su viabilidad y las características básicas de aplicación. Finalmente, se realiza un recorrido por los aspectos que han sido identificados como prioritarios en la conformación del escenario de perspectivas futuras, líneas de investigación y líneas de acción. Abstract Sustainability criteria application must be understood as the essential procedure for the necessary restructuring of the construction sector, which mobilizes 10% of the world economy, accounting for more than one third of the consumption of the world's resources, around 30 - 40% of energy consumption and emissions of greenhouse gases, 30-40% of waste generation and 12% of all the fresh water use in the world. This research is in line with an overall strategy to promote the sustainability assessment of building in the Spanish context, taking a first step focused on the environmental performance assessment. The thread of the present research sets out from the need to establish a theoretical framework of sustainability which clarifies concepts and defines appropriate endpoints. As a next step, the research focuses on the review of the international panorama regulations and voluntary instruments, with the aim of clarifying the fuzzy picture that characterizes sustainability in the building sector at present while framing the research in the context of existing policies and programming. The main objective lies in the approach of a methodology for the assessment of the environmental impacts associated with the life cycle of building, applicable to the Spanish context, as one of the three dimensions that constitute the pillars of sustainability. The areas of assessment of social and economic issues, for which there is currently a degree of methodological definition consistent enough, are further examined, in order to provide a holistic view of the assessment. The description of the basic features and limitations of the methodology of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) are previously addressed, later proceeding to deepen the state of the art of LCA applied to the building sector, conducting a critical review of the research works that have been developed in recent years. This review allows to establish conclusions about the degree of consistency with the future regulatory environment and to identify two priority needs for action: - The need for harmonization, given the strong methodological inconsistencies detected that prevent the comparison of results obtained in assessment works. - The need for simplification, given the inherent complexity of the assessment, so that, while maintaining the utmost rigor, make the practical application feasible in the Spanish context. The participation in the work of policy development at European level has helped to achieve a critical view of the methodological implications of the rules under debate, identifying the roadmap that will mark the European scene in the coming years. The definition of the proposed methodology integrates the general principles of LCA methodology with the protocol established in the European standard, also considering the regulatory standards to construction practices in the Spanish context. In the proposed approach, possible simplifications applicable have been analyzed, in order to make its implementation possible, focusing efforts in systematizing the functional equivalent concept, establishing recommendations on the type of data based on their availability and critical review of the calculation models of environmental impacts. The methodological implications of the proposal are described through a series of case studies, which illustrate the feasibility and the basic characteristics of its application. Finally, the main aspects related to future prospects, research lines and lines of action that have been identified as priorities are outlined.

Evaluación de los co-beneficios sobre el desarrollo sostenible y la reducción de la pobreza de proyectos de mitigación del cambio climático en Brasil

El cambio climático y los diferentes aspectos del concepto de “desarrollo” están intrínsecamente interconectados. Por un lado, el desarrollo económico de nuestras sociedades ha contribuido a un aumento insostenible de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, las cuales están desestabilizando el sistema climático global, generando al mismo tiempo una distribución desigual de la capacidad de las personas para hacer frente a estos cambios. Por otro lado, en la actualidad existe un amplio consenso sobre que el cambio climático impacta directamente y de manera negativa sobre el denominando desarrollo sostenible. De igual manera, cada vez existe un mayor consenso de que el cambio climático va a desafiar sustancialmente nuestra capacidad de erradicar la pobreza a medio y largo plazo. Ante esta realidad, no cabe duda de que las estrategias de adaptación son esenciales para mantener el desarrollo. Es por esto que hasta el momento, los mayores esfuerzos realizados por unir las agendas globales de la lucha contra la pobreza y del cambio climático se han dado en el entorno de la adaptación al cambio climático. Sin embargo, cada vez son más los actores que defienden, desde distintos escenarios, que existen sinergias entre la mitigación de emisiones y la mejora de las condiciones de vida de las poblaciones más vulnerables, favoreciendo así un “desarrollo sostenible” sin disminuir los recursos financieros destinados a la adaptación. Para hacer efectivo este potencial, es imprescindible identificar diseños de estrategias de mitigación que incrementen los resultados de desarrollo, contribuyendo al desarrollo sostenible al mismo tiempo que a reducir la pobreza. En este contexto se sitúa el objetivo principal de esta investigación, consistente en analizar los co-beneficios locales, para el desarrollo sostenible y la reducción la pobreza, de proyectos de mitigación del cambio climático que se implementan en Brasil. Por co-beneficios se entienden, en el lenguaje de las discusiones internacionales de cambio climático, aquellos beneficios que van más allá de la reducción de emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero (GEI) intrínsecas por definición a los proyectos de mitigación. Los proyectos de mitigación más relevantes hasta el momento bajo el paraguas de la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas para el Cambio Climático (CMNUCC), son los denominados Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL) del Protocolo de Kioto. Sin embargo, existen alternativas de proyectos de mitigación (tales como los denominados “estándares adicionales” a los MDL de los Mercados Voluntarios de Carbono y las Tecnologías Sociales), que también serán tenidos en cuenta en el marco de este estudio. La elección del tema se justifica por la relevancia del mismo en un momento histórico en el que se está decidiendo el futuro del régimen climático a partir del año 2020. Aunque en el momento de redactar este documento, todavía no se ha acordado la forma que tendrán los futuros instrumentos de mitigación, sí que se sabe que los co-beneficios de estos instrumentos serán tan importantes, o incluso más, que las reducciones de GEI que generan. Esto se debe, principalmente, a las presiones realizadas en las negociaciones climáticas por parte de los países menos desarrollados, para los cuales el mayor incentivo de formar parte de dichas negociaciones se basa principalmente en estos potenciales co-beneficios. Los resultados de la tesis se estructuran alrededor de tres preguntas de investigación: ¿cómo están contribuyendo los MDL implementados en Brasil a generar co-beneficios que fomenten el desarrollo sostenible y reduzcan la pobreza?; ¿existen proyectos de mitigación en Brasil que por tener compromisos más exigentes en cuanto a su contribución al desarrollo sostenible y/o la reducción de la pobreza que los MDL estén siendo más eficientes que estos en relación a los co-beneficios que generan?; y ¿qué características de los proyectos de mitigación pueden resultar críticas para potenciar sus co-beneficios en las comunidades en las que se implementan? Para dar respuesta a estas preguntas, se ha desarrollado durante cuatro años una labor de investigación estructurada en varias fases y en la que se combinan diversas metodologías, que abarcan desde el desarrollo de un modelo de análisis de cobeneficios, hasta la aplicación del mismo tanto a nivel documental sobre 194 documentos de diseño de proyecto (denominado análisis ex-ante), como a través de 20 casos de estudio (denominado análisis ex-post). Con la realización de esta investigación, se ha confirmado que los requisitos existentes hasta el momento para registrar un proyecto como MDL bajo la CMNUCC no favorecen sustancialmente la generación de co-beneficios locales para las comunidades en las que se implementan. Adicionalmente, se han identificado prácticas y factores, que vinculadas a las actividades intrínsecas de los proyectos de mitigación, son efectivas para incrementar sus co-beneficios. Estas prácticas y factores podrán ser tenidas en cuenta tanto para mejorar los requisitos de los actuales proyectos MDL, como para apoyar la definición de los nuevos instrumentos climáticos. ABSTRACT Climate change and development are inextricably linked. On the one hand, the economic development of our societies has contributed to the unsustainable increase of Green House Gases emissions, which are destabilizing the global climate system while fostering an unequal distribution of people´s ability to cope with these changes. On the other hand, there is now a consensus that climate change directly impacts the so-called sustainable development. Likely, there is a growing agreement that climate change will substantially threaten our capacity to eradicate poverty in the medium and long term. Given this reality, there is no doubt that adaptation strategies are essentials to keep development. This is why, to date, much of the focus on poverty in the context of climate change has been on adaptation However, without diverting resources from adaptation, there may exist the potential to synergize efforts to mitigate emissions, contribute to sustainable development and reduce poverty. To fulfil this potential, it is key identifying how mitigation strategies can also support sustainable development and reduce poverty. In this context, the main purpose of this investigation is to explore the co-benefits, for sustainable development and for poverty reduction, of climate change mitigation projects being implemented in Brazil. In recent years the term co-benefits, has been used by policy makers and academics to refer the potentially large and diverse range of collateral benefits that can be associated with climate change mitigation policies in addition to the direct avoided climate impact benefits. The most relevant mitigation projects developed during the last years under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are the so-called Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol. Thus, this research will analyse this official mechanism. However, there are alternatives to the mitigation projects (such as the "add-on standards" of the Voluntary Carbon Markets, and the Social Technologies) that will also be assessed as part of the research. The selection of this research theme is justified because its relevance in a historic moment in which proposals for a future climate regime after 2020 are being negotiated. Although at the moment of writing this document, there is not a common understanding on the shape of the new mitigation instruments, there is a great agreement about the importance of the co-benefits of such instruments, which may be even more important for the Least Developed Countries that their expected greenhouse gases emissions reductions. The results of the thesis are structured around three research questions: how are the CDM projects being implemented in Brazil generating local co-benefits that foster sustainable development and poverty reduction?; are other mitigation projects in Brazil that due to their more stringent sustainable development and/o poverty reduction criteria, any more successful at delivering co-benefits than regular CDM projects?; and what are the distinguishing characteristics of mitigation projects that are successful at delivering co-benefits? To answer these research questions, during four years it has been developed a research work structured in several phases and combining various methodologies. Those methodologies cover from the development of a co-benefits assessment model, to the application of such model both to a desktop analysis of 194 project design documents, and to 20 case studies using field data based on site visits to the project sites. With the completion of this research, it has been confirmed that current requirements to register a CDM project under the UNFCCC not substantially favour co-benefits at the local level. In addition, some practices and factors enablers of co-benefits have been identified. These characteristics may be taken into consideration to improve the current CDM and to support the definition of the new international market mechanisms for climate mitigation.

A telecom analytics framework for dynamic quality of service management

Since the beginning of Internet, Internet Service Providers (ISP) have seen the need of giving to users? traffic different treatments defined by agree- ments between ISP and customers. This procedure, known as Quality of Service Management, has not much changed in the last years (DiffServ and Deep Pack-et Inspection have been the most chosen mechanisms). However, the incremen-tal growth of Internet users and services jointly with the application of recent Ma- chine Learning techniques, open up the possibility of going one step for-ward in the smart management of network traffic. In this paper, we first make a survey of current tools and techniques for QoS Management. Then we intro-duce clustering and classifying Machine Learning techniques for traffic charac-terization and the concept of Quality of Experience. Finally, with all these com-ponents, we present a brand new framework that will manage in a smart way Quality of Service in a telecom Big Data based scenario, both for mobile and fixed communications.

Fusión de redes Bayesianas Gaussianas

Las redes Bayesianas constituyen un modelo ampliamente utilizado para la representación de relaciones de dependencia condicional en datos multivariantes. Su aprendizaje a partir de un conjunto de datos o expertos ha sido estudiado profundamente desde su concepción. Sin embargo, en determinados escenarios se demanda la obtención de un modelo común asociado a particiones de datos o conjuntos de expertos. En este caso, se trata el problema de fusión o agregación de modelos. Los trabajos y resultados en agregación de redes Bayesianas son de naturaleza variada, aunque escasos en comparación con aquellos de aprendizaje. En este documento, se proponen dos métodos para la agregación de redes Gaussianas, definidas como aquellas redes Bayesianas que modelan una distribución Gaussiana multivariante. Los métodos presentados son efectivos, precisos y producen redes con menor cantidad de parámetros en comparación con los modelos obtenidos individualmente. Además, constituyen un enfoque novedoso al incorporar nociones exploradas tradicionalmente por separado en el estado del arte. Futuras aplicaciones en entornos escalables hacen dichos métodos especialmente atractivos, dada su simplicidad y la ganancia en compacidad de la representación obtenida.---ABSTRACT---Bayesian networks are a widely used model for the representation of conditional dependence relationships among variables in multivariate data. The task of learning them from a data set or experts has been deeply studied since their conception. However, situations emerge where there is a need of obtaining a consensuated model from several data partitions or a set of experts. This situation is referred to as model fusion or aggregation. Results about Bayesian network aggregation, although rich in variety, have been scarce when compared to the learning task. In this context, two methods are proposed for the aggregation of Gaussian Bayesian networks, that is, Bayesian networks whose underlying modelled distribution is a multivariate Gaussian. Both methods are effective, precise and produce networks with fewer parameters in comparison with the models obtained by individual learning. They constitute a novel approach given that they incorporate notions traditionally explored separately in the state of the art. Future applications in scalable computer environments make such models specially attractive, given their simplicity and the gaining in sparsity of the produced model.

Real-Time Dynamic PGD Calculation of Non-Linear Soil Behavior

El estudio sísmico en los últimos 50 años y el análisis del comportamiento dinámico del suelo revelan que el comportamiento del suelo es altamente no lineal e histéretico incluso para pequeñas deformaciones. El comportamiento no lineal del suelo durante un evento sísmico tiene un papel predominante en el análisis de la respuesta de sitio. Los análisis unidimensionales de la respuesta sísmica del suelo son a menudo realizados utilizando procedimientos lineales equivalentes, que requieren generalmente pocos parámetros conocidos. Los análisis de respuesta de sitio no lineal tienen el potencial para simular con mayor precisión el comportamiento del suelo, pero su aplicación en la práctica se ha visto limitada debido a la selección de parámetros poco documentadas y poco claras, así como una inadecuada documentación de los beneficios del modelado no lineal en relación al modelado lineal equivalente. En el análisis del suelo, el comportamiento del suelo es aproximado como un sólido Kelvin-Voigt con un módulo de corte elástico y amortiguamiento viscoso. En el análisis lineal y no lineal del suelo se están considerando geometrías y modelos reológicos más complejos. El primero está siendo dirigido por considerar parametrizaciones más ricas del comportamiento linealizado y el segundo mediante el uso de multi-modo de los elementos de resorte-amortiguador con un eventual amortiguador fraccional. El uso del cálculo fraccional está motivado en gran parte por el hecho de que se requieren menos parámetros para lograr la aproximación exacta a los datos experimentales. Basándose en el modelo de Kelvin-Voigt, la viscoelasticidad es revisada desde su formulación más estándar a algunas descripciones más avanzada que implica la amortiguación dependiente de la frecuencia (o viscosidad), analizando los efectos de considerar derivados fraccionarios para representar esas contribuciones viscosas. Vamos a demostrar que tal elección se traduce en modelos más ricos que pueden adaptarse a diferentes limitaciones relacionadas con la potencia disipada, amplitud de la respuesta y el ángulo de fase. Por otra parte, el uso de derivados fraccionarios permite acomodar en paralelo, dentro de un análogo de Kelvin-Voigt generalizado, muchos amortiguadores que contribuyen a aumentar la flexibilidad del modelado para la descripción de los resultados experimentales. Obviamente estos modelos ricos implican muchos parámetros, los asociados con el comportamiento y los relacionados con los derivados fraccionarios. El análisis paramétrico de estos modelos requiere técnicas numéricas eficientemente capaces de simular comportamientos complejos. El método de la Descomposición Propia Generalizada (PGD) es el candidato perfecto para la construcción de este tipo de soluciones paramétricas. Podemos calcular off-line la solución paramétrica para el depósito de suelo, para todos los parámetros del modelo, tan pronto como tales soluciones paramétricas están disponibles, el problema puede ser resuelto en tiempo real, porque no se necesita ningún nuevo cálculo, el solucionador sólo necesita particularizar on-line la solución paramétrica calculada off-line, que aliviará significativamente el procedimiento de solución. En el marco de la PGD, parámetros de los materiales y los diferentes poderes de derivación podrían introducirse como extra-coordenadas en el procedimiento de solución. El cálculo fraccional y el nuevo método de reducción modelo llamado Descomposición Propia Generalizada han sido aplicado en esta tesis tanto al análisis lineal como al análisis no lineal de la respuesta del suelo utilizando un método lineal equivalente. ABSTRACT Studies of earthquakes over the last 50 years and the examination of dynamic soil behavior reveal that soil behavior is highly nonlinear and hysteretic even at small strains. Nonlinear behavior of soils during a seismic event has a predominant role in current site response analysis. One-dimensional seismic ground response analysis are often performed using equivalent-linear procedures, which require few, generally well-known parameters. Nonlinear analyses have the potential to more accurately simulate soil behavior, but their implementation in practice has been limited because of poorly documented and unclear parameter selection, as well as inadequate documentation of the benefits of nonlinear modeling relative to equivalent linear modeling. In soil analysis, soil behaviour is approximated as a Kelvin-Voigt solid with a elastic shear modulus and viscous damping. In linear and nonlinear analysis more complex geometries and more complex rheological models are being considered. The first is being addressed by considering richer parametrizations of the linearized behavior and the second by using multi-mode spring-dashpot elements with eventual fractional damping. The use of fractional calculus is motivated in large part by the fact that fewer parameters are required to achieve accurate approximation of experimental data. Based in Kelvin-Voigt model the viscoelastodynamics is revisited from its most standard formulation to some more advanced description involving frequency-dependent damping (or viscosity), analyzing the effects of considering fractional derivatives for representing such viscous contributions. We will prove that such a choice results in richer models that can accommodate different constraints related to the dissipated power, response amplitude and phase angle. Moreover, the use of fractional derivatives allows to accommodate in parallel, within a generalized Kelvin-Voigt analog, many dashpots that contribute to increase the modeling flexibility for describing experimental findings. Obviously these rich models involve many parameters, the ones associated with the behavior and the ones related to the fractional derivatives. The parametric analysis of all these models require efficient numerical techniques able to simulate complex behaviors. The Proper Generalized Decomposition (PGD) is the perfect candidate for producing such kind of parametric solutions. We can compute off-line the parametric solution for the soil deposit, for all parameter of the model, as soon as such parametric solutions are available, the problem can be solved in real time because no new calculation is needed, the solver only needs particularize on-line the parametric solution calculated off-line, which will alleviate significantly the solution procedure. Within the PGD framework material parameters and the different derivation powers could be introduced as extra-coordinates in the solution procedure. Fractional calculus and the new model reduction method called Proper Generalized Decomposition has been applied in this thesis to the linear analysis and nonlinear soil response analysis using a equivalent linear method.

Autoradiographic characterization of [3H]-5-HT-moduline binding sites in rodent brain and their relationship to 5-HT1B receptors

5-HT-moduline is an endogenous tetrapeptide [Leu-Ser-Ala-Leu (LSAL)] that was first isolated from bovine brain tissue. To understand the physiological role of this tetrapeptide, we studied the localization of 5-HT-moduline binding sites in rat and mouse brains. Quantitative data obtained with a gaseous detector of β-particles (β-imager) indicated that [3H]-5-HT-moduline bound specifically to rat brain sections with high affinity (Kd = 0.77 nM and Bmax = 0.26 dpm/mm2). Using film autoradiography in parallel, we found that 5-HT-moduline binding sites were expressed in a variety of rat and mouse brain structures. In 5-HT1B receptor knock-out mice, the specific binding of [3H]-5-HT-moduline was not different from background labeling, indicating that 5-HT-moduline targets are exclusively located on the 5-HT1B receptors. Although the distribution of 5-HT-moduline binding sites was similar to that of 5-HT1B receptors, they did not overlap totally. Differences in distribution patterns were found in regions containing either high levels of 5-HT1B receptors such as globus pallidus and subiculum that were poorly labeled or in other regions such as dentate gyrus of hippocampus and cortex where the relative density of 5-HT-moduline binding sites was higher than that of 5-HT1B receptors. In conclusion, our data, based on autoradiographic localization, indicate that 5-HT-moduline targets are located on 5-HT1B receptors present both on 5-HT afferents and postsynaptic neurons. By interacting specifically with 5-HT1B receptors, this tetrapeptide may play a pivotal role in pathological states such as stress that involves the dysfunction of 5-HT neurotransmission.

Dynamics of fluorescence fluctuations in green fluorescent protein observed by fluorescence correlation spectroscopy

We have investigated the pH dependence of the dynamics of conformational fluctuations of green fluorescent protein mutants EGFP (F64L/S65T) and GFP-S65T in small ensembles of molecules in solution by using fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS). FCS utilizes time-resolved measurements of fluctuations in the molecular fluorescence emission for determination of the intrinsic dynamics and thermodynamics of all processes that affect the fluorescence. Fluorescence excitation of a bulk solution of EGFP decreases to zero at low pH (pKa = 5.8) paralleled by a decrease of the absorption at 488 nm and an increase at 400 nm. Protonation of the hydroxyl group of Tyr-66, which is part of the chromophore, induces these changes. When FCS is used the fluctuations in the protonation state of the chromophore are time resolved. The autocorrelation function of fluorescence emission shows contributions from two chemical relaxation processes as well as diffusional concentration fluctuations. The time constant of the fast, pH-dependent chemical process decreases with pH from 300 μs at pH 7 to 45 μs at pH 5, while the time-average fraction of molecules in a nonfluorescent state increases to 80% in the same range. A second, pH-independent, process with a time constant of 340 μs and an associated fraction of 13% nonfluorescent molecules is observed between pH 8 and 11, possibly representing an internal proton transfer process and associated conformational rearrangements. The FCS data provide direct measures of the dynamics and the equilibrium properties of the protonation processes. Thus FCS is a convenient, intrinsically calibrated method for pH measurements in subfemtoliter volumes with nanomolar concentrations of EGFP.

Polynesian origins: Insights from the Y chromosome

The question surrounding the colonization of Polynesia has remained controversial. Two hypotheses, one postulating Taiwan as the putative homeland and the other asserting a Melanesian origin of the Polynesian people, have received considerable attention. In this work, we present haplotype data based on the distribution of 19 biallelic polymorphisms on the Y chromosome in a sample of 551 male individuals from 36 populations living in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Micronesia, Melanesia, and Polynesia. Surprisingly, nearly none of the Taiwanese Y haplotypes were found in Micronesia and Polynesia. Likewise, a Melanesian-specific haplotype was not found among the Polynesians. However, all of the Polynesian, Micronesian, and Taiwanese haplotypes are present in the extant Southeast Asian populations. Evidently, the Y-chromosome data do not lend support to either of the prevailing hypotheses. Rather, we postulate that Southeast Asia provided a genetic source for two independent migrations, one toward Taiwan and the other toward Polynesia through island Southeast Asia.

On the origin of and phylogenetic relationships among living amphibians

The phylogenetic relationships among the three orders of modern amphibians (Caudata, Gymnophiona, and Anura) have been estimated based on both morphological and molecular evidence. Most morphological and paleontological studies of living and fossil amphibians support the hypothesis that salamanders and frogs are sister lineages (the Batrachia hypothesis) and that caecilians are more distantly related. Previous interpretations of molecular data based on nuclear and mitochondrial rRNA sequences suggested that salamanders and caecilians are sister groups to the exclusion of frogs. In an attempt to resolve this apparent conflict, the complete mitochondrial genomes of a salamander (Mertensiella luschani) and a caecilian (Typhlonectes natans) were determined (16,656 and 17,005 bp, respectively) and compared with previously published sequences from a frog (Xenopus laevis) and several other groups of vertebrates. Phylogenetic analyses of the mitochondrial data supported with high bootstrap values the monophyly of living amphibians with respect to other living groups of tetrapods, and a sister group relationship of salamanders and frogs. The lack of phylogenetically informative sites in the previous rRNA data sets (because of its shorter size and higher among-site rate variation) likely explains the discrepancy between our results and those based on previous molecular data. Strong support of the Batrachia hypothesis from both molecule- and morphology-based studies provides a robust phylogenetic framework that will be helpful to comparative studies among the three living orders of amphibians and will permit better understanding of the considerably divergent vertebral, brain, and digit developmental patterns found in frogs and salamanders.

Limnologia, balneabilidade e impactos ambientais: uma análise temporal e espacial na represa do Lobo (Broa), Itirapina/Brotas - SP

Considerando a importância da represa do Lobo, os indícios de eutrofização encontrados na área e tendo a recreação como seu principal uso, buscou-se, neste trabalho, avaliar a qualidade da água nos rios tributários e na represa, e sua adequação a balneabilidade. Para os afluentes do sistema, estimando-se, ainda, a contribuição dos mesmos ao aporte de materiais à represa, foram amostrados o córrego do Geraldo, a confluência dos córregos Água Branca e Limoeiro, o rio Itaqueri (antes da mineradora), o ribeirão do Lobo, o córrego das Perdizes, avaliando-se parâmetros físicos, químicos e biológicos da água e a vazão dos rios, em dois períodos (agosto/setembro e dezembro) de 2002. Os resultados, com base no índice de estado trófico, indicam que a maioria dos tributários, com exceção do córrego Água Branca (eutrófico), é oligotrófico. Na represa o estudo teve avaliações mensais para alguns parâmetros (nutrientes totais e dissolvidos, clorofila total e material em suspensão) e semanais para outros (pH, condutividade elétrica, temperatura da água, oxigênio dissolvido e coliformes fecais) ao longo de um ano (dezembro de 2001 a dezembro de 2002), em nove pontos, abrangendo a região de foz do rio Itaqueri, córrego do Geraldo e ribeirão do Lobo, quatro pontos distribuídos na praia do balneário Santo Antônio e um ponto a jusante da represa. A foz do rio Itaqueri apresentou-se meso-eutrófica no período, enquanto os outros pontos avaliados, oligotróficos. Apesar da condição favorável apresentada, a análise temporal dos dados (com estudos realizados nos últimos 30 anos), mostra uma evidente e preocupante alteração nas condições originárias desse sistema, indicando um evidente processo de eutrofização do reservatório, associado aos usos e ocupação da bacia hidrográfica (resíduos domiciliares, turismo, agricultura e pecuária). Em relação a balneabilidade os principais pontos de contaminação fecal na represa são as entradas dos tributários, enquanto o corpo da represa foi considerado excelente em todo o período amostrado. O córrego Água Branca, como corpo receptor do esgoto de Itirapina, é o mais comprometido dos corpos de água avaliados, além de ser o principal contribuinte de nutrientes e coliformes fecais para a represa do Lobo, através do rio Itaqueri.

Autorregulando e autodeterminando: duas formas de alunos de pós-graduação aprenderem a aprender contabilidade

O uso assertivo e eficiente das estratégias de aprendizagem depende, muitas vezes, da compreensão e consideração de aspectos psicológicos e motivacionais. O adequado emprego de estratégias de aprendizagem se reflete no desempenho acadêmico, no domínio de construtos e modelos e no amadurecimento crítico e científico. A presente tese defende que há uma relação entre as estratégias de aprendizagem autorregulada e as estratégias de aprendizagem autodeterminada predominantes em alunos de mestrado e doutorado em Contabilidade. O estudo se justifica, porquanto, porque além de inaugurar uma linha de pesquisa ainda inédita no contexto da Contabilidade Humana, seus resultados destacam um original entendimento da relação da aprendizagem com a regulação e a motivação pessoal. Tem como objetivo principal apresentar diagnóstico, dimensões e correlações das estratégias de aprendizagem autorregulada e aprendizagem autodeterminada de alunos de programas de pós-graduação stricto sensu em Contabilidade no Brasil. Participaram do survey 516 respondentes, sendo 383 mestrandos e 133 doutorandos. Foram aplicados dois instrumentos psicométricos: Self-Regulated Learning Strategies (SRLS) e Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (MSLQ). O modelo operacional de pesquisa delineou a formulação de oito hipóteses, sendo que a primeira delas sustenta a defesa da tese, enquanto as demais defendem a influência das variáveis idade, gênero, tipo de curso, estágio no curso, tipo de instituição de graduação, nota do curso atribuída pela Capes e graus de instrução dos pais nos níveis de Self-Regulated Learning (SRL) e Self-Determination Theory (SDT). A partir da análise multivariada dos dados, os resultados corroboraram a tese e a influência do gênero no nível de SRL. A metaconclusão desta tese ratifica os estudos referenciados, confirmando que a aprendizagem pode ser dominada e controlada pelo indivíduo, ao se adotar estratégias individuais de regulação e motivação. Uma importante contribuição desta pesquisa consiste em oferecer conclusões empíricas que podem ajudar docentes, discentes, pesquisadores, instituições de ensino e programas de pós-graduação a compreender mais sistematicamente os aspectos da aprendizagem autorregulada e da aprendizagem autodeterminada que caracterizam o aluno de Contabilidade. Limitações importantes deste estudo podem ser vistas como oportunidades para pesquisas futuras: a amostra envolve um público específico, a pesquisa survey pode apresentar vieses de método comum e a baixa participação de alunos de mestrado profissional. Estudos futuros poderão adotar outras estratégias metodológicas e/ou envolver amostras mais diversificadas ou em maior lastro temporal

Higher order elicitability and Osband’s principle

A statistical functional, such as the mean or the median, is called elicitable if there is a scoring function or loss function such that the correct forecast of the functional is the unique minimizer of the expected score. Such scoring functions are called strictly consistent for the functional. The elicitability of a functional opens the possibility to compare competing forecasts and to rank them in terms of their realized scores. In this paper, we explore the notion of elicitability for multi-dimensional functionals and give both necessary and sufficient conditions for strictly consistent scoring functions. We cover the case of functionals with elicitable components, but we also show that one-dimensional functionals that are not elicitable can be a component of a higher order elicitable functional. In the case of the variance, this is a known result. However, an important result of this paper is that spectral risk measures with a spectral measure with finite support are jointly elicitable if one adds the “correct” quantiles. A direct consequence of applied interest is that the pair (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall) is jointly elicitable under mild conditions that are usually fulfilled in risk management applications.

(Table T1) Geochemical composition of ODP Site 177-1089 sediments

A primary objective of Ocean Drilling Program Leg 177 was to document changes in circulation and biogeochemical cycling on glacial/interglacial time scales across a wide latitudinal range of the south Atlantic Ocean. One of the more northerly sites drilled, Site 1089 (41°S, 10°E), is located within the present-day Subantarctic Zone, south of the Subtropical Front. The drilling site itself is located in the southern Cape Basin at a water depth of 4620 m. Pleistocene sediments at this site are dominated by interbedded carbonate and opal oozes. Initial shipboard stratigraphy identified the opal-rich sediments as deposited during glacial intervals and the carbonate-rich sediments as deposited during interglacial intervals (Gersonde, Hodell, Blum, et al., 1999, doi:10.2973/odp.proc.ir.177.1999). Postcruise isotopic stratigraphy, however, verified that this site displayed a Pacific Pleistocene sedimentation pattern with glacial intervals marked by high carbonate content (Hodell and Charles, 1999). To assess changes in biological productivity and terrigenous inputs at this site, a number of geochemical indicators were determined. Phosphorus concentrations and P/metal ratios were determined to assess changes in export production on glacial/interglacial time scales. Metal concentrations, along with elemental ratios, were used to assess terrigenous inputs. Sediment geochemistry allows us to identify changes in the lithologic component using elemental data based on Fe, Al, and Ti concentrations. Records of concentrations and ratios of biologically related elements identify changes in export production. The P and metal results are important to assess the glacial/interglacial changes in P burial and the relationships between a major nutrient such as P with metals (and possibly trace nutrients) like Fe.