940 resultados para Multi-cicle, Expectation, and Conditional Estimation Method


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Se aplican métodos ensayados en otros países (Scenic Beauty Estimation Method, SBE) para la determinación de las cualidades estéticas de masas forestales de interés recreativo a parcelas en diversas localizaciones del haya en Cataluña, abarcando diferencias significativas en estación, origen, edad y forma de masa. Las valoraciones se refieren a las cualidades estéticas de los rodales de haya vistos desde el interior del bosque, es decir, tal como son apreciados por parte de los visitantes de los montes. Las valoraciones se obtienen a través de paneles de observadores en sesiones fotográficas, se transforman a una escala común y se relacionan mediante análisis de regresión a las variables dasométricas tomadas en las parcelas de inventario. El desarrollo de modelos estadísticos que describen preferencias sociales permite medir la aportación de las diferentes variables dasométricas a la mejora estética de las masas de haya, y puede servir como guía en la ordenación de hayedos en que el uso público sea predominante o muy importante.

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Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related death in developed countries. Early detection of CRC leads to decreased CRC mortality. A blood-based CRC screening test is highly desirable due to limited invasiveness and high acceptance rate among patients compared to currently used fecal occult blood testing and colonoscopy. Here we describe the discovery and validation of a 29-gene panel in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) for the detection of CRC and adenomatous polyps (AP). Blood samples were prospectively collected from a multicenter, case-control clinical study. First, we profiled 93 samples with 667 candidate and 3 reference genes by high throughput real-time PCR (OpenArray system). After analysis, 160 genes were retained and tested again on 51 additional samples. Low expressed and unstable genes were discarded resulting in a final dataset of 144 samples profiled with 140 genes. To define which genes, alone or in combinations had the highest potential to discriminate AP and/or CRC from controls, data were analyzed by a combination of univariate and multivariate methods. A list of 29 potentially discriminant genes was compiled and evaluated for its predictive accuracy by penalized logistic regression and bootstrap. This method discriminated AP >1cm and CRC from controls with a sensitivity of 59% and 75%, respectively, with 91% specificity. The behavior of the 29-gene panel was validated with a LightCycler 480 real-time PCR platform, commonly adopted by clinical laboratories. In this work we identified a 29-gene panel expressed in PBMC that can be used for developing a novel minimally-invasive test for accurate detection of AP and CRC using a standard real-time PCR platform.

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Diplomityön tavoitteena on tutkia ja kehittää menetelmä tuotekehitysprojektin ajalliselle ennustamiselle tuotteen siirtyessä tuotekehityksestä massatuotantoon. Ajallisen ennustamisen merkitys korostuu mitä lähemmäksi uuden tuotteen massatuotannon aloittaminen (ramp-up) tulee, koska strategiset päätökset koskien mm. uusia tuotantolinjoja, materiaalien- ja komponenttien tilaamisia sekä vahvistus asiakastoimitusten aloittamista täytyy tehdä jo paljon aikaisemmin.Työ aloitetaan tutkimalla rinnakkaista insinöörityötä (concurrent engineering) sekä suoritusten mittaamista (performance measurement), joiden sisältämistä ajattelumalleista, työkaluista ja tekniikoista hahmottuivat ajallisen ennustettavuuden onnistumisen edellytykset. Näitä olivat suunnitellun tuotteen ja tuotekehitysprosessin laatu sekä resurssien ja tiimien kompetenssit. Toisaalta ajalliseen ennustettavuuteen vaikuttavat myös projektien riippuvuudet ulkoisista toimittajista ja heidän aikatauluistaan.Teoreettisena viitekehyksenä käytetään Bradford L. Goldense:n luomaa mallia tuotekehityksen proaktiiviseksi mittaamiseksi sekä sovelletaan W. Edward Deming:in jatkuvan parantamisen silmukkaa. Työssä kehitetään Ramp-up Predictability konsepti, joka koostuu keskipitkän ja pitkän aikavälin ennustamisesta. Työhön ei kuulunut mallin käyttöönotto ja seuranta.Toimenpide ehdotuksena esitetään lisätutkimusta mittareiden keskinäisestä korrelaatioista ja niiden luotettavuudesta sekä mallien tarjoamista mahdollisuuksista muille tulosyksiköille.

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This study highlighted the effect of planting coast-cross grass and forage peanut cv. Amarilis between rows of Natal oranges on spreading of Guignardia citricarpa ascospores and consequent citrus black spot control. Treatments evaluated were: 1- conventional cultivation, free of fungicides; 2- conventional cultivation, using protective fungicides; 3- inter-crop cultivation of coast-cross grass between rows of citrus crops and; 4- inter-cropping cultivation of forage peanut between the rows of citrus crops. Quest Volumetric Spore SystemTM traps were set in order to determine the number of ascospores released. A total of 33 inspections were conducted weekly, from the end of August until early September the following year. A diagrammatic scale was used to determine the severity of the disease as well as the percentage of fruits having a commercial standard. The coast-cross grass was more effective in reducing the number of ascospores produced, whose average statistics were lower than in the conventional treatments, free-fungicides. The inter-crop and conventional cultivation method coupled with fungicide treatment was more effective in reducing the severity of citrus black spot symptoms, and differs statistically from the fungicide-free control method. These methods also resulted in a higher percentage of fruits of a commercial standard, ranging from the 89% through the 91% percentile, and the cultivation, free of fungicides, fell within the 73%.

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Tämän diplomityön tarkoituksena on selvittää paperinvalmistuslinjan energiankulutusmittaus paperitehtaalla ja kehittää sen perusteella mittausmenetelmä. Tavoitteena on tutkia ja ohjeistaa mittaustapahtuma, kun apuna käytetään prosessimittauksia. Diplomityön teoriaosassa käsitellään paperinvalmistuslinjaa ja sen osaprosesseja sekä paperitehtaan prosessiohjausjärjestelmiä. Lisäksi työssä kerrotaan kirjallisuudesta löytyvistä paperitehtaan energiankulutusmittauksista, taseiden soveltamisesta paperinvalmistuslinjaan, osaprosessien energiankulutuskohteista ja energiakäytön arvioinnista. Näiden tietojen perusteella kehitetään mittausmenetelmä, joka soveltuu normaalituotannossa oleviin LWC-, SC-, sanomalehti-, kartonki- ja hienopaperinvalmistuslinjoihin sekä näiden osaprosesseille. Kehitettyä mittausmenetelmää testattiin case-tapauksiin ja kokemuksia kirjattiin ylös. Mittausmenetelmän suurin rajoite on prosessin paperitehdaskohtaisuus. Menetelmästä rajataan pois ilmanvaihto-, lämminvesi- ja jäähdytysvesijärjestelmien energiavirrat, koska näistä ei yleensä ole riittävästi mittauksia. LTO:ssa poistoilmasta talteen otettu energiavirta kuitenkin otetaan huomioon. Se vähentää korvausilman lämmittämiseen tarvittavaa energiaa. Diplomityössä selvisi, että paperivalmistuslinjan energiankulutusmittaus voidaan tehdä kustannustehokkaasti ja kattavasti hyödyntäen olemassa olevia prosessimittauksia. Mittaustuloksista on mahdollista laskea ominaisenergiankulutus, jota voidaan verrata toisiin linjoihin kun mittauksissa otetaan huomioon prosessin parametrit, mittalaitteiden mittausalue, ajankohta, mittapisteiden määrä ja sijainti.

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ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE: The aim of this survey was to describe which traditional medicines (TM) are most commonly used for non-communicable diseases (NCD - diabetes, hypertension related to excess weight and obesity) in Pacific islands and with what perceived effectiveness. NCD, especially prevalent in the Pacific, have been subject to many public health interventions, often with rather disappointing results. Innovative interventions are required; one hypothesis is that some local, traditional approaches may have been overlooked. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The method used was a retrospective treatment-outcome study in a nation-wide representative sample of the adult population (about 15,000 individuals) of the Republic of Palau, an archipelago of Micronesia. RESULTS: From 188 respondents (61% female, age 16-87, median 48,), 30 different plants were used, mostly self-prepared (69%), or from a traditional healer (18%). For excess weight, when comparing the two most frequent plants, Morinda citrifolia L. was associated with more adequate outcome than Phaleria nishidae Kaneh. (P=0.05). In case of diabetes, when comparing Phaleria nishidae (=Phaleria nisidai) and Morinda citrifolia, the former was statistically more often associated with the reported outcome "lower blood sugar" (P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Statistical association between a plant used and reported outcome is not a proof of effectiveness or safety, but it can help select plants of interest for further studies, e.g. through a reverse pharmacology process, in search of local products which may have a positive impact on population health.

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Previous studies have demonstrated that clinical pulpal pain can induce the expression of pro-inflammatory neuropeptides in the adjacent gingival crevice fluid (GCF). Vasoactive agents such as substance P (SP) are known to contribute to the inflammatory type of pain and are associated with increased blood flow. More recent animal studies have shown that application of capsaicin on alveolar mucosa provokes pain and neurogenic vasodilatation in the adjacent gingiva. Pain-associated inflammatory reactions may initiate expression of several pro- and anti-inflammatory mediators. Collagenase-2 (MMP-8) has been considered to be the major destructive protease, especially in the periodontitis-affected gingival crevice fluid (GCF). MMP-8 originates mostly from neutrophil leukocytes, the first line of defence cells that exist abundantly in GCF, especially in inflammation. With this background, we wished to clarify the spatial extensions and differences between tooth-pain stimulation and capsaicin-induced neurogenic vasodilatation in human gingiva. Experiments were carried out to study whether tooth stimulation and capsaicin stimulation of alveolar mucosa would induce changes in GCF MMP-8 levels and whether tooth stimulation would release neuropeptide SP in GCF. The experiments were carried out on healthy human volunteers. During the experiments, moderate and high intensity painful tooth stimulation was performed by a constant current tooth stimulator. Moderate tooth stimulation activates A-delta fibres, while high stimulation also activates C-fibres. Painful stimulation of the gingiva was achieved by topical application of capsaicin-moistened filter paper on the mucosal surface. Capsaicin is known to activate selectively nociceptive C-fibres of stimulated tissue. Pain-evoked vasoactive changes in gingivomucosal tissues were mapped by laser Doppler imaging (LDI), which is a sophisticated and non-invasive method for studying e.g. spatial and temporal characteristics of pain- and inflammation-evoked blood flow changes in gingivomucosal tissues. Pain-evoked release of MMP-8 in GCF samples was studied by immunofluorometric assay (IFMA) and Western immunoblotting. The SP levels in GCF were analysed by Enzyme immunoassay (EIA). During the experiments, subjective stimulus-evoked pain responses were determined by a visual analogue pain scale. Unilateral stimulation of alveolar mucosa and attached gingiva by capsaicin evoked a distinct neurogenic vasodilatation in the ipsilateral gingiva, which attenuated rapidly at the midline. Capsaicin stimulation of alveolar mucosa provoked clear inflammatory reactions. In contrast to capsaicin stimuli, tooth stimulation produced symmetrical vasodilatations bilaterally in the gingiva. The ipsilateral responses were significantly smaller during tooth stimulation than during capsaicin stimuli. The current finding – that tooth stimulation evokes bilateral vasodilatation while capsaicin stimulation of the gingiva mainly produces unilateral vasodilatation – emphasises the usefulness of LDI in clarifying spatial features of neurogenic vasoactive changes in the intra-oral tissues. Capsaicin stimulation of the alveolar mucosa induced significant elevations in MMP-8 levels and activation in GCF of the adjacent teeth. During the experiments, no marked changes occurred in MMP-8 levels in the GCF of distantly located teeth. Painful stimulation of the upper incisor provoked elevations in GCF MMP-8 and SP levels of the stimulated tooth. The GCF MMP-8 and SP levels of the non-stimulated teeth were not changed. These results suggest that capsaicin-induced inflammatory reactions in gingivomucosal tissues do not cross the midline in the anterior maxilla. The enhanced reaction found during stimulation of alveolar mucosa indicates that alveolar mucosa is more sensitive to chemical irritants than the attached gingiva. Analysis of these data suggests that capsaicin-evoked neurogenic inflammation in the gingiva can trigger the expression and activation of MMP-8 in GCF of the adjacent teeth. In this study, it is concluded that experimental tooth pain at C-fibre intensity can induce local elevations in MMP-8 and SP levels in GCF. Depending on the role of MMP-8 in inflammation, in addition to surrogated tissue destruction, the elevated MMP-8 in GCF may also reflect accelerated local defensive and anti-inflammatory reactions.

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We consider one-seller assignment markets with multi-unit demands and prove that the associated game is buyers-submodular. Therefore the core is non-empty and it has a lattice structure which contains the allocation where every buyer receives his marginal contribution. We prove that in this kind of market, every pairwise-stable outcome is associated to a competitive equilibrium and viceversa. We study conditions under which the buyers-optimal and the seller-optimal core allocations are competitive equilibrium payoff vectors. Moreover, we characterize the markets for which the core coincidences with the set of competitive equilibria payoff vectors. When agents behave strategically, we introduce a procedure that implements the buyers-optimal core allocation as the unique subgame perfect Nash equilibrium outcome.

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Overdiagnosis is the diagnosis of an abnormality that bears no substantial health hazard and no benefit for patients to be aware of. Resulting mainly from the use of increasingly sensitive screening and diagnostic tests, as well as broadened definitions of conditions requiring an intervention, overdiagnosis is a growing but still largely misunderstood public health issue. Fear of missing a diagnosis or of litigation, financial incentives or patient's need of reassurance are further causes of overdiagnosis. The main consequence of overdiagnosis is overtreatment. Treating an overdiagnosed condition bears no benefit but can cause harms and generates costs. Overtreatment also diverts health professionals from caring for those most severely ill. Recognition of overdiagnosis due to screening is challenging since it is rarely identifiable at the individual level and difficult to quantify precisely at the population level. Overdiagnosis exists even for screening of proven efficacy and efficiency. Measures to reduce overdiagnosis due to screening include heightened sensitization of health professionals and patients, active surveillance and deferred treatment until early signs of disease progression and prognosis estimation through biomarkers (including molecular) profiling. Targeted screening and balanced information on its risk and benefits would also help limit overdiagnosis. Research is needed to assess the the public health burden and implications of overdiagnosis due to screening activity.

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The purpose of this study was to increase the understanding of the role and nature of trust in asymmetric technology partnership formation. In the knowledge-based "learning race" knowledge is considered as a primary source for competitive advantage. In the emerging ICT sector the high pace of technological change, the convergence of technologies and industries as well as the increasing complexity and uncertainty have forced even the largest players to seek cooperation for complementary knowledge and capabilities. Small technology firms need the complementary resources and legitimacy of the large firms to grow and compete in the global market place. Most of the earlier research indicates, however, that partnerships with asymmetric size, managerial resources and cultures have failed. A basic assumption supported by earlier research was that trust is a critical factor in asymmetric technology partnership formation. Asymmetric technology partnership formation is a dynamic and multi-dimensional process, and consequently a holistic research approach was selected. Research issue was approached from different levels: the individual decision-maker, the firm and the relationship between the parties. Also the impact of the dynamic environment and technology content was analyzed. A multitheoretical approach and a qualitative research method with in-depth interviews in five large ICT companies and eight small ICT companies enabled a holistic and rich view of the research issue. Study contributes on the scarce understanding on the nature and evolution of trust in asymmetric technology partnership formation. It sheds also light on the specific nature of asymmetric technology partnerships. The partnerships were found to be tentative and the diverse strategic intent of small and large technology firms appeared as a major challenge. The role of the boundary spanner was highlighted as a possibility to match the incompatible organizational cultures. A shared vision was found to be a pre-condition for individual-based fast trust leading to intuitive decision-making and experimentation. The relationships were tentative and they were continuously re-evaluated through the key actors' sense making of the technology content, asymmetry and the dynamic environment. A multi-dimensional conceptualization for trust was created and propositions on the role and nature of trust for further research are given. The purpose of this study was to increase the understanding of the role and nature of trust in asymmetric technology partnership formation. In the knowledge-based "learning race" knowledge is considered as a primary source for competitive advantage. In the emerging ICT sector the high pace of technological change, the convergence of technologies and industries as well as the increasing complexity and uncertainty have forced even the largest players to seek cooperation for complementary knowledge and capabilities. Small technology firms need the complementary resources and legitimacy of the large firms to grow and compete in the global market place. Most of the earlier research indicates, however, that partnerships with asymmetric size, managerial resources and cultures have failed. A basic assumption supported by earlier research was that trust is a critical factor in asymmetric technology partnership formation. Asymmetric technology partnership formation is a dynamic and multi-dimensional process, and consequently a holistic research approach was selected. Research issue was approached from different levels: the individual decision-maker, the firm and the relationship between the parties. Also the impact of the dynamic environment and technology content was analyzed. A multitheoretical approach and a qualitative research method with in-depth interviews in five large ICT companies and eight small ICT companies enabled a holistic and rich view of the research issue. Study contributes on the scarce understanding on the nature and evolution of trust in asymmetric technology partnership formation. It sheds also light on the specific nature of asymmetric technology partnerships. The partnerships were found to be tentative and the diverse strategic intent of small and large technology firms appeared as a major challenge. The role of the boundary spanner was highlighted as a possibility to match the incompatible organizational cultures. A shared vision was found to be a pre-condition for individual-based fast trust leading to intuitive decision-making and experimentation. The relationships were tentative and they were continuously re-evaluated through the key actors' sense making of the technology content, asymmetry and the dynamic environment. A multi-dimensional conceptualization for trust was created and propositions on the role and nature of trust for further research are given.

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Tässä diplomityössä tarkastellaan tietojärjestelmän kehitystyötä, vaatimusmäärittelyä ja toteutustavan selvitystä monimutkaisen organisaation näkökulmasta. Työn tavoitteena on tehdä tiedonhaun opetukseen liittyvän tietojärjestelmän esitutkimus, vaatimusmäärittely ja toteutustavan arviointi. Tietojärjestelmän kehitystyötä tarkastellaan vesiputous-vaihejakomalliin kuuluvien eri vaiheiden avulla. Tietojärjestelmän vaatimusmäärittelyä tarkastellaan sen tavoitteiden, vaiheiden ja erilaisten vaatimusten kautta. Lisäksi tutkitaan kehysorganisaation vaikutusta tietojärjestelmän kehitystyöhön ja vaatimusmäärittelyyn. Työn tuloksista oli nähtävissä, että kehysorganisaatio ja sen monimutkaisuus vaikuttavat tietojärjestelmän kehitystyöhön ja sitä kautta vaatimusmäärittelyn tekemiseen monin tavoin. Nykyisten tietojärjestelmän kehitystyömallien lisäksi on jouduttu miettimään uusia keinoja siihen, miten tekniset vaatimukset yhdistetään liiketaloudellisiin ja organisatorisiin ongelmiin. Työn empiirisen osuuden tuloksena kerättiin Tiedonhaun opetus -tietojärjestelmän vaatimusmäärittelyyn tarvittavat tiedot. Lisäksi selvitettiin miten ja millä resursseilla esitetyn mukainen tietojärjestelmä olisi mahdollista toteuttaa. Erillistä vaatimusmäärittelydokumenttia ei toteutettu, koska tietojärjestelmän mahdolliseksi toteutustavaksi erottui kaksi toisistaan poikkeavaa vaihtoehtoa. Vaatimusmäärittelydokumentin tarkempi muoto hahmottuu sitten, kun tietojärjestelmän toteutustavan periaatteet ovat selvillä.

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This chapter presents possible uses and examples of Monte Carlo methods for the evaluation of uncertainties in the field of radionuclide metrology. The method is already well documented in GUM supplement 1, but here we present a more restrictive approach, where the quantities of interest calculated by the Monte Carlo method are estimators of the expectation and standard deviation of the measurand, and the Monte Carlo method is used to propagate the uncertainties of the input parameters through the measurement model. This approach is illustrated by an example of the activity calibration of a 103Pd source by liquid scintillation counting and the calculation of a linear regression on experimental data points. An electronic supplement presents some algorithms which may be used to generate random numbers with various statistical distributions, for the implementation of this Monte Carlo calculation method.

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An increased understanding of intraspecific seed packaging (i.e. seed size/number strategy) variation across different environments may improve current knowledge of the ecological forces that drive seed evolution in plants. In particular, pre-dispersal seed predation may influence seed packaging strategies, triggering a reduction of the resources allocated to undamaged seeds within the preyed fruits. Assessing plant reactions to pre-dispersal seed predation is crucial to a better understanding of predation effects, but the response of plants to arthropod attacks remains unexplored. We have assessed the effect of cone predation on the size and viability of undamaged seeds in populations of Juniperus thurifera with contrasting seed packaging strategies, namely, North African populations with single-large-seeded cones and South European populations with multi-small-seeded cones. Our results show that the incidence of predation was lower on the single-large-seeded African cones than on the multi-small-seeded European ones. Seeds from non-preyed cones were also larger and had a higher germination success than uneaten seeds from preyed cones, but only in populations with multi-seeded cones and in cones attacked by Trisetacus sp., suggesting a differential plastic response to predation. It is possible that pre-dispersal seed predation has been a strong selective pressure in European populations with high cone predation rates, being a process which maintains multi-small-seeded cones and empty seeds as a strategy to save some seeds from predation. Conversely, pre-dispersal predation might not have a strong effect in the African populations with single-large-seeded cones characterized by seed germination and filling rates higher than those in the European populations. Our results indicate that differences in pre-dispersal seed predators and predation levels may affect both selection on and intraspecific variation in seed packaging.

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In this paper the rift between Jevons and Mill over the method of political economy serves as a prehistory to recent attempts of behavioural economists to once again explain economic behaviour by taking recourse to mankind's physiology. While Mill relied on the association psychology and its introspective method to establish indubitable first principles, Jevons scorned all recourse to introspection. As exemplified for Jevons's theory of labour, psychophysiology gave Jevons the means to think about economic behaviour in terms of functional form, and promised its assessment by means of experiments. Thus levelling down the Victorian distinction between mind and matter, Jevons turned political economy into social physics.

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Chlamydia psittaci and Chlamydia abortus are closely related intracellular bacteria exhibiting different tissue tropism that may cause severe but distinct infection in humans. C. psittaci causes psittacosis, a respiratory zoonotic infection transmitted by birds. C. abortus is an abortigenic agent in small ruminants, which can also colonize the human placenta and lead to foetal death and miscarriage. Infections caused by C. psittaci and C. abortus are underestimated mainly due to diagnosis difficulties resulting from their strict intracellular growth. We developed a duplex real-time PCR to detect and distinguish these two bacteria in clinical samples. The first PCR (PCR1) targeted a sequence of the 16S-23S rRNA operon allowing the detection of both C. psittaci and C. abortus. The second PCR (PCR2) targeted the coding DNA sequence CPSIT_0607 unique to C. psittaci. The two PCRs showed 100 % detection for ≥ 10 DNA copies per reaction (1000 copies ml- 1). Using a set of 120 samples, including bacterial reference strains, clinical specimens and infected cell culture material, we monitored 100 % sensitivity and 100 % specificity for the detection of C. psittaci and C. abortus for PCR1. When PCR1 was positive, PCR2 could discriminate C. psittaci from C. abortus with a positive predictive value of 100 % and a negative predictive value of 88 %. In conclusion, this new duplex PCR represents a low-cost and time-saving method with high-throughput potential, expected to improve the routine diagnosis of psittacosis and pregnancy complication in large-scale screening programs and also during outbreaks.