Approximate Bayesian Computation for astronomical model analysis : a case study in galaxy demographics and morphological transformation at high redshift

Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.

Temporal Characterization of Ossification of the Crania in Australian Subadults: New standards for Age Estimation using Computed Tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of the ontogeny of cranial maturation, specifically: (1) the fusion timings of primary ossification centers in the basicranium; and (2) the temporal pattern of closure of the anterior fontanelle, to develop new population-specific age standards for medicolegal death investigation of Australian subadults. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating the potential of a contemporary forensic subadult Computed Tomography (CT) database of cranial scans and population data, to recalibrate existing standards for age estimation and quantify growth and development of Australian children. This research welcomes a study design applicable to all countries faced with paucity in skeletal repositories. Accurate assessment of age-at-death of skeletal remains represents a key element in forensic anthropology methodology. In Australian casework, age standards derived from American reference samples are applied in light of scarcity in documented Australian skeletal collections. Currently practitioners rely on antiquated standards, such as the Scheuer and Black1 compilation for age estimation, despite implications of secular trends and population variation. Skeletal maturation standards are population specific and should not be extrapolated from one population to another, while secular changes in skeletal dimensions and accelerated maturation underscore the importance of establishing modern standards to estimate age in modern subadults. Despite CT imaging becoming the gold standard for skeletal analysis in Australia, practitioners caution the application of forensic age standards derived from macroscopic inspection to a CT medium, suggesting a need for revised methodologies. Multi-slice CT scans of subadult crania and cervical vertebrae 1 and 2 were acquired from 350 Australian individuals (males: n=193, females: n=157) aged birth to 12 years. The CT database, projected at 920 individuals upon completion (January 2014), comprises thin-slice DICOM data (resolution: 0.5/0.3mm) of patients scanned since 2010 at major Brisbane Childrens Hospitals. DICOM datasets were subject to manual segmentation, followed by the construction of multi-planar and volume rendering cranial models, for subsequent scoring. The union of primary ossification centers of the occipital bone were scored as open, partially closed or completely closed; while the fontanelles, and vertebrae were scored in accordance with two stages. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate age at transition between union states for each center, and robust age parameters established using Bayesian statistics. In comparison to reported literature, closure of the fontanelles and contiguous sutures in Australian infants occur earlier than reported, with the anterior fontanelle transitioning from open to closed at 16.7±1.1 months. The metopic suture is closed prior to 10 weeks post-partum and completely obliterated by 6 months of age, independent of sex. Utilizing reverse engineering capabilities, an alternate method for infant age estimation based on quantification of fontanelle area and non-linear regression with variance component modeling will be presented. Closure models indicate that the greatest rate of change in anterior fontanelle area occurs prior to 5 months of age. This study complements the work of Scheuer and Black1, providing more specific age intervals for union and temporal maturity of each primary ossification center of the occipital bone. For example, dominant fusion of the sutura intra-occipitalis posterior occurs before 9 months of age, followed by persistence of a hyaline cartilage tongue posterior to the foramen magnum until 2.5 years; with obliteration at 2.9±0.1 years. Recalibrated age parameters for the atlas and axis are presented, with the anterior arch of the atlas appearing at 2.9 months in females and 6.3 months in males; while dentoneural, dentocentral and neurocentral junctions of the axis transitioned from non-union to union at 2.1±0.1 years in females and 3.7±0.1 years in males. These results are an exemplar of significant sexual dimorphism in maturation (p<0.05), with girls exhibiting union earlier than boys, justifying the need for segregated sex standards for age estimation. Studies such as this are imperative for providing updated standards for Australian forensic and pediatric practice and provide an insight into skeletal development of this population. During this presentation, the utility of novel regression models for age estimation of infants will be discussed, with emphasis on three-dimensional modeling capabilities of complex structures such as fontanelles, for the development of new age estimation methods.

Understanding declining science participation in Australia : a systemic perspective

In this chapter we describe the substantial declines in student participation in senior high school physics, chemistry and biology classes in Australia over the last two decades. We outline some of the explanations commonly offered to account for these declines, focusing on two contrasting positions: first, that they are due to today’s students holding less positive attitudes towards science classes and careers than their predecessors, and second, that the declines are related to policy and structural changes at the upper secondary and tertiary education levels which have affected the relative status of subjects and the dynamics of choice. We describe how the Choosing Science study investigated the extent to which the two hypotheses were supported by empirical evidence, and discuss our findings in the light of a third result from the study concerning the role of self-identity in subject choice. We conclude that the declines in high school science enrolments are most likely related to changes in school and university curriculum options and that within this expanded curriculum marketplace, identity becomes a very important reference point in students’ decisions about whether to take science in the final years of high school.

Tales of science and defiance : the case for co-learning and collaboration in bridging the science/emotion divide in water recycling debates

Although science is generally assumed to be well integrated into rational decision-making models, it can be used to destabilise consultative processes, particularly when emotions are involved. Water policies are often seen as debates over technical and engineering issues, but can be highly controversial. Recycled water proposals, in particular, can create highly emotive conflicts. Through a case study regarding the rejection of recycled water proposals in the south-east Queensland, Australia, we explore the influence of science and emotions in contemporary water planning. We highlight the dangers inherent in promoting technical water planning issues at the expense of appropriate consideration of citizen concerns. Combining the science–policy interface and stakeholder engagement literatures, we advocate for collaborative decision-making processes that accommodate emotions and value judgements. A more collaborative stakeholder engagement model, founded on the principles of co-learning, has the potential to broaden the decision-making base and to promote better and more inclusive decision-making.

Reply by authors to J.C. Wilcox

This is a reply to "Comment on 'Online Estimation of Allan Variance Parameters' " by James C.Wilcox published in JOURNAL OF GUIDANCE, CONTROL, AND DYNAMICS Vol. 24, No. 3, May–June 2001. OUR statement “Modern gyros provide angular rate measurements directly, and hence, angular quantization is meaningless” made in the original paper should first be read with the accompanying sentences in the paragraph. The meaning of the sentence would perhaps have been clearer if written". . .

Statutory occupational health and safety workplace arrangements for the modern labour market

Over the past 20 years there has been a significant refashioning of the labour market within Australia and other industrialised countries. This paper examines the implications of the growth of more flexible work arrangements for mechanisms designed to facilitate worker involvement in occupational health and safety at the workplace—a pivotal feature of post-Robens OHS legislation in Australia. It is argued that the growth of subcontracting, casual and home-based work has undermined both coverage and the effectiveness of these provisions, especially in a context where union membership and influence has also been declining. Looking at international experience, the paper examines a number of ways of remedying these deficiencies.

Corneal changes following short-term miniscleral contact lens wear

Purpose To examine the influence of short-term miniscleral contact lens wear on corneal shape, thickness and anterior surface aberrations. Methods Scheimpflug imaging was captured before, immediately following and 3 hours after a short period (3 hours) of miniscleral contact lens wear for 10 young (mean 27 ± 5 years), healthy participants. Natural diurnal variations were considered by measuring baseline diurnal changes obtained on a separate control day without contact lens wear. Results Small but significant anterior corneal flattening was observed immediately following lens removal (overall mean 0.02 ± 0.03 mm, p < 0.001) which returned to baseline levels three hours after lens removal. During the three hour recovery period significant corneal thinning (-13.4 ± 10.5 μm) and posterior surface flattening (0.03 ± 0.02 mm) were also observed (both p < 0.01). The magnitude of posterior corneal flattening during recovery correlated with the amount of corneal thinning (r = 0.69, p = 0.03). Central corneal clearance (maximum tear reservoir depth) was not associated with corneal swelling following lens removal (r = -0.24, p > 0.05). An increase in lower-order corneal astigmatism Z(2,2) was also observed following lens wear (mean -0.144 ± 0.075 μm, p = 0.02). Conclusions Flattening of the anterior corneal surface was observed immediately following lens wear, while ‘rebound’ thinning and flattening of the posterior surface was evident following the recovery period. Modern miniscleral contact lenses that vault the cornea may slightly influence corneal shape and power but do not induce clinically significant corneal oedema during short-term wear.

Foundations for the future : A long-term plan for Australian ecosystem science

Abstract: Australia’s ecosystems are the basis of our current and future prosperity, and our national well-being.A strong and sustainable Australian ecosystem science enterprise is vital for understanding and securing these ecosystems in the face of current and future challenges. This Plan defines the vision and key directions for a national ecosystem science capability that will enable Australia to understand and effectively manage its ecosystems for decades to come.The Plan’s underlying theme is that excellent science supports a range of activities, including public engagement, that enable us to understand and maintain healthy ecosystems.Those healthy ecosystems are the cornerstone of our social and economic well-being.The vision guiding the development of this Plan is that in 20 years’ time the status of Australian ecosystems and how they change will be widely reported and understood, and the prosperity and well-being they provide will be secure. To enable this, Australia’s national ecosystem science capability will be coordinated, collaborative and connected.The Plan is based on an extensive set of collaboratively generated proposals from national town hall meetings that also formthe basis for its implementation. Some directions within the Plan are for the Australian ecosystem science community itself to implement, others will involve the users of ecosystem science and the groups that fund ecosystem science.We identify six equal priority areas for action to achieve our vision: (i) delivering maximum impact for Australia: enhancing relationships between scientists and end-users; (ii) supporting long-termresearch; (iii) enabling ecosystem surveillance; (iv) making the most of data resources; (v) inspiring a generation: empowering the public with knowledge and opportunities; (vi) facilitating coordination, collaboration and leadership. This shared vision will enable us to consolidate our current successes, overcome remaining barriers and establish the foundations to ensure Australian ecosystem science delivers for the future needs of Australia..

Investigating the interplay between transport, land use and the environment : a review of the literature

Integration of land use and transport decisions to achieve sustainable travel behavior has been considered an integral element for sustainable urban development. However, before the popularity of urban sustainability concept, land use and transport interaction had been scrutinized as strictly separate entities in the urban planning and development domains. Fortunately today the concept of sustainability has been pushed to the forefront of policy-making and politics as the world wakes up to the impacts of climate change and the effects of the rapid urbanization and modern urban lifestyles. The paper therefore aims to highlight the importance of the interplay between transport, land use and the environment. This review paper provides evidence from the literature including the Transport, Land Use and the Environment Special Issue contributions and global best practice cases to showcase new empirical approaches and investigations from different parts of the world that contribute to the wealth of knowledge in exploring the interplay between transport, land use and the environment thoroughly.

Challenges facing the application of sustainability to housing in Saudi Arabia

Modern Saudi housing supply is neither sustainable nor efficient in meeting the conservative Islamic culture of the community and the local environmental conditions. This thesis develops a model for successful development of sustainable housing in Saudi Arabia by incorporating multi stakeholder inputs on key barriers, critical success factors and best practice case studies. The model will help create public awareness and education tools for both private and public sectors on sustainable housing. It provides a framework that includes cultural and environmental needs of the conservative Saudi neighbourhood. It may assist the Saudi government to regulate new building codes and regulations.

Advances in the science of objective physical activity monitoring : 3rd International Conference on Ambulatory Monitoring of Physical Activity and Movement

Editorial: This theme issue of BJSM presents key papers from the 3rd International Conference on Ambulatory Monitoring of Physical Activity and Movement (ICAMPAM). The July 2013 conference was hosted by the University of Massachusetts and was attended by researchers, clinicians, students and technology vendors for North America, Europe, Australasia and Asia...

The Artful Interpretation of Science through Picture Books

Science picture books offer pleasurable and educational reading experiences. These texts open up opportunities for cross-curriculum teaching and learning and a means for developing students’ visual literacy skills, aesthetic appreciation, and higher level thinking skills. Picture books demonstrate how one mode or semiotic system (visual and verbal) mediates the other, often complementing, extending, and filling-in the gaps between words and images. Students’ meaning making is further extended when they can understand the subtleties and effects (and affects) of the visual elements of art and design, and the different styles of writing and language use.

High efficiency quantum dot-sensitised solar cells by material science and device architecture

This thesis studied cadmium sulfide and cadmium selenide quantum dots and their performance as light absorbers in quantum dot-sensitised solar cells. This research has made contributions to the understanding of size dependent photodegradation, passivation and particle growth mechanism of cadmium sulfide quantum dots using SILAR method and the role of ZnSe shell coatings on solar cell performance improvement.

Development of realistic design fire time-temperature curves for the testing of cold-formed steel wall system

Fire resistance rating of light gauge steel frame (LSF) wall systems is obtained from fire tests based on the standard fire time-temperature curve. However, fire severity has increased in modern buildings due to higher fuel loads as a result of modern furniture and light weight constructions that make use of thermoplastics materials, synthetic foams and fabrics. Some of these materials are high in calorific values and increase both the spread of fire growth and heat release rate, thus increasing the fire severity beyond that of the standard fire curve. Further, the standard fire curve does not include a decay phase that is present in natural fires. Despite the increasing usage of LSF walls, their behaviour in real building fires is not fully understood. This paper presents the details of a research study aimed at developing realistic design fire curves for use in the fire tests of LSF walls. It includes a review of the characteristics of building fires, previously developed fire time-temperature curves, computer models and available parametric equations. The paper highlights that real building fire time-temperature curves depend on the fuel load representing the combustible building contents, ventilation openings and thermal properties of wall lining materials, and provides suitable values of many required parameters including fuel loads in residential buildings. Finally, realistic design fire time-temperature curves simulating the fire conditions in modern residential buildings are proposed for the testing of LSF walls.