Posterior Probability Modeling and Image Classification for Archaeological Site Prospection: Building a Survey Efficacy Model for Identifying Neolithic Felsite Workshops in the Shetland Islands

The application of custom classification techniques and posterior probability modeling (PPM) using Worldview-2 multispectral imagery to archaeological field survey is presented in this paper. Research is focused on the identification of Neolithic felsite stone tool workshops in the North Mavine region of the Shetland Islands in Northern Scotland. Sample data from known workshops surveyed using differential GPS are used alongside known non-sites to train a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifier based on a combination of datasets including Worldview-2 bands, band difference ratios (BDR) and topographical derivatives. Principal components analysis is further used to test and reduce dimensionality caused by redundant datasets. Probability models were generated by LDA using principal components and tested with sites identified through geological field survey. Testing shows the prospective ability of this technique and significance between 0.05 and 0.01, and gain statistics between 0.90 and 0.94, higher than those obtained using maximum likelihood and random forest classifiers. Results suggest that this approach is best suited to relatively homogenous site types, and performs better with correlated data sources. Finally, by combining posterior probability models and least-cost analysis, a survey least-cost efficacy model is generated showing the utility of such approaches to archaeological field survey.

Shame, Dissociation, and Complex PTSD Symptoms in Traumatized Psychiatric and Control Groups: Direct and Indirect Associations With Relationship Distress

Objectives: Elevated shame and dissociation are common in dissociative identity disorder (DID) and chronic posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and are part of the constellation of symptoms defined as complex PTSD. Previous work examined the relationship between shame, dissociation, and complex PTSD and whether they are associated with intimate relationship anxiety, relationship depression, and fear of relationships. This study investigated these variables in traumatized clinical samples and a nonclinical community group.

Method: Participants were drawn from the DID (n = 20), conflict-related chronic PTSD (n = 65), and nonclinical (n = 125) populations and completed questionnaires assessing the variables of interest. A model examining the direct impact of shame and dissociation on relationship functioning, and their indirect effect via complex PTSD symptoms, was tested through path analysis.

Results: The DID sample reported significantly higher dissociation, shame, complex PTSD symptom severity, relationship anxiety, relationship depression, and fear of relationships than the other two samples. Support was found for the proposed model, with shame directly affecting relationship anxiety and fear of relationships, and pathological dissociation directly affecting relationship anxiety and relationship depression. The indirect effect of shame and dissociation via complex PTSD symptom severity was evident on all relationship variables.

Conclusion: Shame and pathological dissociation are important for not only the effect they have on the development of other complex PTSD symptoms, but also their direct and indirect effects on distress associated with relationships.

Madeira wine vinification process: analysis and control

The present study was done in collaboration with J. Faria e Filhos company, a Madeira wine producer, and its main goal was to fully characterize three wines produced during 2014 harvest and identify possible improving points in the winemaking process. The winemaking process was followed during 4 weeks, being registered the amounts of grapes received, the fermentation temperatures, the time at which fermentation was stopped and evolution of must densities until the fortification time. The characterization of musts and wines was done in terms of density, total and volatile acidity, alcohol content, pH, total of polyphenol, organic acids composition, sugars concentration and the volatile profile. Also, it was developed and validated an analytical methodology to quantify the volatile fatty acids, namely using SPME-GC-MS. Briefly, the following key features were obtained for the latter methodology: linearity (R2=0.999) e high sensitivity (LOD =0.026-0.068 mg/L), suitable precision (repeatability and reproducibility lower than 8,5%) and good recoveries (103,11-119,46%). The results reveal that fermentation temperatures should be controlled in a more strictly manner, in order to ensure a better balance in proportion of some volatile compounds, namely the esters and higher alcohols and to minimize the concentration of some volatiles, namely hexanoic, octanoic and decanoic acids, that when above their odours threshold are not positive for the wine aroma. Also, regarding the moment to stop the fermentation, it was verified that it can be introduced changes which can also be benefit to guarantee the tipicity of Madeira wine bouquet.

Flexible modeling and estimation for high-dimensional graphs

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Probabilistic Graphical Modelling for Software Product Lines: A Frameweork for Modeling and Reasoning under Uncertainty

This work provides a holistic investigation into the realm of feature modeling within software product lines. The work presented identifies limitations and challenges within the current feature modeling approaches. Those limitations include, but not limited to, the dearth of satisfactory cognitive presentation, inconveniency in scalable systems, inflexibility in adapting changes, nonexistence of predictability of models behavior, as well as the lack of probabilistic quantification of model’s implications and decision support for reasoning under uncertainty. The work in this thesis addresses these challenges by proposing a series of solutions. The first solution is the construction of a Bayesian Belief Feature Model, which is a novel modeling approach capable of quantifying the uncertainty measures in model parameters by a means of incorporating probabilistic modeling with a conventional modeling approach. The Bayesian Belief feature model presents a new enhanced feature modeling approach in terms of truth quantification and visual expressiveness. The second solution takes into consideration the unclear support for the reasoning under the uncertainty process, and the challenging constraint satisfaction problem in software product lines. This has been done through the development of a mathematical reasoner, which was designed to satisfy the model constraints by considering probability weight for all involved parameters and quantify the actual implications of the problem constraints. The developed Uncertain Constraint Satisfaction Problem approach has been tested and validated through a set of designated experiments. Profoundly stating, the main contributions of this thesis include the following: • Develop a framework for probabilistic graphical modeling to build the purported Bayesian belief feature model. • Extend the model to enhance visual expressiveness throughout the integration of colour degree variation; in which the colour varies with respect to the predefined probabilistic weights. • Enhance the constraints satisfaction problem by the uncertainty measuring of the parameters truth assumption. • Validate the developed approach against different experimental settings to determine its functionality and performance.

Discrete-time positive periodic systems with state and control constraints

The aim of this paper is to provide an efficient control design technique for discrete-time positive periodic systems. In particular, stability, positivity and periodic invariance of such systems are studied. Moreover, the concept of periodic invariance with respect to a collection of boxes is introduced and investigated with connection to stability. It is shown how such concept can be used for deriving a stabilizing state-feedback control that maintains the positivity of the closed-loop system and respects states and control signals constraints. In addition, all the proposed results can be efficiently solved in terms of linear programming.

The pathology of command and control: a formal synthesis

One of the most important theories in the study of environmental governance and policy is the pathology of command and control, which describes the negative consequences of top-down, technocratic governance of social and ecological systems. However, to date, this theory has been expressed somewhat inconsistently and informally in the literature, even by the seminal works that have established its importance and popularized it. This presents a problem for the sustainability science community if it cannot be sure of the precise details of one of its most important theories. Without such precision, applications and tests of various elements of the theory cannot be conducted reliably to advance the knowledge of environmental governance. I address this problem by synthesizing several seminal works to formalize this theory. The formalization involves the identification of the individual elements of the theory and a diagrammatic description of their relationships with each other that unfold in a series of semi-independent causal paths. Ideally, with such a formalization, scholars can use this theory more reliably and more meaningfully in their future work. I conclude by discussing the implications this theory has for the governance of natural resources.

Exploring social representations of adapting to climate change using topic modeling and Bayesian networks

When something unfamiliar emerges or when something familiar does something unexpected people need to make sense of what is emerging or going on in order to act. Social representations theory suggests how individuals and society make sense of the unfamiliar and hence how the resultant social representations (SRs) cognitively, emotionally, and actively orient people and enable communication. SRs are social constructions that emerge through individual and collective engagement with media and with everyday conversations among people. Recent developments in text analysis techniques, and in particular topic modeling, provide a potentially powerful analytical method to examine the structure and content of SRs using large samples of narrative or text. In this paper I describe the methods and results of applying topic modeling to 660 micronarratives collected from Australian academics / researchers, government employees, and members of the public in 2010-2011. The narrative fragments focused on adaptation to climate change (CC) and hence provide an example of Australian society making sense of an emerging and conflict ridden phenomena. The results of the topic modeling reflect elements of SRs of adaptation to CC that are consistent with findings in the literature as well as being reasonably robust predictors of classes of action in response to CC. Bayesian Network (BN) modeling was used to identify relationships among the topics (SR elements) and in particular to identify relationships among topics, sentiment, and action. Finally the resulting model and topic modeling results are used to highlight differences in the salience of SR elements among social groups. The approach of linking topic modeling and BN modeling offers a new and encouraging approach to analysis for ongoing research on SRs.

Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Volatility and Correlations from High-Frequency Data

This dissertation contains four essays that all share a common purpose: developing new methodologies to exploit the potential of high-frequency data for the measurement, modeling and forecasting of financial assets volatility and correlations. The first two chapters provide useful tools for univariate applications while the last two chapters develop multivariate methodologies. In chapter 1, we introduce a new class of univariate volatility models named FloGARCH models. FloGARCH models provide a parsimonious joint model for low frequency returns and realized measures, and are sufficiently flexible to capture long memory as well as asymmetries related to leverage effects. We analyze the performances of the models in a realistic numerical study and on the basis of a data set composed of 65 equities. Using more than 10 years of high-frequency transactions, we document significant statistical gains related to the FloGARCH models in terms of in-sample fit, out-of-sample fit and forecasting accuracy compared to classical and Realized GARCH models. In chapter 2, using 12 years of high-frequency transactions for 55 U.S. stocks, we argue that combining low-frequency exogenous economic indicators with high-frequency financial data improves the ability of conditionally heteroskedastic models to forecast the volatility of returns, their full multi-step ahead conditional distribution and the multi-period Value-at-Risk. Using a refined version of the Realized LGARCH model allowing for time-varying intercept and implemented with realized kernels, we document that nominal corporate profits and term spreads have strong long-run predictive ability and generate accurate risk measures forecasts over long-horizon. The results are based on several loss functions and tests, including the Model Confidence Set. Chapter 3 is a joint work with David Veredas. We study the class of disentangled realized estimators for the integrated covariance matrix of Brownian semimartingales with finite activity jumps. These estimators separate correlations and volatilities. We analyze different combinations of quantile- and median-based realized volatilities, and four estimators of realized correlations with three synchronization schemes. Their finite sample properties are studied under four data generating processes, in presence, or not, of microstructure noise, and under synchronous and asynchronous trading. The main finding is that the pre-averaged version of disentangled estimators based on Gaussian ranks (for the correlations) and median deviations (for the volatilities) provide a precise, computationally efficient, and easy alternative to measure integrated covariances on the basis of noisy and asynchronous prices. Along these lines, a minimum variance portfolio application shows the superiority of this disentangled realized estimator in terms of numerous performance metrics. Chapter 4 is co-authored with Niels S. Hansen, Asger Lunde and Kasper V. Olesen, all affiliated with CREATES at Aarhus University. We propose to use the Realized Beta GARCH model to exploit the potential of high-frequency data in commodity markets. The model produces high quality forecasts of pairwise correlations between commodities which can be used to construct a composite covariance matrix. We evaluate the quality of this matrix in a portfolio context and compare it to models used in the industry. We demonstrate significant economic gains in a realistic setting including short selling constraints and transaction costs.

Multirobot Tethering for Localization and Control

Particle filtering has proven to be an effective localization method for wheeled autonomous vehicles. For a given map, a sensor model, and observations, occasions arise where the vehicle could equally likely be in many locations of the map. Because particle filtering algorithms may generate low confidence pose estimates under these conditions, more robust localization strategies are required to produce reliable pose estimates. This becomes more critical if the state estimate is an integral part of system control. We investigate the use of particle filter estimation techniques on a hovercraft vehicle. The marginally stable dynamics of a hovercraft require reliable state estimates for proper stability and control. We use the Monte Carlo localization method, which implements a particle filter in a recursive state estimate algorithm. An H-infinity controller, designed to accommodate the latency inherent in our state estimation, provides stability and controllability to the hovercraft. In order to eliminate the low confidence estimates produced in certain environments, a multirobot system is designed to introduce mobile environment features. By tracking and controlling the secondary robot, we can position the mobile feature throughout the environment to ensure a high confidence estimate, thus maintaining stability in the system. A laser rangefinder is the sensor the hovercraft uses to track the secondary robot, observe the environment, and facilitate successful localization and stability in motion.

Thermodynamic modeling and microcalorimetry of nanostructured materials for capacitive thermal management of electronics

Transient power dissipation profiles in handheld electronic devices alternate between high and low power states depending on usage. Capacitive thermal management based on phase change materials potentially offers a fan-less thermal management for such transient profiles. However, such capacitive management becomes feasible only if there is a significant enhancement in the enthalpy change per unit volume of the phase change material since existing bulk materials such as paraffin fall short of requirements. In this thesis I propose novel nanostructured thin-film materials that can potentially exhibit significantly enhanced volumetric enthalpy change. Using fundamental thermodynamics of phase transition, calculations regarding the enhancement resulting from superheating in such thin film systems is conducted. Furthermore design of a microfabricated calorimeter to measure such enhancements is explained in detail. This work advances the state-of-art of phase change materials for capacitive cooling of handheld devices.

DESIGN, MODELING, AND FABRICATION OF MICROROBOT LEGS

This dissertation presents work done in the design, modeling, and fabrication of magnetically actuated microrobot legs. Novel fabrication processes for manufacturing multi-material compliant mechanisms have been used to fabricate effective legged robots at both the meso and micro scales, where the meso scale refers to the transition between macro and micro scales. This work discusses the development of a novel mesoscale manufacturing process, Laser Cut Elastomer Refill (LaCER), for prototyping millimeter-scale multi-material compliant mechanisms with elastomer hinges. Additionally discussed is an extension of previous work on the development of a microscale manufacturing process for fabricating micrometer-sale multi-material compliant mechanisms with elastomer hinges, with the added contribution of a method for incorporating magnetic materials for mechanism actuation using externally applied fields. As both of the fabrication processes outlined make significant use of highly compliant elastomer hinges, a fast, accurate modeling method for these hinges was desired for mechanism characterization and design. An analytical model was developed for this purpose, making use of the pseudo rigid-body (PRB) model and extending its utility to hinges with significant stretch component, such as those fabricated from elastomer materials. This model includes 3 springs with stiffnesses relating to material stiffness and hinge geometry, with additional correction factors for aspects particular to common multi-material hinge geometry. This model has been verified against a finite element analysis model (FEA), which in turn was matched to experimental data on mesoscale hinges manufactured using LaCER. These modeling methods have additionally been verified against experimental data from microscale hinges manufactured using the Si/elastomer/magnetics MEMS process. The development of several mechanisms is also discussed: including a mesoscale LaCER-fabricated hexapedal millirobot capable of walking at 2.4 body lengths per second; prototyped mesoscale LaCER-fabricated underactuated legs with asymmetrical features for improved performance; 1 centimeter cubed LaCER-fabricated magnetically-actuated hexapods which use the best-performing underactuated leg design to locomote at up to 10.6 body lengths per second; five microfabricated magnetically actuated single-hinge mechanisms; a 14-hinge, 11-link microfabricated gripper mechanism; a microfabricated robot leg mechansim demonstrated clearing a step height of 100 micrometers; and a 4 mm x 4 mm x 5 mm, 25 mg microfabricated magnetically-actuated hexapod, demonstrated walking at up to 2.25 body lengths per second.

Status of kariba weed (Salvinia molesta) infestation, its impacts and control options on Uganda’s water systems

Kariba weed (Salvinia molesta) is an invasive alien waterweed that was first recorded in Uganda in sheltered bays of Lake Kyoga in June 2013. This waterweed has become a common feature on Lake Kyoga and its associated rivers, streams and swamps, and has spread to other lakes notably Kwania and Albert in addition to Lake Kimira in Bugiri district.

Madeira wine vinification process: analysis and control

The present study was done in collaboration with J. Faria e Filhos company, a Madeira wine producer, and its main goal was to fully characterize three wines produced during 2014 harvest and identify possible improving points in the winemaking process. The winemaking process was followed during 4 weeks, being registered the amounts of grapes received, the fermentation temperatures, the time at which fermentation was stopped and evolution of must densities until the fortification time. The characterization of musts and wines was done in terms of density, total and volatile acidity, alcohol content, pH, total of polyphenol, organic acids composition, sugars concentration and the volatile profile. Also, it was developed and validated an analytical methodology to quantify the volatile fatty acids, namely using SPME-GC-MS. Briefly, the following key features were obtained for the latter methodology: linearity (R2=0.999) e high sensitivity (LOD =0.026-0.068 mg/L), suitable precision (repeatability and reproducibility lower than 8,5%) and good recoveries (103,11-119,46%). The results reveal that fermentation temperatures should be controlled in a more strictly manner, in order to ensure a better balance in proportion of some volatile compounds, namely the esters and higher alcohols and to minimize the concentration of some volatiles, namely hexanoic, octanoic and decanoic acids, that when above their odours threshold are not positive for the wine aroma. Also, regarding the moment to stop the fermentation, it was verified that it can be introduced changes which can also be benefit to guarantee the tipicity of Madeira wine bouquet.