Selection bias and unobservable heterogeneity applied at the wage equation of European married women

This paper utilizes a panel data sample selection model to correct the selection in the analysis of longitudinal labor market data for married women in European countries. We estimate the female wage equation in a framework of unbalanced panel data models with sample selection. The wage equations of females have several potential sources of.

Is the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy improved by the use of explicit panel-based appropriateness criteria?

BACKGROUND: Increasing the appropriateness of use of upper gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy is important to improve quality of care while at the same time containing costs. This study explored whether detailed explicit appropriateness criteria significantly improve the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy. METHODS: Consecutive patients referred for upper GI endoscopy at 6 centers (1 university hospital, 2 district hospitals, 3 gastroenterology practices) were prospectively included over a 6-month period. After controlling for disease presentation and patient characteristics, the relationship between the appropriateness of upper GI endoscopy, as assessed by explicit Swiss criteria developed by the RAND/UCLA panel method, and the presence of relevant endoscopic lesions was analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 2088 patients (60% outpatients, 57% men) were included. Analysis was restricted to the 1681 patients referred for diagnostic upper GI endoscopy. Forty-six percent of upper GI endoscopies were judged to be appropriate, 15% uncertain, and 39% inappropriate by the explicit criteria. No cancer was found in upper GI endoscopies judged to be inappropriate. Upper GI endoscopies judged appropriate or uncertain yielded significantly more relevant lesions (60%) than did those judged to be inappropriate (37%; odds ratio 2.6: 95% CI [2.2, 3.2]). In multivariate analyses, the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy was significantly influenced by appropriateness, patient gender and age, treatment setting, and symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Upper GI endoscopies performed for appropriate indications resulted in detecting significantly more clinically relevant lesions than did those performed for inappropriate indications. In addition, no upper GI endoscopy that resulted in a diagnosis of cancer was judged to be inappropriate. The use of such criteria improves patient selection for upper GI endoscopy and can thus contribute to efforts aimed at enhancing the quality and efficiency of care. (Gastrointest Endosc 2000;52:333-41).

The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Trade, firm selection, and innovation: the competition channel

The availability of rich firm-level data sets has recently led researchers to uncover new evidence on the effects of trade liberalization. First, trade openness forces the least productive firms to exit the market. Secondly, it induces surviving firms to increase their innovation efforts and thirdly, it increases the degree of product market competition. In this paper we propose a model aimed at providing a coherent interpretation of these findings. We introducing firm heterogeneity into an innovation-driven growth model, where incumbent firms operating in oligopolistic industries perform cost-reducing innovations. In this framework, trade liberalization leads to higher product market competition, lower markups and higher quantity produced. These changes in markups and quantities, in turn, promote innovation and productivity growth through a direct competition effect, based on the increase in the size of the market, and a selection effect, produced by the reallocation of resources towards more productive firms. Calibrated to match US aggregate and firm-level statistics, the model predicts that a 10 percent reduction in variable trade costs reduces markups by 1:15 percent, firm surviving probabilities by 1 percent, and induces an increase in productivity growth of about 13 percent. More than 90 percent of the trade-induced growth increase can be attributed to the selection effect.

Growth, selection and appropriate contracts

We study a dynamic model where growth requires both long-term investment and the selection of talented managers. When ability is not ex-ante observable and contracts are incomplete, managerial selection imposes a cost, as managers facing the risk of being replaced tend to choose a sub-optimally low level of long-term investment. This generates a trade-off between selection and investment that has implications for the choice of contractual relationships. Our analysis shows that rigid long-term contracts sacrificing managerial selection may be optimal at early stages of economic development and when access to information is limited. As the economy grows, however, knowledge accumulation increases the return to talent and makes it optimal to adopt flexible contractual relationships, where managerial selection is implemented even at the cost of lower investment. Better institutions, in the form of a richer contracting environment and less severe informational frictions, speed up the transition to short-term relationships.

IEF pattern classification-derived criteria for the identification of epoetin-delta in urine.

Epoetin-delta (Dynepo Shire Pharmaceuticals, Basing stoke, UK) is a synthetic form of erythropoietin (EPO) whose resemblance with endogenous EPO makes it hard to identify using the classical identification criteria. Urine samples collected from six healthy volunteers treated with epoetin-delta injections and from a control population were immuno-purified and analyzed with the usual IEF method. On the basis of the EPO profiles integration, a linear multivariate model was computed for discriminant analysis. For each sample, a pattern classification algorithm returned a bands distribution and intensity score (bands intensity score) saying how representative this sample is of one of the two classes, positive or negative. Effort profiles were also integrated in the model. The method yielded a good sensitivity versus specificity relation and was used to determine the detection window of the molecule following multiple injections. The bands intensity score, which can be generalized to epoetin-alpha and epoetin-beta, is proposed as an alternative criterion and a supplementary evidence for the identification of EPO abuse.

Inducible gene expression in fetal thymic epithelium: A new BAC transgenic model.

The thymus is the site of T cell development. Several stromal and hematopoietic cell types are necessary for the proper function of thymic selection and eventually peripheral immunity. Thymic epithelial cells (TECs) are essential for T cell lineage commitment, expansion, and maturation in the thymus. We were interested in developing an in vivo model in which exogenous gene expression could be transiently induced in embryonic TEC (Tet-On system). To this end, we have generated a bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) transgenic mouse line in which the reverse tetracycline-dependent transactivator (rtTA) is expressed under the control of the Foxn1 promoter, a transcriptional factor indispensable for TEC development. To analyze the expression pattern and efficiency of this novel mouse model, we crossed the Foxn1-rtTA founder with a Tet-Responsive Element (TRE)-LacZ GFP mouse reporter to obtain a double transgenic mouse. In the presence of doxycycline, rtTA can interact with TRE and induce the expression of GFP and LacZ. In this double transgenic mouse, we observed that GFP expression was high, inducible and limited to TEC in fetal thymus. In contrast, in adult thymus, when TEC development and maturation is completed, GFP was barely detectable. Therefore, Foxn1-rtTA represents a new and efficient transgenic mouse model to induce genes of interest specifically in fetal thymic epithelium. genesis 51:717-724. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Revised Criteria and Procedures for the Establishment of New Primary Schools - Report of the Commission on School Accommodation

Part One explores the background factors relating to new school establishment, outlines the views received as a result of consultation with the public and the New Schools Advisory Committee (NSAC) and reviews international practice in relation to establishment of new schools. The population of the country experienced an unprecedented increase in the past ten years. Despite the current economic downturn, the effect of this recent population increase is that growth in demand for school places is set to increase over the short to medium term. The overriding objective is to ensure that a school place is available to every child. Part Two explores issues around planning for new schools in the future. It discusses patron selection, the mechanism for identifying the need for a new school and proposals for cost effectiveness, including campus arrangements. A school is of central importance to a local community and therefore the establishment of a new school must be carried out with reference to the overall plan of the local authority for any given area. Guidelines published under Section 28 of the Planning Act entitled “The Provision of Schools and the Planning System” (July 2008) establish a 7 framework for co-operation between the Department and planning authorities to ensure the timely and cost-effective provision of school facilities.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.

The robustness of the weak selection approximation for the evolution of altruism against strong selection.

The weak selection approximation of population genetics has made possible the analysis of social evolution under a considerable variety of biological scenarios. Despite its extensive usage, the accuracy of weak selection in predicting the emergence of altruism under limited dispersal when selection intensity increases remains unclear. Here, we derive the condition for the spread of an altruistic mutant in the infinite island model of dispersal under a Moran reproductive process and arbitrary strength of selection. The simplicity of the model allows us to compare weak and strong selection regimes analytically. Our results demonstrate that the weak selection approximation is robust to moderate increases in selection intensity and therefore provides a good approximation to understand the invasion of altruism in spatially structured population. In particular, we find that the weak selection approximation is excellent even if selection is very strong, when either migration is much stronger than selection or when patches are large. Importantly, we emphasize that the weak selection approximation provides the ideal condition for the invasion of altruism, and increasing selection intensity will impede the emergence of altruism. We discuss that this should also hold for more complicated life cycles and for culturally transmitted altruism. Using the weak selection approximation is therefore unlikely to miss out on any demographic scenario that lead to the evolution of altruism under limited dispersal.

Evidence for an episodic model of protein sequence evolution.

The evolution of protein function appears to involve alternating periods of conservative evolution and of relatively rapid change. Evidence for such episodic evolution, consistent with some theoretical expectations, comes from the application of increasingly sophisticated models of evolution to large sequence datasets. We present here some of the recent methods to detect functional shifts, using amino acid or codon models. Both provide evidence for punctual shifts in patterns of amino acid conservation, including the fixation of key changes by positive selection. Although a link to gene duplication, a presumed source of functional changes, has been difficult to establish, this episodic model appears to apply to a wide variety of proteins and organisms.

New delay-dependent stability criteria for uncertain neutral systems with mixed time-varying delays and nonlinear perturbations

The problem of stability analysis for a class of neutral systems with mixed time-varying neutral, discrete and distributed delays and nonlinear parameter perturbations is addressed. By introducing a novel Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and combining the descriptor model transformation, the Leibniz-Newton formula, some free-weighting matrices, and a suitable change of variables, new sufficient conditions are established for the stability of the considered system, which are neutral-delay-dependent, discrete-delay-range dependent, and distributeddelay-dependent. The conditions are presented in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) and can be efficiently solved using convex programming techniques. Two numerical examples are given to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method

Electoral competition through issue selection

Politics must tackle multiple issues at once. In a first-best world, political competition constrains parties to prioritize issues according to the voters' true concerns. In the real world, the opposite also happens: parties manipulate voter priorities by emphasizing issues selectively during the political campaign. This phenomenon, known as priming, should allow parties to pay less attention to the issues that they intend to mute. We develop a model of endogenous issue ownership in which two vote-seeking parties (i) invest to attract voters with "better" policy proposals and (ii) choose a communication campaign to focus voter attention on specific issues. We identify novel feedbacks between communication and investment. In particular, we find that stronger priming effects can backfire by constraining parties to invest more resources in all issues, including the ones they would otherwise intend to mute. We also identify under which conditions parties prefer to focus on their "historical issues" or to engage in issue stealing. Typically, the latter happens when priming effects are strong, and historical reputations differentiates parties less.

Power and selection of contract terms: The case from the Brazilian orange juice sector

ABSTRACT We propose a model to explain how contract terms are selected in the presence of a form of economic power: contract power. The orange juice sector is used to illustrate an analysis that demonstrates the effects of contract power on the economic organization of the sector. We define contract power as the ability to exploit contractual gaps or failures of contractual provisions, which are strategically left incomplete. Empirical evidence from content analysis of antitrust documents supports the logic of contract power in the orange juice sector in three forms: avoiding changes to payment methods from weight to solid contents (quality); using information asymmetries to manipulate indexes that calculate the formula of orange prices; and deliberately harvesting oranges late in order to dehydrate the fruit, which consequently reduces weight and price. The paper contributes to understanding the selection of contract terms and the debate about how antitrust offices can deal with this issue.

A metapopulation model for the introgression from genetically modified plants into their wild relatives

Most models on introgression from genetically modified (GM) plants have focused on small spatial scales, modelling gene flow from a field containing GM plants into a single adjacent population of a wild relative. Here, we present a model to study the effect of introgression from multiple plantations into the whole metapopulation of the wild relative. The most important result of the model is that even very low levels of introgression and selection can lead to a high probability that the transgene goes to fixation in the metapopulation. Furthermore, the overall frequency of the transgene in the metapopulation, after a certain number of generations of introgression, depends on the population dynamics. If there is a high rate of migration or a high rate of population turnover, the overall transgene frequency is much higher than with lower rates. However, under an island model of population structure, this increased frequency has only a very small effect on the probability of fixation of the transgene. Considering these results, studies on the potential ecological risks of introgression from GM plants should look not only at the rate of introgression and selection acting on the transgene, but also at the metapopulation dynamics of the wild relative.