Is demography destiny? Application of machine learning techniques to accurately predict population health outcomes from a minimal demographic dataset

For years, we have relied on population surveys to keep track of regional public health statistics, including the prevalence of non-communicable diseases. Because of the cost and limitations of such surveys, we often do not have the up-to-date data on health outcomes of a region. In this paper, we examined the feasibility of inferring regional health outcomes from socio-demographic data that are widely available and timely updated through national censuses and community surveys. Using data for 50 American states (excluding Washington DC) from 2007 to 2012, we constructed a machine-learning model to predict the prevalence of six non-communicable disease (NCD) outcomes (four NCDs and two major clinical risk factors), based on population socio-demographic characteristics from the American Community Survey. We found that regional prevalence estimates for non-communicable diseases can be reasonably predicted. The predictions were highly correlated with the observed data, in both the states included in the derivation model (median correlation 0.88) and those excluded from the development for use as a completely separated validation sample (median correlation 0.85), demonstrating that the model had sufficient external validity to make good predictions, based on demographics alone, for areas not included in the model development. This highlights both the utility of this sophisticated approach to model development, and the vital importance of simple socio-demographic characteristics as both indicators and determinants of chronic disease.

A new algorithm to design minimal multi-functional observers for linear systems

Designing minimum possible order (minimal) observers for Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) linear systems have always been an interesting subject. In this paper, a new methodology to design minimal multi-functional observers for Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) systems is proposed. The approach is applicable, and it also helps in regulating the convergence rate of the observed functions. It is assumed that the system is functional observable or functional detectable, which is less conservative than assuming the observability or detectability of the system. To satisfy the minimality of the observer, a recursive algorithm is provided that increases the order of the observer by appending the minimum required auxiliary functions to the desired functions that are going to be estimated. The algorithm increases the number of functions such that the necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a functional observer are satisfied. Moreover, a new methodology to solve the observer design interconnected equations is elaborated. Our new algorithm has advantages with regard to the other available methods in designing minimal order functional observers. Specifically, it is compared with the most common schemes, which are transformation based. Using numerical examples it is shown that under special circumstances, the conventional methods have some drawbacks. The problem partly lies in the lack of sufficient numerical degrees of freedom proposed by the conventional methods. It is shown that our proposed algorithm can resolve this issue. A recursive algorithm is also proposed to summarize the observer design procedure. Several numerical examples and simulation results illustrate the efficacy, superiority and different aspects of the theoretical findings.

Efficient and accurate set-based registration of time-separated aerial images

This paper addresses the task of time-separated aerial image registration. The ability to solve this problem accurately and reliably is important for a variety of subsequent image understanding applications. The principal challenge lies in the extent and nature of transient appearance variation that a land area can undergo, such as that caused by the change under illumination conditions, seasonal variations, or the occlusion by non-persistent objects (people, cars). Our work introduces several major novelties (i) unlike previous work on aerial image registration, we approach the problem using a set-based paradigm; (ii) we show how image space local, pair-wise constraints can be used to enforce a globally good registration using a constraints graph structure; (iii) we show how a simple holistic representation derived from raw aerial images can be used as a basic building block of the constraints graph in a manner which achieves both high registration accuracy and speed; (iv) lastly, we introduce a new and, to the best of our knowledge, the only data corpus suitable for the evaluation of set-based aerial image registration algorithms. Using this data set, we demonstrate (i) that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art for pair-wise registration already, achieving greater accuracy and reliability, while at the same time reducing the computational cost of the task and (ii) that the increase in the number of available images in a set consistently reduces the average registration error, with a major difference already for a single additional image.

Rebound or resignation: developing a predictive model of return to subjective wellbeing set-point

Though subjective wellbeing (SWB) is generally stable and consistent over time, it can fall below its set-point in response to adverse life events. However, deviations from set-point levels are usually only temporary, as homeostatic processes operate to return SWB to its normal state. Given that income and close interpersonal relationships have been proposed as powerful external resources that are coincident with higher SWB, access to these resources may be an important predictor of whether or not a person is likely to recover their SWB following a departure from their set-point. Under the guiding framework of SWB Homeostasis Theory, this study considers whether access to a higher income and a committed partner can predict whether people who score lower than normal for SWB at baseline will return to normal set-point levels of SWB (rebound) or remain below the normal range (resigned) at follow-up. Participants were 733 people (53.3 % female) from the Australian Unity Longitudinal Wellbeing Study who ranged in age from 20 to 92 years (M = 59.65 years; SD = 13.15). Logistic regression analyses revealed that participants’ demographic characteristics were poor predictors of whether they rebounded or resigned. Consistent with homeostasis theory, the extent of departure from the proposed normal SWB set-point at baseline was significantly associated with rebound or resignation at time 2. These findings have implications for the way that SWB measures can be used in professional practice to identify people who are particularly vulnerable to depression and to guide the provision of appropriate and effective therapeutic interventions.

A systematic evaluation of field-based screening methods for the assessment of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury risk

BACKGROUND: Laboratory-based measures provide an accurate method to identify risk factors for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury; however, these methods are generally prohibitive to the wider community. Screening methods that can be completed in a field or clinical setting may be more applicable for wider community use. Examination of field-based screening methods for ACL injury risk can aid in identifying the most applicable method(s) for use in these settings. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate and compare field-based screening methods for ACL injury risk to determine their efficacy of use in wider community settings. DATA SOURCES: An electronic database search was conducted on the SPORTDiscus™, MEDLINE, AMED and CINAHL databases (January 1990-July 2015) using a combination of relevant keywords. A secondary search of the same databases, using relevant keywords from identified screening methods, was also undertaken. STUDY SELECTION: Studies identified as potentially relevant were independently examined by two reviewers for inclusion. Where consensus could not be reached, a third reviewer was consulted. Original research articles that examined screening methods for ACL injury risk that could be undertaken outside of a laboratory setting were included for review. STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: Two reviewers independently assessed the quality of included studies. Included studies were categorized according to the screening method they examined. A description of each screening method, and data pertaining to the ability to prospectively identify ACL injuries, validity and reliability, recommendations for identifying 'at-risk' athletes, equipment and training required to complete screening, time taken to screen athletes, and applicability of the screening method across sports and athletes were extracted from relevant studies. RESULTS: Of 1077 citations from the initial search, a total of 25 articles were identified as potentially relevant, with 12 meeting all inclusion/exclusion criteria. From the secondary search, eight further studies met all criteria, resulting in 20 studies being included for review. Five ACL-screening methods-the Landing Error Scoring System (LESS), Clinic-Based Algorithm, Observational Screening of Dynamic Knee Valgus (OSDKV), 2D-Cam Method, and Tuck Jump Assessment-were identified. There was limited evidence supporting the use of field-based screening methods in predicting ACL injuries across a range of populations. Differences relating to the equipment and time required to complete screening methods were identified. LIMITATIONS: Only screening methods for ACL injury risk were included for review. Field-based screening methods developed for lower-limb injury risk in general may also incorporate, and be useful in, screening for ACL injury risk. CONCLUSIONS: Limited studies were available relating to the OSDKV and 2D-Cam Method. The LESS showed predictive validity in identifying ACL injuries, however only in a youth athlete population. The LESS also appears practical for community-wide use due to the minimal equipment and set-up/analysis time required. The Clinic-Based Algorithm may have predictive value for ACL injury risk as it identifies athletes who exhibit high frontal plane knee loads during a landing task, but requires extensive additional equipment and time, which may limit its application to wider community settings.

Connected P-percent coverage in wireless sensor networks based on degree constraint dominating set approach

In this paper, we propose an algorihm for conneced p-percent coverage probem in Wireless Sensor Networks(WSNs) to improve the over netork life time. In this work, we invstigae the p-pernt coverage problem(PCP) in WSNs which require % of n area should be monitored correctl and to find ou ny additional requirements of the connec p-percent coverge prom. We prose pDCDS algorith which is a learnin autmaton basd algorithm fr PCP pDCDS is a Degreconsained Connected Domining Se based algoithm whch detect the minimum numbe of des to monitor an area. The simulation results demonstrate hat pDCDS can remarkably improve the network lifetime.

Correlated differential privacy: hiding information in non-IID data set

Privacy preserving on data mining and data release has attracted an increasing research interest over a number of decades. Differential privacy is one influential privacy notion that offers a rigorous and provable privacy guarantee for data mining and data release. Existing studies on differential privacy assume that in a data set, records are sampled independently. However, in real-world applications, records in a data set are rarely independent. The relationships among records are referred to as correlated information and the data set is defined as correlated data set. A differential privacy technique performed on a correlated data set will disclose more information than expected, and this is a serious privacy violation. Although recent research was concerned with this new privacy violation, it still calls for a solid solution for the correlated data set. Moreover, how to decrease the large amount of noise incurred via differential privacy in correlated data set is yet to be explored. To fill the gap, this paper proposes an effective correlated differential privacy solution by defining the correlated sensitivity and designing a correlated data releasing mechanism. With consideration of the correlated levels between records, the proposed correlated sensitivity can significantly decrease the noise compared with traditional global sensitivity. The correlated data releasing mechanism correlated iteration mechanism is designed based on an iterative method to answer a large number of queries. Compared with the traditional method, the proposed correlated differential privacy solution enhances the privacy guarantee for a correlated data set with less accuracy cost. Experimental results show that the proposed solution outperforms traditional differential privacy in terms of mean square error on large group of queries. This also suggests the correlated differential privacy can successfully retain the utility while preserving the privacy.

Dominating set and network coding-based routing in wireless mesh networks

Wireless mesh networks are widely applied in many fields such as industrial controlling, environmental monitoring, and military operations. Network coding is promising technology that can improve the performance of wireless mesh networks. In particular, network coding is suitable for wireless mesh networks as the fixed backbone of wireless mesh is usually unlimited energy. However, coding collision is a severe problem affecting network performance. To avoid this, routing should be effectively designed with an optimum combination of coding opportunity and coding validity. In this paper, we propose a Connected Dominating Set (CDS)-based and Flow-oriented Coding-aware Routing (CFCR) mechanism to actively increase potential coding opportunities. Our work provides two major contributions. First, it effectively deals with the coding collision problem of flows by introducing the information conformation process, which effectively decreases the failure rate of decoding. Secondly, our routing process considers the benefit of CDS and flow coding simultaneously. Through formalized analysis of the routing parameters, CFCR can choose optimized routing with reliable transmission and small cost. Our evaluation shows CFCR has a lower packet loss ratio and higher throughput than existing methods, such as Adaptive Control of Packet Overhead in XOR Network Coding (ACPO), or Distributed Coding-Aware Routing (DCAR).

Minimal unknown-input functional observers for multi-input multi-output LTI systems

Designing minimum possible order (minimal) disturbance-decoupled proper functional observers for multi-input multi-output (MIMO) linear time-invariant (LTI) systems is studied. It is not necessary that a minimum-order unknown-input functional observer (UIFO) exists in our proposed design procedure. If the minimum-order observer cannot be attained, the observer's order is increased sequentially through a recursive algorithm, so that the minimal order UIFO can be obtained. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that this specific problem is addressed. It is assumed that the system is unknown-input functional detectable, which is the least requirement for the existence of a stable UIFO. This condition also is a certificate for the convergence of our observer's order-increase algorithm. Two methodologies are demonstrated to solve the observer design equations. The second presented scheme, is a new design method that based on our observations has a better numerical performance than the first conventional one. Numerical examples and simulation results in the MATLAB/Simulink environment describe the overall observer design procedure, and highlight the efficacy of our new methodology to solve the observer equations in comparison to the conventional one.

Minimal multi-functional observers for linear systems using a direct approach

The direct approach in designing functional observers was first presented in [1] for estimating a single function of the states of a Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) system. One of the benefits of the direct scheme is that it does not require solving the interconnected Sylvester equations that appear in the other observer design approaches. In the present paper, the direct approach is extended to reconstruct multiple functions of the states in such a way that the minimum possible order of the observer is achieved. The observer is designed so that an asymptotic functional observer can be obtained with arbitrary convergence rate. In the proposed methodology, it is not necessary that a reduced order observer exists for the desired functions to be estimated. To release this limitation, an algorithm is employed to find some auxiliary functions in the minimum required number to be appended to the desired functions. This method assumes that the system is functional observable. This assumption however is less restrictive than the observability and detectability conditions of the system. A numerical example and simulation results explain the efficacy and the benefits of the proposed algorithm.

As mudanças na organização da produção na indústria gáfica do Grande ABC: um estudo sobre o segmento off set

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo caracterizar a indústria gráfica do ponto de vista da gestão, tecnologia, inovação e competição. A economia ao longo de sua história foi marcante por alguma situação peculiar que a caracterizasse. Em particular a partir da década de 1960 acompanhamos o crescimento em larga escala na região do Grande ABC onde, a indústria automobilística e seus fornecedores necessitaram de maior estrutura e apoio para as suas operações, provocando alterações nos modos de atuação das empresas industriais no país. Nessa mesma direção pelas necessidades criadas à época, a indústria gráfica na região do ABC também teve seu crescimento para atender a demanda e, criando o caráter da regionalidade e se fortalecendo economicamente. Entretanto a partir da década de 1980 com as crises econômicas e a abertura de mercado, houve uma redução nos postos de trabalho, mas as empresas também alteraram as formas de produzir. O trabalho de campo foi apoiado num referencial teórico baseado na revisão bibliográfica e um roteiro de entrevistas que orientou a coleta de dados. Na presente pesquisa foram realizadas entrevistas com os sujeitos relacionados e verificação de documentos. A análise realizada buscou confrontar os dados coletados e sistematizados com o quadro conceitual utilizado para a elaboração da pesquisa, possibilitando apurar as principais transformações verificadas no segmento estudado, bem como oferecendo embasamento para a tomada de decisão dos atores econômicos envolvidos com o desenvolvimento da indústria gráfica no Grande ABC.

Graphical models and point set matching

Point pattern matching in Euclidean Spaces is one of the fundamental problems in Pattern Recognition, having applications ranging from Computer Vision to Computational Chemistry. Whenever two complex patterns are encoded by two sets of points identifying their key features, their comparison can be seen as a point pattern matching problem. This work proposes a single approach to both exact and inexact point set matching in Euclidean Spaces of arbitrary dimension. In the case of exact matching, it is assured to find an optimal solution. For inexact matching (when noise is involved), experimental results confirm the validity of the approach. We start by regarding point pattern matching as a weighted graph matching problem. We then formulate the weighted graph matching problem as one of Bayesian inference in a probabilistic graphical model. By exploiting the existence of fundamental constraints in patterns embedded in Euclidean Spaces, we prove that for exact point set matching a simple graphical model is equivalent to the full model. It is possible to show that exact probabilistic inference in this simple model has polynomial time complexity with respect to the number of elements in the patterns to be matched. This gives rise to a technique that for exact matching provably finds a global optimum in polynomial time for any dimensionality of the underlying Euclidean Space. Computational experiments comparing this technique with well-known probabilistic relaxation labeling show significant performance improvement for inexact matching. The proposed approach is significantly more robust under augmentation of the sizes of the involved patterns. In the absence of noise, the results are always perfect.