Material characterisation and numerical modelling of gypsum plasterboards in fire

The fire resistance characteristic of LSF wall systems mainly depends on the protective linings in use, commonly gypsum plasterboards. However, unclassified boards with varying composition and more notably with ambiguous thermal properties are increasingly becoming available in the market. Therefore a study was undertaken with an aim to set minimum standards for fire protective boards used in LSF wall applications. This paper presents the details of this study based on material characterisation and finite element thermal modelling of the most commonly used fire protective board, gypsum plasterboards, to address these critical issues related to fire safety design. In the material characterisation phase of this study, thermal properties of three different gypsum plasterboards manufactured in Australia were measured, analysed and compared. Subsequently, it proposes a thermal property based “k-factor” capable of giving an overall measure of the fire performance of boards, so that it can be used in appropriately classifying fire protective boards. As it is not known how this factor relates to the overall fire performance of LSF wall systems, numerical models were also developed and used to simulate the performance of LSF walls exposed to the standard fire. Finally, a correlation between time-temperature profiles from numerical analyses and calculated k-factors was established.

A psychosocial analysis of parent's decisions for limiting their young child's screen time: An examination of attitudes, social norms and roles, and control perceptions

- Objectives Preschool-aged children spend substantial amounts of time engaged in screen-based activities. As parents have considerable control over their child's health behaviours during the younger years, it is important to understand those influences that guide parents' decisions about their child's screen time behaviours. - Design A prospective design with two waves of data collection, 1 week apart, was adopted. - Methods Parents (n = 207) completed a Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB)-based questionnaire, with the addition of parental role construction (i.e., parents' expectations and beliefs of responsibility for their child's behaviour) and past behaviour. A number of underlying beliefs identified in a prior pilot study were also assessed. - Results The model explained 77% (with past behaviour accounting for 5%) of the variance in intention and 50% (with past behaviour accounting for 3%) of the variance in parental decisions to limit child screen time. Attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioural control, parental role construction, and past behaviour predicted intentions, and intentions and past behaviour predicted follow-up behaviour. Underlying screen time beliefs (e.g., increased parental distress, pressure from friends, inconvenience) were also identified as guiding parents' decisions. - Conclusion Results support the TPB and highlight the importance of beliefs for understanding parental decisions for children's screen time behaviours, as well as the addition of parental role construction. This formative research provides necessary depth of understanding of sedentary lifestyle behaviours in young children which can be adopted in future interventions to test the efficacy of the TPB mechanisms in changing parental behaviour for their child's health.

The tired foot. The effects of physical activity, energy expenditure and sleep on the diabetic foot population

Background The most common pathway to development of diabetes foot ulcers is repetitive daily activity stress on the plantar surface of the neuropathic foot. Studies suggest an association between different diabetic foot complications and physical activity. However, to the best of the authors knowledge the steps/day and sleep patterns of people with diabetic foot ulcers has yet to be investigated. This observational study aims to investigate the physical activity and sleep patterns of three groups of adults with type 2 diabetes and different foot complications Methods Participants with type 2 diabetes were recruited into three groups: 1. those with no reported foot complications (DNIL), 2. those with diagnosis of neuropathy (DPN) and 3. those with a neuropathic ulcer (DFU). Exclusion criteria included peripheral arterial disease and mobility aid use. Participants wore a SenseWear Pro 3 Armband continuously for 7 days and completed an Epworth Sleepiness Scale. The Armband is a validated automated measure of activity (walking steps, average Metabolic Equivalent Task (MET), physical activity (>3 METs) duration), energy expenditure(kJ) (total and physical activity (>3 METs)) and sleep (duration). Data on age, sex, BMI, diabetes duration and HbA1c were also collected. Results Sixty-Six (14 DNIL, 22 DPN and 30 DFU's participants were recruited; 71% males, mean age 61(±12) years, diabetes duration 13(±9) years, HbA1c 8.3(±2.8), BMI 32.6(±5.9), average METs 1.2(0.2). Significant differences were reported in mean(SD) steps/day (5,859(±2,381) in DNIL; 5,007(±3,349) in DPN and 3,271(±2,417) in DFU's and daily energy expenditure (10,868(±1,307)kJ in DNIL; 11,060(±1,916)kJ in DPN and 13,006(± 3,559) in DFU's(p <0.05). No significant differences were reported for average METs, physical activity duration or energy expenditure, sleep time or Epworth score (p>0.1). Conclusions Preliminary findings suggest people with diabetes are sedentary. Results indicate that patients with a diabetic foot ulcer work significantly less than those with neuropathy or nil complications and use significantly more energy to do so. Sleep Parameters showed no differences. Recruitment is still on going.

Effect of pulse profile variations on measurement of eccentricity in orbits of Cen X-3 and SMC X-1

It has long been argued that better timing precision allowed by satellites like Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) will allow us to measure the orbital eccentricity and the angle of periastron of some of the bright persistent high-mass X-ray binaries (HMXBs) and hence a possible measurement of apsidal motion in these system. Measuring the rate of apsidal motion allows one to estimate the apsidal motion constant of the mass losing companion star and hence allows for the direct testing of the stellar structure models for these giant stars present in the HMXBs. In the present paper, we use the archival RXTE data of two bright persistent sources, namely Cen X-3 and SMC X-1, to measure the very small orbital eccentricity and the angle of periastron. We find that the small variations in the pulse profiles of these sources, rather than the intrinsic time resolution provided by RXTE, limit the accuracy with which we can measure arrival time of the pulses from these sources. This influences the accuracy with which one can measure the orbital parameters, especially the very small eccentricity and the angle of periastron in these sources. The observations of SMC X-1 in the year 2000 were taken during the high-flux state of the source and we could determine the orbital eccentricity and omega using this data set.

Application of z-COSY experiment and its variant for accurate chiral discrimination by H-1 NMR

We report the application of z-COSY experiment and a band selected version of it by employing a selective 90 degrees pulse entitled BASE-z-COSY for precise chiral discrimination, quantification of enantiomeric excess and the analyses of the H-1 NMR spectra of chiral molecules aligned in the chiral liquid crystalline solvent poly-gamma-benzyl-L-glutamate (PBLG). We have demonstrated their applicability for obtaining very high resolution in the H-1 NMR spectra of small organic molecules. It is well known that the commonly employed z-COSY experiment disentangles the spectral complexity, provides pure phase spectra with high resolution, aids in the complete spectral analyses, in addition to yielding information on relative signs of the Couplings. The BASE-z-COSY experiment possesses all these properties, permits the measure of enantiomeric excess, in addition to large saving of instrument time.

Modulation of growth by aromatase inhibitor treatment in boys: Efficacy and safety

Without estrogen action, the fusion of the growth plates is postponed and statural growth continues for an exceptionally long time. Aromatase inhibitors, blockers of estrogen biosynthesis, have therefore emerged as a new potential option for the treatment of children with short stature. We investigated the efficacy of the aromatase inhibitor letrozole in the treatment of boys with idiopathic short stature (ISS) using a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind research setting. A total of 30 boys completed the two-year treatment. By decreasing estrogen-mediated central negative feedback, letrozole increased gonadotrophin and testosterone secretion in pubertal boys, whereas the pubertal increase in IGF-I was inhibited. Treatment with letrozole effectively delayed bone maturation and increased predicted adult height by 5.9 cm (P0.001), while placebo had no effect on either parameter. The effect of letrozole treatment on near-final height was studied in another population, in boys with constitutional delay of puberty, who received letrozole (n=9) or placebo (n=8) for one year, in combination with low-dose testosterone for six months during adolescence. The mean near-final height of boys randomised to receive testosterone and letrozole was significantly greater than that of boys who received testosterone and placebo (175.8 vs. 169.1 cm, P=0.04). As regards safety, treatment effects on bone health, lipid metabolism, insulin sensitivity, and body composition were monitored in boys with ISS. During treatment, no differences in bone mass accrual were evident between the treatment groups, as evaluated by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry measurements of the lumbar spine and femoral neck. Bone turnover and cortical bone growth, however, were affected by letrozole treatment. As indicated by differences in markers of bone resorption (U-INTP) and formation (S-PINP and S-ALP), the long-term rate of bone turnover was lower in letrozole-treated boys, despite their more rapid advancement in puberty. Letrozole stimulated cortical bone growth in those who progressed in puberty: the metacarpal index (MCI), a measure of cortical bone thickness, increased more in letrozole-treated pubertal boys than in placebo-treated pubertal boys (25% vs. 9%, P=0.007). The change in MCI correlated positively with the mean testosterone-to-estradiol ratio. In post-treatment radiographic evaluation of the spine, a high rate of vertebral deformities - mild anterior wedging and mild compression deformities - were found in both placebo and letrozole groups. In pubertal boys with ISS treated with letrozole, stimulated testosterone secretion was associated with a decrease in the percentage of fat mass and in HDL-cholesterol, while LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides remained unchanged. Insulin sensitivity, as evaluated by HOMA-IR, was not significantly affected by the treatment. In summary, treatment with the aromatase inhibitor letrozole effectively delayed bone maturation and increased predicted adult height in boys with ISS. Long-term follow-up data of boys with constitutional delay of puberty, treated with letrozole for one year during adolescence, suggest that the achieved gain in predicted adult height also results in increased adult height. However, until the safety of aromatase inhibitor treatment in children and adolescents is confirmed, such treatment should be considered experimental.

Discovering user preferences by using time entries in click-through data to improve search engine results

The search engine log files have been used to gather direct user feedback on the relevancy of the documents presented in the results page. Typically the relative position of the clicks gathered from the log files is used a proxy for the direct user feedback. In this paper we identify reasons for the incompleteness of the relative position of clicks for deciphering the user preferences. Hence, we propose the use of time spent by the user in reading through the document as indicative of user preference for a document with respect to a query. Also, we identify the issues involved in using the time measure and propose means to address them.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

Asymptotic behaviour and boundedness of linear systems with time varying coefficients

Motivated by developments in spacecraft dynamics, the asymptotic behaviour and boundedness of solution of a special class of time varying systems in which each term appears as the sum of a constant and a time varying part, are analysed in this paper. It is not possible to apply standard textbook results to such systems, which are originally in second order. Some of the existing results are reformulated. Four theorems which explore the relations between the asymptotic behaviour/boundedness of the constant coefficient system, obtained by equating the time varying terms to zero, to the corresponding behaviour of the time varying system, are developed. The results show the behaviour of the two systems to be intimately related, provided the solutions of the constant coefficient system approach zero are bounded for large values of time, and the time varying terms are suitably restrained. Two problems are tackled using these theorems.

Unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility: An explanation to the low and time-varying predictive power of implied volatility

The low predictive power of implied volatility in forecasting the subsequently realized volatility is a well-documented empirical puzzle. As suggested by e.g. Feinstein (1989), Jackwerth and Rubinstein (1996), and Bates (1997), we test whether unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility could explain this phenomenon. Our findings show that expectations of infrequently occurring jumps in volatility are indeed priced in implied volatility. This has two important consequences. First, implied volatility is actually expected to exceed realized volatility over long periods of time only to be greatly less than realized volatility during infrequently occurring periods of very high volatility. Second, the slope coefficient in the classic forecasting regression of realized volatility on implied volatility is very sensitive to the discrepancy between ex ante expected and ex post realized jump frequencies. If the in-sample frequency of positive volatility jumps is lower than ex ante assessed by the market, the classic regression test tends to reject the hypothesis of informational efficiency even if markets are informationally effective.

Models of Dispersal and Diversification

Ecology and evolutionary biology is the study of life on this planet. One of the many methods applied to answering the great diversity of questions regarding the lives and characteristics of individual organisms, is the utilization of mathematical models. Such models are used in a wide variety of ways. Some help us to reason, functioning as aids to, or substitutes for, our own fallible logic, thus making argumentation and thinking clearer. Models which help our reasoning can lead to conceptual clarification; by expressing ideas in algebraic terms, the relationship between different concepts become clearer. Other mathematical models are used to better understand yet more complicated models, or to develop mathematical tools for their analysis. Though helping us to reason and being used as tools in the craftmanship of science, many models do not tell us much about the real biological phenomena we are, at least initially, interested in. The main reason for this is that any mathematical model is a simplification of the real world, reducing the complexity and variety of interactions and idiosynchracies of individual organisms. What such models can tell us, however, both is and has been very valuable throughout the history of ecology and evolution. Minimally, a model simplifying the complex world can tell us that in principle, the patterns produced in a model could also be produced in the real world. We can never know how different a simplified mathematical representation is from the real world, but the similarity models do strive for, gives us confidence that their results could apply. This thesis deals with a variety of different models, used for different purposes. One model deals with how one can measure and analyse invasions; the expanding phase of invasive species. Earlier analyses claims to have shown that such invasions can be a regulated phenomena, that higher invasion speeds at a given point in time will lead to a reduction in speed. Two simple mathematical models show that analysis on this particular measure of invasion speed need not be evidence of regulation. In the context of dispersal evolution, two models acting as proof-of-principle are presented. Parent-offspring conflict emerges when there are different evolutionary optima for adaptive behavior for parents and offspring. We show that the evolution of dispersal distances can entail such a conflict, and that under parental control of dispersal (as, for example, in higher plants) wider dispersal kernels are optimal. We also show that dispersal homeostasis can be optimal; in a setting where dispersal decisions (to leave or stay in a natal patch) are made, strategies that divide their seeds or eggs into fractions that disperse or not, as opposed to randomized for each seed, can prevail. We also present a model of the evolution of bet-hedging strategies; evolutionary adaptations that occur despite their fitness, on average, being lower than a competing strategy. Such strategies can win in the long run because they have a reduced variance in fitness coupled with a reduction in mean fitness, and fitness is of a multiplicative nature across generations, and therefore sensitive to variability. This model is used for conceptual clarification; by developing a population genetical model with uncertain fitness and expressing genotypic variance in fitness as a product between individual level variance and correlations between individuals of a genotype. We arrive at expressions that intuitively reflect two of the main categorizations of bet-hedging strategies; conservative vs diversifying and within- vs between-generation bet hedging. In addition, this model shows that these divisions in fact are false dichotomies.

Optimal infinite-horizon feedback laws for a general class of constrained discrete-time systems: stability and moving-horizon approximations

Stability results are given for a class of feedback systems arising from the regulation of time-varying discrete-time systems using optimal infinite-horizon and moving-horizon feedback laws. The class is characterized by joint constraints on the state and the control, a general nonlinear cost function and nonlinear equations of motion possessing two special properties. It is shown that weak conditions on the cost function and the constraints are sufficient to guarantee uniform asymptotic stability of both the optimal infinite-horizon and movinghorizon feedback systems. The infinite-horizon cost associated with the moving-horizon feedback law approaches the optimal infinite-horizon cost as the moving horizon is extended.

Accurate mass-based analysis in human sport doping control : Application of liquid chromatography - time-of-flight mass spectrometry

Human sport doping control analysis is a complex and challenging task for anti-doping laboratories. The List of Prohibited Substances and Methods, updated annually by World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), consists of hundreds of chemically and pharmacologically different low and high molecular weight compounds. This poses a considerable challenge for laboratories to analyze for them all in a limited amount of time from a limited sample aliquot. The continuous expansion of the Prohibited List obliges laboratories to keep their analytical methods updated and to research new available methodologies. In this thesis, an accurate mass-based analysis employing liquid chromatography - time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LC-TOFMS) was developed and validated to improve the power of doping control analysis. New analytical methods were developed utilizing the high mass accuracy and high information content obtained by TOFMS to generate comprehensive and generic screening procedures. The suitability of LC-TOFMS for comprehensive screening was demonstrated for the first time in the field with mass accuracies better than 1 mDa. Further attention was given to generic sample preparation, an essential part of screening analysis, to rationalize the whole work flow and minimize the need for several separate sample preparation methods. Utilizing both positive and negative ionization allowed the detection of almost 200 prohibited substances. Automatic data processing produced a Microsoft Excel based report highlighting the entries fulfilling the criteria of the reverse data base search (retention time (RT), mass accuracy, isotope match). The quantitative performance of LC-TOFMS was demonstrated with morphine, codeine and their intact glucuronide conjugates. After a straightforward sample preparation the compounds were analyzed directly without the need for hydrolysis, solvent transfer, evaporation or reconstitution. The hydrophilic interaction technique (HILIC) provided good chromatographic separation, which was critical for the morphine glucuronide isomers. A wide linear range (50-5000 ng/ml) with good precision (RSD<10%) and accuracy (±10%) was obtained, showing comparable or better performance to other methods used. In-source collision-induced dissociation (ISCID) allowed confirmation analysis with three diagnostic ions with a median mass accuracy of 1.08 mDa and repeatable ion ratios fulfilling WADA s identification criteria. The suitability of LC-TOFMS for screening of high molecular weight doping agents was demonstrated with plasma volume expanders (PVE), namely dextran and hydroxyethylstarch (HES). Specificity of the assay was improved, since interfering matrix compounds were removed by size exclusion chromatography (SEC). ISCID produced three characteristic ions with an excellent mean mass accuracy of 0.82 mDa at physiological concentration levels. In summary, by combining TOFMS with a proper sample preparation and chromatographic separation, the technique can be utilized extensively in doping control laboratories for comprehensive screening of chemically different low and high molecular weight compounds, for quantification of threshold substances and even for confirmation. LC-TOFMS rationalized the work flow in doping control laboratories by simplifying the screening scheme, expediting reporting and minimizing the analysis costs. Therefore LC-TOFMS can be exploited widely in doping control, and the need for several separate analysis techniques is reduced.

A vector measure for the intelligence of a question-answering (Q-A) system

The problem of quantification of intelligence of humans, and of intelligent systems, has been a challenging and controversial topic. IQ tests have been traditionally used to quantify human intelligence based on results of test designed by psychologists. It is in general very difficult to quantify intelligence. In this paper the authors consider a simple question-answering (Q-A) system and use this to quantify intelligence. The authors quantify intelligence as a vector with three components. The components consist of a measure of knowledge in asking questions, effectiveness of questions asked, and correctness of deduction. The authors formalize these parameters and have conducted experiments on humans to measure these parameters

Pillaring of smectites using an aluminium oligomer: A study of pillar density and thermal stability

Two smectite samples having different layer charges were pillared using hydroxy aluminium oligomers at a OH/Al ratio of 2.5 and at pH 4.3 to 4.6. Pillaring was carried out at different conditions such as ageing, temperature and base addition time of the pillaring solution, and also in the presence of nonionic surfactant polyoxyethylene sorbitanmonooleate (Tween-80). The primary objective of preparing at different conditions was to introduce varied quantities of aluminium oligomer between the layers and to study its effect on the properties of the pillared products. A simple method has been followed to estimate the amount of interlayer aluminium. A quantity called pillar density number (PDN) based on the ratio of interlayer Al adsorbed to CEC of the parent clay has been effectively used to evaluate the nature of the resulting pillared product. PDN, for a given clay, was found to correlate well with the sharpness of the d(001) peaks for the air dried samples. The calculated number of pillars, varied from 3.00 x 10(18) to 5.32 x 10(18) per meq charge. The present study shows that a higher value of PDN is indicative of better thermal stability. Pillar density number may be conveniently used as a measure of the thermal stability of pillared samples.