A century of global equity market correlations

In this paper, we use a unique long-run dataset of regulatory constraints on capital account openness to explain stock market correlations. Since stock returns themselves are highly volatile, any examination of what drives correlations needs to focus on long runs of data. This is particularly true since some of the short-term changes in co-movements appear to reverse themselves (Delroy Hunter 2005). We argue that changes in the co-movement of indices have not been random. Rather, they are mainly driven by greater freedom to move funds from one country to another. In related work, Geert Bekaert and Campbell Harvey (2000) show that equity correlations increase after liberalization of capital markets, using a number of case studies from emerging countries. We examine this pattern systematically for the last century, and find it to be most pronounced in the recent past. We compare the importance of capital account openness with one main alternative explanation, the growing synchronization of economic fundamentals. We conclude that greater openness has been the single most important cause of growing correlations during the last quarter of a century, though increasingly correlated economic fundamentals also matter. In the conclusion, we offer some thoughts on why the effects of greater openness appear to be so much stronger today than they were during the last era of globalization before 1914.

Trends in prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in the Republic of Seychelles (African region) between 1989 and 2013 [Poster]

Background: Few data exist on secular trends of high blood pressure (HBP) detection and control in low and middle income countries, particularly in the African region. This study examines trends of HBP over 25 years based on 4 independent population surveys. In the Seychelles, heath care is free to all inhabitants within a national health system, inclusive all HBP medications. Previous studies have shown a transition from traditional to cardiometabolic cardiovascular risk factors in Seychelles. Age adjusted cardiovascular disease mortality rates is high but decreasing over the last two decades.

Judges' cognition and market order

We argue that during the crystallization of common and civil law in the 19th century, the optimal degree of discretion in judicial rulemaking, albeit influenced by the comparative advantages of both legislative and judicial rulemaking, was mainly determined by the anti-market biases of the judiciary. The different degrees of judicial discretion adopted in both legal traditions were thus optimally adapted to different circumstances, mainly rooted in the unique, market-friendly, evolutionary transition enjoyed by English common law as opposed to the revolutionary environment of the civil law. On the Continent, constraining judicial discretion was essential for enforcing freedom of contract and establishing a market economy. The ongoing debasement of pro-market fundamentals in both branches of the Western legal system is explained from this perspective as a consequence of increased perceptions of exogenous risks and changes in the political system, which favored the adoption of sharing solutions and removed the cognitive advantage of parliaments and political leaders.

Adverse selection, credit and efficiency: The case of the missing market

We analyze a standard environment of adverse selection in credit markets. In our environment,entrepreneurs who are privately informed about the quality of their projects needto borrow in order to invest. Conventional wisdom says that, in this class of economies, thecompetitive equilibrium is typically inefficient.We show that this conventional wisdom rests on one implicit assumption: entrepreneurscan only access monitored lending. If a new set of markets is added to provide entrepreneurswith additional funds, efficiency can be attained in equilibrium. An important characteristic ofthese additional markets is that lending in them must be unmonitored, in the sense that it doesnot condition total borrowing or investment by entrepreneurs. This makes it possible to attainefficiency by pooling all entrepreneurs in the new markets while separating them in the marketsfor monitored loans.

General trends in world biogeographic literature: a preliminary bibliometric analysis

Records with the search string biogeograph* were collected from the Science Citation Index (SCI). A total of 3456 records were downloaded for the 1945-2006 period from titles of articles and reviews, and 10,543 records were downloaded for 1991-2006, taking into consideration also abstracts and keywords. Temporal trends of publications, geographical and institutional distribution of the research output, authorship, and core journals were evaluated. There were as many as 122 countries carrying out biogeographic research; in the most recent period, USA is the top producing country, followed by the United Kingdom, Australia, France, Germany, Spain, and Canada. There were 17,493 authors contributing to the field. During 1991-2006 there were 4098 organizations with authors involved in biogeographic research; institutions with higher number of papers are the Natural History Museum (United Kingdom), the University of California, Berkeley (USA), the Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle (France), the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (Mexico), the American Museum of Natural History (USA) and the Russian Academy of Sciences (Russia). Research articles are spread over a variety of journals, with the Journal of Biogeography, Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution, Molecular Ecology, and Biological Journal of the Linnean Society being the core journals. From 28,759 keywords retrieved those with the highest frequency were evolution, phylogeny, diversity, mitochondrial DNA, pattern(s), systematics, and population(s). We conclude that publications on biogeography have increased substantially during the last years, especially since 1998. The preferred journal for biogeographic papers is the Journal of Biogeography. Most frequent keywords seem to indicate that biogeography fits well within both evolutionary biology and ecology, with molecular biology and phylogenetics being important factors that drive their current development.

Evolution de l'incidence des cancers et des polypes colorectaux dans le canton de Vaud entre 1983 et 2007. [Trends in incidence of colorectal cancers and polyps in the Swiss canton of Vaud 1983-2007].

Colorectal cancer is the second most frequent cancer at death and third most common neoplasm in Switzerland, with about 1600 deaths and 4000 new cases per year, respectively. This study describes the recent trends in colorectal polyps and cancers in the canton of Vaud where a rare population-based series on polyps has been available since 1983. The most salient results are the exponential increase in the detection rates of polyps since the late 19805, associated with a doubling in the proportion of right-sided polyps, whereas colorectal cancer incidence remained constant over the last 25 years. The apparent paradox between the strong increase in detection and resection of polyps, largely due to screening activity, and the absence of reduction in colorectal cancer incidence in the Vaud population is discussed.

The impact of tax credits on labour supply

One of the principle aims of the Working Families' Tax Credit in the UK was to increase the participation of single mothers. The literature to date concludes there was approximately a five-percentage-point increase in employment of single mothers. The differences-in-differences methodology that is typically used compares single mother with single women without children. However, the characteristics of these groups are very different, and change over time in relative covariates are likely to violate the identifying assumption. We find that when we control for differential trends between women with and without children, the employment effect of the policy falls significantly. Moreover, the effect is borne solely by those working full-time (30 hours or more), while having no effect on inducing people into the labor market from inactivity. Looking closely at important covariates over time, we can see sizeable changes in the relative returns to employment between the treatment and control groups.

Assesing the political viability of labour market reform: The case of employment protection

We analyze the political support for employment protection legislation.Unlike my previous work on the same topic, this paper pays a lot ofattention to the role of obsolescence in the growth process.In voting in favour of employment protection, incumbent employeestrade off lower living standards (because employment protectionmaintains workers in less productive activities) against longer jobduration. The support for employment protection will then depend onthe value of the latter relative to the cost of the former. Wehighlight two key deeterminants of this trade-off: first, the workers'bargaining power, second, the economy's growth rate-more preciselyits rate of creative destruction.

Concepções, Práxis e Tendências de Desenvolvimento Curricular no Ensino Superior Público em Cabo Verde: um Estudo de Caso Sobre a Universidade de Cabo Verde

A tese enquadra-se nas discussões sobre as concepções do currículo, como problemática central nos processos de educação e formação, e o papel da Universidade ao longo dos tempos, mormente nos contextos actuais da globalização, conferindo especial relevo às concepções, práxis e tendências que caracterizam a experiência de desenvolvimento curricular na Universidade de Cabo Verde (Uni-CV), desde a sua criação, em Novembro de 2006, no seguimento de um percurso de quase três décadas do ensino superior público cabo-verdiano Com o enquadramento teórico da problemática da investigação faz-se uma ampla cartografia da literatura relevante no campo científico dos estudos curriculares, numa abordagem que patenteia a diversidade de conceptualizações do currículo e do desenvolvimento curricular, os principais traços característicos das teorias curriculares que se têm sucedido e ou que rivalizam na busca de hegemonia no sector da educação, bem como as políticas educativas e curriculares que vêm sendo concebidas e realizadas à escala global, dispensando atenção particular às dimensões instituinte e instituída do processo curricular. Ainda que fortemente condicionado pelas concepções e políticas de globalização da educação, a tendência para a uniformização educativa e curricular não constitui uma inevitabilidade, demonstrando-se, pelo contrário, que o processo de desenvolvimento curricular deixa espaços de apropriação e inovação ao nível das instituições educativas, atendendo à diversidade de contextos, expectativas e perspectivas inerentes à dinâmica da realização do currículo. Ainda no plano teórico, ao analisar-se a evolução do conceito ou ideia de Universidade, desde a sua génese até aos tempos actuais, coloca-se em relevo a natureza específica da instituição no âmbito do ensino superior, patenteando o modo como, nos diferentes contextos, a mesma tem procurado afirmar a centralidade do conhecimento e do currículo no cumprimento da sua missão, a despeito de factores e condicionalismos diversos, de entre os quais releva o tipo de relacionamento predominante entre a Universidade, o Estado e o mercado, no âmbito do qual se deve entender a complexidade da crise institucional, na triplicidade das suas manifestações (crise de legitimidade, de hegemonia e de identidade) que atravessa a academia, com reflexos ao nível das tendências para o condicionamento da autonomia, missão e funções da academia, assim como da própria natureza do conhecimento universitário. Na procura de saídas para a crise, que é global e, como tal, se reflecte nas universidades do continente africano, em que se insere Cabo Verde, a Universidade é desafiada a afirmar a sua especificidade institucional, enquanto promotora da alta cultura e da capacidade de pensamento de longo prazo, conciliando, deste modo, as suas funções essenciais ou simbólicas com as que se prendem com a satisfação das necessidades imediatas ou de curto prazo da economia e do mercado. Com base nos pertinentes subsídios teóricos, os estudos empíricos desenvolvem-se segundo a abordagem metodológica de estudo de caso, em que a análise documental e as técnicas de investigação qualitativa e quantitativa permitiram consolidar as evidências sobre: (i) os antecedentes da criação da Uni-CV, através do mapeamento do percurso académico e curricular dos diversos estabelecimentos públicos de ensino superior que precederam a universidade pública, legando a esta o seu património científico, tecnológico e logístico, com as inerentes potencialidades e limitações; (ii) o processo de institucionalização da Uni-CV, com a referencialização das opções estruturantes da organização e gestão da Universidade assim como da política educativa e curricular da Universidade; (iii) a experiência multifacetada de desenvolvimento curricular na novel instituição durante os cinco primeiros anos de funcionamento (2006-2011), correlacionando opções e práxis e evidenciando tendências da sua evolução. Da análise interpretativa dos estudos empíricos realizados, mediante a triangulação dos dados de arquivo e de perspectiva, resulta que a Uni-CV, não obstante as fragilidades persistentes no processo de seu desenvolvimento institucional, tem cumprido a sua missão de forma satisfatória, facto que fica a dever-se quer à adequação das opções, normas e directivas conformadoras da dimensão instituinte do processo curricular, quer ao esforço de realização das prescrições curriculares, sendo, todavia, evidentes os desafios a serem vencidos tendo em vista a consecução da almejada excelência académica, que os Estatutos propugnam, e que passa, nomeadamente, pela melhoria do nível da qualificação do seu corpo docente, pela implementação ou funcionamento efectivo de alguns dos órgãos da academia e pela afirmação da investigação científica como função incontornável para o desempenho cabal das funções de ensino e extensão. De entre as conclusões, sustenta-se que, no processo de integração de Cabo Verde nas redes internacionais de investigação e excelência científica e tecnológica, como, de resto, propugnam os Estatutos da Uni-CV, deve atender-se à especificidade deste pequeno país do Atlântico Médio, tendo em conta as suas fragilidades estruturais, pelo que se impõe algum distanciamento crítico em relação à incorporação de certas opções de política educativa e curricular que emanam de instâncias internacionais, independentemente do seu carácter inovador ou mesmo da sua possível consistência científica e técnica, comprovada em outros contextos.

Labour market in the Catalan cotton textile sector: Employment and fertility (1850-1913)

This paper deals whit the dynamics of the Catalan textile labour market (theSpanish region that concentrated most of the industrial and factory activity duringthe 19 Century) and offers hypotheses and results on the impact it had on livingstandards and fertility levels. We observe the formation of an uneven labourmarket in which male supply for labour (excluding women and children) grewmuch faster than the demand. We stress the fact that labour supply is verydependant on institutional factors liked to the transmition of household propertybetween generations. Instead the slow path of growth of adult males demand forlabour is witnessing the limits of this industry to expand and to compete ininternational markets. The strategy of working class families to adapt to scarceopportunities of employment we document here is the diminution of legitimatefertility levels. Fertility control is the direct instrument we think workers have tocontrol their number in a situation that was likely to create labour surpluses in theshort and mid run.

Product market deregulation and the U.S. employment miracle

We consider the dynamic relationship between product market entry regulation and equilibrium unemployment. The main theoretical contribution is combining a job matchingmodel with monopolistic competition in the goods market and individual wage bargaining.Product market competition affects unemployment by two channels: the output expansion effect and a countervailing effect due to a hiring externality. Competition is then linked to barriers to entry. We calibrate the model to US data and perform a policy experiment to assess whether the decrease in trend unemployment during the 1980 s and 1990 s could be attributed to product market deregulation. Our quantitative analysis suggests that under individual bargaining, a decrease of less than two tenths of a percentage point of unemployment rates can be attributed to product market deregulation, a surprisingly small amount.

Current trends in illegal drug use and drug related health problems in Switzerland.

As part of the evaluation of the Confederation's measures to reduce drug related problems, a review of available data on drug use and drug related problems in Switzerland has been conducted. Source of data included: population surveys (adults and teenagers), surveys among drug users, health statistics (drug related and AIDS related deaths, HIV case reporting, drug treatments) police statistics (denunciations for consumption). The aims of reducing the number of dependent hard drug users have been achieved where heroin is concerned. In particular, there seems to have been a decrease in the number of people becoming addicted to this substance. For all other illegal substances, especially cannabis, the trend is towards an increased use, as in many European countries. As regards dependent drug users, especially injecting drug users, progress has been made in the area of harm reduction and treatment coverage. This epidemiological assessment can be used in the discussions currently engaged about the revision of the Law governing narcotics and will be a baseline for future follow up of the situation.

Overconfidence and market efficiency with heterogeneous agents

We study financial markets in which both rational and overconfident agents coexist and make endogenous information acquisition decisions. We demonstrate the following irrelevance result: when a positive fraction of rational agents (endogeneously) decides to become informed in equilibrium, prices are set as if all investors were rational, and as a consequence the overconfidence bias does not aect informational efficiency, price volatility, rational traders expected profits or their welfare. Intuitively, as overconfidence goes up, so does price infornativeness, which makes rational agents cut their information acquisition activities, effectively undoing the standard effect of more aggressive trading by the overconfident.

Composition of electricity generation portfolios, pivotal dynamics and market prices

We use a simulation model to study how the diversification of electricity generation portfoliosinfluences wholesale prices. We find that technological diversification generally leads to lower market prices but that the relationship is mediated by the supply to demand ratio. In each demand case there is a threshold where pivotal dynamics change. Pivotal dynamics pre- and post-threshold are the cause of non-linearities in the influence of diversification on market prices. The findings are robust to our choice of behavioural parameters and match close-form solutions where those are available.