Spatiotemporal model or time series model for assessing city-wide temperature effects on mortality?

Most studies examining the temperature–mortality association in a city used temperatures from one site or the average from a network of sites. This may cause measurement error as temperature varies across a city due to effects such as urban heat islands. We examined whether spatiotemporal models using spatially resolved temperatures produced different associations between temperature and mortality compared with time series models that used non-spatial temperatures. We obtained daily mortality data in 163 areas across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. We used ordinary kriging to interpolate spatial temperature variation across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. We used a spatiotemporal model to examine the impact of spatially resolved temperatures on mortality. Also, we used a time series model to examine non-spatial temperatures using a single site and the average temperature from three sites. We used squared Pearson scaled residuals to compare model fit. We found that kriged temperatures were consistent with observed temperatures. Spatiotemporal models using kriged temperature data yielded slightly better model fit than time series models using a single site or the average of three sites' data. Despite this better fit, spatiotemporal and time series models produced similar associations between temperature and mortality. In conclusion, time series models using non-spatial temperatures were equally good at estimating the city-wide association between temperature and mortality as spatiotemporal models.

Sunshine, rainfall, humidity and child pneumonia in the tropics : time-series analyses

Few studies have formally examined the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of child pneumonia in the tropics, despite the fact that most child pneumonia deaths occur there. We examined the association between four meteorological exposures (rainy days, sunshine, relative humidity, temperature) and the incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children in the Philippines using three time-series methods: correlation of seasonal patterns, distributed lag regression, and case-crossover. Lack of sunshine was most strongly associated with pneumonia in both lagged regression [overall relative risk over the following 60 days for a 1-h increase in sunshine per day was 0·67 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0·51–0·87)] and case-crossover analysis [odds ratio for a 1-h increase in mean daily sunshine 8–14 days earlier was 0·95 (95% CI 0·91–1·00)]. This association is well known in temperate settings but has not been noted previously in the tropics. Further research to assess causality is needed.

Locked nucleic acid (LNA) single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype analysis and validation using real-time PCR

With an increased emphasis on genotyping of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in disease association studies, the genotyping platform of choice is constantly evolving. In addition, the development of more specific SNP assays and appropriate genotype validation applications is becoming increasingly critical to elucidate ambiguous genotypes. In this study, we have used SNP specific Locked Nucleic Acid (LNA) hybridization probes on a real-time PCR platform to genotype an association cohort and propose three criteria to address ambiguous genotypes. Based on the kinetic properties of PCR amplification, the three criteria address PCR amplification efficiency, the net fluorescent difference between maximal and minimal fluorescent signals and the beginning of the exponential growth phase of the reaction. Initially observed SNP allelic discrimination curves were confirmed by DNA sequencing (n = 50) and application of our three genotype criteria corroborated both sequencing and observed real-time PCR results. In addition, the tested Caucasian association cohort was in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and observed allele frequencies were very similar to two independently tested Caucasian association cohorts for the same tested SNP. We present here a novel approach to effectively determine ambiguous genotypes generated from a real-time PCR platform. Application of our three novel criteria provides an easy to use semi-automated genotype confirmation protocol.

Travel time prediction on signalised urban arterials by applying SARIMA modelling on Bluetooth data

Travel time prediction has long been the topic of transportation research. But most relevant prediction models in the literature are limited to motorways. Travel time prediction on arterial networks is challenging due to involving traffic signals and significant variability of individual vehicle travel time. The limited availability of traffic data from arterial networks makes travel time prediction even more challenging. Recently, there has been significant interest of exploiting Bluetooth data for travel time estimation. This research analysed the real travel time data collected by the Brisbane City Council using the Bluetooth technology on arterials. Databases, including experienced average daily travel time are created and classified for approximately 8 months. Thereafter, based on data characteristics, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modelling is applied on the database for short-term travel time prediction. The SARMIA model not only takes the previous continuous lags into account, but also uses the values from the same time of previous days for travel time prediction. This is carried out by defining a seasonality coefficient which improves the accuracy of travel time prediction in linear models. The accuracy, robustness and transferability of the model are evaluated through comparing the real and predicted values on three sites within Brisbane network. The results contain the detailed validation for different prediction horizons (5 min to 90 minutes). The model performance is evaluated mainly on congested periods and compared to the naive technique of considering the historical average.

Modelling busway station dwell time using smart cards

Dwell time at the busway station has a significant effect on bus capacity and delay. Dwell time has conventionally been estimated using models developed on the basis of field survey data. However field survey is resource and cost intensive, so dwell time estimation based on limited observations can be somewhat inaccurate. Most public transport systems are now equipped with Automatic Passenger Count (APC) and/or Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) systems. AFC in particular reduces on-board ticketing time, driver’s work load and ultimately reduces bus dwell time. AFC systems can record all passenger transactions providing transit agencies with access to vast quantities of data. AFC data provides transaction timestamps, however this information differs from dwell time because passengers may tag on or tag off at times other than when doors open and close. This research effort contended that models could be developed to reliably estimate dwell time distributions when measured distributions of transaction times are known. Development of the models required calibration and validation using field survey data of actual dwell times, and an appreciation of another component of transaction time being bus time in queue. This research develops models for a peak period and off peak period at a busway station on the South East Busway (SEB) in Brisbane, Australia.

Distinguishing between mean-field, moment dynamics and stochastic descriptions of birth-death-movement processes

Mathematical descriptions of birth–death–movement processes are often calibrated to measurements from cell biology experiments to quantify tissue growth rates. Here we describe and analyze a discrete model of a birth–death-movement process applied to a typical two–dimensional cell biology experiment. We present three different descriptions of the system: (i) a standard mean–field description which neglects correlation effects and clustering; (ii) a moment dynamics description which approximately incorporates correlation and clustering effects, and; (iii) averaged data from repeated discrete simulations which directly incorporates correlation and clustering effects. Comparing these three descriptions indicates that the mean–field and moment dynamics approaches are valid only for certain parameter regimes, and that both these descriptions fail to make accurate predictions of the system for sufficiently fast birth and death rates where the effects of spatial correlations and clustering are sufficiently strong. Without any method to distinguish between the parameter regimes where these three descriptions are valid, it is possible that either the mean–field or moment dynamics model could be calibrated to experimental data under inappropriate conditions, leading to errors in parameter estimation. In this work we demonstrate that a simple measurement of agent clustering and correlation, based on coordination number data, provides an indirect measure of agent correlation and clustering effects, and can therefore be used to make a distinction between the validity of the different descriptions of the birth–death–movement process.

“Would you; could you; on a boat?” Wait-time and travel-time activities during river ferry journeys and their relationship to overall satisfaction in Brisbane Queensland

This study investigates travel behaviour and wait-time activities as a component of passenger satisfaction with public transport in Brisbane, Australia. Australian transport planners recognise a variety of benefits to encouraging a mode shift away from automobile travel in favour of active and public transport use. Efforts to increase public transport ridership have included introducing state of the art passenger information systems, improving physical station access, and integrating system pricing, routes and scheduling for train, bus and ferry. Previous research regarding satisfaction with public transport emphasizes technical dimensions of service quality, including the timing and reliability of service. Those factors might be especially significant for frequent (commuting) travellers who look to balance the cost and efficiency of their travel options. In contrast, infrequent (leisure) passengers may be more concerned with way finding and the sensory experience of the journey. Perhaps due to the small relative proportion of trips made by river ferry compared to bus and rail, this mode of public transport has not received as much attention in travel-behaviour research. This case study of Brisbane’s river ferry system examines ferry passengers at selected terminals during peak and off-peak travel times to find out how travel behaviours and activities correlate to satisfaction with ferry travel. Data include 416 questionnaires completed by passengers intercepted during wait times at seven CityCat terminals in Brisbane. Descriptive statistical analysis revealed associations between specific wait time activities and satisfaction levels that could inform planners seeking to increase ridership and quality of life through ferry-oriented development.

The effect of polystyrene sodium sulfonate grafting on polyethylene terephthalate artificial ligaments on in vitro mineralisation and in vivo bone tissue integration

This study investigates the impact of polystyrene sodium sulfonate (PolyNaSS) grafting onto the osseo-integration of a polyethylene terephthalate artificial ligament (Ligament Advanced Reinforcement System, LARS™) used for Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL). The performance of grafted and non-grafted ligaments was assessed in vitro by culturing human osteoblasts under osteogenic induction and this demonstrated that the surface modification was capable of up-regulating the secretion of ALP and induced higher level of mineralisation as measured 6 weeks post-seeding by Micro-Computed Tomography. Grafted and non-grafted LARS™ were subsequently implanted in an ovine model for ACL reconstruction and the ligament-to-bone interface was evaluated by histology and biomechanical testings 3 and 12 months post-implantation. The grafted ligaments exhibited more frequent direct ligament-to-bone contact and bone formation in the core of the ligament at the later time point than the non-grafted specimens, the grafting also significantly reduced the fibrous encapsulation of the ligament 12 months post-implantation. However, this improved osseo-integration was not translated into a significant increase in the biomechanical pull-out loads. These results provide evidences that PolyNaSS grafting improved the osseo-integration of the artificial ligament within the bone tunnels. This might positively influence the outcome of the surgical reconstructions, as higher ligament stability is believed to limit micro-movement and therefore permits earlier and enhanced healing.

Optical and biomechanical factors, associated with near work and myopia

Near work may play an important role in the development of myopia in the younger population. The prevalence of myopia has also been found to be higher in occupations that involve substantial near work tasks, for example in microscopists and textile workers. When nearwork is performed, it typically involves accommodation, convergence and downward gaze. A number of previous studies have examined the effects of accommodation and convergence on changes in the optics and biometrics of the eye in primary gaze. However, little is known about the influence of accommodation on the eye in downward gaze. This thesis is primarily concerned with investigating the changes in the eye during near work in downward gaze under natural viewing conditions. To measure wavefront aberrations in downward gaze under natural viewing conditions, we modified a commercial Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor by adding a relay lens system to allow on-axis ocular aberration measurements in primary gaze and downward gaze, with binocular fixation. Measurements with the modified wavefront sensor in primary and downward gaze were validated against a conventional aberrometer using both a model eye and in 9 human subjects. We then conducted an experiment to investigate changes in ocular aberrations associated with accommodation in downward gaze over 10 mins in groups of both myopes (n = 14) and emmetropes (n =12) using the modified Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor. During the distance accommodation task, small but significant changes in refractive power (myopic shift) and higher order aberrations were observed in downward gaze compared to primary gaze. Accommodation caused greater changes in higher order aberrations (in particular coma and spherical aberration) in downward gaze than primary gaze, and there was evidence that the changes in certain aberrations with accommodation over time were different in downward gaze compared to primary gaze. There were no obvious systematic differences in higher order aberrations between refractive error groups during accommodation or downward gaze for fixed pupils. However, myopes exhibited a significantly greater change in higher order aberrations (in particular spherical aberration) than emmetropes for natural pupils after 10 mins of a near task (5 D accommodation) in downward gaze. These findings indicated that ocular aberrations change from primary to downward gaze, particularly with accommodation. To understand the mechanism underlying these changes in greater detail, we then extended this work to examine the characteristics of the corneal optics, internal optics, anterior biometrics and axial length of the eye during a near task, in downward gaze, over 10 mins. Twenty young adult subjects (10 emmetropes and 10 myopes) participated in this study. To measure corneal topography and ocular biometrics in downward gaze, a rotating Scheimpflug camera and an optical biometer were inclined on a custom built, height and tilt adjustable table. We found that both corneal optics and internal optics change with downward gaze, resulting in a myopic shift (~0.10 D) in the spherical power of the eye. The changes in corneal optics appear to be due to eyelid pressure on the anterior surface of the cornea, whereas the changes in the internal optics (an increase in axial length and a decrease in anterior chamber depth) may be associated with movement of the crystalline lens, under the action of gravity, and the influence of altered biomechanical forces from the extraocular muscles on the globe with downward gaze. Changes in axial length with accommodation were significantly greater in downward gaze than primary gaze (p < 0.05), indicating an increased effect of the mechanical forces from the ciliary muscle and extraocular muscles. A subsequent study was conducted to investigate the changes in anterior biometrics, axial length and choroidal thickness in nine cardinal gaze directions under the actions of the extraocular muscles. Ocular biometry measurements were obtained from 30 young adults (10 emmetropes, 10 low myopes and 10 moderate myopes) through a rotating prism with 15° deviation, along the foveal axis, using a non-contact optical biometer in each of nine different cardinal directions of gaze, over 5 mins. There was a significant influence of gaze angle and time on axial length (both p < 0.001), with the greatest axial elongation (+18 ± 8 μm) occurring with infero-nasal gaze (p < 0.001) and a slight decrease in axial length in superior gaze (−12 ± 17 μm) compared with primary gaze (p < 0.001). There was a significant correlation between refractive error (spherical equivalent refraction) and the mean change in axial length in the infero-nasal gaze direction (Pearson's R2 = 0.71, p < 0.001). To further investigate the relative effect of gravity and extraocular muscle force on the axial length, we measured axial length in 15° and 25° downward gaze with the biometer inclined on a tilting table that allowed gaze shifts to occur with either full head turn but no eye turn (reflects the effect of gravity), or full eye turn with no head turn (reflects the effect of extraocular muscle forces). We observed a significant axial elongation in 15° and 25° downward gaze in the full eye turn condition. However, axial length did not change significantly in downward gaze over 5 mins (p > 0.05) in the full head turn condition. The elongation of the axial length in downward gaze appears to be due to the influence of the extraocular muscles, since the effect was not present when head turn was used instead of eye turn. The findings of these experiments collectively show the dynamic characteristics of the optics and biometrics of the eye in downward gaze during a near task, over time. These were small but significant differences between myopic and emmetropic eyes in both the optical and biomechanical changes associated with shifts of gaze direction. These differences between myopes and emmetropes could arise as a consequence of excessive eye growth associated with myopia. However the potentially additive effects of repeated or long lasting near work activities employing infero-nasal gaze could also act to promote elongation of the eye due to optical and/or biomechanical stimuli.

Agent-based model of passenger flows in airport terminals

Passenger flow studies in airport terminals have shown consistent statistical relationships between airport spatial layout and pedestrian movement, facilitating prediction of movement from terminal designs. However, these studies are done at an aggregate level and do not incorporate how individual passengers make decisions at a microscopic level. Therefore, they do not explain the formation of complex movement flows. In addition, existing models mostly focus on standard airport processing procedures such as immigration and security, but seldom consider discretionary activities of passengers, and thus are not able to truly describe the full range of passenger flows within airport terminals. As the route-choice decision-making of passengers involves many uncertain factors within the airport terminals, the mechanisms to fulfill the capacity of managing the route-choice have proven difficult to acquire and quantify. Could the study of cognitive factors of passengers (i.e. human mental preferences of deciding which on-airport facility to use) be useful to tackle these issues? Assuming the movement in virtual simulated environments can be analogous to movement in real environments, passenger behaviour dynamics can be similar to those generated in virtual experiments. Three levels of dynamics have been devised for motion control: the localised field, tactical level, and strategic level. A localised field refers to basic motion capabilities, such as walking speed, direction and avoidance of obstacles. The other two fields represent cognitive route-choice decision-making. This research views passenger flow problems via a "bottom-up approach", regarding individual passengers as independent intelligent agents who can behave autonomously and are able to interact with others and the ambient environment. In this regard, passenger flow formation becomes an emergent phenomenon of large numbers of passengers interacting with others. In the thesis, first, the passenger flow in airport terminals was investigated. Discretionary activities of passengers were integrated with standard processing procedures in the research. The localised field for passenger motion dynamics was constructed by a devised force-based model. Next, advanced traits of passengers (such as their desire to shop, their comfort with technology and their willingness to ask for assistance) were formulated to facilitate tactical route-choice decision-making. The traits consist of quantified measures of mental preferences of passengers when they travel through airport terminals. Each category of the traits indicates a decision which passengers may take. They were inferred through a Bayesian network model by analysing the probabilities based on currently available data. Route-choice decision-making was finalised by calculating corresponding utility results based on those probabilities observed. Three sorts of simulation outcomes were generated: namely, queuing length before checkpoints, average dwell time of passengers at service facilities, and instantaneous space utilisation. Queuing length reflects the number of passengers who are in a queue. Long queues no doubt cause significant delay in processing procedures. The dwell time of each passenger agent at the service facilities were recorded. The overall dwell time of passenger agents at typical facility areas were analysed so as to demonstrate portions of utilisation in the temporal aspect. For the spatial aspect, the number of passenger agents who were dwelling within specific terminal areas can be used to estimate service rates. All outcomes demonstrated specific results by typical simulated passenger flows. They directly reflect terminal capacity. The simulation results strongly suggest that integrating discretionary activities of passengers makes the passenger flows more intuitive, observing probabilities of mental preferences by inferring advanced traits make up an approach capable of carrying out tactical route-choice decision-making. On the whole, the research studied passenger flows in airport terminals by an agent-based model, which investigated individual characteristics of passengers and their impact on psychological route-choice decisions of passengers. Finally, intuitive passenger flows in airport terminals were able to be realised in simulation.

Tactile abstractions [Exhibition Catalogue Essay]

Among the many meanings of abstraction is the focus on images that are at a distance from their origins. This understanding of abstraction is central to Savanhdary Vongpoothorn’s layered, textured and sensuous canvas Crossing (2003). The references in this painting to Laotian textile design and creation endows it with the sense of a fabric-like nature, gives it the feel of cloth wrapped around bodies and of threads woven into complex symmetrical patterns. Here, the distance from origins is expressed as a separation from the material forms of Lao culture. At the same time the work is a visual reference to the stretching or bending of forms, the breaking up of shapes in the natural or constructed environment, all of which create an expressive effect through the warm rose grid and visual illusions of movement and travel. This visual play suggests the sense that migration or movement is a means through which cultural forms get recoded and translated. The making of Crossing like many of Savanhdary’s works involved manipulation of the canvas through pricking and poking, and then the application of layers and dots of paint. The overall effect is one of a synthesis of different cultural motifs and the addition of new dimensions to familiar forms. This highlights the centrality of the idea of 'reassemblage’ in abstraction, the processes of remaking of self, of the natural world and of cultural artefacts. Savanhdary constructs intricate laced knots of colour and texture in work which expresses the possibilities presented by travel, migration and the subsequent remixture that emerges upon crossing through different cultural worlds.

A matter of time

The Queensland Court of Appeal recently handed down its decision in Caprice Property Holdings Pty Ltd v McLeay [2013] QCA 120. The decision considers the operation of the standard REIQ contract for the sale of land as it impacts on the time for settlement and the respective obligations of the buyer and the seller. The decision highlights both practical and legal issues arising from a failure to render performance at the stipulated time...

How to increase the accuracy of analysis and reduce the computational time in ANSYS in the case of deformation study of orthopedic bone plates

Currently, finite element analyses are usually done by means of commercial software tools. Accuracy of analysis and computational time are two important factors in efficiency of these tools. This paper studies the effective parameters in computational time and accuracy of finite element analyses performed by ANSYS and provides the guidelines for the users of this software whenever they us this software for study on deformation of orthopedic bone plates or study on similar cases. It is not a fundamental scientific study and only shares the findings of the authors about structural analysis by means of ANSYS workbench. It gives an idea to the readers about improving the performance of the software and avoiding the traps. The solutions provided in this paper are not the only possible solutions of the problems and in similar cases there are other solutions which are not given in this paper. The parameters of solution method, material model, geometric model, mesh configuration, number of the analysis steps, program controlled parameters and computer settings are discussed through thoroughly in this paper.

The consistency of crash involvement recall across time

Introduction Road safety researchers rely heavily on self-report data to explore the aetiology of crash risk. However, researchers consistently acknowledge a range of limitations associated with this methodological approach (e.g., self-report bias), which has been hypothesised to reduce the predictive efficacy of scales. Although well researched in other areas, one important factor often neglected in road safety studies is the fallibility of human memory. Given accurate recall is a key assumption in many studies, the validity and consistency of self-report data warrants investigation. The aim of the current study was to examine the consistency of self-report data of crash history and details of the most recent reported crash on two separate occasions. Materials & Method A repeated measures design was utilised to examine the self-reported crash involvement history of 214 general motorists over a two month period. Results A number of interesting discrepancies were noted in relation to number of lifetime crashes reported by the participants and the descriptions of their most recent crash across the two occasions. Of the 214 participants who reported having been involved in a crash, 35 (22.3%) reported a lower number of lifetime crashes as Time 2, than at Time 1. Of the 88 drivers who reported no change in number of lifetime crashes, 10 (11.4%) described a different most recent crash. Additionally, of the 34 reporting an increase in the number of lifetime crashes, 29 (85.3%) of these described the same crash on both occasions. Assessed as a whole, at least 47.1% of participants made a confirmed mistake at Time 1 or Time 2. Conclusions These results raise some doubt in regard to the accuracy of memory recall across time. Given that self-reported crash involvement is the predominant dependent variable used in the majority of road safety research, this issue warrants further investigation. Replication of the study with a larger sample size that includes multiple recall periods would enhance understanding into the significance of this issue for road safety methodology.

An ecological dynamics approach to skill acquisition : implications for development of talent in sport.

This paper proposes how ecological dynamics, a theory focusing on the performer-environment relationship, provides a basis for understanding skill acquisition in sport. From this perspective, learners are conceptualized as complex, neurobiological systems in which inherent self-organisation tendencies support the emergence of adaptive behaviours under a range of interacting task and environmental constraints. Intentions, perceptions and actions are viewed as intertwined processes which underpin functional movement solutions assembled by each learner during skill acquisition. These ideas suggest that skill acquisition programmes need to sample information from the performance environment to guide behaviour in practice tasks. Skill acquisition task protocols should allow performers to use movement variability to explore and create opportunities for action, rather than constraining them to passively receiving information. This conceptualisation also needs to characterize the design of talent evaluation tests, which need to faithfully represent the perception-action relationships in the performance environment. Since the dynamic nature of changing task constraints in sports cannot be predicted over longer timescales, an implication is that talent programmes should focus on developing performance expertise in each individual, rather than over-relying on identification of expert performers at specific points in time.