The value of serum procalcitonin level for differentiation of infectious from noninfectious causes of fever after orthopaedic surgery.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis of postoperative orthopaedic infections is important in order to rapidly initiate adequate antimicrobial therapy. There are currently no reliable diagnostic markers to differentiate infectious from noninfectious causes of postoperative fever. We investigated the value of the serum procalcitonin level in febrile patients after orthopaedic surgery. METHODS: We prospectively evaluated 103 consecutive patients with new onset of fever within ten days after orthopaedic surgery. Fever episodes were classified by two independent investigators who were blinded to procalcitonin results as infectious or noninfectious origin. White blood-cell count, C-reactive protein level, and procalcitonin level were assessed on days 0, 1, and 3 of the postoperative fever. RESULTS: Infection was diagnosed in forty-five (44%) of 103 patients and involved the respiratory tract (eighteen patients), urinary tract (eighteen), joints (four), surgical site (two), bloodstream (two), and soft tissues (one). Unlike C-reactive protein levels and white blood-cell counts, procalcitonin values were significantly higher in patients with infection compared with patients without infection on the day of fever onset (p = 0.04), day 1 (p = 0.07), and day 3 (p = 0.003). Receiver-operating characteristics demonstrated that procalcitonin had the highest diagnostic accuracy, with a value of 0.62, 0.62, and 0.71 on days 0, 1, and 3, respectively. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, procalcitonin was a significant predictor for postoperative infection on days 0, 1, and 3 of fever with an odds ratio of 2.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 4.4), 2.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 5.2), and 3.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 9.0), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Serum procalcitonin is a helpful diagnostic marker supporting clinical and microbiological findings for more reliable differentiation of infectious from noninfectious causes of fever after orthopaedic surgery.

Parameter estimation for the distribution of single cell lag times.

In Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, it is vital to understand how lag times of individual cells are distributed over a bacterial population. Such identified distributions can be used to predict the time by which, in a growth-supporting environment, a few pathogenic cells can multiply to a poisoning concentration level. We model the lag time of a single cell, inoculated into a new environment, by the delay of the growth function characterizing the generated subpopulation. We introduce an easy-to-implement procedure, based on the method of moments, to estimate the parameters of the distribution of single cell lag times. The advantage of the method is especially apparent for cases where the initial number of cells is small and random, and the culture is detectable only in the exponential growth phase.

Book vs. Fair Value Accounting in Banking, and Intertemporal Smoothing

The aim of this paper is to examine the pros and cons of book and fair value accounting from the perspective of the theory of banking. We consider the implications of the two accounting methods in an overlapping generations environment. As observed by Allen and Gale(1997), in an overlapping generation model, banks have a role as intergenerational connectors as they allow for intertemporal smoothing. Our main result is that when dividends depend on profits, book value ex ante dominates fair value, as it provides better intertemporal smoothing. This is in contrast with the standard view that states that, fair value yields a better allocation as it reflects the real opportunity cost of assets. Banking regulation play an important role by providing the right incentives for banks to smooth intertemporal consumption whereas market discipline improves intratemporal efficiency.

Adverse Selection, Credit, and Efficiency: the Case of the Missing Market

We analyze a standard environment of adverse selection in credit markets. In our envi- ronment, entrepreneurs who are privately informed about the quality of their projects need to borrow from banks. As is generally the case in economies with adverse selection, the competitive equilibrium of our economy is shown to be ine¢ cient. Under adverse selection, the choices made by one type of agents limit what can be o¤ered to other types in an incentive-compatible manner. This gives rise to an externality, which cannot be internalized in a competitive equilibrium. We show that, in this type of environment, the ine¢ ciency associated to adverse selection is the consequence of one implicit assumption: entrepreneurs can only borrow from banks. If an additional market is added (say, a .security market.), in which entrepreneurs can obtain funds beyond those o¤ered by banks, we show that the e¢ cient allocation is an equilibrium of the economy. In such an equilibrium, all entrepreneurs borrow at a pooling rate in the security market. When they apply to bank loans, though, only entrepreneurs with good projects pledge these additional funds as collateral. This equilibrium thus simultaneously entails cross- subsidization and separation between di¤erent types of entrepreneurs.

Adverse selection, credit, and efficiency: the case of the missing market

We analyze a standard environment of adverse selection in credit markets. In our environment, entrepreneurs who are privately informed about the quality of their projects need to borrow in order to invest. Conventional wisdom says that, in this class of economies, the competitive equilibrium is typically inefficient. We show that this conventional wisdom rests on one implicit assumption: entrepreneurs can only access monitored lending. If a new set of markets is added to provide entrepreneurs with additional funds, efficiency can be attained in equilibrium. An important characteristic of these additional markets is that lending in them must be unmonitored, in the sense that it does not condition total borrowing or investment by entrepreneurs. This makes it possible to attain efficiency by pooling all entrepreneurs in the new markets while separating them in the markets for monitored loans.

Panel index VAR models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators

This paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The approach can be used to obtain multi-unit forecasts and leading indicators and to conduct policy analysis in a multiunit setups. The framework of analysis is Bayesian and MCMC methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest. The model is reparametrized to resemble an observable index model and specification searches are discussed. As an example, we construct leading indicators for inflation and GDP growth in the Euro area using G-7 information.

Prediction of clinical response after renal angioplasty: respective value of renal Doppler sonography and scintigraphy.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of our study was to compare Doppler sonography and renal scintigraphy as tools for predicting the therapeutic response in patients after undergoing renal angioplasty. SUBJECTS AND METHODS. Seventy-four hypertensive patients underwent clinical examination, Doppler sonography, and renal scintigraphy before and after receiving captopril in preparation for renal revascularization. The patients were evaluated for the status of hypertension 3 months after the procedure. The predictive values of the findings of clinical examination, Doppler sonography, renal scintigraphy, and angiography were assessed. RESULTS: For prediction of a favorable therapeutic outcome, abnormal results from renal scintigraphy before and after captopril administration had a sensitivity of 58% and specificity of 57%. Findings of Doppler sonography had a sensitivity of 68% and specificity of 50% before captopril administration and a sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 32% after captopril administration. Significant predictors of a cure or reduction of hypertension after revascularization were low unilateral (p = 0.014) and bilateral resistive (p = 0.016) indexes on Doppler sonography before (p = 0.009) and after (p = 0.028) captopril administration. On multivariate analysis, the best predictors were a unilateral resistive index of less than 0.65 (odds ratio [OR] = 3.7) after captopril administration and a kidney longer than 93 mm (OR = 7.8). The two best combined criteria to predict the favorable therapeutic outcome were a bilateral resistive index of less than 0.75 before captopril administration combined with a unilateral resistive index of less than 0.70 after captopril administration (sensitivity, 76%; specificity, 58%) or a bilateral resistive index of less than 0.75 before captopril administration and a kidney measuring longer than 90 mm (sensitivity, 81%; specificity, 50%). CONCLUSION: Measurements of kidney length and unilateral and bilateral resistive indexes before and after captopril administration were useful in predicting the outcome after renal angioplasty. Renal scintigraphy had no significant predictive value.

Reply to Budowle, Ge, Chakraborty and Gill-King: use of prior odds for missing persons identifications

Prior probabilities represent a core element of the Bayesian probabilistic approach to relatedness testing. This letter opinions on the commentary 'Use of prior odds for missing persons identifications' by Budowle et al. (2011), published recently in this journal. Contrary to Budowle et al. (2011), we argue that the concept of prior probabilities (i) is not endowed with the notion of objectivity, (ii) is not a case for computation and (iii) does not require new guidelines edited by the forensic DNA community - as long as probability is properly considered as an expression of personal belief. Please see related article: http://www.investigativegenetics.com/content/3/1/3

Ecologies of Value in a Wall Street Trading Room

Our task in this paper is to analyze the organization of trading in the era of quantitative finance. To do so, we conduct an ethnography of arbitrage, the trading strategy that best exemplifies finance in the wake of the quantitative revolution. In contrast to value and momentum investing, we argue, arbitrage involves an art of association-the construction of equivalence (comparability) of properties across different assets. In place of essential or relational characteristics, the peculiar valuation that takes place in arbitrage is based on an operation that makes something the measure of something else-associating securities to each other. The process of recognizing opportunities and the practices of making novel associations are shaped by the specific socio-spatial and socio-technical configurations of the trading room. Calculation is distributed across persons and instruments as the trading room organizes interaction among diverse principles of valuation.

Weak and Strong Altruism in Trait Groups: Reproductive Suicide, Personal Fitness, and Expected Value

A simple variant of trait group selection, employing predators as the mechanism underlying group selection, supports contingent reproductive suicide as altruism (i.e., behavior lowering personal fitness while augmenting that of another) without kin assortment. The contingent suicidal type may either saturate the population or be polymorphic with a type avoiding suicide, depending on parameters. In addition to contingent suicide, this randomly assorting morph may also exhibit continuously expressed strong altruism (sensu Wilson 1979) usually thought restricted to kin selection. The model will not, however, support a sterile worker caste as such, where sterility occurs before life history events associated with effective altruism; reproductive suicide must remain fundamentally contingent (facultative sensu West Eberhard 1987; Myles 1988) under random assortment. The continuously expressed strong altruism supported by the model may be reinterpreted as probability of arbitrarily committing reproductive suicide, without benefit for another; such arbitrary suicide (a "load" on "adaptive" suicide) is viable only under a more restricted parameter space relative to the necessarily concomitant adaptive contingent suicide.

Influence de l'administration des preuves sur l'activité mentale menant à la formation du verdict au cours d'un procès pénal

Abstract : The role of order effects has been widely shown and discussed in areas such as memory and social impression formation. This work focuses in a first half on order effects influencing the verdict chosen at the end of a criminal trial. Contrary to impression formation but according to trial's characteristics, it has been hypothesised that a recency effect would influence the verdict's choice. Three groups of students (N = 576) received a mock trial resume with a specific order stemming from the combination of three witnesses, one expert and two ocular witnesses. Results show a recency effect, the last testimony provoking significantly more acquittals if discriminating, and more condemnations if incriminating. The second half of this work starts from Gestalt and sociopsychological researches presenting numerous insights into cognitive organization of perceptions and opinions. It has been postulated that a witness probative value will change according to the emitted verdict, an incriminating witness or expert possessing a higher probative value in a condemning verdict than in an innocenting one, on the other hand a discriminating witness or expert having a higher probative value in an acquittal than in a condemnation. Results using a seven points scale measuring witnesses' probative value confirm this hypothesis. Argumentations written by the subjects to explain their verdict and refering to the accusing expert also show a congruency effect as categories of arguments are identical in case of condemnation or acquittal, the only difference between both types of verdicts residing in the frequency of these categories following the judgement, higher use of incriminating arguments in case of guiltiness and higher use of discriminating ones if the accused is found innocent. Résumé : L'intervention des effets sériels a fait l'objet de nombreuses recherches dans le domaine de la mémoire et de la formation d'impression en psychologie sociale. Ce travail s'intéresse dans une première partie aux effets d'ordre pouvant influencer le choix du verdict à la fin d'un procès pénal. Contrairement aux résultats obtenus en matière de formation d'impression, mais conformément aux caractéristiques d'un procès, l'hypothèse de l'intervention d'un effet de récence a été formulée, affirmant que les derniers témoins influencent le plus le choix du verdict. Trois groupes d'étudiants (N = 576) ont lu le résumé d'un procès fictif présentant trois témoignages, deux témoins visuels à décharge et un expert à charge. Chaque groupe recevait un ordre spécifique de présentation des témoins de sorte que l'expert se trouvait en première, deuxième ou troisième position. Les résultats montrent un effet de récence, le dernier témoin provoquant davantage d'acquittements s'il est disculpant et davantage de condamnations s'il est inculpant. La seconde partie de ce travail émane des recherches effectuées dans le domaine de la théorie de la forme et de la psychologie sociale ayant un intérêt marqué pour l'organisation cognitive de nos perceptions et de nos opinions. L'hypothèse que nous avons posée souligne le lien entretenu entre l'évaluation de la force probante d'un témoin et le verdict émis : un témoignage discriminant possédera plus de poids en cas d'acquittement qu'en cas de condamnation, inversement un témoignage incriminant aura plus de poids en cas de condamnation qu'en cas d'acquittement. L'utilisation d'une échelle en sept points mesurant la force probante des deux types de témoins confirme cette hypothèse, l'estimation de la valeur accordée à un même témoin variant selon le type de verdict choisi. Les argumentations de chaque verdict ont également montré que les catégories d'arguments se référant à l'expert étaient identiques en cas de condamnation ou d'acquittement de l'inculpé, par contre les fréquences de ces catégories entretiennent un lien congruent avec le verdict, celles inculpantes étant majoritairement utilisées pour asseoir la culpabilité mais peu représentées en cas d'acquittement, inversement celles disculpantes apparaissant bien plus lorsqu'il s'agit d'innocenter l'inculpé que pour le condamner.

Influence of reconstruction parameters during filtered backprojection and ordered-subset expectation maximization in the measurement of the left-ventricular volumes and function during gated SPECT.

A crucial method for investigating patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) is the calculation of the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). It is, consequently, imperative to precisely estimate the value of LVEF--a process that can be done with myocardial perfusion scintigraphy. Therefore, the present study aimed to establish and compare the estimation performance of the quantitative parameters of the reconstruction methods filtered backprojection (FBP) and ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM). METHODS: A beating-heart phantom with known values of end-diastolic volume, end-systolic volume, and LVEF was used. Quantitative gated SPECT/quantitative perfusion SPECT software was used to obtain these quantitative parameters in a semiautomatic mode. The Butterworth filter was used in FBP, with the cutoff frequencies between 0.2 and 0.8 cycles per pixel combined with the orders of 5, 10, 15, and 20. Sixty-three reconstructions were performed using 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 16 OSEM subsets, combined with several iterations: 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16, 32, and 64. RESULTS: With FBP, the values of end-diastolic, end-systolic, and the stroke volumes rise as the cutoff frequency increases, whereas the value of LVEF diminishes. This same pattern is verified with the OSEM reconstruction. However, with OSEM there is a more precise estimation of the quantitative parameters, especially with the combinations 2 iterations × 10 subsets and 2 iterations × 12 subsets. CONCLUSION: The OSEM reconstruction presents better estimations of the quantitative parameters than does FBP. This study recommends the use of 2 iterations with 10 or 12 subsets for OSEM and a cutoff frequency of 0.5 cycles per pixel with the orders 5, 10, or 15 for FBP as the best estimations for the left ventricular volumes and ejection fraction quantification in myocardial perfusion scintigraphy.

Integrated Analysis of Molecular and Clinical Prognostic Factors in Stage II/III Colon Cancer.

Background The prognostic potential of individual clinical and molecular parameters in stage II/III colon cancer has been investigated, but a thorough multivariable assessment of their relative impact is missing. Methods Tumors from patients (N = 1404) in the PETACC3 adjuvant chemotherapy trial were examined for BRAF and KRAS mutations, microsatellite instability (MSI), chromosome 18q loss of heterozygosity (18qLOH), and SMAD4 expression. Their importance in predicting relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analyses, Cox regression models, and recursive partitioning trees. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results MSI-high status and SMAD4 focal loss of expression were identified as independent prognostic factors with better RFS (hazard ratio [HR] of recurrence = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.37 to 0.81, P = .003) and OS (HR of death = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.27 to 0.70, P = .001) for MSI-high status and worse RFS (HR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.19 to 1.81, P < .001) and OS (HR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.23 to 2.01, P < .001) for SMAD4 loss. 18qLOH did not have any prognostic value in RFS or OS. Recursive partitioning identified refinements of TNM into new clinically interesting prognostic subgroups. Notably, T3N1 tumors with MSI-high status and retained SMAD4 expression had outcomes similar to stage II disease. Conclusions Concomitant assessment of molecular and clinical markers in multivariable analysis is essential to confirm or refute their independent prognostic value. Including molecular markers with independent prognostic value might allow more accurate prediction of prognosis than TNM staging alone.