Change in woolgrower profits from adopting staple strength-enhancing management strategies

Wool tenderness is a significant problem in Australia, especially in areas where sheep graze under highly seasonal conditions. In this study, a profit function model is specified, estimated and simulated to assess the economic impact of staple strength-enhancing research on the profits of Australian woolgrowers. The model is based on a number of fundamental characteristics of the Australian wool industry and the staple-strength enhancing technology being assessed. The model consists of a system of demand and supply equations that are specified in terms of effective, rather than actual, prices. The interrelationships between the inputs and outputs are allowed for in the model in a manner that is consistent with theoretical restrictions. The adoption of the new feed management strategy results in a 4.4% increase in the expected profits of Australian wool producers in the short-run, and a 2.2% increase in expected profits in the long-run.

Efficiency effects of agricultural economics research in the United States

Allocations of research funds across programs are often made for efficiency reasons. Social science research is shown to have small, lagged but significant effects on U.S. agricultural efficiency when public agricultural R&D and extension are simultaneously taken into account. Farm management and marketing research variables are used to explain variations in estimates of allocative and technical efficiency using a Bayesian approach that incorporates stylized facts concerning lagged research impacts in a way that is less restrictive than popular polynomial distributed lags. Results are reported in terms of means and standard deviations of estimated probability distributions of parameters and long-run total multipliers. Extension is estimated to have a greater impact on both allocative and technical efficiency than either R&D or social science research.

Searching for convergence in phylogenetic Markov chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a methodology that is gaining widespread use in the phylogenetics community and is central to phylogenetic software packages such as MrBayes. An important issue for users of MCMC methods is how to select appropriate values for adjustable parameters such as the length of the Markov chain or chains, the sampling density, the proposal mechanism, and, if Metropolis-coupled MCMC is being used, the number of heated chains and their temperatures. Although some parameter settings have been examined in detail in the literature, others are frequently chosen with more regard to computational time or personal experience with other data sets. Such choices may lead to inadequate sampling of tree space or an inefficient use of computational resources. We performed a detailed study of convergence and mixing for 70 randomly selected, putatively orthologous protein sets with different sizes and taxonomic compositions. Replicated runs from multiple random starting points permit a more rigorous assessment of convergence, and we developed two novel statistics, delta and epsilon, for this purpose. Although likelihood values invariably stabilized quickly, adequate sampling of the posterior distribution of tree topologies took considerably longer. Our results suggest that multimodality is common for data sets with 30 or more taxa and that this results in slow convergence and mixing. However, we also found that the pragmatic approach of combining data from several short, replicated runs into a metachain to estimate bipartition posterior probabilities provided good approximations, and that such estimates were no worse in approximating a reference posterior distribution than those obtained using a single long run of the same length as the metachain. Precision appears to be best when heated Markov chains have low temperatures, whereas chains with high temperatures appear to sample trees with high posterior probabilities only rarely. [Bayesian phylogenetic inference; heating parameter; Markov chain Monte Carlo; replicated chains.]

Energy consumption, economic growth and prices: A reassessment using panel VECM for developed and developing countries

This paper reinvestigates the energy consumption-GDP growth nexus in a panel error correction model using data on 20 net energy importers and exporters from 1971 to 2002. Among the energy exporters, there was bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption in the developed countries in both the short and long run, while in the developing countries energy consumption stimulates growth only in the short run. The former result is also found for energy importers and the latter result exists only for the developed countries within this category. In addition, compared to the developing countries, the developed countries' elasticity response in terms of economic growth from an increase in energy consumption is larger although its income elasticity is lower and less than unitary. Lastly. the implications for energy policy calling for a more holistic approach are discussed. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Hierarchical Structure of the Firm: A Geometric Perspective

This paper incorporates hierarchical structure into the neoclassical theory of the firm. Firms are hierarchical in two respects: the organization of workers in production and the wage structure. The firm’s hierarchy is represented as the sector of a circle, where the radius represents the hierarchy’s height, the width of the sector represents the breadth of the hierarchy at a given height, and the angle of the sector represents span of control for any given supervisor. A perfectly competitive firm then chooses height and width, as well as capital inputs, in order to maximize profit. We analyze the short run and long run impact of changes in scale economies, input substitutability and input and output prices on the firm’s hierarchical structure. We find that the firm unambiguously becomes more hierarchical as the specialization of its workers increases or as its output price increases relative to input prices. The effect of changes in scale economies is contingent on the output price. The model also brings forth an analysis of wage inequality within the firm, which is found to be independent of technological considerations, and only depends on the firm’s wage schedule.

Pockets of flexibility in workflow specification

Workflow technology is currently being deployed in quite diverse domains. However, the element of change is present in some degree and form in almost all domains. A workflow implementation that does not support the process of change will not benefit the organization in the long run. Change can be manifested in different forms in workflow processes. In this paper, we first present a categorization of workflow change characteristics and divide workflow processes into dynamic, adaptive and flexible processes. We define flexibility as the ability of the workflow process to execute on the basis of a loosely, or partially specified model, where the full specification of the model is made at runtime, and may be unique to each instance. To provide a modeling framework that offers true flexibility, we need to consider the factors, which influence the paths of (unique) instances together with the process definition. We advocate an approach that aims at making the process of change part of the workflow process itself. We introduce the notion of an open instance that consists of a core process and several pockets of flexibility, and present a framework based on this notion, which makes use of special build activities that provide the functionality to integrate the process of defining a change, into the open workflow instance.

PERCEPÇÃO DE SUCESSO NA CARREIRA E RESILIÊNCIA: UM ESTUDO COM ADMINISTRADORES

Sucesso profissional está relacionado à satisfação do indivíduo com a sua carreira em longo prazo. Essa satisfação deriva de aspectos intrínsecos e extrínsecos, referentes a uma dimensão objetiva - aspectos mais visíveis do sucesso na carreira - que inclui: salários, progressão profissional, status e oportunidades de desenvolvimento de carreira, como promoção; e outra subjetiva, que se refere à interpretação pessoal do que seja sucesso, em especial na carreira: satisfação com o trabalho, orgulho, sentimentos de autorrealização, dentre outros. A percepção do sucesso com a carreira pode estar associada a características individuais como, por exemplo, a resiliência, que representa o processo dinâmico de adaptação positiva frente às adversidades. Na literatura, não foram localizados estudos que relacionem ambas as variáveis, isto é, sobre o quanto a resiliência pessoal pode contribuir para a percepção de sucesso na carreira. A fim de investigar essa influência, esta pesquisa tem como objetivo principal identificar se resiliência pessoal de administradores prediz sua percepção de sucesso na carreira. Participaram 137 administradores, formados em diversas instituições, sendo 56,1% do sexo feminino e 43,7% do sexo masculino, com idade média de 33 anos, divididos entre casados ou solteiros (44,5% para ambos). Os dados foram coletados por meio de um questionário sociodemográfico, baseado na Escala de Percepção de Sucesso na Carreira e da Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC). As respostas compuseram um banco eletrônico de dados e foram analisados por meio do Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Resultados de análises de regressão hierárquica revelaram que resiliência prediz 5,5% da percepção do sucesso na carreira objetiva e 9% da percepção de sucesso na carreira subjetiva. Ao acrescentar a interação entre idade e tempo de trabalho, o poder de predição de ambos os modelos, tanto para sucesso objetivo, quanto para o subjetivo, elevou-se substancialmente, chegando ao dobro. Resiliência contribui para que os participantes percebam sucesso na carreira em ambas as dimensões, objetiva e subjetiva, e a predição é potencializada pela interação entre idade e tempo de trabalho. Os achados deste estudo confirmaram a hipótese levantada. O estudo trouxe contribuições para a área, mas também foram reconhecidas limitações, em função das quais foi proposta uma agenda de pesquisa para estudos futuros.

Modelling foreign direct investment in China

This thesis consists of three empirical and one theoretical studies. While China has received an increasing amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) and become the second largest host country for FDI in recent years, the absence of comprehensive studies on FDI inflows into this country drives this research. In the first study, an econometric model is developed to analyse the economic, political, cultural and geographic determinants of both pledged and realised FDI in China. The results of this study suggest that China's relatively cheaper labour force, high degree of international integration with the outside world (represented by its exports and imports) and bilateral exchange rates are the important economic determinants of both pledged FDI and realised FDI in China. The second study analyses the regional distribution of both pledged and realised FDI within China. The econometric properties of the panel data set are examined using a standardised 't-bar' test. The empirical results indicate that provinces with higher level of international trade, lower wage rates, more R&D manpower, more preferential policies and closer ethnic links with overseas Chinese attract relatively more FDI. The third study constructs a dynamic equilibrium model to study the interactions among FDI, knowledge spillovers and long run economic growth in a developing country. The ideas of endogenous product cycles and trade-related international knowledge spillovers are modified and extended to FDI. The major conclusion is that, in the presence of FDI, economic growth is determined by the stock of human capital, the subjective discount rate and knowledge gap, while unskilled labour can not sustain growth. In the fourth study, the role of FDI in the growth process of the Chinese economy is investigated by using a panel of data for 27 provinces across China between 1986 and 1995. In addition to FDI, domestic R&D expenditure, international trade and human capital are added to the standard convergence regressions to control for different structural characteristics in each province. The empirical results support endogenous innovation growth theory in which regional per capita income can converge given technological diffusion, transfer and imitation.

Some further empirical evidence on the impact of oil price changes on petrol prices

This paper analyses the asymmetries in the response of petrol prices to oil price shocks. We show that previous work, based on the determination of asymmetric responses, can be improved upon by allowing for asymmetries in short term dynamics. The paper shows that a significant determinant of the response of petrol prices to oil price changes, is the extent to which petrol price can be seen to have departed from its long run equilibrium level.

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) international spillovers

As information and communications technology (ICT) involves both traditional capital and knowledge capital, potential spillovers through various mechanisms can occur. Having tried to confirm the existence of ICT spillovers across country borders as Park et al. (Inf. Syst. Res., vol. 18, pp. 86-102, 2007), we investigate the patterns and mechanisms of international ICT spillovers. We use panel data on 37 countries from 1996 to 2004. We find that developing countries could reap more benefits from ICT spillovers than developed countries. We also find that the higher the Internet penetration rate in recipient countries, the more international ICT spillovers there might exist. Our findings are important for policy decisions regarding national trade liberalization and economic integration. Developing economies that are more open to foreign trade may have an economic advantage and may develop knowledge-intensive activities, which will lead to economic development in the long run.

‘O convergence, where art thou?’ Regional growth and industrialization in Italy

This paper shows that the Italian economy has two long-run equilibria, which are due to the different level of industrialization between the centre-north and the south of the country. These equilibria converge until 1971 but diverge afterwards; the end of the convergence process coincides with the slowing down of Italy's industrialization policy in the South. In this paper we argue that to address this problem effectively, an economic policy completely different from that in place in needed. However, such a policy is unlikely to be implemented given the scarcity of resources and the short run nature of the political cycle.

Public capital and total factor productivity:new evidence from the Italian regions, 1970-98

This paper analyses the relationship between industrial total factor productivity and public capital across the 20 Italian administrative regions. It adds upon the existing literature in a number of ways: it analyses a longer period (1970-98); it allows for the role of human capital accumulation; it tests for the existence of a long-run relationship between total factor productivity and public capital (through previously suggested panel techniques) and for weak exogeneity of public capital; and it assesses the significance of public capital within a non-parametric set-up based on the Free Disposal Hull. The results confirm that public capital has a significant impact on the evolution of total factor productivity, particularly in the Southern regions. This impact is mainly ascribed to the core infrastructures (road and airports, harbours, railroads, water and electricity, telecommunications). Also, core infrastructures are weakly exogenous. © 2005 Regional Studies Association.

Where next for PSMs - a grass-roots revolution?

Over the last 30 years, the field of problem structuring methods (PSMs) has been pioneered by a handful of 'gurus'—the most visible of whom have contributed other viewpoints to this special issue. As this generation slowly retires, it is opportune to survey the field and their legacy. We focus on the progress the community has made up to 2000, as work that started afterwards is ongoing and its impact on the field will probably only become apparent in 5–10 years time. We believe that up to 2000, research into PSMs was stagnating. We believe that this was partly due to a lack of new researchers penetrating what we call the 'grass-roots community'—the community which takes an active role in developing the theory and application of problem structuring. Evidence for this stagnation (or lack of development) is that, in 2000, many PSMs still relied heavily on the same basic methods proposed by the originators nearly 30 years earlier—perhaps only supporting those methods with computer software as a sign of development. Furthermore, no new methods had been integrated into the literature which suggests that revolutionary development, at least by academics, has stalled. We are pleased to suggest that from papers in this double special issue on PSMs this trend seems over because new authors report new PSMs and extend existing PSMs in new directions. Despite these recent developments of the methods, it is important to examine why this apparent stagnation took place. In the following sections, we identify and elaborate a number of reasons for it. We also consider the trends, challenges and opportunities that the PSM community will continue to face. Our aim is to evaluate the pre-2000 PSM community to encourage its revolutionary development post-2006 and offer directions for the long term sustainability of the field.

Profitability of a sample of Portuguese bank branches and its decomposition into technical and allocative components

The efficiency literature, both using parametric and non-parametric methods, has been focusing mainly on cost efficiency analysis rather than on profit efficiency. In for-profit organisations, however, the measurement of profit efficiency and its decomposition into technical and allocative efficiency is particularly relevant. In this paper a newly developed method is used to measure profit efficiency and to identify the sources of any shortfall in profitability (technical and/or allocative inefficiency). The method is applied to a set of Portuguese bank branches first assuming long run and then a short run profit maximisation objective. In the long run most of the scope for profit improvement of bank branches is by becoming more allocatively efficient. In the short run most of profit gain can be realised through higher technical efficiency. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trade balance and real exchange rate:new evidence from Mauritius-UK trade

In this study we investigate whether there exists a relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance using bilateral data for the Mauritius/UK trade. We also investigate whether following depreciation or a devaluation the trade balance initially worsens due to contractual agreements and subsequently improves when new contracts for international trade are signed. Using a variety of econometric techniques we are able to establish that there exists a long-run relationship between the trade balance and the real exchange rate. The existence of such a relationship signifies that the authorities would be able to use the exchange rate to steer the trade balance. We also find following a depreciation or devaluation the trade balance initially worsens due to contractual agreements but the trade balance subsequently improves when new contracts are signed. This signifies that if the authorities want to devalue their currency to improve the trade balance, the desired effect does not occur immediately but it occurs with a lag, in this particular case after approximately a year.