Welfare characterization of monetary-applied models and three implications

This paper demonstrates that the applied monetary mo deIs - the Sidrauski-type models and the cash-in-advance models, augmented with a banking sector that supplies money substitutes services - imply trajectories which are P8,reto-Optimum restricted to a given path of the real quantity of money. As a consequence, three results follow: First, Bailey's formula to evaluate the wclfare cost of inflation is indeed accurate, if the long-run capital stock does not depend on the inflation rate and if the compensate demand is considered. Second, the relevant money demand concept for this issue - the impact of inflation on welfare - is the monetary base, Third, if the long-run capital stock depends on the inflation rate, this dependence has a second-order impact ou wclfare, and, conceptually, it is not a distortion from tite social point of vicw. These three implications moderatc some evaluations of the wclfare cost of the perfect predicted inflation.

Application of a SPH depth-integrated model to landslide run-out analysis

Hazard and risk assessment of landslides with potentially long run-out is becoming more and more important. Numerical tools exploiting different constitutive models, initial data and numerical solution techniques are important for making the expert’s assessment more objective, even though they cannot substitute for the expert’s understanding of the site-specific conditions and the involved processes. This paper presents a depth-integrated model accounting for pore water pressure dissipation and applications both to real events and problems for which analytical solutions exist. The main ingredients are: (i) The mathematical model, which includes pore pressure dissipation as an additional equation. This makes possible to model flowslide problems with a high mobility at the beginning, the landslide mass coming to rest once pore water pressures dissipate. (ii) The rheological models describing basal friction: Bingham, frictional, Voellmy and cohesive-frictional viscous models. (iii) We have implemented simple erosion laws, providing a comparison between the approaches of Egashira, Hungr and Blanc. (iv) We propose a Lagrangian SPH model to discretize the equations, including pore water pressure information associated to the moving SPH nodes

Household sector money demand for the UK

We test for the existence of a long-run money demand relationship for the UK involving household-sector Divisia and simple sum monetary indexes for the period from 1977 to 2008. We construct our Divisia index using non-break-adjusted levels and break-adjusted flows following the Bank of England. We test for cointegration between the real Divisia and simple sum indexes, their corresponding opportunity cost measures, real income and real share prices. Our results support the existence of a long-run money demand relationship for both the Divisia and simple sum indexes.

Econometrics of yield spreads in the money market:a note

The literature on bond markets and interest rates has focused largely on the term structure of interest rates, specifically, on the so-called expectations hypothesis. At the same time, little is known about the nature of the spread of the interest rates in the money market beyond the fact that such spreads are generally unstable. However, with the evolution of complex financial instruments, it has become imperative to identify the time series process that can help one accurately forecast such spreads into the future. This article explores the nature of the time series process underlying the spread between three-month and one-year US rates, and concludes that the movements in this spread over time is best captured by a GARCH(1,1) process. It also suggests the use of a relatively long term measure of interest rate volatility as an explanatory variable. This exercise has gained added importance in view of the revelation that GARCH based estimates of option prices consistently outperform the corresponding estimates based on the stylized Black-Scholes algorithm.

The side effects of quantitative easing:evidence from the UK bond market

We examine the returns to UK government bonds before, during and between the phases of quantitative easing to identify the side effects for the market itself. We show that the onset of QE led to a sustained reduction in the costs of trading and removed some return regularities. However, controlling for a wide range of market activity, including issuance and QE announcements, we find evidence that investors could have earned excess returns after costs by trading in response to the purchase auction calendar. Drawing on economic theory, we explore the implications of these findings for both the efficiency of the market and the costs of government debt management in both the short and long run.

Exchange rate overvaluation under hyperinflation: The case of Peru

This dissertation examines the behavior of the exchange rate under two different scenarios. The first one is characterized by, relatively, low inflation or a situation where prices adjust sluggishly. The second is a high inflation economy where prices respond very rapidly even to unanticipated shocks. In the first one, following a monetary expansion, the exchange rate overshoots, i.e. the nominal exchange rate depreciates at a faster pace than the price level. Under high levels of inflation, prices change faster than the exchange rate so the exchange rate undershoots its long run equilibrium value.^ The standard work in this area, Dornbusch (1976), explains the overshooting process in the context of perfect capital mobility and sluggish adjustment in the goods market. A monetary expansion will make the exchange rate increase beyond its long run equilibrium value. This dissertation expands on Dornbusch's model and provides an analysis of the exchange rate under conditions of currency substitution and price flexibility, characteristics of the Peruvian economy during the hyper inflation process that took place at the end of the 1980's. The results of the modified Dornbusch model reveal that, given a monetary expansion, the change in the price level will be larger than the change in the exchange rate if prices react more than proportionally to the monetary shock.^ We will expect this over-reaction in circumstances of high inflation when the velocity of money is increasing very rapidly. Increasing velocity of money, gives rise to a higher relative price variability which in turn contributes to the appearance of new financial (and also non-financial) instruments that report a higher return than the exchange rate, causing people to switch their demand for foreign exchange to this new assets. In the context of currency substitution, economic agents hoard and use foreign exchange as a store of value. The big decline in output originated by hyper inflation induces people to sell this hoarded money to finance current expenses, increasing the supply of foreign exchange in the market. Both, the decrease in demand and the increase in supply reduce the price of foreign exchange i.e. the real exchange rate. The findings mentioned above are tested using Peruvian data for the period January 1985-July 1990, the results of the econometric estimation confirm our findings in the theoretical model. ^

Long-term Follow-up Of Patients With 46,xy Partial Gonadal Dysgenesis Reared As Males.

Background/Aims. Studies on 46,XY partial gonadal dysgenesis (PGD) have focused on molecular, gonadal, genital, and hormone features; little is known about follow-up. Our aim was to analyze long-term outcomes of PGD. Methods. Retrospective longitudinal study conducted at a reference service in Brazil. Ten patients were first evaluated in the 1990s and followed up until the 2010s; follow-up ranged from 13.5 to 19.7 years. All were reared as males and had at least one scrotal testis; two bore NR5A1 mutations. Main outcomes were: associated conditions, pubertal development, and growth. Results. All patients had normal motor development but three presented cognitive impairment; five had various associated conditions. At the end of the prepubertal period, FSH was high or high-normal in 3/6 patients; LH was normal in all. At the last evaluation, FSH was high or high-normal in 8/10; LH was high or high-normal in 5/10; testosterone was decreased in one. Final height in nine cases ranged from -1.57 to 0.80 SDS. All had spontaneous puberty; only one needed androgen therapy. Conclusions. There is good prognosis for growth and spontaneous pubertal development but not for fertility. Though additional studies are required, screening for learning disabilities is advisable.

AVERAGE CONTINUOUS CONTROL OF PIECEWISE DETERMINISTIC MARKOV PROCESSES

This paper deals with the long run average continuous control problem of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) taking values in a general Borel space and with compact action space depending on the state variable. The control variable acts on the jump rate and transition measure of the PDMP, and the running and boundary costs are assumed to be positive but not necessarily bounded. Our first main result is to obtain an optimality equation for the long run average cost in terms of a discrete-time optimality equation related to the embedded Markov chain given by the postjump location of the PDMP. Our second main result guarantees the existence of a feedback measurable selector for the discrete-time optimality equation by establishing a connection between this equation and an integro-differential equation. Our final main result is to obtain some sufficient conditions for the existence of a solution for a discrete-time optimality inequality and an ordinary optimal feedback control for the long run average cost using the so-called vanishing discount approach. Two examples are presented illustrating the possible applications of the results developed in the paper.

Experimental study of a Tollmien-Schlichting wave interacting with a shallow 3D roughness element

The paper is devoted to an experimental study of the effect of a shallow 3D roughness element on the evolution of a 2D Tollmien-Schlichting wave in a Blasius boundary layer. The experiments were carried out under controlled disturbance conditions on an airfoil section which could provide a long run with zero pressure gradient flow. A pneumatically driven slit source was used to introduce the Tollmien-Schilichting wave upstream of the lower branch of the neutral stability curve. A few wavelengths downstream, the T-S wave interacts with a cylindrical roughness element. The height of the roughness was slowly oscillating in time, which allows a continuous measurement of the T-S wave response downstream the roughness. The oscillation frequency was approximately 1500 times lower than the frequency of the studied Tollmien-Schlichting wave and therefore, behaved as a steady roughness with respect to the T-S wave. Hot wire anemometry was used to measure wall normal profiles and spanwise scans close to the maximum of the eigenfunction of the T-S wave. The oscillation of the roughness and the synchronization of all-equipments permitted the use of ensemble average techniques. Two different amplitudes of T-S waves with a non-dimensional frequency of F120E-06 were studied. They show a strong amplification of the disturbances in a small spanwise wave number range. The analysis of the wall normal T-S profiles suggests the growth of oblique modes.

The Policy Iteration Algorithm for Average Continuous Control of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes

The main goal of this paper is to apply the so-called policy iteration algorithm (PIA) for the long run average continuous control problem of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP`s) taking values in a general Borel space and with compact action space depending on the state variable. In order to do that we first derive some important properties for a pseudo-Poisson equation associated to the problem. In the sequence it is shown that the convergence of the PIA to a solution satisfying the optimality equation holds under some classical hypotheses and that this optimal solution yields to an optimal control strategy for the average control problem for the continuous-time PDMP in a feedback form.

THE VANISHING DISCOUNT APPROACH FOR THE AVERAGE CONTINUOUS CONTROL OF PIECEWISE DETERMINISTIC MARKOV PROCESSES

This work is concerned with the existence of an optimal control strategy for the long-run average continuous control problem of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). In Costa and Dufour (2008), sufficient conditions were derived to ensure the existence of an optimal control by using the vanishing discount approach. These conditions were mainly expressed in terms of the relative difference of the alpha-discount value functions. The main goal of this paper is to derive tractable conditions directly related to the primitive data of the PDMP to ensure the existence of an optimal control. The present work can be seen as a continuation of the results derived in Costa and Dufour (2008). Our main assumptions are written in terms of some integro-differential inequalities related to the so-called expected growth condition, and geometric convergence of the post-jump location kernel associated to the PDMP. An example based on the capacity expansion problem is presented, illustrating the possible applications of the results developed in the paper.

Prospects for control of African trypanosomiasis by tsetse vector manipulation

The extensive antigenic variation phenomena African trypanosomes display in their mammalian host have hampered efforts to develop effective vaccines against trypanosomiasis. Human disease management aims largely to treat infected hosts by chemotherapy, whereas control of animal diseases relies on reducing tsetse populations as well as on drug therapy. The control strategies for animal diseases are carried out and financed by livestock owners, who have an obvious economic incentive. Sustaining largely insecticide-based control at a local level and relying on drugs for treatment of infected hosts for a disease for which there is no evidence of acquired immunity could prove extremely costly in the long run. It is more likely that a combination of several methods in an integrated, phased and area-wide approach would be more effective in controlling these diseases and subsequently improving agricultural output. New approaches that are environmentally acceptable, efficacious and affordable are clearly desirable for control of various medically and agriculturally important insects including tsetse. Here, Serap Aksoy and colleagues discuss molecular genetic approaches to modulate tsetse vector competence.

Preventing recurrent events long term after coronary artery bypass graft: Suboptimal use of medications in a population study

Background There are few population-based data on long-term management of patients after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), despite the high risk for future major vascular events among this group. We assessed the prevalence and correlates of pharmacotherapy for prevention of new cardiac events in a large population-based series. Methods A postal survey was conducted of 2500 randomly selected survivors from a state population of patients 6 to 20 years after first CABG. Results Response was 82% (n = 2061). Use of antiplatelet agents (80%) and statins (64%) declined as age increased. Other independent predictors of antiplatelet use included statin use (odds ratio [OR] 1.6, 95% CI 1.26-2.05) and recurrent angina (OR 1.6, CI 1.17-2.06). Current smokers were less likely to use aspirin (OR 0.59, CI 0.4-0.89). Statin use was associated with reported high cholesterol (OR 24.4, CI 8.4-32.4), management by a cardiologist (OR 2.3, CI 1.8-3.0), and the use of calcium channel-blockers. Patients reporting hypertension or heart failure, in addition to high cholesterol, were less likely to use statins. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors were the most commonly prescribed agents for management of hypertension (59%) and were more frequently used among patients with diabetes and those with symptoms of heart failure. Overall 42% of patients were on angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and 36% on beta-blockers. Conclusions Gaps exist in the use of-recommended medications after CABG. Lower anti-platelet and statin use was associated with older age, freedom from angina, comorbid heart failure or hypertension, and not regularly visiting a cardiologist. Patients who continue to smoke might be less likely to adhere to prescribed medications.

Use of an Inflatable Silicone Balloon Improves the Success Rate of Bladder Autoaugmentation at Long-Term Followup

Purpose: Most groups have reported disappointing results with autoaugmentation or detrusor myectomy for low capacity/compliance neuropathic bladders. Failure may be due to an ischemic diverticulum or mucosal shrinkage. We investigated whether a Silimed (R) silicone balloon placed in the bladder after autoaugmentation could prevent these problems, improving surgical results. Materials and Methods: We compared the results of standard bladder autoaugmentation in 12 children (group 1) with those in 10 (group 2) who underwent the same surgery using a bladder conformer. The conformer was a silicone balloon filled with saline that remained in the bladder for 2 weeks. All patients had a neuropathic bladder with poor capacity and compliance, resulting in urinary leakage between catheterizations. Preoperative and postoperative evaluation included a voiding diary, ultrasound, voiding cystourethrogram and urodynamics. Results: In group 1 only 1 patient became dry, 4 had little improvement in continence, 4 remained unchanged and 3 became worse. In group 2, 6 patients (60%) become continent without medication, 2 (20%) become continent with oxybutynin and 2 remained unchanged. Bladder capacity and compliance did not change significantly in group 1. However, in group 2 capacity changed from a mean of 140 to 240 ml and mean +/- SD compliance increased from 15.6 +/- 16.8 to 34.3 +/- 22.8 ml/cm H(2)O (p = 0.02). Conclusions: The inflatable balloon improved our long-term results of bladder auto-augmentation. A larger series may be necessary to confirm procedure efficacy and safety.

Catheter ablation of severe neurally meditated reflex (neurocardiogenic or vasovagal) syncope: cardioneuroablation long-term results

Aims Neurally meditated reflex or neurocardiogenic or vasovagal syncope (NMS) is usually mediated by a massive vagal reflex. This study reports the long-term outcome of NMS therapy based on endocardial radiofrequency (RF) catheter ablation of the cardiac vagal nervous system aiming permanent attenuation or elimination of the cardioinhibitory reflex (cardioneuroablation). Methods and results A total of 43 patients (18F/25M, 32.9+/-15 years) without apparent cardiopathy (left ventricular ejection fraction=68.6+/-5%) were included. All had recurrent NMS (4.7+/-2 syncope/patient) with important cardioinhibition (pauses=13.5+/-13 s) at head-up tilt test (HUT), normal electrocardiogram (ECG), and normal atropine test (AT). The patients underwent atrial endocardial RF ablation using spectral mapping to track the neurocardiac interface (AF Nest Mapping). The follow-up (FU) consisted of clinical evaluation, ECG (1 month/every 6 months/or symptoms), Holter (every 6 months/or symptoms), HUT (>= 4 months/or symptoms), and AT (end of ablation and >= 6 months). A total of 44 ablations (48+/-9 points/patient) were performed. Merely three cases of spontaneous syncope occurred in 45.1+/-22 months (two vasodepressor, one undefined). Only four partial cardioinhibitory responses occurred in post-ablation HUT without pauses or asystole (sinus bradycardia). Long-term AT (21.7+/-11 months post) was negative in 33 (76.7%, P<0.01), partially positive in 7(16.3%), and normal in three patients only (6.9%) reflecting long-term vagal denervation (AT-Delta% HR pre 79.4% x 23.2% post). The post-ablation stress test and Holter showed no abnormalities. No major complications occurred. Conclusion Endocardial RF catheter ablation of severe neurally meditated reflex syncope prevented pacemaker implantation and showed excellent long-term results in well selected patients. Despite no action in vasodepression it seems to cause enough long-term vagal reflex attenuation, eliminating the cardioinhibition, and keeping most patients asymptomatic. Indication was based on clinical symptoms, reproduction of severe cardioinhibitory syncope, and normal atropine response.