Skill-biased technological change and the business cycle

Over the past two decades, technological progress in the United States hasbeen biased towards skilled labor. What does this imply for business cycles?We construct a quarterly skill premium from the CPS and use it to identifyskill-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long-run restrictions. Hours fallin response to skill-biased technology shocks, indicating that at least part of thetechnology-induced fall in total hours is due to a compositional shift in labordemand. Skill-biased technology shocks have no effect on the relative price ofinvestment, suggesting that capital and skill are not complementary in aggregateproduction.

Long-run selection and the work ethic

That individuals contribute in social dilemma interactions even when contributing is costly is a well-established observation in the experimental literature. Since a contributor is always strictly worse off than a non-contributor the question is raised if an intrinsic motivation to contribute can survive in an evolutionary setting. Using recent results on deterministic approximation of stochastic evolutionary dynamics we give conditions for equilibria with a positive number of contributors to be selected in the long run.

Long term debt with hidden borrowing

We consider borrowers with the opportunity to raise funds from a competitive baking sector,that shares information about borrowers, and an alternative hidden lender. We highlight thatthe presence of the hidden lender restricts the contracts that can be obtained from the banking sector and that in equilibrium some borrowers obtain funds from both the banking sector and the (inefficient) hidden lender simultaneously. We further show that as the inefficiency of the hidden lender increases, total welfare decreases. By extending the model to examine a partially hidden lender, we further highlight the key role of information.

Business cycles, unemployment insurance and the calibration of matching models

This paper theoretically and empirically documents a puzzle that arises when an RBC economy with a job matching function is used to model unemployment. The standard model can generate sufficiently large cyclical fluctuations in unemployment, or a sufficiently small response of unemployment to labor market policies, but it cannot do both. Variable search and separation, finite UI benefit duration, efficiency wages, and capital all fail to resolve this puzzle. However, either sticky wages or match-specific productivity shocks can improve the model's performance by making the firm's flow of surplus more procyclical, which makes hiring more procyclical too.

Bilateral Uveal Pigmented Alterations With Remarkable Evolution: Long Term Follow-Up in a Case of Possible Bilateral Diffuse Uveal Melanocytic Proliferation

Purpose: to describe a case of probable bilateral diffuse uveal melanocytic proliferation (BDUMP) with scleral involvement, free from systemic malignancies and cataract. Methods: fifty months of follow up with recurrent complete ophthalmological examinations, including fundus photography, fluorescein/indocyanine green angiography (FA) and optical coherence tomography (OCT). Investigations also included an electroretinography (ERG) and histological examination of scleral biopsy. Extraocular malignancies were repeatedly searched. Results: the patient was a 61 year-old Italian man with chronic hepatitis type C. At first visit his best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was 20/32 in OS and 20/25 in OD. Funduscopy showed multiple patch-shaped pigmented alterations involving macular region and mid retinal periphery. FA showed corresponding areas of late-phase hyperfluorescent pinpoints (figure 1a, OS) and intemediate-phase hypocyanescence (figure 1b, OS), with subtle serous neurosensory retinal detachment confirmed by OCT. Photopic and scotopic ERG tested normal. Systemic prednisone was administered for one month without any improvement. After ten months round pigmentary lesions appeared also in superior scleral surface of both eyes. Biopsy allowed to disclose slightly pigmented spindle cells. BCVA worsened for further 10 months, with enlargement of FA alteration areas but lenses still clear. After 30 months spontaneous coalescence and atrophy of retinal lesions started, paralleled by progressive visual recovery. At the end of our follow up BCVA was 20/25 in OU while scleral pigmentary lesions remained unchanged. Conclusions: we report the case of a patient with main features of BDUMP and some unusual findings. Although not all classical diagnostic criteria were fulfilled, the presence of scleral pigmented lesions and spontaneous visual recovery may enlarge clinical spectrum of the disease.

Concomitant Cisplatin and Hyperfractionated Radiotherapy in Locally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer: Ten-year Follow-up of a Randomized Phase III Trial (SAKK 10/94)

Purpose/Objective(s): To analyze the long-term outcome of treatment with concomitant cisplatin and hyperfractionated radiotherapy in locally advanced head and neck cancer compared with hyperfractionated radiotherapy alone.Materials/Methods: From July 1994 to July 2000 a total of 224 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck were randomized to either hyperfractionated radiotherapy (median dose 74.4 Gy; 1.2 Gy twice daily) or the same radiotherapy combined with two cycles of concomitant cisplatin (20mg/m2 for 5 consecutive days of weeks 1 and 5). The primary endpoint was time to any treatment failure; secondary endpoints were locoregional failure, metastatic failure, overall survival, and late toxicity assessed according to RTOG criteria. The trial was registered at the National Institutes of Health (www.clinicaltrials.gov; identifier number: NCT00002654).Results: Median follow-up was 9.5 years (range, 0.1 - 15.4 years). Median time to any treatment failure was not significantly different between treatment arms (p = 0.19). Locoregional control (p\0.05), distant metastasis-free survival (p = 0.02) and cancer specific survival (p = 0.03) were significantly improved in the combined treatment arm, with no difference in late toxicity between treatment arms. However, overall survival was not significantly different (p = 0.19). Conclusions: After long-term follow-up combined treatment with cisplatin and hyperfractionated, radiotherapy maintained an improved locoregional control, distant metastasis-free survival, and cancer specific survival as compared to hyperfractionated radiotherapy alone with no difference in late toxicity.Author Disclosure: P. Ghadjar, None; M. Simcock, None; G. Studer, None; A.S. Allal, None; M. Ozsahin, None; J. Bernier, None; M. To¨ pfer, None; F. Zimmermann, None; C. Glanzmann, None; D.M. Aebersold, None.

Serum procalcitonin as a marker of post-cardiac arrest syndrome and long-term neurological recovery, but not of early-onset infections, in comatose post-anoxic patients treated with therapeutic hypothermia.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship of early serum procalcitonin (PCT) levels with the severity of post-cardiac arrest syndrome (PCAS), long-term neurological recovery and the risk of early-onset infections in patients with coma after cardiac arrest (CA) treated with therapeutic hypothermia (TH). METHODS: A prospective cohort of adult comatose CA patients treated with TH (33°C, for 24h) admitted to the medical/surgical intensive care unit, Lausanne University Hospital, was studied. Serum PCT was measured early after CA, at two time-points (days 1 and 2). The SOFA score was used to quantify the severity of PCAS. Diagnosis of early-onset infections (within the first 7 days of ICU stay) was made after review of clinical, radiological and microbiological data. Neurological recovery at 3 months was assessed with Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC), and was dichotomized as favorable (CPC 1-2) vs. unfavorable (CPC 3-5). RESULTS: From December 2009 to April 2012, 100 patients (median age 64 [interquartile range 55-73] years, median time from collapse to ROSC 20 [11-30]min) were studied. Peak PCT correlated with SOFA score at day 1 (Spearman's R=0.44, p<0.0001) and was associated with neurological recovery at 3 months (peak PCT 1.08 [0.35-4.45]ng/ml in patients with CPC 1-2 vs. 3.07 [0.89-9.99] ng/ml in those with CPC 3-5, p=0.01). Peak PCT did not differ significantly between patients with early-onset vs. no infections (2.14 [0.49-6.74] vs. 1.53 [0.46-5.38]ng/ml, p=0.49). CONCLUSIONS: Early elevations of serum PCT levels correlate with the severity of PCAS and are associated with worse neurological recovery after CA and TH. In contrast, elevated serum PCT did not correlate with early-onset infections in this setting.

Credit constraints, firms' precautionary investment and the business cycle

This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of firms' investment composition choices in the presence of credit constraints. Following a negative andpersistent aggregate productivity shock, firms shift into short-term investments because they produce more pledgeable output and because they help alleviate futureborrowing constraints. This produces a short-run dampening of the effects of theshock, at the expense of lower long-term investment and future output, relativeto an economy with no credit market imperfections. The effects are exacerbatedby a steepening of the term structure of interest rates that further encourages ashift towards short-term investments in the short-run. Small temporary shocks tothe severity of financing frictions generate large and long-lasting effects on outputthrough their impact on the composition of investment. A positive financial shockproduces much stronger effects than an identical negative shock, while the responsesto positive and negative shocks to aggregate productivity are roughly symmetric.Finally, the paper introduces a novel explanation for the countercyclicality of financing constraints of firms.

Lobbying, innovation and protectionist cycles

This paper explains why trade liberalizations occur in developing countries,and why they are often reversed. It does so by focusing on the use oflobbying for protection by import competing firms as a means to postponecostly product quality upgrades to keep up with foreign competitors. Giventhe availability of a political market for import tariffs, domestic firmswill lobby for a sequence of tariffs that insulate domestic profits from awidening quality gap, thereby allowing adjustment to be postponed. But asthe contributions required by the government grow with the size of thequality gap, it will be optimal to adjust quality and to decrease thelobbying effort at some time, leading to liberalization and technologicalcatch-up. But then the equilibrium tariff will again be small and "cheap",and it will pay to start lobbying anew, until the next quality adjustment.Therefore, cycles in protection will occur as a result of the use oflobbying as a substitute for innovation. The model thus sheds new light onthe impact of the costs of protection on the effectiveness of the lobbyingeffort over time, and on their implications for the timing and the timehorizon of trade reforms in developing countries.

Endogenous business cycles and stabilization policies

The paper reports results on the effects of stylized stabilization policies on endogenously created fluctuations. A simple monetary model with intertemporally optimizing agents is considered. Fluctuations in output may occur due to fluctuations in labor supply which are again caused by volatile expectations which are ``self fulfilling'', i.e. correct given the model. It turns out that stabilization policies that are sufficiently countercyclical in the sense that government spending (on transfers or demand) depends sufficiently strongly negatively on GNP-increases can stabilize the economy at a monetary steadystate for an arbitrarily low degree of distortion of that steady state. Such stabilization has unambiguously good welfare effects and can be achieved without features such as positive lump sum taxation or negative income taxation as part of the stabilization policy.

Comparative advantage and the cross-section of business cycles

Business cycles are both less volatile and more synchronized with the world cycle in rich countries than in poor ones. We develop two alternative explanations based on the idea that comparative advantage causes rich countries to specialize in industries that use new technologies operated by skilled workers, while poor countries specialize in industries that use traditional technologies operated by unskilled workers. Since new technologies are difficult to imitate, the industries of rich countries enjoy more market power and face more inelastic product demands than those of poor countries. Since skilled workers are less likely to exit employment as a result of changes in economic conditions, industries in rich countries face more inelastic labour supplies than those of poor countries. We show that either asymmetry in industry characteristics can generate cross-country differences in business cycles that resemble those we observe in the data.

Long-term expansion of transplantable human fetal liver hematopoietic stem cells

Hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs), with their dual ability for self-renewal and multilineage differentiation, constitute an essential component of hematopoietic transplantations. Human fetal liver (FL) represents a promising alternative HSC source, and we previously reported simple culture conditions allowing long-term expansion of FL hematopoietic progenitors. In the present study, we used the nonobese diabetic/severe combined immunodeficiency (NOD/SCID) mouse xenotransplantation assay to confirm that human FL is rich in NOD/SCID-repopulating cells (SRCs) and to show that these culture conditions repeatedly maintained short- and long-term SRCs from various FL samples for at least 28 days. Quantitative limited dilution analysis in NOD/SCID mice demonstrated for the first time that a 10- to over a 100-fold net expansion of FL SRCs could be achieved after 28 days of culture. The efficiency of this culture system may lead to an increase in the use of FL as a source of HSCs for transplantation in adult patients, as previously demonstrated with umbilical cord blood under different culture conditions.

Long Term Recovery Planning Task Force Report, August 2008

Eighty-five of 99 Iowa counties were declared Presidential Disaster Areas for Public Assistance and/orIndividual Assistance as a result of the tornadoes, storms, and floods over the incident period May 25 through August 13, 2008. Response dominated the state’s attention for weeks, with a transition to recovery as the local situations warranted. The widespread damage and severity of the impact on Iowans and their communities required a statewide effort to continue moving forward despite being surrounded by adversity. By all accounts, it will require years for the state to recover from these disasters. With an eye toward the future, recovery is underway across Iowa. As part of the Rebuild Iowa efforts, the Long Term Recovery Planning Task Force was charged with responsibilities somewhat different from other topical Task Force assignments. Rather than assess damage and report on how the state might address immediate needs, the Long Term Recovery Planning Task Force is directed to discuss and discern the best approach to the lengthy recovery process. Certainly, the Governor and Lieutenant Governor expect the task to be difficult; when planning around so many critical issues and overwhelming needs, it is challenging to think to the future, rather than to rise to the current day’s needs.

Long run relationships and price rigidity

I study a repeated buyer-seller relationship for the exchange of a givengood. Asymmetric information over the buyer's reservation price, which issubject to random shocks, may lead the seller to use a rigid pricing policydespite the possibility of making higher profits through price discriminationacross the different satates of the buyer's reservation price. The existence of a flexible price subgame perfect equilibrium is shown for the buyerssufficiently locked-in. When the seller faces a population of buyers whose degree of involvmentin the relatioship is unknown, the flexible price equilibrium is notnecessarily optimal. Thus tipically the seller will prefer to use therigid price strategy. A learning process allowing the seller to screenthe population of buyers is derived abd the existence of a switching pointbetween the two regimes (i.e. price rigidity and price felxibility) isshown.

Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe

We study the effects that the Maastricht treaty, the creation of the ECB, andthe Euro changeover had on the dynamics of European business cycles using a panelVAR and data from ten European countries - seven from the Euro area and threeoutside of it. There are changes in the features of European business cycles and in thetransmission of shocks. They precede the three events of interest and are more linkedto a general process of European convergence and synchronization.