Local models for exploratory analysis of hydrological extremes

Trend analysis is widely used for detecting changes in hydrological data. Parametric methods for this employ pre-specified models and associated tests to assess significance, whereas non-parametric methods generally apply rank tests to the data. Neither approach is suitable for exploratory analysis, because parametric models impose a particular, perhaps unsuitable, form of trend, while testing may confirm that trend is present but does not describe its form. This paper describes semi-parametric approaches to trend analysis using local likelihood fitting of annual maximum and partial duration series and illustrates their application to the exploratory analysis of changes in extremes in sea level and river flow data. Bootstrap methods are used to quantify the variability of estimates.

Evaluation of distortions in laser welded shipbuilding parts using local-global finite element approach

In recognition of the differences of scale between the welding pool and the heat affected zone along the welding line on one hand, and the overall size of the components being welded on the other, a local-global finite element approach was developed for the evaluation of distortions in laser welded shipbuilding parts. The approach involves the tandem use of a 'local' and a 'global' step. The local step involves a three-dimensional finite element model for the simulation of the laser welding process using the Sysweld finite element code, which takes into account thermal, metallurgical, and mechanical aspects. The simulation of the laser welding process was performed using a non-linear heat transfer analysis, based on a keyhole formation model, and a coupled transient thermomechanical analysis, which takes into account metallurgical transformations using the temperature dependent material properties and the continuous cooling transformation diagram. The size and shape of the keyhole used in the local finite element analysis was evaluated using a keyhole formation model and the Physica finite volume code. The global step involves the transfer of residual plastic strains and the stiffness of the weld obtained from the local model to the global analysis, which then provides the predicted distortions for the whole part. This newly developed methodology was applied to the evaluation of global distortions due to laser welding of stiffeners on a shipbuilding part. The approach has been proved reliable in comparison with experiments and of practical industrial use in terms of computing time and storage.

Predicting toxic gas concentrations resulting from enclosure fires using local equivalence ratio concept linked to fire field models

A practical CFD method is presented in this study to predict the generation of toxic gases in enclosure fires. The model makes use of local combustion conditions to determine the yield of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, hydrocarbon, soot and oxygen. The local conditions used in the determination of these species are the local equivalence ratio (LER) and the local temperature. The heat released from combustion is calculated using the volumetric heat source model or the eddy dissipation model (EDM). The model is then used to simulate a range of reduced-scale and full-scale fire experiments. The model predictions for most of the predicted species are then shown to be in good agreement with the test results

Property development: Appraisal and finance

The book provides an overview to the context of property development so that academics, students and professionals can examine the stages of development in the process - from initial consideration, to site finding, general appraisal, valuation, funding, construction and marketing, with a focus on two key areas of the process: appraisal and finance. The Second Edition reflects the developing research interests of the authors by putting property development and appraisal in a wider economic environment and the appraisal process was treated in a more holistic manner. Secondly, more case studies were included and the chapters framed with clear objectives key terms and summaries. Thirdly, this edition examined in more detail the property development and appraisal process in relation to sustainability and other key issues such as climate change, the changing financial environment, planning design and global influences. Research on appraisal techniques is incorporated in chapters 3-5. Research on property finance based on the original Property Lending Surveys carried out by the author and incorporated in other texts (Property Finance, 1994, 2003) is included in chapters 6-8. Research on property companies and their capital structures in included in chapter 8. Analysis of the relationship between sustainability and design is included in chapter 9. This is a key text in the area of property development, sales of the First Edition and Second Edition have been in the thousands globally to academics, students and practitioners.

Local examination of skin diffusion using FTIR spectroscopic imaging and multivariate target factor analysis

In the context of trans-dermal drug delivery it is very important to have mechanistic insight into the barrier function of the skin's stratum corneum and the diffusion mechanisms of topically applied drugs. Currently spectroscopic imaging techniques are evolving which enable a spatial examination of various types of samples in a dynamic way. ATR-FTIR imaging opens up the possibility to monitor spatial diffusion profiles across the stratum corneum of a skin sample. Multivariate data analyses methods based on factor analysis are able to provide insight into the large amount of spectroscopically complex and highly overlapping signals generated. Multivariate target factor analysis was used for spectral resolution and local diffusion profiles with time through stratum corneum. A model drug, 4-cyanophenol in polyethylene glycol 600 and water was studied. Results indicate that the average diffusion profiles between spatially different locations show similar profiles despite the heterogeneous nature of the biological sample and the challenging experimental set-up.

Putting down routes: an examination of local government cultural policy shaping the development of heritage trails

This paper explores the significance of trails within local government cultural strategies by presenting the results of an audit of 1000 trails, content analysis of local cultural strategies and a series of interviews with local government cultural officers. It highlights the growing sophistication of trails as flexible and multi-faceted products promising an array of social, environmental, cultural and economic benefits. However, key issues emerge as challenges for local government cultural officers. These include the need for a realistic assessment of the relative importance of competing rationales, the design of methodologies to enable evidence-based policy making and more effective engagement with commercial organisations.

Sustainability and local tourism branding in England's South Downs

This paper reports on a stakeholder consultation exercise that examined the tourism industry's perception of developing a local tourism branding scheme within the South Downs' protected areas in south-east England. The research shows that such schemes could offer potential benefits that are recognisable by the tourism industry, while helping to meet the statutory aims of the protected area. The paper records the perceptions of small tourism businesses, their fears, awareness of tourism impacts, perceptions of sustainable tourism and of local branding, and key criteria connected to the future organisation of a local tourism branding scheme. The conclusion lists the recommendations for the implementation of a local branding scheme, including grassroots stakeholder consultation that encourages ownership and participation, institutional frameworks that support capacity-building and the importance of developing core values within a local brand.

Finance for water and sanitation as a public service

Drawing on empirical evidence gathered through the PSIRU database, this contribution aims at addressing the potential of public finance to enhance the provision of water supply and sanitation as a public service. It highlights the problems associated with (and the disappointing results obtained from) resort to Private Sector Participation and private finance, both historically and in the last 15-20 years, in developed and developing countries. It also addresses the advantages of using public finance as a more cost-effective and equitable instrument to achieve developmental objectives such as the expansion of service coverage and development of water and sanitation infrastructure. The potential of public operations in maximising developmental impact from the social, economic and environmental points of view is then explored referring to specific examples from a variety of countries and regions. These include the in-house restructuring of public operations to enhance transparency, accountability and effectiveness, as well as the use of Public-Public Partnerships (PUPs) to build capacity. Attention is devoted to the specific financial requirements of expanding sewerage services at global level to achieve MDGs or broader developmental goals. These requirements are revisited in light of a regional breakdown of coverage gaps, available resources and development aid flows. These findings challenge the established view among international and bilateral agencies that expanding sewerage services in developing countries is excessively costly and should be abandoned as a priority because unaffordable. This contribution draws on a number of PSIRU Reports, and particularly the following. - http://www.psiru.org/reports/2008-03-W-sewers.pdf - http://boell-latinoamerica.org/download_es/agua08_privatizacion_LA_2007.pdf - http://boell-latinoamerica.org/download_es/agua08_agua_un_servicio_publico.pdf - http://www.psiru.org/reports/2006-03-W-investment.pdf All PSIRU Reports are accessible at http://www.psiru.org/publicationsindex.asp.

More public rescues for more private finance failures - a critique of the EC Communication on PPPs

A critique of the EC Communication on PPPs, challenging the scale of state aid offered to PPPs, the role of PPPs in the economic recovery strategy for the EU, and drawing attention to the damage done to public authorities by 'innovative' financing mechanisms.