Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

Multipath routing to provide quality of service in mobile ad hoc networks

Because of frequent topology changes and node failures, providing quality of service routing in mobile ad hoc networks becomes a very critical issue. The quality of service can be provided by routing the data along multiple paths. Such selection of multiple paths helps to improve reliability and load balancing, reduce delay introduced due to route rediscovery in presence of path failures. There are basically two issues in such a multipath routing Firstly, the sender node needs to obtain the exact topology information. Since the nodes are continuously roaming, obtaining the exact topology information is a tough task. Here, we propose an algorithm which constructs highly accurate network topology with minimum overhead. The second issue is that the paths in the path set should offer best reliability and network throughput. This is achieved in two ways 1) by choice of a proper metric which is a function of residual power, traffic load on the node and in the surrounding medium 2) by allowing the reliable links to be shared between different paths.

Neural network based optimal routing algorithm for communication networks

This paper presents the capability of the neural networks as a computational tool for solving constrained optimization problem, arising in routing algorithms for the present day communication networks. The application of neural networks in the optimum routing problem, in case of packet switched computer networks, where the goal is to minimize the average delays in the communication have been addressed. The effectiveness of neural network is shown by the results of simulation of a neural design to solve the shortest path problem. Simulation model of neural network is shown to be utilized in an optimum routing algorithm known as flow deviation algorithm. It is also shown that the model will enable the routing algorithm to be implemented in real time and also to be adaptive to changes in link costs and network topology. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calcium-Decorated Carbyne Networks as Hydrogen Storage Media

Among the carbon allotropes, carbyne chains appear outstandingly accessible for sorption and very light. Hydrogen adsorption on calcium-decorated carbyne chain was studied using ab initio density functional calculations. The estimation of surface area of carbyne gives the value four times larger than that of graphene, which makes carbyne attractive as a storage scaffold medium. Furthermore, calculations show that a Ca-decorated carbyne can adsorb up to 6 H(2) molecules per Ca atom with a binding energy of similar to 0.2 eV, desirable for reversible storage, and the hydrogen storage capacity can exceed similar to 8 wt %. Unlike recently reported transition metal-decorated carbon nanostructures, which suffer from the metal clustering diminishing the storage capacity, the clustering of Ca atoms on carbyne is energetically unfavorable. Thermodynamics of adsorption of H(2) molecules on the Ca atom was also investigated using equilibrium grand partition function.

Determining Top K Nodes in Social Networks using the Shapley Value

In this paper, we consider the problem of selecting, for any given positive integer k, the top-k nodes in a social network, based on a certain measure appropriate for the social network. This problem is relevant in many settings such as analysis of co-authorship networks, diffusion of information, viral marketing, etc. However, in most situations, this problem turns out to be NP-hard. The existing approaches for solving this problem are based on approximation algorithms and assume that the objective function is sub-modular. In this paper, we propose a novel and intuitive algorithm based on the Shapley value, for efficiently computing an approximate solution to this problem. Our proposed algorithm does not use the sub-modularity of the underlying objective function and hence it is a general approach. We demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithm using a co-authorship data set from e-print arXiv (www.arxiv.org), having 8361 authors.

Volume Change behaviour in Calcitic Soil influenced with Sulphuric Acid using Artificial Neural Networks

This paper elucidates the methodology of applying artificial neural network model (ANNM) to predict the percent swell of calcitic soil in sulphuric acid solutions, a complex phenomenon involving many parameters. Swell data required for modelling is experimentally obtained using conventional oedometer tests under nominal surcharge. The phases in ANN include optimal design of architecture, operation and training of architecture. The designed optimal neural model (3-5-1) is a fully connected three layer feed forward network with symmetric sigmoid activation function and trained by the back propagation algorithm to minimize a quadratic error criterion.The used model requires parameters such as duration of interaction, calcite mineral content and acid concentration for prediction of swell. The observed strong correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.9979) between the values determined by the experiment and predicted using the developed model demonstrates that the network can provide answers to complex problems in geotechnical engineering.

Stress-Strain Prediction of Jointed Rocks using Artificial Neural Networks

The applicability of Artificial Neural Networks for predicting the stress-strain response of jointed rocks at varied confining pressures, strength properties and joint properties (frequency, orientation and strength of joints) has been studied in the present paper. The database is formed from the triaxial compression tests on different jointed rocks with different confining pressures and different joint properties reported by various researchers. This input data covers a wide range of rock strengths, varying from very soft to very hard. The network was trained using a 3 layered network with feed forward back propagation algorithm. About 85% of the data was used for training and remaining15% for testing the predicting capabilities of the network. Results from the analyses were very encouraging and demonstrated that the neural network approach is efficient in capturing the complex stress-strain behaviour of jointed rocks. A single neural network is demonstrated to be capable of predicting the stress-strain response of different rocks, whose intact strength vary from 11.32 MPa to 123 MPa and spacing of joints vary from 10 cm to 100 cm for confining pressures ranging from 0 to 13.8 MPa.

On the Limits of Spatial Reuse and Cooperative Communication for Dense Wireless Networks

We consider a dense ad hoc wireless network comprising n nodes confined to a given two dimensional region of fixed area. For the Gupta-Kumar random traffic model and a realistic interference and path loss model (i.e., the channel power gains are bounded above, and are bounded below by a strictly positive number), we study the scaling of the aggregate end-to-end throughput with respect to the network average power constraint, P macr, and the number of nodes, n. The network power constraint P macr is related to the per node power constraint, P macr, as P macr = np. For large P, we show that the throughput saturates as Theta(log(P macr)), irrespective of the number of nodes in the network. For moderate P, which can accommodate spatial reuse to improve end-to-end throughput, we observe that the amount of spatial reuse feasible in the network is limited by the diameter of the network. In fact, we observe that the end-to-end path loss in the network and the amount of spatial reuse feasible in the network are inversely proportional. This puts a restriction on the gains achievable using the cooperative communication techniques studied in and, as these rely on direct long distance communication over the network.

Two-timescale Q-learning Algorithms with an Application to Routing in Networks

We propose two variants of the Q-learning algorithm that (both) use two timescales. One of these updates Q-values of all feasible state-action pairs at each instant while the other updates Q-values of states with actions chosen according to the ‘current ’ randomized policy updates. A sketch of convergence of the algorithms is shown. Finally, numerical experiments using the proposed algorithms for routing on different network topologies are presented and performance comparisons with the regular Q-learning algorithm are shown.

Broadcast in Adhoc Wireless Networks with Selfish Nodes: A Bayesian Incentive Compatibility Approach

We consider the incentive compatible broadcast (ICB) problem in ad hoc wireless networks with selfish nodes. We design a Bayesian incentive compatible broadcast (BIC-B) protocol to address this problem. VCG mechanism based schemes have been popularly used in the literature to design dominant strategy incentive compatible (DSIC) protocols for ad hoc wireless networks. VCG based mechanisms have two critical limitations: (i) the network is required to be bi-connected, (ii) the resulting protocol is not budget balanced. Our proposed BIC-B protocol overcomes these difficulties. We also prove the optimality of the proposed scheme.

A Shapley Value Analysis to Coordinate the Formation of Procurement Networks

In this paper we address the problem of forming procurement networks for items with value adding stages that are linearly arranged. Formation of such procurement networks involves a bottom-up assembly of complex production, assembly, and exchange relationships through supplier selection and contracting decisions. Research in supply chain management has emphasized that such decisions need to take into account the fact that suppliers and buyers are intelligent and rational agents who act strategically. In this paper, we view the problem of procurement network formation (PNF) for multiple units of a single item as a cooperative game where agents cooperate to form a surplus maximizing procurement network and then share the surplus in a fair manner. We study the implications of using the Shapley value as a solution concept for forming such procurement networks. We also present a protocol, based on the extensive form game realization of the Shapley value, for forming these networks.

Optimal Parameterized Policies for Resource Allocation in Communication Networks

The problem of finding optimal parameterized feedback policies for dynamic bandwidth allocation in communication networks is studied. We consider a queueing model with two queues to which traffic from different competing flows arrive. The queue length at the buffers is observed every T instants of time, on the basis of which a decision on the amount of bandwidth to be allocated to each buffer for the next T instants is made. We consider two different classes of multilevel closed-loop feedback policies for the system and use a two-timescale simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm to find optimal policies within each prescribed class. We study the performance of the proposed algorithm on a numerical setting and show performance comparisons of the two optimal multilevel closedloop policies with optimal open loop policies. We observe that closed loop policies of Class B that tune parameters for both the queues and do not have the constraint that the entire bandwidth be used at each instant exhibit the best results overall as they offer greater flexibility in parameter tuning. Index Terms — Resource allocation, dynamic bandwidth allocation in communication networks, two-timescale SPSA algorithm, optimal parameterized policies. I.

A generalized network alignment for three-source three-destination multiple unicast networks with delays

The concept of interference alignment when extended to three-source three-destination instantaneous multiple unicast network for the case where, each source-destination pair has a min-cut of 1 and zero-interference conditions are not satisfied, is known to achieve a rate of half for every source-destination pair under certain conditions [6]. This was called network alignment. We generalize this concept of network alignment to three-source three-destination multiple unicast (3S-3D-MU) networks with delays, without making use of memory at the intermediate nodes (i.e., nodes other than the sources and destinations) and using time varying Local Encoding Kernels (LEKs). This achieves half the rate corresponding to the individual source-destination min-cut for some classes of 3S-3D-MU network with delays which do not satisfy the zero-interference conditions.

Biquadratic pulse transmission networks

A second order transfer function with two poles and two zeros exhibits a step response characterized by a sudden rise to the steady state value, followed by oscillations around this steady state. With proper choice of the coefficients, it is possible to obtain transfer functions suitable for pulse transmission purposes.