Linear and non-linear transmission of equity return volatility: evidence from the US, Japan and Australia

This paper models the transmission of shocks between the US, Japanese and Australian equity markets. Tests for the existence of linear and non-linear transmission of volatility across the markets are performed using parametric and non-parametric techniques. In particular the size and sign of return innovations are important factors in determining the degree of spillovers in volatility. It is found that a multivariate asymmetric GARCH formulation can explain almost all of the non-linear causality between markets. These results have important implications for the construction of models and forecasts of international equity returns.

Linear and non-linear (non-)forecastability of high-frequency exchange rates

This paper forecasts Daily Sterling exchange rate returns using various naive, linear and non-linear univariate time-series models. The accuracy of the forecasts is evaluated using mean squared error and sign prediction criteria. These show only a very modest improvement over forecasts generated by a random walk model. The Pesaran–Timmerman test and a comparison with forecasts generated artificially shows that even the best models have no evidence of market timing ability.

Gaussian anamorphosis in the analysis step of the EnKF: a joint state-variable/observation approach

The analysis step of the (ensemble) Kalman filter is optimal when (1) the distribution of the background is Gaussian, (2) state variables and observations are related via a linear operator, and (3) the observational error is of additive nature and has Gaussian distribution. When these conditions are largely violated, a pre-processing step known as Gaussian anamorphosis (GA) can be applied. The objective of this procedure is to obtain state variables and observations that better fulfil the Gaussianity conditions in some sense. In this work we analyse GA from a joint perspective, paying attention to the effects of transformations in the joint state variable/observation space. First, we study transformations for state variables and observations that are independent from each other. Then, we introduce a targeted joint transformation with the objective to obtain joint Gaussianity in the transformed space. We focus primarily in the univariate case, and briefly comment on the multivariate one. A key point of this paper is that, when (1)-(3) are violated, using the analysis step of the EnKF will not recover the exact posterior density in spite of any transformations one may perform. These transformations, however, provide approximations of different quality to the Bayesian solution of the problem. Using an example in which the Bayesian posterior can be analytically computed, we assess the quality of the analysis distributions generated after applying the EnKF analysis step in conjunction with different GA options. The value of the targeted joint transformation is particularly clear for the case when the prior is Gaussian, the marginal density for the observations is close to Gaussian, and the likelihood is a Gaussian mixture.

Fractional order and non-linear system identification algorithms for biomedical applications

We discuss the modelling of dielectric responses of amorphous biological samples. Such samples are commonly encountered in impedance spectroscopy studies as well as in UV, IR, optical and THz transient spectroscopy experiments and in pump-probe studies. In many occasions, the samples may display quenched absorption bands. A systems identification framework may be developed to provide parsimonious representations of such responses. To achieve this, it is appropriate to augment the standard models found in the identification literature to incorporate fractional order dynamics. Extensions of models using the forward shift operator, state space models as well as their non-linear Hammerstein-Wiener counterpart models are highlighted. We also discuss the need to extend the theory of electromagnetically excited networks which can account for fractional order behaviour in the non-linear regime by incorporating nonlinear elements to account for the observed non-linearities. The proposed approach leads to the development of a range of new chemometrics tools for biomedical data analysis and classification.

Meta-morphs: – being a mediator of the ‘thin’ place and ‘thin’ experience in the HE classroom. A paper on the experience of creating transformations in HE teaching and learning

The research which underpins this paper began as a doctoral project exploring archaic beliefs concerning Otherworlds and Thin Places in two particular landscapes - the West Coast of Wales and the West Coast of Ireland. A Thin Place is an ancient Celtic Christian term used to describe a marginal, liminal realm, beyond everyday human experience and perception, where mortals could pass into the Otherworld more readily, or make contact with those in the Otherworld more willingly. To encounter a Thin Place in ancient folklore was significant because it engendered a state of alertness, an awakening to what the theologian John O’ Donohue (2004: 49) called “the primal affection.” These complex notions and terms will be further explored in this paper in relation to Education. Thin Teaching is a pedagogical approach which offers students the space to ruminate on the possibility that their existence can be more and can mean more than the categories they believed they belonged to or felt they should inhabit. Central to the argument then, is that certain places and their inhabitants can become revitalised by sensitively considered teaching methodologies. This raises interesting questions about the role spirituality plays in teaching practice as a tool for healing in the twenty first century.

Representation errors and retrievals in linear and nonlinear data assimilation

This article shows how one can formulate the representation problem starting from Bayes’ theorem. The purpose of this article is to raise awareness of the formal solutions,so that approximations can be placed in a proper context. The representation errors appear in the likelihood, and the different possibilities for the representation of reality in model and observations are discussed, including nonlinear representation probability density functions. Specifically, the assumptions needed in the usual procedure to add a representation error covariance to the error covariance of the observations are discussed,and it is shown that, when several sub-grid observations are present, their mean still has a representation error ; socalled ‘superobbing’ does not resolve the issue. Connection is made to the off-line or on-line retrieval problem, providing a new simple proof of the equivalence of assimilating linear retrievals and original observations. Furthermore, it is shown how nonlinear retrievals can be assimilated without loss of information. Finally we discuss how errors in the observation operator model can be treated consistently in the Bayesian framework, connecting to previous work in this area.

Evaluation of positioning error-induced pixel shifts on satellite linear push-broom imagery

Georeferencing is one of the major tasks of satellite-borne remote sensing. Compared to traditional indirect methods, direct georeferencing through a Global Positioning System/inertial navigation system requires fewer and simpler steps to obtain exterior orientation parameters of remotely sensed images. However, the pixel shift caused by geographic positioning error, which is generally derived from boresight angle as well as terrain topography variation, can have a great impact on the precision of georeferencing. The distribution of pixel shifts introduced by the positioning error on a satellite linear push-broom image is quantitatively analyzed. We use the variation of the object space coordinate to simulate different kinds of positioning errors and terrain topography. Then a total differential method was applied to establish a rigorous sensor model in order to mathematically obtain the relationship between pixel shift and positioning error. Finally, two simulation experiments are conducted using the imaging parameters of Chang’ E-1 satellite to evaluate two different kinds of positioning errors. The experimental results have shown that with the experimental parameters, the maximum pixel shift could reach 1.74 pixels. The proposed approach can be extended to a generic application for imaging error modeling in remote sensing with terrain variation.

Improving power and accuracy of genome-wide association studies via a multi-locus mixed linear model methodology

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been widely used in genetic dissection of complex traits. However, common methods are all based on a fixed-SNP-effect mixed linear model (MLM) and single marker analysis, such as efficient mixed model analysis (EMMA). These methods require Bonferroni correction for multiple tests, which often is too conservative when the number of markers is extremely large. To address this concern, we proposed a random-SNP-effect MLM (RMLM) and a multi-locus RMLM (MRMLM) for GWAS. The RMLM simply treats the SNP-effect as random, but it allows a modified Bonferroni correction to be used to calculate the threshold p value for significance tests. The MRMLM is a multi-locus model including markers selected from the RMLM method with a less stringent selection criterion. Due to the multi-locus nature, no multiple test correction is needed. Simulation studies show that the MRMLM is more powerful in QTN detection and more accurate in QTN effect estimation than the RMLM, which in turn is more powerful and accurate than the EMMA. To demonstrate the new methods, we analyzed six flowering time related traits in Arabidopsis thaliana and detected more genes than previous reported using the EMMA. Therefore, the MRMLM provides an alternative for multi-locus GWAS.

On mathematical and physical principles of transformations of the coherent radar backscatter matrix

The congruential rule advanced by Graves for polarization basis transformation of the radar backscatter matrix is now often misinterpreted as an example of consimilarity transformation. However, consimilarity transformations imply a physically unrealistic antilinear time-reversal operation. This is just one of the approaches found in literature to the description of transformations where the role of conjugation has been misunderstood. In this paper, the different approaches are examined in particular in respect to the role of conjugation. In order to justify and correctly derive the congruential rule for polarization basis transformation and properly place the role of conjugation, the origin of the problem is traced back to the derivation of the antenna height from the transmitted field. In fact, careful consideration of the role played by the Green’s dyadic operator relating the antenna height to the transmitted field shows that, under general unitary basis transformation, it is not justified to assume a scalar relationship between them. Invariance of the voltage equation shows that antenna states and wave states must in fact lie in dual spaces, a distinction not captured in conventional Jones vector formalism. Introducing spinor formalism, and with the use of an alternate spin frame for the transmitted field a mathematically consistent implementation of the directional wave formalism is obtained. Examples are given comparing the wider generality of the congruential rule in both active and passive transformations with the consimilarity rule.

A new adaptive multiple modelling approach for non-linear and non-stationary systems

This paper proposes a novel adaptive multiple modelling algorithm for non-linear and non-stationary systems. This simple modelling paradigm comprises K candidate sub-models which are all linear. With data available in an online fashion, the performance of all candidate sub-models are monitored based on the most recent data window, and M best sub-models are selected from the K candidates. The weight coefficients of the selected sub-model are adapted via the recursive least square (RLS) algorithm, while the coefficients of the remaining sub-models are unchanged. These M model predictions are then optimally combined to produce the multi-model output. We propose to minimise the mean square error based on a recent data window, and apply the sum to one constraint to the combination parameters, leading to a closed-form solution, so that maximal computational efficiency can be achieved. In addition, at each time step, the model prediction is chosen from either the resultant multiple model or the best sub-model, whichever is the best. Simulation results are given in comparison with some typical alternatives, including the linear RLS algorithm and a number of online non-linear approaches, in terms of modelling performance and time consumption.

Comparing performance of instrumental drift correction by linear and quadratic adjusting in inductive electromagnetic data

Electromagnetic induction (EMI) method results are shown for vertical magnetic dipole (VMD) configuration by using the EM38 equipment. Performance in the location of metallic pipes and electrical cables is compared as a function of instrumental drift correction by linear and quadratic adjusting under controlled conditions. Metallic pipes and electrical cables are buried at the IAG/USP shallow geophysical test site in Sao Paulo City. Brazil. Results show that apparent electrical conductivity and magnetic susceptibility data were affected by ambient temperature variation. In order to obtain better contrast between background and metallic targets it was necessary to correct the drift. This correction was accomplished by using linear and quadratic relation between conductivity/susceptibility and temperature intending comparative studies. The correction of temperature drift by using a quadratic relation was effective, showing that all metallic targets were located as well deeper targets were also improved. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

COMPARISON BETWEEN LINEAR AND DAILY UNDULATING PERIODIZED RESISTANCE TRAINING TO INCREASE STRENGTH

Prestes, J, Frollini, AB, De Lima, C, Donatto, FF, Foschini, D, de Marqueti, RC, Figueira Jr, A, and Fleck, SJ. Comparison between linear and daily undulating periodized resistance training to increase strength. J Strength Cond Res 23(9): 2437-2442, 2009-To determine the most effective periodization model for strength and hypertrophy is an important step for strength and conditioning professionals. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of linear (LP) and daily undulating periodized (DUP) resistance training on body composition and maximal strength levels. Forty men aged 21.5 +/- 8.3 and with a minimum 1-year strength training experience were assigned to an LP (n = 20) or DUP group (n = 20). Subjects were tested for maximal strength in bench press, leg press 45 degrees, and arm curl (1 repetition maximum [RM]) at baseline (T1), after 8 weeks (T2), and after 12 weeks of training (T3). Increases of 18.2 and 25.08% in bench press 1 RM were observed for LP and DUP groups in T3 compared with T1, respectively (p <= 0.05). In leg press 45 degrees, LP group exhibited an increase of 24.71% and DUP of 40.61% at T3 compared with T1. Additionally, DUP showed an increase of 12.23% at T2 compared with T1 and 25.48% at T3 compared with T2. For the arm curl exercise, LP group increased 14.15% and DUP 23.53% at T3 when compared with T1. An increase of 20% was also found at T2 when compared with T1, for DUP. Although the DUP group increased strength the most in all exercises, no statistical differences were found between groups. In conclusion, undulating periodized strength training induced higher increases in maximal strength than the linear model in strength-trained men. For maximizing strength increases, daily intensity and volume variations were more effective than weekly variations.