Reinforcement Learning Based on the Bayesian Theorem for Electricity Markets Decision Support

This paper presents the applicability of a reinforcement learning algorithm based on the application of the Bayesian theorem of probability. The proposed reinforcement learning algorithm is an advantageous and indispensable tool for ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to electricity market negotiating players. ALBidS uses a set of different strategies for providing decision support to market players. These strategies are used accordingly to their probability of success for each different context. The approach proposed in this paper uses a Bayesian network for deciding the most probably successful action at each time, depending on past events. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested using electricity market simulations in MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets). MASCEM provides the means for simulating a real electricity market environment, based on real data from real electricity market operators.

Data Extraction Tool to Analyse, Transform and Store Real Data from Electricity Markets

The study of electricity markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance in the last years, as result of the new challenges that the restructuring process produced. Currently, lots of information concerning electricity markets is available, as market operators provide, after a period of confidentiality, data regarding market proposals and transactions. These data can be used as source of knowledge to define realistic scenarios, which are essential for understanding and forecast electricity markets behavior. The development of tools able to extract, transform, store and dynamically update data, is of great importance to go a step further into the comprehension of electricity markets and of the behaviour of the involved entities. In this paper an adaptable tool capable of downloading, parsing and storing data from market operators’ websites is presented, assuring constant updating and reliability of the stored data.

A Learning Algorithm and System Approach to Address Exceptional Events in Domestic Consumption Management

The integration of the Smart Grid concept into the electric grid brings to the need for an active participation of small and medium players. This active participation can be achieved using decentralized decisions, in which the end consumer can manage loads regarding the Smart Grid needs. The management of loads must handle the users’ preferences, wills and needs. However, the users’ preferences, wills and needs can suffer changes when faced with exceptional events. This paper proposes the integration of exceptional events into the SCADA House Intelligent Management (SHIM) system developed by the authors, to handle machine learning issues in the domestic consumption context. An illustrative application and learning case study is provided in this paper.

Data Mining Approach to support the Generation of Realistic Scenarios for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets

This paper presents the Realistic Scenarios Generator (RealScen), a tool that processes data from real electricity markets to generate realistic scenarios that enable the modeling of electricity market players’ characteristics and strategic behavior. The proposed tool provides significant advantages to the decision making process in an electricity market environment, especially when coupled with a multi-agent electricity markets simulator. The generation of realistic scenarios is performed using mechanisms for intelligent data analysis, which are based on artificial intelligence and data mining algorithms. These techniques allow the study of realistic scenarios, adapted to the existing markets, and improve the representation of market entities as software agents, enabling a detailed modeling of their profiles and strategies. This work contributes significantly to the understanding of the interactions between the entities acting in electricity markets by increasing the capability and realism of market simulations.

The role of lifelong learning (LLL) in the creation of a european knowledge- based society

This chapter appears in Encyclopaedia of Human Resources Information Systems: Challenges in e-HRM edited by Torres-Coronas, T. and Arias-Oliva, M. Copyright 2009, IGI Global, www.igi-global.com. Posted by permission of the publisher. URL:http://www.igi-pub.com/reference/details.asp?id=7737

The development of a knowledge-based society - Challenges for e-learning and adult students in higher education

This chapter appears in Encyclopaedia of Distance Learning 2nd Edition edit by Rogers, P.; Berg, Gary; Boettecher, Judith V.; Howard, Caroline; Justice, Lorraine; Schenk, Karen D.. Copyright 2009, IGI Global, www.igi-global.com. Posted by permission of the publisher. URL: http://www.igi-global.com/reference/ details.asp?ID=9703&v=tableOfContents

Evolutive behavior towards cardiomyopathy of treated (nifurtimox or benznidazole) and untreated chronic chagasic patients

The aim of this work was to compare the evolution of chronic chagasic untreated patients (UTPs) with that of benznidazole or nifurtimox-treated patients (TPs). A longitudinal study from a low endemic area (Santa Fe city, Argentina) was performed during an average period of 14 years. Serological and parasitological analyses with clinical exams, ECG and X-chest ray were carried out. At the onset, 19/198 infected patients showed chagasic cardiomyopathy (CrChM) while 179 were asymptomatic. In this latter group the frequency of CrChM during the follow-up was lower in TPs compared with UTPs (3.2% vs 7%). Within the CrChM group, 2/5 TPs showed aggravated myopathy whereas this happened in 9/14 UTPs. Comparing the clinical evolution of all patients, 5.9% of TPs and 13% of UTPs had unfavourable evolution, but the difference is not statistically relevant. Serological titers were assessed by IIF. Titers equal to or lower than 1/64 were obtained in 86% of the TPs, but only in 38% of UTPs. The differences were statistically significant (geometric mean: 49.36 vs. 98.2). Antiparasitic assessment of the drugs (xenodiagnosis) proved to be effective. The low sensitivity in chronic chagasic patients must be born in mind. Despite treated patients showed a better clinical evolution and lower antibody levels than untreated ones, it is necessary to carry on doing research in order to improve therapeutic guidelines, according to the risk/benefit equation and based on scientific and ethical principles.

The impact of firm-promoted accreditation of prior learning processes on the worker-organization relationship

The process of Competences Recognition, Validation and Certification , also known as Accreditation of Prior Learning (APL), is an innovative means of attaining school certificates for individuals without an academic background. The main objective of this process is to validate what people have learned in informal contexts, in order to attribute academic certificates. With the increasing interest of the qualification of workers and governmental support, more and more Portuguese organizations promote this process within their facilities and their work hours. This study explores the relationship between the promotion of this Human Resource Development Programme and employee’s attitudes (Job Satisfaction and Organizational Commitment) and behaviours (Extra-role Organizational Citizenship Behaviours) towards the organization they work for. Results of a cross-sectional survey of Portuguese Industrial Workers (N=135) showed that statistical significant results are in the higher levels of Voice Behaviours (a dimension of Extra-role Organizational Citizenship Behaviour in the groups of workers who were involved or had graduated from the firm promoted APL process.

Health care marketing: the theory of planned behavior applied to patients' choise between private and public providers in the portuguese health care system.

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for degree of Master in Statistics and Information Management.

Building a knowledge and learning society in Portugal - Adult students in technological schools and higher education institutions

Chapter in Merrill, Barbara (ed.) (2009) Learning to Change? The Role of Identity and Learning Careers in Adult Education. Hamburg: Peter Lang Publishers. URL: http://www.peterlang.com/ index.cfm?vID=58279&vLang=E&vHR=1&vUR=2&vUUR=1

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