A real-time PCR assay for the detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae by LightCycler

The detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is now recognized as a sensitive and specific method of diagnosing infection by the organism. In this Study 152 urine specimens were examined for N. gonorrhoeae by a real-time PCR method using the LightCycler platform and results were compared to an in-house PCR assay using an ELISA-based detection method. N. gonorrhoeae DNA was detected in 29 (19%) specimens by LightCycler PCR (LC-PCR) and in 31 (20%) specimens by the in house PCR method. The LightCycler assay proved to be specific and 94% sensitive when compared to the in house PCR method. These features combined with the rapid turn-around time for results makes the LC-PCR particularly suitable for the detection of N. gonorrhoeae in a routine clinical laboratory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Reasoning about real-time repetitions: terminating and nonterminating

It is common for a real-time system to contain a nonterminating process monitoring an input and controlling an output. Hence, a real-time program development method needs to support nonterminating repetitions. In this paper we develop a general proof rule for reasoning about possibly nonterminating repetitions. The rule makes use of a Floyd-Hoare-style loop invariant that is maintained by each iteration of the repetition, a Jones-style relation between the pre- and post-states on each iteration, and a deadline specifying an upper bound on the starting time of each iteration. The general rule is proved correct with respect to a predicative semantics. In the case of a terminating repetition the rule reduces to the standard rule extended to handle real time. Other special cases include repetitions whose bodies are guaranteed to terminate, nonterminating repetitions with the constant true as a guard, and repetitions whose termination is guaranteed by the inclusion of a fixed deadline. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetics of Serum Dehydroepiandrosterone Sulfate and Its Relationship to Insulin in a Population-Based Cohort of Twin Subjects

Previous studies have shown a significant effect of insulin administration on serum dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEA-S) concentration and its metabolic rate, with evidence for the effect in men, but not in women. This could lead to differences in the sources of variation in serum DHEA-S between men and women and in its covariation with insulin concentration. This study aimed to test whether these hypotheses were supported in a sample of healthy adult twins. Serum DHEA-S (n=2287) and plasma insulin (n=2436) were measured in samples from adult male and female twins recruited through the Australian Twin Registry. Models of genetic and environmental sources of variation and covariation were tested against the data. DHEA-S showed substantial genetic effects in both men and women after adjustment for covariates, including sex, age, body mass index, and time since the last meal. There was no significant phenotypic or genetic correlation between DHEA-S and insulin in either men or women. Despite the experimental evidence for insulin infusion producing a reduction in serum DHEA-S and some effect of meals on the observed DHEA-S concentration, there were no associations between insulin and DHEA-S at the population level. Variations in DHEA-S are due to age, sex, obesity, and substantial polygenic genetic influences.

Saving, productivity and national income: a discrete-time geometric framework

This paper proposes an alternative geometric framework for analysing the inter-relationship between domestic saving, productivity and income determination in discrete time. The framework provides a means of understanding how low saving economies like the United States sustained high growth rates in the 1990s whereas high saving Japan did not. It also illustrates how the causality between saving and economic activity runs both ways and that discrete changes in national output and income depend on both current and previous accumulation behaviour. The open economy analogue reveals how international capital movements can create external account imbalances that enhance income growth for both borrower and lender economies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This paper presents a method of evaluating the expected value of a path integral for a general Markov chain on a countable state space. We illustrate the method with reference to several models, including birth-death processes and the birth, death and catastrophe process. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Microevolution in island forms: the roles of drift and directional selection in morphological divergence of a passerine bird

Theory predicts that in small isolated populations random genetic drift can lead to phenotypic divergence; however this prediction has rarely been tested quantitatively in natural populations. Here we utilize natural repeated island colonization events by members of the avian species complex, Zosterops lateralis, to assess whether or not genetic drift alone is an adequate explanation for the observed patterns of microevolutionary divergence in morphology. Morphological and molecular genetic characteristics of island and mainland populations are compared to test three predictions of drift theory: (1) that the pattern of morphological change is idiosyncratic to each island; (2) that there is concordance between morphological and neutral genetic shifts across island populations; and (3) for populations whose time of colonization is known, that the rate of morphological change is sufficiently slow to be accounted for solely by genetic drift. Our results are not consistent with these predictions. First, the direction of size shifts was consistently towards larger size, suggesting the action of a nonrandom process. Second, patterns of morphological divergence among recently colonized populations showed little concordance with divergence in neutral genetic characters. Third, rate tests of morphological change showed that effective population sizes were not small enough for random processes alone to account for the magnitude of microevolutionary change. Altogether, these three lines of evidence suggest that drift alone is not an adequate explanation of morphological differentiation in recently colonized island Zosterops and therefore we suggest that the observed microevolutionary changes are largely a result of directional natural selection.

Testing insect movement theory: empirical analysis of pest data routinely collected from agricultural crops

Observations of an insect's movement lead to theory on the insect's flight behaviour and the role of movement in the species' population dynamics. This theory leads to predictions of the way the population changes in time under different conditions. If a hypothesis on movement predicts a specific change in the population, then the hypothesis can be tested against observations of population change. Routine pest monitoring of agricultural crops provides a convenient source of data for studying movement into a region and among fields within a region. Examples of the use of statistical and computational methods for testing hypotheses with such data are presented. The types of questions that can be addressed with these methods and the limitations of pest monitoring data when used for this purpose are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Shear stress and sediment transport calculations for swash zone modelling

It is shown that the observed difference in sediment transporting efficiency by the swash uprush, compared with the downrush, could be mainly due to greater bed shear stress for a given velocity in the more abruptly accelerated uprush. The bed shear stress generated by an arbitrary free stream velocity time series is modelled in terms of usual wave boundary layer models plus a phase lead (phi(tau) of the bed shear stress compared with the free stream velocity at the peak frequency. With this approach, the total transport amounts in uprush and downrush can be modelled satisfactorily with the same sediment transport formula, without the need for different uprush and downrush coefficients. While the adaptation of sediment transport formulae from steady flow can thus lead to the right total amounts of sediment moved by this method, the timing of the instantaneous sediment transport rates are probably not accurately modelled due to the highly unsteady nature of the swash and the presence of pre-suspended sediment in the uprush. Nevertheless, the proposed method is a useful intermediate step before we have a complete understanding of sediment transport under very rapid accelerations and of the relative contribution of pre-suspended sediment to the onshore sediment transport in swash zones. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Anticipation of a non-aversive reaction time task facilitates the blink startle reflex

The conditions under which blink startle facilitation can be found in anticipation of a reaction time task were investigated to resolve inconsistent findings across previous studies. Four groups of participants (n = 64) were presented with two visual stimuli, one predicting a reaction time task (S+) and the second presented alone (S-). Participants were asked to make a speeded response to the offset of the S+ (S1 paradigm) or were asked to respond to a tactile stimulus presented at the offset of the S+ (S1-S2 paradigm). Half of the participants in each paradigm condition received performance feedback. Overall, blink latency shortening and magnitude facilitation were larger during S+ than during S-. More detailed analyses, however, found these differences to be reliable only in the Feedback conditions. Ratings of S+ pleasantness did not change across the experiment. Electrodermal responses to S+ were larger than to S- in all groups with differential electrodermal responding emerging earlier in the S1 paradigm. Taken together, the data support the notion that startle facilitation can occur during non-aversive Pavlovian conditioning. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Lead stimulus modality change and the attentional modulation of the acoustic and electrical blink reflex

Two experiments investigated the effects of the sensory modality of the lead and of the blink-eliciting stimulus during lead stimulus modality change on blink modulation at lead intervals of 2500 and 3500 ins. Participants were presented with acoustic, visual, or tactile change stimuli after habituation training with lead stimuli from the same or a different sensory modality. In Experiment 1, latency and magnitude of the acoustic blink were facilitated during a change to acoustic or visual lead stimuli, but not during a change to tactile lead stimuli. After habituation to acoustic lead stimuli, blink magnitude was smaller during tactile change stimuli than during habituation stimuli. The latter finding was replicated in Experiment 2 in which blink was elicited by electrical stimulation of the trigeminal nerve. The consistency of the findings across different combinations of lead stimulus and blink-eliciting stimulus modalities does not support a modality-specific account of attentional blink modulation. Rather, blink modulation during generalized orienting reflects modality non-specific processes, although modulation may not always be found during tactile lead stimuli. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A formal model of real-time program compilation

Program compilation can be formally defined as a sequence of equivalence-preserving transformations, or refinements, from high-level language programs to assembler code, Recent models also incorporate timing properties, but the resulting formalisms are intimidatingly complex. Here we take advantage of a new, simple model of real-time refinement, based on predicate transformer semantics, to present a straightforward compilation formalism that incorporates real-time constraints. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Vertical fluxes of sediment in oscillatory sheet flow

Time series of vertical sediment fluxes are derived from concentration time series in sheet flow under waves. While the concentrations C(z,t) vary very little with time for \z\ < 10d(50), the measured vertical sediment fluxes Q(zs)(z,t) vary strongly with time in this vertical band and their time variation follows, to some extent, the variation of the grain roughness Shields parameter 02,5(t). Thus, sediment distribution models based on the pickup function boundary condition are in some qualitative agreement with the measurements. However, the pickup function models are only able to model the upward bursts of sediment during the accelerating phases of the flow. They are, so far, unable to model the following strong downward sediment fluxes, which are observed during the periods of flow deceleration. Classical pickup functions, which essentially depend on the Shields parameter, are also incapable of modelling the secondary entrainment fluxes, which sometimes occur at free stream velocity reversal. The measured vertical fluxes indicate that the effective sediment settling velocity in the high [(0.3 < C(z,t) < 0.4] concentration area is typically only a few percent of the clear water settling velocity, while the measurements of Richardson and Jeronimo [Chem. Eng. Sci. 34 (1979) 1419], from a different physical setting, lead to estimates of the order 20%. The data does not support gradient diffusion as a model for sediment entrainment from the bed. That is, detailed modelling of the observed near-bed fluxes would require diffusivities that go negative during periods of flow deceleration. An observed general trend for concentration variability to increase with elevation close to the bed is also irreconcilable with diffusion models driven by a bottom boundary condition. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.