Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface

Methods to explicitly represent uncertainties in weather and climate models have been developed and refined over the past decade, and have reduced biases and improved forecast skill when implemented in the atmospheric component of models. These methods have not yet been applied to the land surface component of models. Since the land surface is strongly coupled to the atmospheric state at certain times and in certain places (such as the European summer of 2003), improvements in the representation of land surface uncertainty may potentially lead to improvements in atmospheric forecasts for such events. Here we analyse seasonal retrospective forecasts for 1981–2012 performed with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ (ECMWF) coupled ensemble forecast model. We consider two methods of incorporating uncertainty into the land surface model (H-TESSEL): stochastic perturbation of tendencies, and static perturbation of key soil parameters. We find that the perturbed parameter approach considerably improves the forecast of extreme air temperature for summer 2003, through better representation of negative soil moisture anomalies and upward sensible heat flux. Averaged across all the reforecasts the perturbed parameter experiment shows relatively little impact on the mean bias, suggesting perturbations of at least this magnitude can be applied to the land surface without any degradation of model climate. There is also little impact on skill averaged across all reforecasts and some evidence of overdispersion for soil moisture. The stochastic tendency experiments show a large overdispersion for the soil temperature fields, indicating that the perturbation here is too strong. There is also some indication that the forecast of the 2003 warm event is improved for the stochastic experiments, however the improvement is not as large as observed for the perturbed parameter experiment.

Global change pressures on soils from land use and management

Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land use change, land management, and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges, and highlight actions and policies to minimise adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development.

Suitability of bronopol preservative treated milk for fatty acid determination

This work aimed to test if milk preserved with bronopol can be reliably used for fatty acid determination. Dairy production and milk quality are often monitored regularly to assess performance and contribute to selection indices. With evidence that fat composition can be influenced by selective breeding, there might be an interest in using samples collected in routine testing to evaluate individual cow fatty acid profiles, contributing to breeding indices. However, most recording services use a preservative such as bronopol and there is no published record if this influences subsequent fatty acid analysis. This study used milk from an oil seed supplementation trial, generating a wide range of milk fatty acid profiles, to test if the concentration of 31 individual fatty acids determined by GC were influenced by bronopol. Provided preserved samples are subsequently frozen, milk treated with bronopol can reliably be used to evaluate fatty acid composition in most cases; however bronopol might influence a few long-chain fatty acids present in relatively low concentrations. This is one small step towards simplifying milk compositional analysis but it could ultimately streamline the inclusion of milk fat quality into breeding indices, either with a view to 'healthier' milk or potentially reducing methane output and the environmental impact of dairy production.

Urban Growth Boundaries and their impact on land prices

Undeveloped land transactions at the urban fringe of the Melbourne metropolitan area in Australia are recorded in a dataset that enables exploration of the impact of its urban growth boundary (UGB) on residential land prices. Estimation can take account of a wide range of factors, while controlling for policy anticipation effects and other potential influences on land prices. Modelling estimates indicate that land prices rose substantially inside the UGB after its enactment in 2003, but did not rise much outside of it. These results suggest that the urban growth boundary has had a significant upward effect on the trajectory of the urban region’s house prices. Keywords: urban growth boundary, land prices, land market dynamics

Corporate governance in Fiji’s Native Land Trust Board

This article examines corporate governance in one of Fiji’s largest trust organisations, the Native Land Trust Board. The principal-agent framework is utilised to analyse the governance issue in this study. An examination of the annual reports and final accounts over the last three decades indicates that poor governance practices by the agent have resulted in the Board not delivering maximum returns to its principal, the landowners.

Electronic structure of porphyrin-based metal-organic frameworks and their suitability for solar fuel production photocatalysis

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) can be exceptionally good catalytic materials thanks to the presence of active metal centres and a porous structure that is advantageous for molecular adsorption and confinement. We present here a first-principles investigation of the electronic structure of a family of MOFs based on porphyrins connected through phenyl-carboxyl ligands and AlOH species, in order to assess their suitability for the photocatalysis of fuel production reactions using sunlight. We consider structures with protonated porphyrins and those with the protons exchanged with late 3d metal cations (Fe2+, Co2+, Ni2+, Cu2+, Zn2+), a process that we find to be thermodynamically favorable from aqueous solution for all these metals. Our band structure calculations, based on an accurate screened hybrid functional, reveal that the bandgaps are in a favorable range (2.0 to 2.6 eV) for efficient adsorption of solar light. Furthermore, by approximating the vacuum level to the pore center potential, we provide the alignment of the MOFs’ band edges with the redox potentials for water splitting and carbon dioxide reduction, and show that the structures studied here have band edges positions suitable for these reactions at neutral pH.

Struggles over family land? Tree crops, land and labour in Ghana's Brong-Ahafo region

Agricultural land use in much of Brong-Ahafo region, Ghana has been shifting from the production of food crops towards increased cashew nut cultivation in recent years. This article explores everyday, less visible, gendered and generational struggles over family farms in West Africa, based on qualitative, participatory research in a rural community that is becoming increasingly integrated into the global capitalist system. As a tree crop, cashew was regarded as an individual man's property to be passed on to his wife and children rather than to extended family members, which differed from the communal land tenure arrangements governing food crop cultivation. The tendency for land, cash crops and income to be controlled by men, despite women's and young people's significant labour contributions to family farms, and for women to rely on food crop production for their main source of income and for household food security, means that women and girls are more likely to lose out when cashew plantations are expanded to the detriment of land for food crops. Intergenerational tensions emerged when young people felt that their parents and elders were neglecting their views and concerns. The research provides important insights into gendered and generational power relations regarding land access, property rights and intra-household decision-making processes. Greater dialogue between genders and generations may help to tackle unequal power relations and lead to shared decision-making processes that build the resilience of rural communities.

Heathland restoration on former agricultural land: effects of artificial acidification on the availability and uptake of toxic metal cations

Lowland heath is an internationally important habitat type that has greatly declined in abundance throughout Western Europe. In recent years this has led to a growing interest in the restoration of heathland on agricultural land. This generally requires the use of chemical treatments to return soil chemical conditions to those appropriate for the support of heathland ecosystems. However, the potential for negative impacts on the environment due to the potential of these treatments to increase the availability of trace metals via raised soil acidity requires investigation. A large-scale field study investigated the effect of two chemical treatments used in heathland restoration, elemental sulphur and ferrous sulphate, on soil acidity and whether it is possible to predict the effect of the treatments on availability of two potentially toxic cations (Al and Cd) in the soil along with their subsequent accumulation in the shoots of the grass Agrostis capillaris. Results showed that both treatments decreased soil pH, but that only elemental sulphur produced a pH similar to heathland soil. The availability of Al, measured by extraction with 1 M ammonium nitrate, could not be predicted by soil pH, depth in the soil and total Al concentration in the soil. By contrast, availability of Cd could be predicted from these three variables. Concentrations of both Al and Cd in the shoots of A. capillaris showed no significant relationship with the extractable concentration in the soil. Results are discussed in light of the possible environmental impacts of the chemical restoration techniques.

An entirely new land? Italy’s post-war culture and its fascist past

Scholarship has for decades emphasised the significant continuities in Italian culture and society after Fascism, calling into question the rhetoric of post-war renewal. This essay proposes a reassessment of that rhetoric through the analysis of five key metaphors with which Italian intellectuals represented national recovery after 1945: parenthesis, disease, flood, childhood, and discovery. While the current critical consensus would lead us to expect a cultural conversation characterised by repression and evasion, an analysis of these five post-war metaphors instead reveals both a penetrating re-assessment of Italian culture after Fascism and an earnest adherence to the cause of national re-vitalisation. Foregrounding the inter-relation of Italy’s prospects for change and its continuities with Fascism, these metaphors suggest that post-war Italian intellectuals conceived of their country’s hopes for renewal, as well as its connections to the recent past, in terms that transcend the binary division favoured in many historical accounts.

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.