Validation of a semi-Lagrangian, canonical regression model of climates in the southwestern United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): A local climate model (LCM) has been developed to simulate the modern and 18 ka climate of the southwestern United States. ... LCM solutions indicate summers were about 1°C cooler and winters 11°C cooler at 18 ka. Annual PREC increased 68% at 18 ka, with large increases in spring and fall PREC and diminished summer monsoonal PREC. ... Validation of simulations of 18 ka climate indicate general agreement with proxy estimates of climate for that time. However, the LCM estimates of summer temperatures are about 5 to 10°C higher than estimates from proxy reconstructions.

Modeling the effect of snow on seasonal runoff within the Truckee River drainage basin

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We estimate monthly runoff for a 2-dimensional solution domain containing those areas tributary to Pyramid Lake, Nevada (the Truckee River drainage basin) at a 1-kilometer grid cell spacing. ... To calculate the effect of snow on the hydrologic system, we perform two experiments. In the first we assume that all precipitation falls as rain; in the second we assume that some precipitation falls as snow, thus available water is a combination of rain and snowmelt. We find that considering the effect of snow results in a more accurate representation of mean monthly flow rates, in particular the peak flow during the melt season in the Sierra Nevada. These preliminary results indicate that a relatively simple snow model can improve the representation of Truckee River basin hydrology, significantly reducing errors in modeled seasonal runoff.

Modeling North Pacific temperature and pressure changes from coastal tree-ring chronologies

Climate modeling using coastal tree-ring chronologies has yielded the first summer temperature reconstructions for coastal stations along the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. These land temperature reconstructions are strongly correlated with nearby sea surface temperatures, indicating large-scale ocean-atmospheric influences. Significant progress has also been made in modeling winter land temperatures and sea surface temperatures from coastal and shipboard stations. In addition to temperature, the pressure variability center over the central North Pacific Ocean (PAC), which is related to the strength and location of the Aleutian Low pressure system, could be extended using coastal tree rings.