Approximate knowledge of rationality and correlated equilibria

We extend Aumann's [3] theorem deriving correlated equilibria as a consequence of common priors and common knowledge of rationality by explicitly allowing for non-rational behavior. We replace the assumption of common knowledge of rationality with a substantially weaker notion, joint p-belief of rationality, where agents believe the other agents are rational with probabilities p = (pi)i2I or more. We show that behavior in this case constitutes a constrained correlated equilibrium of a doubled game satisfying certain p-belief constraints and characterize the topological structure of the resulting set of p-rational outcomes. We establish continuity in the parameters p and show that, for p su ciently close to one, the p-rational outcomes are close to the correlated equilibria and, with high probability, supported on strategies that survive the iterated elimination of strictly dominated strategies. Finally, we extend Aumann and Dreze's [4] theorem on rational expectations of interim types to the broader p-rational belief systems, and also discuss the case of non-common priors.

BMP treatment technologies, monitoring needs, and knowledge gaps: status of the knowledge and relevance within the Tahoe Basin

This Technical memorandum fulfills Task 2 for Agreement 03-495 between El Dorado County and the Office of Water Programs at California State University Sacramento and their co-authors, Bachand & Associates and the University of California Tahoe Research Group: 1) a review of current stormwater treatment Best Management Practices (BMP) in the Tahoe Basin and their potential effectiveness in removing fine particles and reducing nutrient concentrations; 2) an assessment of the potential for improving the performance of different types of existing BMPs through retrofitting or better maintenance practices; 3) a review of additional promising treatment technologies not currently in use in the Tahoe Basin; and 4) a list of recommendations to help address the knowledge gaps in BMP design and performance. ... (PDF contains 67 pages)

Networks for Knowledge: Social Media enthuses students of Early Years Education

Networks for Knowledge (n4k Ltd) are a Work Based Learning organisation which specialises in Early Years Education. Training and Development Manager, Elaine Wareing has developed the use of Facebook and Twitter to promote peer learning and interaction beyond the classroom. It also allows trainers to discuss ideas and challengers with a wider group of learners. This has allowed practitioners across a wide geographical area to share their thoughts and ideas together on some of the subjects relating to early years practice.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Knowledge, attitudes and perceptions of management strategies and regulations of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary by commercial fishers, dive operators, and environmental group members: A baseline characterization and 10-year comparison

This research is part of the Socioeconomic Research & Monitoring Program for the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), which was initiated in 1998. In 1995-96, a baseline study on the knowledge, attitudes and perceptions of proposed FKNMS management strategies and regulations of commercial fishers, dive operators and on selected environmental group members was conducted by researchers at the University of Florida and the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Atmospheric and Marine Science (RSMAS). The baseline study was funded by the U.S. Man and the Biosphere Program, and components of the study were published by Florida Sea Grant and in several peer reviewed journals. The study was accepted into the Socioeconomic Research & Monitoring Program at a workshop to design the program in 1998, and workshop participants recommended that the study be replicated every ten years. The 10-year replication was conducted in 2004-05 (commercial fishers) 2006 (dive operators) and 2007 (environmental group members) by the same researchers at RSMAS, while the University of Florida researchers were replaced by Thomas J. Murray & Associates, Inc., which conducted the commercial fishing panels in the FKNMS. The 10-year replication study was funded by NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation Program. The study not only makes 10-year comparisons in the knowledge, attitudes and perceptions of FKNMS management strategies and regulations, but it also establishes new baselines for future monitoring efforts. Things change, and following the principles of “adaptive management”, management has responded with changes in the management plan strategies and regulations. Some of the management strategies and regulations that were being proposed at the time of the baseline 1995-96 study were changed before the management plan and regulations went into effect in July 1997. This was especially true for the main focus of the study which was the various types of marine zones in the draft and final zoning action plan. Some of the zones proposed were changed significantly and subsequently new zones have been created. This study includes 10-year comparisons of socioeconomic/demographic profiles of each user group; sources and usefulness of information; knowledge of purposes of FKNMS zones; perceived beneficiaries of the FKNMS zones; views on FKNMS processes to develop management strategies and regulations; views on FKNMS zone outcomes; views on FKNMS performance; and general support for FKNMS. In addition to new baseline information on FKNMS zones, new baseline information was developed for spatial use, investment and costs-and-earnings for commercial fishers and dive operators, and views on resource conditions for all three user groups. Statistical tests were done to detect significant changes in both the distribution of responses to questions and changes in mean scores for items replicated over the 10-year period. (PDF has 143 pages.)